bomb

bomb southern Gaza

by

After two long years of war, with 67,000 dead, massive displacements and more than 160,000 injured, according to the calculations managed by the UN itself, Gaza sees the light at the end of the tunnel. It’s not the first timebut this time the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has generated enthusiasm among the local population and congratulations, among others, from Donald Trump. Israel has already begun to withdraw its troops towards the agreed line, but not before having made a move. Which? Launch a bombardment on Khan Younis, south of the Strip, and Gaza City, only a few hours later that the Government gave its OK to the pact. What has happened? That Gaza sees the light closer at the end of the long tunnel it entered two years agowhen Israel launched a broad military offensive on the Strip in response to Hamas attacks. Both parties have ratified an agreement promoted by Donald Trump that materialized on Thursday in Sharm el Sheikh with the participation of Qatari, Egyptian and Turkish mediators. Only a few hours later, early on Friday, the agreement received the support of the Israeli Government, which has supported him despite the votes against the far-right formations. What exactly did they agree on? What they have agreed is the first phase of the plan promoted by Trump in Gaza, which in practice implies “the immediate end of the war”, but maintains some important challenges on the horizon, such as the disarmament of Hamas or the creation of a technocratic government. For now, in words of the American president, the agreement contemplates that “ALL (sic) hostages will be released very soon and Israel will withdraw troops to an agreed line” with a view to achieving “a solid, lasting and eternal peace.” Now the road map contemplates that in 24 hours a ceasefire will come into force and the Israeli troops will withdraw to a line from which they will continue to maintain control of the 53% of the Strip. During the offensive it is estimated that he dominated more than 80%. After 72 hours after the end of the attacks, it will be Hamas’s turn, which will have to release the 20 hostages it still keeps alive. Later he will hand over the deceased. Israel will also release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees in Gaza. Another important point is the arrival of humanitarian aid. How did the pact start? With bittersweet flavor. The Gazans have received the agreement with joy (and relief) after two years of war during which the Israeli offensive has resulted in 67,000 deadsome 170,000 injured, forced displacement and famine in Gaza recognized by the United Nations. However, the last few hours have left both positive and negative news. Among the first (the hopeful ones) is the start of withdrawal of Israel, which today has begun to move its troops to the agreed line. Among the second (the bad ones or at the very least shocking) is the decision that the Hebrew Government adopted almost at the same time that it approved Trump’s partial plan: last morning its army bombed Khan Yunis, in the south of the Strip, and Gaza City (north), according to inform the Palestinian agency Wafa. What were the attacks like? Air and artillery. Furthermore, they were carried out after the Israeli Government had given the green light to the ceasefire plan, again according to the information revealed by the Wafa agency and Filastin. Despite the withdrawal, troops remain stationed in certain military areas, such as the Netzarim Corridor, and the Gaza Civil Defense has asked Gazans to be cautious. His advice is “not to approach or return to the areas where the occupation forces were present” until the departure of the Israeli army is made official. The message is directed above all to the border areas of Gaza City. And now what? It is not the first ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. At the beginning of this year both parties already reached a pact which ended up being frustrated months later, in marchwhen Israel launched deadly attacks in Gaza and Hamas accused Benjamin Netanyahu of having acted “unilaterally.” Despite the challenges that still lie ahead, the new pact has generated expectation both between Palestinians and Israelis and between the authorities global. Does context matter? Yes. The pact also comes in the midst of growing pressure regarding Israeli action in Gaza and the involvement of Donald Trump, who just yesterday, hours before the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize was announced, boasted having brokered the end of eight wars. The award has finally gone to Maria Corina Machadoleader of the Venezuelan opposition. “Hope returns to us to stop the death, murders, destruction and displacement,” recognized yesterday eah The Country Abu Gamea, a 67-year-old Gazan. Images | Wikipedia (Jaber Jehad Badwan) In Xataka | Israel has decided that an area of ​​international waters is its own. And the international community is not preventing it

The most emblematic trucks in the US are multiplying in Russia. And they are using them to bomb Ukraine

by

Last week, a documentary broadcast on the television channel of the Russian Army, Zvezda, revealed the Greater Russian Drones Factory fighting. In the images not only We saw hundreds of drones Geran-2 black finished, all in a row within the secret installation. We also saw that the factory had its own test field where the devices were mounted on trucks that serve as a shuttle. The model was surprising. Made in USA trucks. A Kyiv Independent Research He has revealed a mechanism for evasion of sanctions that allows Russia to have American pickup trucks, specifically the successful RAM 1500 models TRXdespite the prohibition of exporting them after the large -scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The finding is particularly alarming because after the Zvezda documentary It has been verified that Kamikaze drones They are launched from these modified RAM 1500 models. According to the mediumalthough Ukraine points out that fixed catapults are more reliable for takeoff, the simple appearance of these vehicles in official propaganda demonstrates the use of western goods in Russian military machinery. Evasion of sanctions. After the imposition of sanctions, Stellantis (owner of the RAM brand) interrupted in 2022 All export to Russia. However, since then At least 130 RAM 1500 They have entered the country through indirect routes. Here are several companies based in the Arab Emirates, such as Automax Motors Fze, Fine Cars Eaeu-Fze or Mehrzad Post & Shipping, who have acted as intermediariesre -exporting dozens of vehicles to private Russian companies in San Petersburg and Moscow. This technique of “Transhipment”It is a classic evasion method, where goods first travel to a non -sanctioning country before being sent to Russia. In social networkssome of these firms have openly presumed shipments for Russia, which shows the laxity of control in certain Gulf markets. The direct route from the USA. But there is something more serious. It was discovered that Arivir Corpa company based in Virginia, sold at least eight RAM 1500 TRX manufactured in 2023 directly to the Russian subsidiary Arivir Rus, owned by a Russian citizen. According to filtered customs documents, the procedure It was systematic: The American company acquired vehicles in concessionaires, reluctant their Russian counterpart and managed shipping. No doubt, this trade clearly violates US export restrictions unless there was A special licensewhich is almost impossible to obtain in this context. Neither Arivir Corp nor the other firms contacted responded to research consultations. Instead, the Stellantis group has given explanations. The group remember that “has stopped all sales of vehicles in Russia and suspended its manufacturing operations in that country” from 2022. And he adds that “contractually prohibits all distribution channels sending vehicles to Russia.” Strategic implications. The experts consulted By ki they underline That any export of this type without a license constitutes a violation of the export controls of the United States, regardless of the location of the intermediary. In addition, the companies involved could face to secondary sanctions that would affect their ability to operate in the international market. For Ukraine, the situation reveals both the insufficiency of sanctions compliance mechanisms and the need for Western manufacturers to reinforce YOUR CONTROL SYSTEMS of customers and distributors. What are apparently simple trucks becomes a war resource capable of integrating into the Attack infrastructure Russian, adding another layer of complexity to the international effort to weaken Moscow’s military capacity. Image | Zvezda In Xataka | We already know what Russia’s trick is to multiply its drones: it is called “cooling units” and comes direct from China In Xataka | The Russian threat has activated the “Nordic model” in Germany. The Plan: Recruit 40,000 adolescents a year in the Army

The US prepares to bomb the border of Mexico with sterile flies. It will not use genetic engineering, but 1950 technology

by

The United States wants to stop the Cochliomyia hominivorax, A fly that when it is in the larval phase causes a parasitic disease that mainly affects cattle (although it can also affect humans). A few days ago we talked about the plan to end her: launch millions of sterile flies to stop their expansion. The funny thing is that they are not going to do it using Genomic editionbut for this they will use a technology ago. X -rays and planes. The objective of this initiative is to stop the expansion of this plague and for this what they are going to do is sterilize millions of flies. As? With A technology that has been using since the 70s To combat this plague: X -rays. After raising the larvae and that they transform into pupae, they are placed inside a metal cylinder that is introduced into a gamma irradiation chamber with a dose of between 40 and 65 gray, enough to reach 95% sterility without compromising their survival. The container (left) that is introduced into the irradiation chamber (right). Fountain Once sterilized, you have to reach the affected areas, in this case the southern Texas and Mexico. To ensure that they arrive in the appropriate phase, the pupae remain at 10 degrees so that their metamorphosis to adults slows down. They are released from airplanes and, when the temperature rises, sterile males emerge. Why not transgenic flies? Sterilization of insects by radiation has decades of proven efficacy. Genetic modification is potentially cheaper and efficientbut it is still in an experimental phase and is not ready for mass production. There is also the issue of regulation, more complicated in this case because it requires approvals from two countries: the United States and Mexico. The current legal framework under which sterile insects are released does not contemplate genetic modification and achieve approval I could take years and cost millions of dollars. The threat. The one known as “Cattle Barrenter” is a devastating species, especially for cattle. The females deposit their eggs in wounds and mucous animals and, when hatching, the larvae begin to feed on the meat, causing injuries that become mortal. According to the head of the American Association of Veterinary Medicine, They can kill a 450 kilos cow in two weeks. This pest affects mainly to countries in South America, but It is not the first time that the United States has to deal with it; In 1966 they already eradicated it and in 2017 there was a small outbreak in the Florida Keys. There is a hurry. Although the reduction of transgenic technique costs sounds attractive, the reality is that there is no time to lose. The boreride worm has reappeared in southern Mexico and, although it has not been detected near the border, from the United States They don’t want to take risks. In addition to the release of sterile flies, other measures will also take controls in the transfer of animals, collaborate with Mexico to improve surveillance and provide traps to catch larvae. Image | PSUBRATY in Pixabay In Xataka | Every week, millions of flies are released on the Valencia Community and, although it does not seem like it, it is a sensational idea

In 1950 two scientists wondered if possible a nuclear bomb of 10 gigatons. Its results are hidden locked up

by

On October 30, 1961, a Soviet bomber furrowed the skies of the Arctic towards Novaya Zemlya. Under his fuselage he hung an artifact the size of a bus: an unprecedented nuclear pump. At 11:32, the called TSAR pump He released. A parachute slowed its fall, allowing the plane to move away. Then, a detonation illuminated the sky with a fireball of almost 10 kilometers in diameter and a fungus -shaped cloud that amounted to more than 65 kilometers. The show was surreal: the pump, With 50 megatones explosive (more than 3,300 times that of Hiroshima), became a symbol of the Nuclear madness. But it could be much worse. The awakening of a new era. With the atomic bombardment of Hiroshima and Nagasaki In August 1945, the world changed irreversibly. Those bombs, 16 and 21 kilotons respectively, they marked the beginning of the destructive power without a paragon of Nuclear weapons. However, despite their fearsome capacity, these weapons were only the first step towards a much more sinister technological escalation. What would later transcend the most reckless imagination. The most powerful pump ever detonated would be That Soviet tsar of 50 megatones, although designed to reach 100. However, the most disturbing thing is that this was not the summit. In hidden, the United States had still planned More huge. The “Super” concept. Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were based In fission: A chain reaction in which heavy nuclei are divided releasing energy. But as we said, in parallel to their development, some scientists imagined a second stage: The fusion. This implied union of light nuclei (as deuterium and tritium) to form a heavier one, releasing even more energy. It happens that this reaction required an initial fission explosion to activate, which would give rise to the concept of the Hydrogen pumps. In the 1940s they were just a theoretical speculation … but everything changed very soon. Photograph of a replica of the tarum pump housing Communism comes. After the detonation of the First atomic bomb Soviet in 1949, the United States accelerated its thermonuclear programs. The fear of communism, enhanced by the revolution in China that same year, made the National Security Council recommend quadruply military spending. In that context, the figures of Edward Teller and Stanislaw Ulam appear, who devised The design that even today supports the H bombs. In 1952, the “Mike” test of Operation IVY demonstrated for the first time the Thermonuclear principle: an explosion of 10.4 megatones (500 times Nagasaki) that left a crater of 1,900 meters wide. Despite such force, that was not enough for Teller. The Soundy germ. Two years later, in 1954, the so -called “Shrimp” bomb during the Castle Bravo test. A powerful explosion was expected, but the result of 15 megatons (1,000 times Hiroshima) even surprised its designers, both by strength and by the devastating level of radiation released. However, Teller’s impetus did not stop there either. I wanted more, Much more. It was then that one of the most delusional and terrifying projects of nuclear history emerged: the Sundial Project. Designed by Teller and his colleagues from the Livermore Radiation Laboratory, the plan proposed a new destruction scale: no already kilotons or megatones, we entered In the gigatons. A couple of brothers. They were designed Two weapons: Gnomon and Sindial. Gnomon would act as “primary”, with a detonation of 1,000 megatons aimed at detonating Soundy, which would reach a power of 10,000 megatons, that is, 10 gigatons. For placing it in perspective, he thinks again The image of the beginning. Well, the figure exceeds 200 times the tsar bomb, and almost does not fit in the conceptual framework of the physics of conventional explosions. The potential apocalypse. The logic behind Sindial overflows any traditional calculation. To such powers, the laws of escalation of destruction They lose any validity: The heat, pressure and energy released would be so monstrous that, a priori, they would open a hole in the atmosphere. In fact, A report Del Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists pointed out that a pump like a sundial, detonated about 45 kilometers of altitude, could cause fires in an area of the size of France. The death toll would be unthinkable, not only because of the immediate explosion but by global radioactive sequels. Hiroshima, with 140,000 victims, would be a sigh against cataclysm that would represent Sindial. It was not science fiction. Although it might seem like a laboratory fantasy, the Sundial Project It was not a joke or an eccentric occurrence. Declassified documents and historical analysis indicate that Livermore’s team worked seriously For years in the development of Gnomon, with concrete plans to test it in the Redwing operation of 1956. That test was canceled, but the mere existence of the plan shows to what extent the fear, scientific ambition and deterrence had pushed the superpowers to border the abyss of the unacceptable. Echoes of Sindial. Suindial never materialized, but his mere conception forced A critical reflection In American politics. The growing destructive power of these weapons overflowed not only military strategy, but also ethics, logistics and land physics itself. While many ruled out their tactical utility for being impracticable (a pump of such dimensions was impossible to launch), its potential as an instrument of symbolic terror was enormous. As with The TSAR pumpits value was more political than operational: a floating threat that showed how far a nation could go if I wanted. Monster in the shadows. Finally, the Soundal project is It was diluting between political restrictions, international treaties and practical sense (without serving as precedent). The Ratification of the treaty Partial prohibition of nuclear trials in 1963 was a brake on atmospheric tests, which in practice made it impossible to continue advancing in the development of extreme performance weapons. The strategy then went on to favor smaller, portable and operational multiple eyelets, leaving behind the vision of total apocalypse that represented Sindial and its cousin Soviet sister. Imagine the unimaginable. What’s doubt, today sundial is just a footer … Read more

In World War II, the British were looking for an antibunker bomb. So they copied a Disney idea

by

The morning of last Sunday, June 22, The United States deployed its B-2 With a mission: launch, for the first time, its new MOP pumps on Iranian bases. These mass bombs have a single function: eX PLACE IN Underground Bases And, despite being avant -garde armamentits technology began to be tested decades ago, in the Second World War. It was the British who developed a bomb capable of bursting a bunker, and their inspiration came from the most unexpected place. A Disney movie. Need. It is in the war when the brightest minds of each country gather to invent new ways of killing. Even if they don’t know what the consequences of their creations will be. The World War I It was a period of Technological Revolutionthe second more of the same and In the Cold War The Explosion of nuclear bombs (and almost that of chickens). In short: each country in conflict wants have the “fattest” bomb. In the mid -2GM, the British sought a powerful bomb, but with a more concrete objective than that of causing all possible damage: they wanted something capable of advising a blow to the bunkers heart and Nazi submarine factories. Thus, they developed the Tallboy and the Grand Slampumps of five and ten tons respectively designed to hit near the target, penetrate the earth, exploit and cause damage to the shock waves transmitted through the ground. The idea was good, but they still needed something more concrete than those “earthquake” bombs. And then, someone saw this propaganda movie of Disney: Drawing pump. Leaving aside that you could keep your mouth open because … yes, that Disney produced ithe who saw the short was Edward Terrellof the Royal Reserve of Naval Volunteers. It is said that, after watching the film, Terrell and other officers, they would ask if it would be possible to design a bomb that directly crossed the concrete and destroy objectives such as the Nazi submarinesas seen in one of the frames, instead of waiting for the expansive wave of an earthquake to damage the underground base. In September 1943, engineers got to work while the viability of the pump was discussed. There were those who opposed, but Churchill was approved and, there, the development began. Edward Terrell and two other RAF officers with a Disney bomb Promising. The Disney pump, baptized Officially as “4,500 pump assisted by rocket to drill concrete” (‘Disney bomb’ has much more stuck, where we are going to stop) it was massive not so much because of the dimensions, but because of the weight and its explosive capacity. With just over five meters long and 43 centimeters in diameter, it had a weight of 2,000 kilos. As his name indicated, he was driven by RP-3 rockets And as an explosive it was loaded with 230 kilos of ‘Shellite‘, a mixture designed during World War I. Thrown from Boeing B-17 or B-29 aircraft, its operation was simple: to boost with the rockets to reach a speed of more than 1,500 km/h, penetrate everything possible due to accumulated kinetic energy and detonate late within the installation. In addition, its maximum penetration was about 5 meters of reinforced concrete, enough to cause great damage to enemy structures. Afternoon, too late. The bomb was promising, but it took too long. They began to develop late (when they had the idea, go) and that caused that it was not ready until almost the end of the conflict. In January 1945 they carried out some tests and, although the bomb was British, it was the United States Air Force that had of it. Between February and April 1945 they launched a total of 158 Disney bombs against bunkers and submarine factories in Germany. A clear objective was Valentin, a U-Bats factory That it was about to be completed, something that the allies could not allow and managed to cause damage to the target with armor 4.5 meters thick, but had a trick: it had already been previously damaged by the Grand Slam bombs of the British. A fair shotgun. The Disney bomb was a disaster for two reasons. The first and most obvious is that it came very late and attacks on underwater bases did not mean a real difference in the outcome of the conflict in the European territory. But, in addition, they failed. During the Valentin bunker attack More than 60 pumps were launched, but only one directly impacted and, as we say, the damages caused were preceded by the explosions of the British bombs thrown days before. For more inri, in evidence during the years after World War II with controlled releases in the Helgoland Islandof 76 bombs released, it was discovered that the lighting of the rockets failed in 37% of the cases, very limiting the penetrating power of the projectile. In addition, some bombs exploited prematurely and would not serve to achieve the objectives. Yes one thing was discovered: the maximum penetration of 5.08 meters in concrete. The MOP, Disney’s legacy. In the end, between technical, tactical and temporary problems, the efficacy of the Disney pump was extremely limited, but it is clear that it represented an important technological advance in the Antibunker war. So much that he laid the foundations for future penetration weapons. And of those rains, these sludge, as they say. The GBU-57A/B. launched by the US against Iran is the latest technology of the MOP bombs, or ‘Massive Ordnance Penetrator’. The big difference with the Disney pump is that this huge 6.25 meters long projectile and the FRIOLERA OF 13,600 KILOS (2,400 of them are explosives) Yes it works, also penetrating up to 60 meters of concrete. And another difference is that it is launched from such high (12 kilometers from a B-2) that does not need engine, since it is gaining speed as it falls, being very precise thanks to its laser guidance. In short, technology that is not so much of science fiction and that shows that we are great … Read more

Uranium centrifuges have triggered war between Israel and Iran. Without them it is impossible to have the atomic bomb

by

Uranium centrifugers monopolize a good part of global attention since it began The last episode of the conflict between Israel and Iran on June 13. The government led by Benjamín Netanyahu has set as a fundamental objective dismantle the Iranian nuclear program that presumably seeks to develop the necessary technology to Manufacture atomic bombs. And to achieve it Israel and the US have bombarded The facilities in which Iran was carrying out the enrichment of uranium, such as the plants of Fordo, Isfahán and Natanz. According to Israel and the US, these Iranian nuclear facilities housed several hundred uranium centrifugers. It can even that several thousand of these machines. Its role in the nuclear program not only of Iran, but in that of any country with the ability to manufacture nuclear weapons, is to enrich 90%uranium. Otherwise it is not possible to use it to produce atomic fission pumps o Thermonuclear devices that combine fission and nuclear fusion. However, in these last pumps uranium is only used in the fission stage, which acts as a detonator of the nuclear fusion. In this last reaction two isotopes of hydrogen intervene: the deuterium and the tritium. Uranium-235 is the true protagonist of this story To precisely understand what is the purpose of uranium centrifuges it is necessary that we previously investigate in two isotopes of this chemical element Metallic, heavy and radioactive. Uranium is present in nature in very low concentrations, normally in rocks, land and water. Hence, its obtaining is expensive and its complex treatment, since it requires chemical processes capable of separating it from the other elements and impurities with which it usually lives. It has 92 protons and many other electrons orbiting around the nucleus, and the latter incorporates, in addition to the protons, between 142 and 146 neutrons. It is important that we remember that the nucleus of an atom is usually constituted by a certain number of protons and neutrons (although not always: the protio, the isotope of the most abundant hydrogen, has a single proton and no neutron in its nucleus), as well as by some electrons that orbit around it. The fact that the number of neutrons of the uranium nucleus may varyas we have just seen, it indicates that there are several isotopes of this chemical element, which are nothing other than atoms with the same number of protons and electrons, but different number of neutrons. In fission reactors and nuclear weapons it is used as uranium-235 fuel The reason why in the fission reactors and nuclear weapons is used as an uranium-235 fuel, and not another isotope of this element or any other chemical element, it consists that by bombarding its nucleus with a neutron (a process that is known as induced fission) the uranium-235 is transformed into uranium-236, which is a more unstable element. This simply means that Uranium-236 cannot remain long in its current state, so it is divided into two nuclei, one from Bario-144 and another of Crypton-89, and also emits two or three neutrons. And here comes the really interesting: the sum of the masses of the Bario-144 and Crypton-89 nuclei is slightly lower than the Uranium-236 nucleus from which they come (“disappears” around 0.1% of the original mass). Where has the mass we lack? Only one can be left: has been transformed into energy. Formula e = m c²probably the most popular in the history of physics, relates mass and energy, and what it says is simply that a certain amount of mass equals a specific amount of energy, even if the dough is at rest. In fact, the equivalence between mass and energy, proposed by Albert Einstein In 1905, he tells us something more important. The C of the formula represents the speed of light in a vacuum, which, as we all intuit, is a very large number (299,792,458 m/s). In addition, it is squared, which means that even a very, very small mass, such as the portion of the nucleus of an atom, although it is at rest contains a large amount of energy. This is what we know as resting energy. If the mass is in motion its total energy is greater than its resting energy. And, if we observe the equivalence between mass and energy, it is easy to realize that the mass of a body in motion too is greater than its resting massa phenomenon that It introduces us fully into relativistic physics. In any case, the energy we obtain by merging or fissting atomic nuclei comes from the force that keeps them together: Strong nuclear interaction. Understanding with some precision the relationship between mass and energy is important because it helps us understand how it is possible that a mass as small as that of an atom allows us to obtain such a large amount of energy. In any case, the nuclear fission process does not end here. And it is that each of the neutrons that we have obtained as a result of the disintegration of the Uranium-236 nucleus in the Bario-144 and Crypton-89 nuclei can interact with other physically nuclei, causing a chain reaction. However, not all neutrons emitted during the disintegration of the Uranium-236 nucleus will interact with a physirable nucleus. But they don’t need to do it all. It is enough that only one of those neutrons achieves it to obtain a stable number of fissures, and, therefore, a controlled reaction, which is the objective of the reactors of the nuclear power plants. Centrifugators serve to increase uranium-235 concentration The most abundant uranium isotope in nature is uranium-238. In fact, it represents approximately 99.3% of the total uranium. The problem is that this isotope is not physically. The uranium enrichment process seeks to increase the proportion of uranium-235, which, as we have seen, is physically, within the total mass of uranium. However, this last isotope is very scarce in nature. So much that only represents 0.7% of natural uranium. The nuclear reactors of the power plants require … Read more

The US has started evaluating the risks that runs if you attack Iran. What worries you most is a fearsome bomb: yours

by

While the United States, in Trump’s figure, leafless the Margarita on a possible intervention American military against Iran, several scenarios open, all uncertain, and a technical, strategic and symbolic obstacle: the difficulty of destroying The ForDow Uranium Enrichment Center, a underground installation excavated deep in a mountain. In fact and, as we will see, Washington’s main concern at this time is a bomb … yours. Weigh the risks. He Financial Times and the Washington Post have published two reports on that moment of Impasse that is lived in the administration. While Trump holds intense meetings in the White House crisis room to decide if the United States joins the Israeli offensive against Iran, US intelligence and defense services draw an exhaustive map of possible reprisals that Tehran could trigger. Among the explicit warnings of the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Jamenei (who has threatened to cause “irreparable damage” if Washington intervenes), and the strategic memory of previous cycles Of climbing, the White House faces a decision that could mark the turning point In the conflict. Iranian response options cover A broad spectrum: Direct attacks against American troops or embassies in the Middle East, cybernetic sabotages, terrorist attacks, undercover actions through allied militias such as Hezbollah or hutis, and, perhaps the most serious from the economic point of view, the Ormuz Strait closurewhere a third of the world’s maritime oil travels. The dilemma of deterrence. The United States currently maintains some 40,000 military troops deployed in the region, with eight permanent bases in countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Catar and Arab Emirates, in addition to operational presence in other eleven key enclaves, including Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Oman. The Udeid Air Base in Catar, headquarters of the American central command, houses 10,000 soldiersand other facilities such as the Bahrain Naval Base or the infrastructure in Kuwait house tens of thousands more. Although all have aerial defenses, their geographical proximity with Iran makes them Vulnerable objectives Before a ballistic or cruise missile attack, drones or even irregular command incursions. Iran has a significant arsenal of unmanned projectiles and aerial vehicles, many of them of their own manufacture or adaptations of Russian and North Korean models, and although their response would not be immediate, the internal debate in Tehran about when and how to answer It could be intensified If Washington actively participates in the campaign. The threat of the Strait. He Ormuz narrowneuralgic point of global hydrocarbons trade, represents a Strategic risk first order. Iran has demonstrated in the past (as in 2019when it managed to temporarily paralyze 50% of Saudi production through a combined missile and drone attack) that can seriously affect the world energy market. If you choose to undermine the strait, use fast boats, submarines or coastal batteries to block the passage, the impact on oil prices It would be immediate and global. It happens that they will also It depends on the Strait For its own crude oil exports, which introduces a structural contradiction: damage ormuz would harm both their enemies and itself. Even so, like They point out analysts From the pentagon, deterrence based on mutual vulnerability does not guarantee containment if the survival of the regime is at stake. The precedent of hutis in the red seawhich have managed to interrupt maritime traffic despite weeks of US bombings, demonstrates the effectiveness of sustained asymmetric tactics even under constant military pressure. The mystery of a bomb. And here we reach the main theme from the perspective of the possible attack of the United States. In the heart of deliberations about this possible military intervention against Iran is the difficulty of destroying the center of Uranium enrichment of Fordow, that underground installation excavated deep in a mountain. He counted exclusive The Guardian that Trump has already been informed that the use of the GBU-57 pump could, in theory, Inspore fordow During a limited period of time, but according to sources close to the conversations, the president is not convinced of his effectiveness and has conditioned any authorization to attack the guarantee that the objective can be eliminated definitively. B-52 launching a MOP during the tests, 2009 Reasonable doubt. Doubts feed not only for the tactical complexity of the operation, but also of the evaluation of the Department of Defense: several experts They have warned Not even a GBU-57 pump battery would be enough to completely destroy Fordow, and that only A tactical nuclear weapon I could achieve it with certainty. In this regard, the British newspaper stressed that the option, however, has not been considered Formally and was ruled out in the meetings held between Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegesh and the head of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Caine. GBU-57 limitations. It We count this week. It is a 13.6 tons pump capable of penetrate underground structures reinforced, the same one that has been the center of multiple debates in the Pentagon since the beginning of Trump’s mandate. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DRA), responsible for testing and analyzing this kind of weapons, has pointed out that Fordow, about 80 meters underground, is beyond the operational reach of this ammunition without a PREVIOUS PREPARATION OPERATION that includes the destruction of aerial defenses, elimination of GPS interference and a possible saturation attack with conventional weapons to weaken the land. Even so, even under optimal conditions, the impact of a GBU-57 pump It could be limited to collapsing tunnels, sealing accesses and burying machinery under debris, but not to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear capacity. The bomb, in addition, has never been used Under real conditions against an installation such as Fordow, which adds technical uncertainty to the already high political risk of initiating an open conflict. Absolute success or deterrence. The Guardian explained That for some high controls, the real problem is not the bomb itself, but the expectation of a “One and Done (unique and decisive attack) that does not conform to operational reality. The retired general Randy Manner, former Draw director, He warned that ForDow could be … Read more

Israel is obsessed with Iran’s nuclear bomb project. What hides is your own unofficial atomic arsenal

by

With the conflict of the Middle East there is a paradox. Israel has been saying that Iran is about to Have nuclear weaponssomething that nobody is certain that it is so, at least not in its entirety. In fact, it is one of the most repeated issues these days how far the Iranian “nuclear theme” reaches. And yet, no one asks the question in reverse. What happens to Israel’s nuclear program? Iran’s “bombs”. It We count yesterday. Despite the alarms on by Netanyahu for more than a decade (like that famous bomb cart that showed in the UN in 2012), there are no conclusive tests that Iran has made the decision to manufacture a nuclear weapon. While the country has enriched uranium to nearby levels to the military And it has accumulated reservations that, technically, could serve to produce several bombs with greater purification, both US intelligence services and the International Atomic Energy Agency agree that It has not been detected An active weapon program. Iran has become A “threshold state”with the ability to arm himself if he decided, but without evidence of crossed that threshold. Single side. And while Israel displays All your military force To dismantle what he considers an existential threat (Iran’s nuclear program), he does so carrying his own atomic arsenal, no officially recognized But increasingly evident. The war that Israel has undertaken against Tehran seeks to destroy Key facilities That, according to international experts, they could provide Iran that atomic bomb in a matter of months. However, in a gesture of paradoxical silence, Israel has never confirmed or denied the existence of its own nuclear program. At the diplomatic level, it maintains an ambiguous formula: ensures that it will not be the first country to “introduce” nuclear weapons in the Middle East. That phrase, deliberately inaccurate, allows you to preserve a discourse of prudence while preserving what most analysts consider a consolidated and growing atomic capacity. Hidden but feared. In fact, the play is doubly winner. Had the New York Times that the most conservative calculations attribute to Israel a minimum of 90 Nuclear Ojivas lists to be deployed, with sufficient fistening material reserves to manufacture hundreds more. Although its arsenal is the second smallest of the nine countries recognized informally as nuclear powers, Just ahead North Korea, its delivery capacity It is advanced: Balistic missiles, modified and submarine combat aircraft endowed with missiles with nuclear capacity constitute a complete deterrence triad. Israel’s absence in the Nuclear Non -Proliferation Treaty (which is also not part of Indian, Pakistan or North Korea) reinforces the legal exceptionality of your situation. The treaty, in force since 1970only recognizes the five nations that detonated atomic weapons before 1967: United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom. Any other country that signed should, in theorygive up this armament. Israel has avoided that commitment, thus maintaining a strategic freedom that allows it to operate outside international inspections or explicit limitations. Dimona’s secret. And here comes one of the keys to the heart. The heart of the Israeli nuclear program beats in the Néguev desert, at the facilities of Dimona. Founded in 1958 With French help, this installation was Inspection object Americans during the 1960s, but since then it has remained Out of reach of any international monitoring. Broarship intelligence documents They revealed Already in 1960 that the complex included a plant of Plutonium reprocessingwhich implied a military objective. By 1967, Israel had managed to develop nuclear explosives And in 1973, during the Yom Kipur WarThe United States already assumed with certainty that the country He had atomic bombs. Throughout the decades, various satellite images have documented significant extensions In Dimonaand some Recent reports They indicate that Israel could even be building a new reactor to increase its plutonium production capacity, the material indispensable for both nuclear weapons and certain peaceful uses. Silent deterrence. Unlike dozens of countries that are accepted to the nuclear umbrella From the United States for its defense, Israel has opted for its own atomic shield. This strategic independence suggests that Israel not only has nuclear weapons, but is willing to use them As a last resort If its existence is compromised. Although you have never used these weapons in combat, There are reports which point to their preparation during the wars of 1967 and 1973. It is also suspected that Israel participated in Secret nuclear trialsas the famous incident of the American satellite Watches in 1979which detected a double light explosion near the Indian Ocean. Although the nation denied its involvement, newspapers of President Jimmy Carter recorded the Strong suspicion that Israel and South Africa collaborated in that clandestine test. Be that as it may, those events still are not confirmed, although the most relevant documents continue to classified, which feeds suspicions. The strategic logic. In short, and despite Your official opacitythe existence of Israeli nuclear arsenal seems tacitly recognized for its exclusion of otherwise protection mechanisms. The fact that it is not part of the American deterrence is interpreted by experts such as the clearest nonverbal confirmation of its independent atomic capacity. In the eyes of the Israeli government, this decision responds to A philosophy deeply rooted: no one but Israel can and should guarantee their survival. I remembered the Times that this logic, heiress of foundational trauma From the Holocaust, it was explicitly expressed By Ernst David Bergmann, president of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, stating that the atomic bomb was the only guarantee that “we will never be taken as lambs to the slaughterhouse.” No doubt, that principle continues to guide Israeli nuclear doctrine: maintain a sufficiently ambiguous capacity not to cause international reactions, but powerful enough to deter any real aggression. Image | Planet Lab, The Official CTBO In Xataka | Israel’s great goal in his war against Iran is to destroy Fordow. And you can only get it with a bomb that has USA In Xataka | Ukraine was the anticipation of what Israel has done: war is no longer … Read more

Israel’s great goal in his war against Iran is to destroy Fordow. And you can only get it with a bomb that has USA

by

It happened a few hours ago and American media They are taking it on their covers. Trump and Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, spoke on the phone. It is not clear what they said, but the call occurred while the president has been considering a distant option: that the United States intervenes directly in the Israel’s efforts for damaging the nuclear capacity From Iran. In the background, an idea that was intuited from the beginning of the conflict: the only way to reach Fordow was Through Washington. A key decision. On a day that could define the rest of its presidency, Trump faces one of the decisions more transcendental Of his mandate: or not to the Israel War against Iran. After returning from the G7 summit in Canada, the president held a high -level meeting and talked directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While, In your social networks He proclaimed that the United States had “total control of Iranian airspace,” warned Supreme Leader Ali Jameneí who was an “easy white” and demanded an “unconditional surrender”, without defining the terms. Although until recently Trump had advocated a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear program, his rhetoric and his most recent military movements (such as the deployment of bombers and Naval destroyers) suggest that this direct intervention is seriously considering. The change of posture. Had the New York Times In an extensive report how that turn to action in Washington’s position has been brewing. Throughout the last weeks, Trump has traveled from diplomatic containment to a growing acceptance of the military road to the Iranian challenge, largely pushed by the constant pressure of the Israeli prime minister, Netanyahu. While Trump tried to keep negotiations with Tehran (even sending A personal letter Ayatolá Jamenei and presenting nuclear cooperation proposals with regional participation), American intelligence began to warn that Israel He planned an attack Imminent against the Iranian nuclear program, with or without the support of Washington. Israel and pressure. The Times explained That Netanyahu, tired of years of containment by successive US presidents, seemed willing to launch a large offensive, not only on nuclear facilities, but potentially on the Iranian regime itself. This direct threat, added to the growing Trump skepticism Regarding the Iranian will to reach a real agreement, it caused an inflection: although at the beginning it rejected deliver the antibunker bombs requested by Netanyahu, the president ended up offering support in intelligence and now even values ​​the use of b-2 bombers and heavy armament against Fordowhe heart Underground Iranian nuclear enrichment. Symbolic weight. It is the other leg that explains the turn of events. It is not only a product of intelligence reports or impatience to stagnant negotiations, but also symbolic and media weight of the Israeli attacks and the role that Trump You want to project before its base: that of a strong, decisive and protective leader of Israel’s interests. Gathered with their advisors at Camp David, the media have counted that the President debated various optionsfrom passivity to total implication, and opted for a Intermediate strategy that would allow him to maintain a certain political distance while offering operational support. However, as Israel He obtained tactical victories (Including the murder of Iranian military leaders and the possible penetration in Natanz’s facilities), Trump began to change his public position, hinting at a more active role in the United States in the campaign. The goal. Because the key, againis in Fordow, the Iranian uranium enrichment center excavated under a mountain, a fortress that could only be destroyed by a name: the gigantic GBU-57 pumpsthat only B-2 can launch. The possibility of attacking with this arsenal, added to the perception that Israel cannot destroy underground installation without US support, feeds the sensation of imminence. MOP underground at White Sands Missile Range before his first explosion test in 2007 The bomb that drills mountains. Thus, and in the midst of a conflict that does nothing but grow, the potential role of the United States in an air operation against Iranian nuclear facilities brings to stage one of the most feared and less used artifacts of the US arsenal: the GBU-57A/B. Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 13,600 kilos bomb Designed to do precisely what its name indicates: to penetrate deeply into the earth and destroy underground fortifications. Unlike conventional mass dispersion pumps, MOP is a precision weapon, not saturation. Its forged steel structure and its guide by GPS allow it excavate up to 60 meters in solid rock (or even more, after years of improvements not revealed) before detonating in the heart of bunkers, tunnels or underground laboratories designed to resist the apocalypse. It is not the volume. Although it is the explosive non -nuclearly heavy of the US military inventory, its effectiveness does not depend on the destructive volume, but on its surgical capacity to eliminate what is beyond the reach of any other pump. Despite its devastating potential, it has never been used in combat, but its deployment is contemplated only for missions that alter the global strategic balance. B-2’s first public flight in 1989 19 B-2. And here appears the other fundamental leg of the strategy of this deterrent pump. The MOP cannot be launched from any aircraft. Only the B-2 Spiritthe stealthy strategic bomber of the United States Air Force has the structural and technological capacity to load it and deliver it in the target. With just 19 operational units (a good part parked On Diego García Island), The B-2 is not a bomber: it is a platform designed to go far, avoid radars and attack in depth, literally. In the past, these devices have flown round trip missions of more than 30 hours From Misuri until Libya or Kosovowithout scales except reposses in the air. Plus: the Recent updates to the MOP system they have sought to perfect the Integration between bomb and planein addition to improving the capacity of the intelligent spolet to detect structural “empty” (floors, cameras, tunnels) and exploit exactly at the most … Read more

We have been believing that Iran is “five years” from the nuclear bomb. In reality we only know how much uranium enriches

by

Few phrases have been as repeated in the geopolitics of the West as “Iran is five years from the nuclear bomb.” For more than three decades, we have heard predictions that place the Iranian regime on the verge of crossing the atomic threshold, a stopwatch that restarts again and again without the prophecy becoming fulfilled. The real problem is not so much what we know about Iran’s nuclear program, as the immensity of what we do not know. And it is in that fog of uncertainty where the most dangerous decisions are cooked. A diffuse red line like Casus Belli. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has initiated a war against Iran framed in which the regime is “close to finishing the construction of a nuclear bomb.” This language transforms an old threat into an immediate danger, turning the rhetorical red line into a justification for war. Although the United States initially denies direct participation in the attack, political and military support has gone in crescendo. A Message of President Donald Trump In capital letters, “Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon!”, It works as a blank check for Israel. Thirty years of breached predictions. When a suspicion, and not an evidence, they are a reason for war, it is worth reviewing the newspaper library to put rhetoric in perspective. The feeling of “imminent nuclear bomb” in Iran is not new. It is a political construction that has been managing for decades, with Benjamin Netanyahu as its main architect. In 1992, Netanyahu already warned that Iran was “three or five years” to obtain nuclear weapons. In 2012, he starred in one of his most iconic moments at the UN, drawing a red line with a marker In a cartoon scheme of a pumpand ensuring that they would cross the line in the summer of 2013. Each period has been fulfilled without the weapon becoming materialized. What do intelligence agencies say. Although Israel had in the United States its main political ally, US intelligence agencies did not buy their rhetoric about Iran. In 2007, the National Intelligence Estimate De la CIA concluded with “high confidence” that Iran had stopped its nuclear militarization program, the AMAD Plan. The verification of this break came in 2015 with the Comprehensive Comprehensive Plan Joint (JCPOA), an agreement by which Iran limited uranium enrichment to 3.67% in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. The break that caught the fuse. Paradoxically, the withdrawal of the United States of the JCPOA in 2018, driven by the same rhetoric of the “imminent bomb”, caused the response that was intended to avoid. Iran began to enrich uranium at unprecedented levels: first 20% and then 60%, drastically shortening the theoretical deadlines for the pump and triggering the current crisis. Despite this, there are no evidence, beyond the expansion of enrichment plants, that Iran have the necessary technology or develop those weapons. Although, in honor of the truth, it is logical that there are no, since most of the activity is underground. Faith jump between enrichment and nuclear bomb. To understand how “near” Iran of the nuclear bomb is, you have to differentiate two key processes. The first is the fuel: the enrichment of uranium, the visible part of the process. It is about increasing the concentration of the fistible isotope 2 35 of the uranium from the 0.7% natural to 90% (the arms degree). Thanks to the withdrawal of the JCPOA, Iran accumulates a large amount of 60%enriched uranium. And moving from 60 to 90% is a technically feasible leap within a few weeks. However, Having the fuel is not having the enginewhat Anglo -Saxons call “weaponization.” A set of incredibly complex steps to convert the fistible material into a functional eye that can be mounted on a missile. They have to convert the uranium of arms degree, which is a gas, into a metal sphere. They have to surround that sphere with high precision explosives that have to detonate simultaneously in microseconds to compress the nucleus and start the chain reaction. And all this, in a package small and light enough to fit in the eyes of a missile and survive the launch. This is where we enter the field of almost total uncertainty. We know that this will investigated with the AMAD Plan, but its current progress is unknown. However, nobody knows it with certainty because intelligence on underground activities is very difficult to obtain. What we know with certainty. Despite decades of sanctions, sabotage, selective murders of its scientists and cyberbrains (like the famous Stuxnet, which destroyed uranium centrifuges), the Iranian nuclear program has not only survived, but has become stronger and more self -sufficient. Iran designs and produces its own advanced centrifuging. In fact, Israel’s main objective is to destroy the Fordow plant, that Iran built under a mountain to make it invulnerable to air attacks. In parallel, Iran has developed the largest and diverse ballistic missile program in the Middle East, and a fleet of trucks ready to shoot them. This resilience demonstrates that technical knowledge is deeply institutionalized in the regime, which is why Israel has eliminated those responsible for the nuclear program, as well as Iranian launches. At the same time, each Israeli attack can reinforce the conviction in Tehran that the pump is the only guarantee of survival, a fish that bites the tail, accelerated by Netanyahu’s rhetoric. They will go in the North Korean mirror or Pakistan. Beyond the rhetoric of the West, two countries offer key lessons about Iran. North Korea built its nuclear program to ensure the survival of the regime. Isolated and economically devastated, He saw the bomb as his only insurance policy against a overthrow imposed by the United States. The sanctions and pressure only reinforced their determination. Pakistan followed a strategic imperative. It sought to neutralize the military superiority of India. When India tried her bomb in 1974, the Pakistani bomb became a matter of national survival. Iran is a hybrid and more complex case. Share the survival … Read more

Log In

Forgot password?

Forgot password?

Enter your account data and we will send you a link to reset your password.

Your password reset link appears to be invalid or expired.

Log in

Privacy Policy

Add to Collection

No Collections

Here you'll find all collections you've created before.