Hormuz

The world trembles over Hormuz oil while ignoring what feeds 50% of the planet

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Geopolitics has a curious tendency to make us focus our attention on a specific point and not look at everything around us. With the scale of the tension in the Strait of Hormuzall eyes were on crude oil and the price of gasoline; However, experts warn that fertilizers are also in the spotlight. And the reality is that its collapse can cause a lack of food in our crops, since the vast majority depend on it. An invisible engine. Although the world seems to have forgotten about the fertilizers that arrive through the Strait of Hormuz, the reality is that we can affirm that humanity cannot exist without organic chemistry. And it is no wonder, because more than half of the food produced worldwide is available thanks to mineral fertilizers, as the IFDC points out. If we go further, the studies point out that nitrogen fertilizers Synthetics sustain the diet of almost half of the world’s population. And the worst of all is that, without this mineral contribution, global harvests will be directly reduced by half, so we are not talking about a product that improves performance marginally, but rather we are talking about the pillar of a food system that supports 8 billion people. A bottleneck. In this context of absolute dependence, the media focus is paradoxical. International attention and logistical surveillance focus almost exclusively on fossil fuels, ignoring the fact that fertilizers are a highly concentrated industry and closely linked to natural gas. But organizations like UNCTAD and media like EFE they have put figures to disaster by estimating that a third of global maritime fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This means that logistical interruptions in the Persian Gulf directly affect millions of tons of agricultural inputs, which for the UN It is undoubtedly a major impact on global food security. There are no reservations. In recent weeks we have seen how different governments have announced with great fanfare the release of thousands of barrels of oil in national reserves. A strategy that has been built in recent years to be able to cushion this type of geopolitical shocks, but with fertilizers there is no such thing. It has consequences. The analyzes of the experts point out in this case that the interruption of the fertilizer chain has a full impact on the field, since any interruption has a full impact on the bank. Here both the FAO and the World Bank They have been warning for months that the suspension of shipments from the Gulf can skyrocket food prices almost instantly, severely affecting countries that depend on food imports. But the problem is that right now there is a significant lack of infrastructure, since we are seeing that the sector is dominated by a few players such as Russia, China, India and the United States. This, added to the shortage of long-term storage networks, makes us think that the price of food may suffer a large increase in the coming weeks, as well as have a bad harvest of 2026. Measures to alleviate it. The Government of Spain recently approved a new text that, in addition to lower energy-related taxesalso opted to inject money into the primary sector. In this case, direct aid was offered to partially compensate for this increase in fertilizers with the aim of ensuring that the increase was not transferred entirely to the shopping basket. Images | James Baltz Jonathan Cooper In Xataka | You’ve probably never heard of urea. The missiles in Iran are destroying their production, and that will affect your food

We wanted electric cars and solar panels. The Hormuz blockade has returned us to the era of coal and nuclear energy

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The Third Gulf War has caused what decades of climate summits tried to avoid: the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has erased 20% of the world’s supply of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in one fell swoop. Faced with the imminent threat of a large-scale blackout, governments around the world have put their energy transition plans in a drawer. However, to keep the lights on and the economy afloat, the immediate response has been to look back to the past: burn coal by the piece and resurrect nuclear power. The mirage of “bridge fuel.” Asia buys more than 80% of the crude oil and gas that transits through Hormuz, but the problem goes far beyond a simple ship jam. This crisis has destroyed one of the great pillars of the energy transition. As explained The New York TimesLiquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was sold during the last decade as the perfect “bridge fuel”: less polluting than coal, more reliable than intermittent renewables and capable of being transported by sea to any corner. That bridge just blew up. The damage is far from being repaired, and it is estimated that the infrastructure attacked It will take years to operate again. Added to this is that Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a kind of maritime “VIP discotheque”deciding by hand which ships can cross. No one can depend on LNG ships to guarantee their sovereignty. The main problem: live without pantry. But there is a technical factor that has turned this crisis into an immediate catastrophe: lack of storage. Unlike the West, most Asian countries lack underground gas stores, leaving them completely exposed to supply disruptions. While nations like South Korea can last up to 52 days and Japan about three weeks, Taiwan walk on a wire extremely fragile, with a legal security threshold of just 11 or 12 days of reserves. Without a “pantry” to store the LNG, Asia has no room for maneuver: if the ship does not arrive on Monday, the blackout begins on Tuesday. This structural vulnerability is what has forced an unconditional surrender to coal. Coal’s dirty lifesaver. As Jonathan Teubner, the aforementioned analyst, perfectly summarizes by Financial Times: “No coal ship passes through the Strait of Hormuz.” That is the key to everything. Being a cheap, abundant resource that does not depend on the troubled waters of the Middle East, the most polluting mineral has returned with a bang. According to FortuneSouth Korea has removed the 80% operational cap for its coal plants, a decision that has drawn the ire of environmental groups who accuse the government of using “energy security as a pretext.” Thailand, for its part, is restarting plants it had dismantled last year. From Seoul to New Delhi: the dilemma of the powers. Japan, one of the world’s largest gas importers, has also bowed to the evidence, allowing its least efficient coal plants to operate at full capacity for a year. Energy desperation is such that in Japan There are already voices demanding cancel the emissions trading system, calling it a “death sentence” for the coal plants they now need to survive. In India, the situation is critical. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned of a “major challenge” ahead of the summer. To avoid massive blackouts, New Delhi has commanded giants such as Tata Power and Adani Power operate at full capacity, while Bangladesh seeks multi-billion dollar loans. Sam Chua, analyst at Rystad Energy, sums it up in Financial Times: We are not seeing a transition, but a brutal “destruction of gas demand.” Although it is not that simple: the money wall. This coal revival has a glass ceiling. As experts point out in Japan Timesthe banking sector flatly refuses to finance the construction of new coal plants for fear of being left with “stranded assets” (stranded assets) in the face of global climate commitments. That is, countries are squeezing their dirty old infrastructure to the last drop, but they can’t build new ones. Charcoal is the assisted respirator, but not the cure. The atom as a shield: the great redemption of uranium. Panic too has broken atomic taboos. Taiwan, whose government promised a “nuclear-free homeland” in 2016, has announced plans to restart two decommissioned reactors. The Philippines has charted a fast track to atomic energy by 2032, and Vietnam has just struck a deal with Russia to build its first reactors. Uranium is no longer seen as a threat, but rather as the only way to protect the electricity supply against maritime blackmail. The domino effect reaches Europe. What started as an emergency solution in Asia is already infecting the West. The crisis has forced the European Union to break its own historical taboos, admitting that Europe committed a “strategic mistake” by moving away from atomic energy. Brussels has already put 200 million euros on the table to develop Small Modular Reactors (SMR) by 2030. This shift shows a continental fracture: while France entrenches itself protecting its nuclear investment of 300 billion euros and blocks energy interconnections with the Iberian Peninsula, Europe assumes that it cannot guarantee its future solely with the sun and the wind. War rationing in the 21st century. While the plants uproot, the daily suffocation hit the streets. Philippines has declared a “national energy emergency.” In South Korea, the government implores families to take short showers and Samsung has prohibited its employees from driving to work based on the license plate. In Thailand, officials operate with work weeks for four days and they are prohibited from wearing ties in order to raise the temperature of the air conditioning. The collapse is so severe that Thai ambulances have taken to Facebook to beg gas stations to reserve diesel for them to save lives. The collateral damage. The scope of this blockage transcends the electricity bill. If the conflict lasts until June, Bloomberg alert that the barrel could touch $200, a price designed to cause “demand destruction.” This would lock global inflation at a chronic … Read more

Iran has turned Hormuz into the entrance to a VIP nightclub. And Spain enters the guest list and the US stays at the door

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Spain has never been a great military power, but it has been a key player in energy routes. In fact, more than 60% of the gas Its consumption arrives by ship and its refineries are among the most important in southern Europe. Furthermore, its geographical position makes it a natural bridge between Africa, America and the Mediterranean, which means that any change in global energy flows ends up impacting, directly or indirectly, its economy. Iran as oil watchdog. what is happening in Hormuz At this moment it breaks one of the great premises of the global order of recent decades. The naval superiority of the United States was assumed to be overwhelming, backed by a navy that far surpasses the rest of the world in capacity and deployment, and which guaranteed the security of the great sea routes. However, Iran has shown that it is not necessary to dominate the oceans to control a key point. It is enough to have the ability to deny access in a small space, combine asymmetric military pressure and assume the cost of the conflict. The result is that Washington, despite its power, is tied hand and foot and cannot reopen the strait without escalating the war to levels much more dangerous. This turns Iran into a kind of “watchdog” for world oil, capable of deciding who passes and who doesn’tand marks a paradigm shift where the control of strategic bottlenecks outweighs global military supremacy. A tight as a VIP nightclub. Yes, because Iran has transformed the Strait of Hormuz into something more than an energetic chokepoint: has converted it in a business which works in the same way as the door of an exclusive nightclub, that is, a space where not just anyone enters, but only those who are on the list. And there Spain appears among the guests (what have confirmed explicitly) and, of course, the “hostile ships” of the United States and Israel are clearly banned. In other words, they have established a system selective access that redefines control of one of the most critical routes on the planet and turns geopolitics into a direct filter on who can trade and who cannot. Spain and its no to war. Impossible to ignore the government statement Spanish with Iran’s latest move. Pedro Sánchez’s refusal to align with Donald Trump’s strategy broke the dynamic common in Europe. Spain blocked the use from its bases, refused to actively participate in the operation, and turned “no to war” into foreign policy. That movement, which seemed isolated, began to influence other countries. Germany and Italy, for their part, they took distance. And Europe stopped moving as a bloc, showing that there is room to challenge Washington without completely breaking the alliance. The “prize”. It remains to be seen if in the end it will be “poisoned”, but the truth is that this Spanish positioning has had immediate consequences. Iran has shown a special disposition towards Spain, facilitating ship transit linked to their country in a context in which the passage is practically closed for many others. This preferential treatment turns neutrality into an operational advantage tangible, but also introduces a delicate dimension. Spain gains room for maneuver in the short term, but at the cost of exposing itself to criticism and pressure from its allies, critics who may interpret such access as a dangerous concession in a highly polarized environment. The Iranian model that no one saw coming. I was counting this morning the financial times that Tehran is designing a maritime traffic control system much more structured than it might seem. Transit no longer depends solely on navigation, but of a process which combines diplomacy, supervision and, in some cases, high payments to guarantee passage. As? Apparently, the ships must coordinate with the Iranian authorities, undergo verifications and follow specific routes under surveillance. This “handmade” model that few saw coming in the middle of the war introduces a de facto “toll” that transforms the strait into an economic and political tool at the same time, reinforcing Iran’s ability to influence global trade. A global bottleneck. The impact of this change is enormous if we take into account the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. How have we been countingit passes approximately one fifth of world oil, as well as gas and essential raw materials for the global economy. The war has reduced traffic drastically, has increased attacks on ships and has generated a situation of great uncertainty for thousands of sailors. What was once a predictable route has become a high risk spacewith immediate consequences on energy prices and market stability. From highway to guarded corridor. They explained in The Guardian through a visual analysis that the functioning of the strait has also changed in operational terms. The usual routes have been replaced by controlled runners closer to the Iranian coast, where authorities can directly supervise transiting ships. This system allows almost individualized traffic management, reducing the volume of passage and increasing control on each vessel. The result is that Hormuz has stopped behaving as an international maritime highway and begins to function as a regulated access, where each movement depends on prior authorization. Consequences. In the long term, this model opens the door for Iran to obtain important income and consolidate a tool for strategic pressure on world trade. However, also raises legal issues and diplomatic tensions significant, since it questions basic principles of international maritime law. Given this scenario, other countries could accelerate the search for alternatives, such as new energy infrastructure or different trade routes (China and Russia they are already doing it). If this process is consolidated, the result could be a system fragmentation global, where access to key resources depends increasingly on political decisions and less on norms shared for years. Image | eutrophication&hypoxiaNARA, US Navy, اری In Xataka | Israel has found the secret route of the war in Ukraine: it has just bombed the “Uber of shahed drones” between Russia and Iran In Xataka | Iran is … Read more

to open Hormuz the US is no longer going to bomb, but rather something more dangerous

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In the Persian Gulf there is an enclave of just a few square kilometers that, despite its size, became bombed hundreds of times during the war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s while continuing to function as one of the main crude oil outlets in the world. Their history shows that sometimes the smallest places are also the hardest to replace. The war is changing the verb. Over the weekend, the arrival of a second amphibious group US launch into the Gulf, with thousands of Marines on board, is not just another tactical move but rather a sign that the war is possibly coming to a head. a new phase: to open the Strait of Hormuz, Washington is no longer thinking only of bombing, but of doing something much more dangerous, taking the key territory. How have we been countingKharg, the small island off the Iranian coast, concentrated near the 90% of exports of the country’s oil and has become the true center of gravity of the conflict, not because it is large or defensible, but because whoever controls it control the flow economy that sustains the regime. After weeks of remote attacks, the accelerated dispatch of amphibious forces indicates that the United States is preparing the option that involves boots on the ground, a qualitative leap that transforms an air campaign into a potential occupation operation. The plan is not new, it is from 40 years ago. I remembered the financial times this morning that what today seems like an improvised escalation actually has much deeper roots, because the idea of ​​taking Kharg is not new, but is part of a script that Trump had already outlined in the eightieswhen he openly argued that the United States should directly hit Iranian oil assets to force concessions. So talked about “go and take the island” as a response to any challenge in the Gulf, and four decades later that same scheme (ultimatum, economic pressure and decisive use of force) reappears almost no changes. The difference is that now it is not campaign rhetoric, but a very real option on the table, turning an old strategic intuition into an operational plan with global implications. The economic switch of war. The logic behind this move seems quite obvious: Iran has managed resist bombing and, at the same time, maintain its crude oil exports while blocking those of its rivals, turning the closure of Hormuz into an economic weapon that puts pressure on the rest of the world. From that perspective, for the United States, taking Kharg would break that dynamic by cutting off Tehran’s main source of income and striking back in the same area, the economic one, where Iran is trying to win the war. In other words, it is not so much about destroying as to control and taketo use the island as a negotiating lever to force the reopening of the strait and, ultimately, force the regime to accept imposed conditions from outside. The impossible operation. On paper, the capture of the island could be relatively fastsupported by previous attacks and the deployment of amphibious units capable of assaulting key points such as the airport and port facilities. However, the difficulty is not in conquering Kharg, but rather in holding it: its proximity to the Iranian coast makes it an exposed target to missiles, drones and constant attacks, while American supply lines would be vulnerable in an environment saturated with asymmetric threats. That is to say, the scenario looks less like the traditional blitzkrieg campaigns of the Americans and more like a war of attritionwhere holding a small island can become a large-scale strategic problem. The risk of escalation without return. Most analysts agree on the same diagnosis: the real danger is not only military, but political and economic. Such an assault operation would imply a direct escalation against the economic heart of Iran, with unforeseeable consequences: from regional attacks to energy infrastructures (Iran, in fact, has already warned with this) to a prolonged rise in oil prices and increasing pressure on the United States to exit the conflict. Furthermore, it must be taken into account that there is no guarantee that taking the island will force Tehran to give in. In fact, it could, on the contrary, further harden its stance and widen the conflict. In this unstable balance, Kharg Island has ceased to be just a military objective and has become a strategic bet high risk for Washington: a move that could change the course of the war… or trap it in an even more dangerous phase. Image | USN In Xataka | We wonder if it is safe to fly now that there are more drones than Ryanair planes: the answer is an Ockham’s razor In Xataka | The weapon to liberate Hormuz has fled 6,000 km from the war. And that just means the US is preparing for what comes next.

Spain has the cheapest wholesale energy in Europe in the midst of the Hormuz crisis

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The outbreak of war in Iran on February 28 and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have plunged the world, overnight, into an energy crisis of alarming proportions. In the midst of this global chaos, a European country is resisting the challenge much better than its neighbors: Spain. A shield in front of the market. To understand why electricity in Spain has not become more expensive at the same rate as in the rest of the continent, it is essential to look at how the electricity market works. The European system is “marginalist”meaning that the most expensive technology needed to meet the demand for a given day (usually gas) is what dictates the final price of all electricity. The day after the start of the conflict in the Middle East, the price of gas rose by 55%, according to Euronews. However, the impact on Spanish bills is being cushioned, thanks to the fact that the share of clean energy in the country’s generation mix already exceeds 60%. Since 2019, Spain has added more than 40 GW of renewable capacity, doubling its wind and solar farms. Added to this structural deployment is a key seasonal factor: a solid spring “hydraulic cushion”, with the reservoirs located at 82.6% of their capacity. The data of the Iberian exception. The x-ray of the European wholesale markets, reflected in the records of Energy-chartsconfirms this gap in a very visual way: The Spanish daytime miracle: Spain’s graphics during February and March They show almost absolute dominance of renewable generation and hydraulic pumping. This massive injection sinks prices from 11:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., becoming free, or even registering negative prices, because many plants find it more profitable to bid at zero price than to assume the very high costs of stopping and restarting their machines. The fossil condemnation of Germany and Italy: The European contrast is devastating and explains the asymmetric impact of the war. German market data for the same period reveal a heavy dependence on non-renewable sources, illustrated by a thick gray strip of fossil generation that sustains their system. The case of Italy is even more illustrative about the dangers of depending on foreign gas: its graphs show a huge constant load of non-renewable generation, which condemns the transalpine country to maintain a systematically high and flat price curve throughout the day. The “green shield” night fissure: However, we are not invulnerable. As analyst Antonio Aceituno, from the consulting firm Tempos Energía, warns, in Europa Pressthe Spanish balance is broken when evening falls. When the sun disappears, gas combined cycles begin to cover demand, returning tension to prices. This explains why in March the monthly average It woke up abruptly to 64.05 euros/MWh, with nighttime peaks of up to 247.15 euros/MWh. It is empirical proof that, no massive batteries to save the sunat eight in the afternoon we are still at the mercy of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, time is against us. Antonio The Tempos Energía analyst warns that our precious “hydraulic shield” could begin to give way at the beginning of summer if the conflict becomes entrenched. In the worst case scenario, the June bill could jump above 100 euros per MWh, reaching the feared 120 euros between July and August. A halfway transition. The current energy crisis has left an irrefutable lesson: renewables are our best social shield. The deployment of recent years has prevented Spain from suffering the same financial drowning as its neighbors. As energy financing expert Gerard Reid reflects, in Euronewsit is preferable to depend on China to import a solar panel once every 25 years, than to depend on oil and gas from the Persian Gulf every day. But the transition is painfully incomplete. As long as lack of storage forces us to turn on gas plants when the sun sets, our pockets will continue to be hostage to global volatility. Whether due to a military drone over the Strait of Hormuz or due to political retaliation in the Oval Office, Spain’s true energy independence will not come until we are able to massively save the sun and wind that we have left over. Image | Photo by Alexis Presa on Unsplash and Photo by Jakub Zerdzicki on Unsplash Xataka | Skyscrapers are full of glass, so some Spanish researchers have had an idea: let them serve as “solar panels”

One trick is unblocking the passage of ships in Hormuz without the need for drones or escorts. And the US is not going to be amused

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In 2023, some of the world’s largest oil tankers have already begun sailing with transponders off in risk areas to avoid being tracked, a known practice like “dark shipping” which makes it difficult to know what cargo they are transporting and where they are going. In scenarios of maximum tension, these opaque movements tend to multiply and anticipate deeper changes in how it circulates really the energy for the world. The new rules. Although it may seem like it, in reality, the Strait of Hormuz is not formally closed, but in practice it has stopped be a neutral space to become a conditional passage through Iran, where transit depends on implicit authorizations and specific routes under its control. In the midst of attacks, mines and a constant threat that has paralyzed hundreds of ships, some oil tankers have managed to cross a simple tactic: follow trajectories close to the Iranian coast, avoiding the usual corridors and suggesting the existence of a selective passage system that redefines who can circulate and under what conditions. Tehran’s invisible filter. The ships that manage to cross the strait do not do so by chance, but within a pattern increasingly clear: negotiated transit, “acceptable” flags and destinations aligned with countries that do not directly participate in the conflict or without directly “friends.” There it appears mainly India and China along with neutral actors who have begun to secure shipments through diplomatic contacts, while ships linked to the West remain outside or directly exposed. This model allows Iran to maintain a minimum flow of energy that avoids a total collapse of the market, but at the same time turns the passage into a tool of geopolitical pressure, where each transit is a concession and not a right. Minimum flow with global impact. Although the number of ships that manage to cross is still a fraction of the usual, that small trickle is enough to influence prices energy and avoid further escalation, especially towards Asia. That said, the bottleneck is enormous, with hundreds of ships waiting and logistics extremely limited in a passage that already functions as a two-lane highway. The constant threat of drones, mines or specific attacks maintains the risk at maximum levels and deters the majority of operators, consolidating a system where the exception, and not the normality, sets the pace of commerce. China in the lead. In this context, China emerges as one of the main beneficiaries of this selective system, absorbing much of the crude oil that manages to get out of the Gulf and using its ambiguous position to keep open supply lines that others cannot guarantee. In other words, the appearance of ships with Chinese ties among the few that cross the strait reinforces the idea that access to Hormuz no longer depends only on geography, but rather on political alignment, consolidating a transit network where Beijing gains margin while other actors lose access. The Eurasian plan B. In parallel, China and Russia are accelerating construction of structural alternatives to vulnerable routes such as Hormuz, promoting its own logistics corridors that include lto Arctic Route and terrestrial networks across Eurasia. With investments in ports, icebreaking vessels and independent logistics systems, both countries seek to reduce their exposure to bottlenecks controlled by third parties and create a commercial architecture more resilient and politically aligned. This strategy not only responds to the current crisis, but also aims at a lasting reorganization of global trade. An uncomfortable scenario for the United States. There is no doubt, the combination of a partially narrow controlled by Iranan energy flow that is redirected towards Asia and development of alternative routes Outside of Western influence, it sets up an increasingly unfavorable scenario for the United States. As Washington tries to respond with naval escorts and pressure international (although at the last minute started again back saying that it does not need help from the allies), its capacity to guarantee free transit is limited compared to a system where a mine or a drone is enough to paralyze everything. The result is a silent but profound change: the control of energy flows begins to depend less on direct military force and more of political and logistical networks that escape US control. Image | x In Xataka | The war with Iran is leading the US to a plan B that no one imagined: avoiding the nuclear objective at all costs In Xataka | The US nuclear supercarrier has a problem: its marines are sleeping on the ground in the middle of the war with Iran

This is how Russia has become the great winner of the Hormuz crisis

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On Thursday evening, March 12, the Swedish Coast Guard boarded the tanker Sea Owl I south of Trelleborg, off the coast of Sweden. The next day, the authorities They arrested their captainof Russian nationality, and on Sunday a court ordered his formal arrest for using allegedly false documents to operate the ship. This 228-meter-long ship sails under suspicion of using a false flag, in this case from Comoros, and is on the European Union sanctions list. As explained The Moscow TimesAlthough the ship, which set sail from Brazil, claimed to be heading to Estonia, the Swedish Coast Guard believes its actual destination was the Russian port of Primorsk. This is one more link in the “shadow fleet” that Moscow uses to evade sanctions. In fact, just a few days before, Sweden had seized another ship, the cargo ship Caffasuspected of transporting stolen Ukrainian grain. A lethal bottleneck. But while the West tightens the noose in the icy Baltic, the true collapse looms in the south. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, turned into an impassable “digital fog” by the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, has suffocated the world energy market. According to The New York TimesIndia—highly dependent on imports from the Middle East—had been in agony for months after Donald Trump’s administration imposed punitive tariffs to force it to stop buying Russian crude. Without quick access to crude oil from the Persian Gulf and with the US ban on Moscow, the Asian giant was looking into the abyss. Indian state refineries were forced to close entire processing units due to the simple physical shortage of oil. Washington’s retreat. Faced with Iran’s direct threat to shoot up the barrel of Brent at 200 dollarsthe United States has had no choice but to give in. The US Treasury Department has issued a temporary emergency waiver. This license, valid for 30 days, allows India and other countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea. Although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent justified the measure by stating that it seeks to stabilize world prices and that it will not bring “significant financial benefits” to the Kremlin, the reality of the markets dictates a very different ruling. Russia makes money (and legally). Indeed, the main beneficiary of this crisis is the Kremlin, and it is also doing so completely legally in the eyes of Washington. According to data from Argus Media collected by Bloomberg, Prices for Russian Ural crude oil delivered to India’s west coast have hit a record high of $98.93 per barrel. This historic rebound has occurred precisely after the United States expanded its permission to buy Russian crude oil in the midst of the upward spiral caused by the war in the Middle East. The humiliating discount that Russia was forced to apply has vanished, reducing it to just $4.80 per barrel compared to the global Brent index. At the diplomatic level, Moscow also gains muscle. According to the Anadolu Agencythe foreign ministers of Russia and India are already talking to use alternative forums to the West, such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), to mediate the de-escalation of the Middle East. The great irony of international sanctions. On the one hand, Sweden spends police resources raiding Russian ghost ships in the frigid Baltic Sea. On the other hand, offices in Washington are forced to urgently legalize the purchase of crude oil from Moscow to avoid the economic collapse of India and a global recession. In the end, geopolitics always ends up surrendering to the laws of thermodynamics and infrastructure: the world needs physical energy and, faced with the closure of Hormuz, the West has had to swallow and pay in gold price for the oil of the same country it was trying to suffocate. Image | Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash Xataka | The big winner of the Hormuz blockade is the country that the West has tried to suffocate for years: Russia

The US has asked all its allies in Hormuz for help. The answer he received was anticipated by Spain before anyone else: “no”

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In 1988, during the call “tanker war” between Iran and Iraq, a single low-cost naval device managed to seriously damage to a state-of-the-art American frigate in the Persian Gulf. That crisis left an uncomfortable lesson for the great powers: in the busiest maritime straits on the planet, a handful of well-placed threats are enough to put entire fleets in check and alter the balance of the world economy. A global appeal. Two weeks after the start of the war against Iran, the United States finds itself facing a paradox most disturbing. Despite the massive bombings against Iranian military installations and the blows against its strategic infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz (the energy artery through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes) still blocked for much of the maritime traffic. The White House has responded with a unusual request: ask other powers to send warships to escort trade and reopen the passage. In fact, Trump’s call has not only been directed at traditional allies such as the United Kingdom or France, but also at rival powers. like china. This movement reflects, once again, an increasingly evident reality: the war is much more difficult to end than Washington expected. Reluctant allies. The international response has been prudent when not directly evasive. Spain has been the clearestbut the United Kingdom has insisted that the priority should be reduce escalation military rather than expanding naval deployment. For its part, Japan has recalled that its pacifist constitution limits participation in armed conflicts. South Korea has limited itself to promise consultations with Washington, while France has suggested that could participate in naval escorts, but only if the conflict is stabilized first. In other words, the allies recognize the strategic problem of the strait, but none seems willing to assume the political and military cost of fully entering the war. A notice to NATO. The frustration of the White House has ended up translating into a very direct message through a interview in Financial Times. Trump has publicly warned that NATO could face to a “very bad future” if its allies do not help the United States reopen the strait. The president’s argument is simple: Europe depends on the oil that passes through Hormuz and should help protect that route. In its vision of things, Washington has supported its allies in crises such as the war in Ukraine and now expect reciprocity. The problem is that this pressure comes at a time when many European governments fear being dragged into a military escalation with unforeseeable consequences. Appeal to China. In the face of Western coldness, the American appeal surprisingly included also to Beijing. China buys large quantities of Iranian oil and depends largely on the energy flow that passes through Hormuz. For Washington, this dependence could turn China into an actor interested in stabilizing the area. However, the maneuver has a complex diplomatic background: The United States is asking for help to resolve a war that it itself has started, and it is doing so even from a power with which it maintains a global strategic rivalry. Support for Iran. And while Washington seeks support from the most unexpected places, Tehran has responded proving that it is not isolated. The Iranian government has confirmed that maintains political, economic and even military cooperation with Russia and China. The relationship with Moscow has narrowed especially since the Ukraine war, in which Russia has used Iranian drones as part of its arsenal. With Beijing, the link is supported above all in energy trade and in long-term economic agreements. For Iran, this support does not necessarily imply direct intervention, but it does reinforce its position in the face of Western pressure. The strategic letter. we have been counting. Control of the Strait of Hormuz has become the main instrument of Iranian pressure. Tehran maintains that the passage is not closed to world trade, but only to the ships of the United States, Israel and their direct allies. This narrative seeks to present the situation as a selective retaliation and not as a global blockade. At the same time, it allows Iran use the threat on energy trafficking as a tool to force other countries to become diplomatically involved in the conflict. Economic war underway. Meanwhile, the impact on energy markets is already visible. The price of oil has exceeded $100 per barrel and several countries fear that the rise in energy prices will cause new inflationary tensions. For Asian economies, especially dependent on Gulf crude oil, the blockade represents a direct risk to their growth. That economic pressure is part of the Iranian strategic calculation: turn the conflict into a global problem that forces other powers to pressure Washington to find a solution. Late help. In that context, the implicit response of Iran is quite clear. In his view, the war has entered a phase in which calls for international cooperation no longer change the balance of the conflict. US attacks on strategic targets like the oil island of Kharg They have raised the tension to a level that makes any rapid retreat difficult. In other words, if Washington now seeks external support to close the war, Tehran interprets that it does so when the opportunity to avoid that escalation it’s already happened. An unexpected script. The final paradox begins to become increasingly evident, because the United States insists that has seriously weakened to Iran and that it can reopen the strait “one way or another”, but at the same time it is requesting international help to do it. This contradiction reveals that keeping Hormuz open under constant threat of mines, drones and missiles requires military coordination much larger than expected. Thus, the war that began as an air campaign fast has become a strategic challenge that involves (or seeks to involve) the entire international system. An increasingly complex board. The result is a scenario in which traditional alliances are shown extremely cautiousthe rival powers support Iran and the world economy is beginning to feel the impact of the … Read more

Asia is hoarding all the world’s LNG due to Hormuz panic

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In global energy markets, alarm bells do not always ring loudly; Sometimes all you have to do is watch where the boats are sailing. Right now, the canary in the mine of the looming crisis is the frenzy of Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) buyers. As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, Asia’s major powers are preparing for supply disruptions that could last months. The prolonged paralysis at the world’s largest export plant is stifling global supply and skyrocketing prices. As Dai Jiaquan explainschief economist at the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, companies should prepare “contingency plans” for a two- to four-month disruption. Far from expecting a quick resolution to the attacks between the United States, Israel and Iran, Asia is sweeping up all available gas. The Qatar blackout and the buying fever. The origin of this panic has exact coordinates: the Strait of Hormuz. The trigger was an attack with Iranian drones that hit the strategic facilities of Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, forcing the state company QatarEnergy to cease production. The impact is massive: Qatar supplies 20% of the world’s LNG and, without Hormuz, there is no alternative route. According to the consulting firm AMEthis stoppage removes 1.5 million tons of gas from the global market every week. Added to this is an unprecedented logistical blockade with some 150 ships paralyzed in the area. Faced with this abyss, purchases have skyrocketed. According to BloombergTaiwan has already fully secured its supply for March and April, and is now actively purchasing to cover the month of May. Bangladesh managed to secure shipments for April and is already evaluating purchases from May onwards. For their part, Thailand and South Korea seek to ensure immediate deliveries, while in India, the company Gail India Ltd. barely managed to reserve a shipment in March after several failed attempts. Europe vs. Asia. What is coming is a direct trade war: Europe and Asia fighting for the same gas. According to Financial Timesthe contest is a chilling reminder of the crisis of 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To this battle, Europe arrives with its defenses low: its gas storages are barely 30% because companies did not fill them due to high future prices, a phenomenon known as backwardation. Furthermore, Spain, despite having regasification plants, cannot act as a total lifeline for the continent due to its lack of interconnections through the Pyrenees. Historically, Asia consumes more gas in summer due to air conditioners, creating a desperate urgency that is already reflected in prices. As explained BloombergLNG spot prices in Asia are around $18 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). This represents an 80% increase in price compared to pre-conflict levels, despite having fallen from a recent peak of $25. The Asian benchmark JKM index doubled to $24.80. In Europe, the reaction was one of panic: the TTF benchmark index jumped sharply from below 40 euros to almost 47.5 euros, marking an increase of 55% in recent days. In fact, it is projected that a 90-day closure in Hormuz would raise the TTF to €92/MWh. And this is where the alarms go off for the real economy, As the report explains Kpler, The profitability threshold for intensive European industry (chemicals, fertilizers or ceramics) is usually between €50 and €60/MWh. If prices stagnate there, we could see a new wave of factory closures and a resurgence of inflation. Change of course at sea. According to monitoring data collected by Bloombergat least nine shipments bound for Europe have been redirected to Asia since the fighting began. Atlantic ships like the Clean Mistraloriginally destined for Spain, or the BW Brusselswhich was going to France, have redirected their compasses towards the Pacific in the face of lucrative Asian offers. This maritime chaos is not exclusive to gas. In the oil sector, about 30 giant supertankers They crowd off the Saudi coast of Yanbu in the Red Sea to collect crude oil transported by land, in a desperate attempt to avoid the Iranian blockade. Vulnerabilities and “buffers”. Not all countries face this crisis with the same weapons. According to an analysis of A.M.E.Taiwan is the most exposed and vulnerable player: Qatar and the United Arab Emirates provided it with 35% of its imports in 2025, and after the closure of its nuclear park, it has almost no options to use other fuels. South Asia is also on the line. The report of Kpler highlights that Qatar and the Emirates account for 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports, 72% of Bangladesh’s and 53% of India’s. However, powers such as China and Japan breathe a little easier. According to Vortexa analyst Ken Lee cited by oil priceBeijing and Tokyo’s exposure to Qatari LNG is just 6% and 5% of their gas mix, respectively. Furthermore, Japan has a good reserve inventory and the restart of its nuclear plants gives it a strategic “cushion.” Asia as a global buffer. In the end, the market will rebalance, but the pain will be uneven. Faced with the impossibility of paying stratospheric prices, very price-sensitive countries such as Pakistan or Bangladesh will have to resort to demand destruction, industrial cuts or return to burning coal. According to AMEJapan and South Korea will seek to replace between 70% and 90% of Qatar’s lost volumes in the spot market, while China, confident in its inventories, will only seek to cover 50%. As pointed out KplerSouth Asia and its industry will operate as the “buffer” (shock absorb) of this crisis. By cutting their own consumption due to not being able to pay, they will leave gas available for the Asian and European giants, but at the cost of maintaining relentless upward pressure that will make the entire world’s energy bill more expensive in the coming months. Image | Photo by Chris Pagan on Unsplash Xataka | The $200 per barrel scenario: when geography suffocates the world economy

The US Navy already knows what is going to happen to the planet. The mission to open Hormuz is the closest thing to a suicide operation

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In the world there are only a dozen maritime passages capable of altering the global economy if they are blocked. Some are so narrow that, at certain points, they barely exceed 30 kilometers wide. However, millions of barrels of oil, huge ships of liquefied natural gas and a good part of the planet’s energy trade circulate through them every day. When one of those places goes into crisisthe impact it doesn’t take long to feel in markets, governments and homes around the world. And the Strait of Hormuz points to a unprecedented scenario. The impossible mission. Yes, the Strait of Hormuz has become the point most dangerous on the planet for global energy trade. Some 20 million barrels of oil daily (around 20% of global consumption) in addition to one fifth of liquefied natural gas that supplies numerous countries. The conflict with Iran has transformed that corridor into a war zone where attacks on oil tankers, drones, missiles and sabotage have paralyzed much of the traffic. But what is most revealing is not only the violence of the incidents, but Washington’s reaction: even the world’s largest naval power just recognized which is not prepared to escort oil tankers through the area. That delay is a clear sign of the magnitude of the problem, because if the US Navy needs weeks to organize convoys, and that is exactly the words they have usedthe implicit message for the markets is that the Gulf energy blockade may last much longer than many imagined. Convoys under fire. To understand it we must imagine the scenario. The idea of ​​accompanying oil tankers with warships seems, on paper, a direct solution. In practice, it is one of the riskiest missions that a modern navy can face. The convoys would need frigates and destroyers protecting the freighters while specialized units They search for mines and drones in an environment saturated with threats. The ships would be exposed to anti-ship missiles launched from mobile trucks off the Iranian coast, swarms of explosive speedboats, kamikaze drones and possible mines hidden in the strait. To completely eliminate these threats, some analysts they even propose something Washington would prefer to avoid: a ground operation to control the Iranian coast that dominates the sea passage. This scenario explains why military planners speak of a “very complicated” situation: reopening the strait does not depend only on naval superiority, but on neutralizing an entire ecosystem of asymmetric warfare. Iranian missile boat moments before being attacked The cheapest weapon to paralyze commerce. And among all the threats, one stands out for its effectiveness: naval mines. We are talking about simple, cheap and extremely disruptive weapons that can transform a maritime corridor in a death trap. Even a few mines in a narrow spot are enough to paralyze traffic, because shipping companies and their insurers simply refuse to take the risk. Iran has several types of these devices, from floating mines to models anchored to the seabed capable of detonating charges of more than one hundred kilos of explosives upon contact. Not only that. You can also display them in ways difficult to detect: from small boats camouflaged as fishing boats or by divers who attach them to the hull of the ships. History, in fact, has already demonstrated his powerbecause mines have damaged more American ships than any other weapon naval since World War II. Hence its true effect is not to sink ships, but to sow enough fear to block traffic. Map with the strategic location of the Strait of Hormuz The invisible lock. The paradox of this type of war is that it is not necessary to mine the entire strait to close it. In reality, it is enough the simple suspicion. The reason is simple: in such a narrow channel, the presence of a few mines requires inspection every meter of water with sonar, underwater drones and specialized ships. A slow and dangerous process, especially if the enemy continues to lay new mines or attack demining units. Plus: recent experience in the black sea has shown that even uncertainty about their presence can keep commercial ships away for months. And in the Persian Gulf the same thing happens: Thousands of ships wait for instructions while the risk of mines, missiles or drones turns each voyage into a gamble. Oil as a geopolitical hostage. There is no doubt, all this gives Iran a strategic power of large dimensions. Before the conflict, about a fifth of the world’s oil passed through Hormuz daily. With this altered flow, energy prices react immediately and governments release strategic reserves to contain the impact. The strait thus becomes a colossal geopolitical lever: Even if the war were to end soon, something that is currently a utopia, an Iranian regime still capable of launching drones, missiles or mines could keep threatening maritime traffic when it suits you. That means oil and gas can stay hostage of Gulf stability for a long time, something that worries both the markets and Washington’s regional allies. There is no easy way out. Under this scenario, the dilemma For the United States it is evident. Stopping the war too soon could leave intact Iran’s ability to blockade the strait and put pressure on global energy markets. Continuing it could require a major climbincluding land operations or prolonged naval campaigns to ensure the security of the sea passage. Meanwhile, the conflict has already demonstrated something truly disturbing: even in the face of a military power like the United States, Iran retains enough tools to disrupt the global energy system. That is why the real alarm signal is not only the closure of Hormuz, but the realization that opening it may be much more difficult (and expensive) than many thought at the beginning of the war. Image | US NAVY, Oils & Fats international In Xataka | China has just found a hole in the US’s quietest weapon: an algorithm has hacked its B-2s in Iran In Xataka | The great paradox of war: the … Read more

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