uncertain

A strangely calm hurricanes season approaches a final uncertain stretch

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September 10 is a date marked in the calendars of hurricane -expert meteorologists. It is the date on which the Atlantic hurricanes season usually achieves its peak of activity. But the decreasing trend in the average activity of Atlantic cyclones should not deceive us: there is still a season ahead. We enter the final stretch. According to Experts remember NHC (National Hurricane Center), the American center dedicated to the study of hurricanes, 60% of the activity of hurricanes occurs, generally, after this peak. That is, despite having already gone through the temporary Ecuador of the season (which begins on June 1 and ends on November 30), we could still have more than half of the cyclonic activity ahead. NHC meteorologists also remember that the activity in this part of the season tends to affect the western zone of the North Atlantic, the most vulnerable area to this type of storm because it is in North America and the Caribbean where they usually touch earth. A quiet season. When the Atlantic hurricane season began, there for June, experts predicted a relatively quiet season, but the data show an even greater meekness than expected. When measuring the intensity of a hurricane season, different measures can be used such as the number of storms named, hurricane number, sum of the days with active hurricanes, etc. Another useful measure is that of the index of accumulated cyclonic energy (ACE). According to The data of the Tropical Meteorology Project of the State University of Colorado (CSU), at this point in the hurricane season, the expected Ace based on the Atlantic weather would be 55.8, while the ACE observed is only 39. This implies that the observed data are 30.1% lower compared to those initially expected. Erin, the disruptive force. In addition, there is the circumstance that most of this energy is due to a single hurricane, Erin. Erin’s Ace was 32.2which represents about 82.6% of the total season. What’s happening. That this year’s season was less intense than the previous one was to wait: the temperature in the Atlantic, even though it has not reached the extreme levels seen in recent years and the oscillation of the child has remained in a kind of indecision. A Recent study Led by the meteorologist of the CSU Philip Klotzbach, he highlighted three reasons that could explain to a good extent what we are observing, starting with an “dry and stable” Atlantic. The second of the factors highlighted by the team is a channel pronounced in the high troposphere capable of increasing the vertical wind shear (one of the two determining factors, together with the oceanic temperature, in the formation of hurricanes). The third and last factor would be a descending movement over the African continent, which would be affecting rainfall in West Africa and with it the intensity of waves in the region. What can we expect. Klotzbach’s team coincides with NHC experts to emphasize the possibility that the season resume intensity from this month. “We anticipate that the resume season (intensity), since large -scale conditions seem more tropical and favorable to cyclones later in September,” explain in your text. Therefore they recommend not changing seasonal forecast. The initial estimate of the Tropical Meteorology project of the CSU indicated that the expected oil for the end of the year It is 122.5. On the other hand, if we take the last data (39) and apply the estimate that 60% of the activity occurs in these last months of the season, we would have an expected oil around 100. We will have to wait to see if the trend continues or if on the contrary we see if this season steps on the accelerator in its last months of activity. In Xataka | The walls against hurricanes no longer work and Darpa has the solution: a wall of oysters and corals Image | Hurricane Erin. NASA Earth Observatory by Michala Garrison, using NASA EOSDIS Lance, GIBS/WorldView, and Suomi National Polar-Footing Partnership.

Barcelona began to excavate to build a parking. Ended up discovering a medieval ship of 10 my and uncertain origin

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His intention was to build a new parking, but the team in charge of the works of the Ciutadella del Coneixementin Barcelona, ​​has ended up doing something very different: finding an archaeological finding that has already captured the interest of the historians of the Catalan capital. And it’s normal. What technicians have located under the ground of the city, to five meters Under the sea level, it is neither more nor less than a medieval long -won over 10 meters long and three wide. The first studies estimate that the boat dates from the fifteenth or sixteenth centuries, but questions are left to answer. What happened? That the Barcelona subsoil has just given a surprise (and a joy) to historians. Another one. A few weeks ago, during the construction works of the future Parking of the BSM in the Ciutadella del Coneixement, archaeologists located the remains of a ship that, according to the first estimates, would date from the fifteenth or sixteenth centuries. It is not the first once the work on the site of the old Mercat del Peix brought to light remains of historical interest, but as Recognize The Archeology Service of the Barcelona City Council is “exceptional”. Good proof is that the town hall has launched A statement (and a wide image gallery) to value the wreck and team of archaeologists in charge of documenting the remains has spoken with the means to clear some doubts. What have you discovered? The “partial remains Of a sunk ship “, a boat that ended up wafraling or abandoned and priori (already waiting for her to advance her study), experts have dated between the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. To be more precise, during their investigation, archaeologists have found a structure formed by thirty notebooks and part of the wooden pieces that covered the exterior of the fuselage. In total the pec ten meters long for just over three wide. “The tables are nailed in the notebooks with circular section timber, a kind of wooden nails that served to join the parts. Two longitudinal pieces set with iron nails are also preserved,” details The City Council Archeology Service. In the world’s surroundings, very fertile sand and alms have also been located that include “organic remains” of interest, such as hazelnut seeds or even pineapple remains. Do we know anything else? In addition to date it around the fifteenth and sixteenth, experts They point that the construction style of the ship was common in the Mediterranean medieval and extended throughout Europe from the mid -XV. They are however Some questions for responding, as its exact origin or what function I played. To clear some of those unknowns archaeologists are also investigating the remains of seeds and alms that surround the wreck. What will happen to him? The City Council He has stressed The importance of the finding because it is “a unique source of knowledge” on navigation and naval construction techniques that were used in the Barcelona of the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. However, not everything is in his favor. The remains are found in a “very fragile state of conservation”, which forces experts to be cautious. To prevent the soaked from drying and degraded by being exposed to the weather, the technicians have partially kept it with the sand that has been used for centuries. The objective of the Archeology Service of Barcelona and the Archaeological Museum of Catalonia is now to document the remains and “guarantee the conservation” of the wreck, which has already been baptized as ‘Citadel I’. “The first actions have included three -dimensional documentation works, the marking of the pieces, the sampling and the preparation of the transfer in containers full of water that ensure the temporary conservation of the remains,” The Consistory requires. The materials will be transferred to “specialized facilities” so that they can treat them with water and hydrosoluble wax, a substance with which the structure is to be reinforced. What tells us about Barcelona? The wreck is not interesting only for the boat itself and what can be told about medieval navigation or naval. Another key is what can tell us about the development of Barcelona. After all, the remains appeared in the old Mercat del Peix, at a depth of more than five meters under sea level. Archaeologists have already They slid that its location can be related to the transformation of the maritime front. “The finding, which from a technical point of view is known as melter, is part of a historical context of transformation of the maritime front. From 1439, with the construction of the first artificial tenazes, the dynamics of the coastline was altered and the sand bar known as the task, which had protected the city for centuries” Clarify The City Council. In 2008 it was already located A similar ship near the station of France. Images | Barcelona’s Decrease In Xataka | We finally know what sailors ate at the high seas in the 16th century. Thanks to the CSIC and a sunk galeon

After years of Japanese, in Spain there is already a generation at the gates of an uncertain scenario: old age without children

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In 1960 each Spanish woman had throughout her life almost three children. Today They do not reach 1.2. The data is just that: data, demographic means, pure statistical mathematics, but they serve to understand better trends that are every time more present in homes of homes. As I know Birth sinkslife expectancy and Families changeSpain meets A new reality: The first “without children” generations look at old age with the challenge of facing that last vital stage without offspring. No children. Neither grandchildren. The big question is … why? And what does it imply? Figure issue. Spanish demography (like that of Other other countriesinside and out of the West) It is changing. A lot. And fast. In fact it has been doing it for a long time. If we review the fertility index we find that It has collapsed Throughout the last decades: of 2.94 children per woman in 1967 we have gone to 1.12. And going down. Translated into babies that supposes that today they are born in Spain less than half that in him Baby Boom. The trend has been the opposite among people who live alone. At least over the last years. If in 2014 the unipersonal households supposed 24% of the total From the census, six years later they were already 26%. Another reality is those who live in a couple but choose to do it without offspring. In 2020 the INE counted near four million of homes with that profile, two out of ten. Generations without children. A few months ago the CIS contributed an even more interesting approach. Its technicians They asked to people born over the last decades if they had children and found themselves with which the percentage of ‘Sies’ fell clearly as the age of the interviewees did. It is a predictable trend among younger respondents, under 34, but the study reflects something else: among cohorts with more advanced ages, which are already peeling retirement, there is also a considerable percentage of people without offspring. And to show a button. If 89% of people of 75 or more years had children, that percentage went to 81.5%Among the interviewees from 55 to 64 years. If we go to the fork from 35 to 44 years the proportion drops even more, to 62%, and if we descend even more, focusing on the population between 25 and 34 years, we find that only 32% of respondents have had at least one offspring. Why is it important? Because as I pointed out recently The Spanish newspaper (EPE) in An analysis On that same phenomenon, the data of the CIS show us that Spain is at the gates of a demographic milestone: the arrival in the old -generation old age in which a relevant percentage of people has chosen to have no offspring. According to the CISin the age strip from 55 to 64 years they represent 18.5%. “The ghost of old age without children”. Between that 18.5% of people without offspring, such as I confessed recently A couple in the fifty to EPE, there are those who already contemplate with concern to the “ghost of old age without children.” That is, the perspective of becoming greater or becoming dependent without children or grandchildren who, if necessary, can serve as a network. “It seems that you are always going to be autonomous, but the aging is noticeable year after year and seeing it in your elders causes restlessness because having children does not mean that no one will take care of you, but you can have support, at least someone to call,” Write The same couple. They now have octogenarian parents who need help and “someone for everything.” “What would they do without their children?” Marking the way. 18.5% may seem a reduced percentage yet, but THE STUDY OF THE CIS It is interesting for something else: it suggests that this scenario of ‘old age without children’ will be increasingly common. Among the interviewees of 45 to 54 years the percentage of those who claim to have no offspring represents 21.3% and between the people aged 25 and 44 touches 36-66%. Maternity It has been delaying With the passing of the decades and today it is located in almost 33 yearswith what the logical thing would be for these percentages to soften, but still the trend is clear. THE CIS Confirm In addition, another reality that institutions such as the INE have been drawing for a long time: many of the couples who have been parents have had a single descendant, so the support they can receive in their old age will depend on a single child. It comes to review two figures to understand it: among those over 75 years of age the percentage of people with children who claim to have had more than a offspring reaches 90.3%. Among the interviewees of 55 to 64 years that same proportion already collapses to 73.5%. A complex reality. The big question arriving at this point is … Why do the Spaniards have fewer children than a few decades ago or do we even opt for not having them? The answer is complex and adds multiple factors, including cultural, labor and social changes, but a few months ago the CIS reflected Another factor Same relevant: the economic one. According to your polls, 77.3% Of the Spaniards believe that people have no children “due to lack of economic means.” 44.1% indicate another cause that goes along the same lines: “Conciling problems” work and professional life. Moreover, the research center states that 59% of respondents who have not been parents recognize that they would have liked to be. “Create support networks”. The other question that remains by throwing is … What will this increase in people who reach old age without children or grandchildren? Will it translate into greater pressure for public coffers? The problem is not exclusive to Spain. Other countries (Even in Asia) They also face the challenge of seeing how their demographic pyramid is widened … Read more

Mistral AI is the French startup that opted for efficiency before Deepseek. His future is uncertain

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Mistral ai is the French technological jewel. The AI ​​startup has become practically the only European representative that competes with large companies and technological startups in the US or China. He also does it with an absolute focus on efficiency, which is just what is now valued as Deepseek. However, its future is complex. A promising European startup. When we talk about her for the first time in 2023, he surprised that without having any product He managed to raise 105 million euros investment Soon, yes, the fruits of such commitment would begin to appear, which also generated that the firm raised More financing rounds. Flag efficiency. One of the defining characteristics of Mistral AI was that his work was always oriented to do more with less. To seek efficiency. The startup, knowing not being able to compete with the Bigt Tech in resources, has always sought to create more compact models but with great performance. He succeeded with Large 2 123b, which was three times smaller that calls 3.1 405b but matched that model and others like Claude 3.5 or GPT-4o in some metrics. They return to the load with Small 3 24b. The startup He has just announced The availability of Small 3 24b, its new “small” model. Actually it is not so much: those with size between 1b and 14. However, it is certainly an interesting llm for one thing: it competes from you to you with flame 3.3 70b – the last of the finish line, almost three sometimes bigger – and also does it with a latency (time it takes to appear every token) much smaller. The performance is fantastic. Latency, if we pay attention to the internal tests of Mistral, fantastic. Answer three times faster than the goal model. Its performance is comparable to GPT-4o Mini, and also exceeds QWEN-2.5 32B latency, which is something better in some benchmarks. This model, yes, has just had successor with QWen2.5-Max. Open Source, and European data. Another advantages of Mistral’s AI is that it is an Open Source AI –“Open Weights”, rather-, as he calls, Deepseek or Qwen. Unlike them, Mistral is a startup that raises data governance in the EU, something that can be inert for government agencies and European companies. It has already been seen how there is suspicion about where the data ends From our chats with Deepseek –Italy is investigating In this regard – and this is an undoubtedly striking option. Interesting uses. Mistral developers explain that their model is perfect for conversational assistants, because in them precisely matters that they respond quickly. They also highlight the ability to customize/polish the model to specialize in certain tasks such as legal council, medical diagnosis or technical support. The model is available on platforms such as Hugging Facebut it can also be executed at home in quantized seeing if you have at least 4090 or for example a MacBook with 32 GB of memory. At the moment it does not seem available In le chatthe web service that has confessed to us to be based on Mistral Large 2.1. Reasoning model in sight. But while their competitors are launched to the race for the reasoning models, Mistral has left something behind in this area. In a message in x They clarify that Small 3 does not use synthetic data “which makes it a great base for anything in reason.” In their official announcement they go further and point out that “among many other things, in the coming weeks, large and small Mistral models are expected with greater reasoning capacity.” Deepseek advancing on the right. The Chinese fashion startup has become the star of the moment with its models, and especially with its reasoning model, Deepseek R1. He has also achieved it using the same weapon as Mistral: efficiency. Deepseek’s success validates Mistral’s strategy, of course, but the question is whether Mistral will continue to compete or be overwhelmed by Chinese and US startups if they also partially or totally adopt that same approach. Mistral’s market share is modest, but is in danger of reducing with the strong competition of US and China companies. Source: FT. Doubts about the future. In media as Financial Times The concern about the future of Mistral and the European startups is discussed. There is no other to work in LLM –The German Aleph Alpha He left that race In September 2024-, and that compromises the future of European efforts to compete and not depend completely on the models of China and the US no matter how they can be. In Spain projects such as Alia are an interesting first step, but for now they are far from the LLMs and models mentioned. Operational limbo. This economic newspaper also indicates that with an assessment of 6,000 million euros Mistral is in a kind of limbo. He has raised too much money to gradually disappear, but not enough to compete with US mega -companies, for example. Acquihire on the horizon? Sean Maher, from the Entext consultancy, believes that Mistral can Follow the steps of inflection aiwhich was acquired by Microsoft – Mustafa Suleyman, current head of Ia in Redmond, was his co -founder. Thus, a potential acquisition of its resources and especially of their talent (which is usually called ‘acquihire’) is not ruled out. Image | Mistral ai

The EU has finally become independent of Russian gas. Now faces an equal uncertain dependence: the US LNG

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In the last five years, the supply of liquefied natural gas in Europe depended mainly on Russian reservesrepresenting almost 40% of imports thanks to their competitive prices and an extensive network of gas pipelines. However, Europe has sought to reduce the dependence on Russian gas by the Ukraine War, facing an uncertain energy panorama. Also, still imports Russian LNG record amounts By boat and Hungary and Slovakia oppose restrictive measures. The reserves, which had reached historical levels before winter thanks to storage policies, are now beginning to descend. Given this situation, Europe has chosen to diversify its sources and increase LNG imports from other countries, being the United States one of the emerging suppliers. However, this transition will not be easy. Short. At the time he assumed, in less than 24 hours, Donald Trump signed an executive order with the different measures that Ipso facto was going to take. In addition, the issue of gas and tariffs to Europe comes before assumingbut now the president of the United States has launched a warning to the European Union demanding that more oil and liquefied natural gas be bought or, otherwise, will face the imposition of tariffs. This threat occurs in a context of commercial and energy tensions, where the US seeks to gain ground in the European market, which has historically depended on Russia’s energy imports. However, the EU does not have a centralized purchasing power that allows it to negotiate large -scale contracts, since it is individual companies that decide where to buy the gas. Evolution of European LNG imports in recent years The evolution of the gas supply. This graph represents the supply of LNG in Europe, which has experienced notable changes such as more than 15 years ago liquefied natural gas came in most countries such as Qatar and other producers. However, Russia’s agency was marking over time. However, the position of the United States as a supplier of Europe is from 2020, which is observed how it is consolidated. This was due, in large part, to the sanctions and commercial restrictions imposed on the Kremlin, which forced the EU has diversify its sources. In the last year, US imports have reached historical levels, even exceeding traditional suppliers. Europe’s position. Although Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, has shown its willingness to replace Russian gas with American LNG, the EU does not have the centralized purchase capacity on a large scale, so each member country negotiates it independently. For its part, Hungary and Slovakia, more aligned with the Kremlin For their energy treatment, they may not share these EU measures. However, Brussels aims to reduce the dependence of Russian fossil fuels for two years, but the high price of American LNG compared to Russian gas remains an important obstacle. In addition, the EU is struggling to protect its industries and reduce high energy prices, especially in countries such as Germany, which depend on gas for its industry. And Russia? Despite the Ukraine War and the sanctions imposed by the United States and the EU, Russia remains the largest gas supplier for the latter. The reason is because European companies continue to import large volumes of Russian LNG due to the lowest prices and the lack of short -term affordable alternatives. For its part, the Kremlin is looking for new markets for its energy and is approaching more to the Asian continent. Commercial relations. The production capacity of American LNG is increasing, and more natural gas plants are expected to enter into operation in the coming years. By 2026, the United States, Canada and Qatar may meet much of the European LNG demand, thus reducing the need for Russian gas. In addition, the EU seeks to reduce its natural gas consumption by 25% by 2030, modifying import and market patterns. However, prices will remain a considerable obstacle for total change to American LNG. Image | Unspash Xataka | Russia has managed to make fun of Europe’s sanctions: I just had to disguise its gas with Azerí flag

Without aid, Spain disconnects from the electric car. 2024 promises have been broken and the roadmap is uncertain

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The electric car in Spain was not doing as well as expected. In 2024, the sale of this type of car will barely grew by 4.21% to reach 65,478 electric cars. But, despite this increase, the share of electric cars has fallen slightly to 5.36%, below the 5.56% in 2023. If we take a look at the ACEA datathe figure is in the lower part of the European market. It is comparable to Italy, where the electric car has not taken off either and remained at 4.2%. But it is very far from France, which is close to 17%, from Portugal, which is also close to 20% or from the Nordic countries, where Sweden is at 35%, Denmark at 51.5% and Norway has already almost reached the threshold. all cars sold in 2024. To understand the idiosyncrasies of each country, we must take into account the characteristics that revolve around the electric car. However, there is something that does not fail: where aid has been simple and stable over time, the electric car has finally taken off. Where they have retreated, the electric car has retreated. What is the plan for Spain? Aid for electric cars in Spain seems to be an eternal problem to be solved. The last stone in the road has arrived with the last extension of the MOVES III Plan. To understand what happened you have to look back. In the last days of 2024, the Government approves a new extension of the MOVES III Plan. For the next 20 days, the project works without surprises but a vote of one omnibus decree that contemplates these aids (and others of great significance such as the revaluation of pensions or transport aid) does not move forward. Without the approval of the Congress of Deputies, everything falls and, with it, the aid from the MOVES III Plan. Since then, the political climate seems to have forgotten about aid for car purchases. There is talk of presenting, again, the same omnibus decree without changes or of vote separately some issues but little or nothing has been said about whether renewing the MOVES III Plan is one of the priorities. It is the finishing touch to an aid project that It has been in the eye of the hurricane for a long time because it is considered cumbersome, not very agile and, above all, ineffective. The theory is good (help from up to 7,000 euros in the purchase of an electric car and a mandatory discount from the dealer of at least another 1,000 euros) but its application discourages future buyers. Each extension of the MOVES III Plan in recent years has come marked by enormous uncertainty. At the end of last December, the Government had not approved a renewal which, ultimately, has been ineffective. But the way of acting was repeated in previous extensions. However, the real problem is how aid is managed. The State has funds that are delivered to the autonomous communities. Regional organizations apply, how each one decidesthe procedure for submitting applications and delivering aid. In some cases, for example, the procedure can be carried out through the dealer and in others only the future buyer can do it. This led to a disagreement between administrations that left undelivered aid for three years and 250 million euros approved to buyers for whom there were no funds. It was July 2024. Months before, The Government had already committed to changing the MOVES III Plan and proposed aid that would be discounted at the time of purchase. The solution that the manufacturers have found is to advance the MOVES III Plan with an interest-free credit for the value of the aid that will be received and that must be returned in a marked period that usually goes up to 18 months. At that time, the buyer should have received the money and would return the credit to the manufacturer. However, a year after those promises, purchase aid had not been changed in Spain. And, what is worse, this aid has fallen and there is no plan on the table to approve it with a closed calendar. Without aid, there is no electric car The worst thing for Spain is that the data tells us that, without aid, there is no electric car. Even the countries where the most electric cars are purchased (percentage or volume) such as Norway and China have built strong sales of this type of technology with multiple and constant purchasing aids. They are not the only ones. How ACEA collectsPortugal does not apply taxes to the purchase of electric cars and reduces them by 75% if they are plug-in hybrids. It also does not apply taxes to vehicle ownership (such as the Spanish road tax) and has tax reductions for companies. In addition, it provides 3,000 euros of aid for the purchase of electric vehicles for cars up to 62,500 euros. In Sweden and Denmark there is no direct purchase aid with discounts but the acquisition of electric cars or their maintenance are kept tax-free (or with significant discounts). France, where electric cars have fallen slightly but nearly two out of every 10 vehicles sold are electric, also provides purchase aid similar to that in Spain. Spain has grown in electric cars sold in 2024 but its market share has decreased slightly Italy, with worse sales figures than Spain, provides aid for larger purchases but for cars priced below 35,000 euros (10,000 euros less than in Spain) so the eligible cars are smaller in number and attractiveness. In addition, it has greater discounts but the car cannot exceed 30,000 euros, which greatly limits the application of this aid. But where it has become clear that the car needs help is in Germany. There we have lived the first year without subsidies for electric cars. The reason, as in Spain, was not a consequence of turning one’s back on technology. It was based on a mere bureaucratic and formal issue, overturning aid to justice. … Read more

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