Risk

The Pentagon labeled Anthropic a national security risk. So Anthropic is suing the Pentagon

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The soap opera between Anthropic and the Pentagon has a new chapter (and now they are going…). After the push and pull of the last few weeks, Anthropic stood and that ended up causing The US put the company on the blacklist. Anthropic was not amused. what has happened. Anthropic has sued the US Department of Defense (or War), calling the decision to blacklist them “unprecedented and illegal” and arguing that it will cause irreparable harm to the company. . In statements to Fortunean Anthropic spokesperson has assured that they remain committed to protecting national security and want to find a solution, but that “it is a necessary step to protect our business, our customers and our partners.” The administration has not commented on this lawsuit. A lot of money at stake. By blacklisting Anthropic, the government prevents defense contractors and suppliers from using Claude in their Pentagon-related activities. Additionally, Trump ordered the entire government to stop using Anthropic’s AI. The company says government contracts are already being canceled and other private contracts are in jeopardy. Anthropic’s commercial director, Paul Smith, has assured that there is a client who already Claude has been swapped for another generative AI. This contract alone will make them lose at least 100 million dollars. Doubts about legality. Anthropic says the government’s move is not legal. Are they right? According to legal experts at Lawfarethe “supply chain risk” label will not withstand judicial scrutiny. The main reason is that this designation is intended for foreign adversaries, as happened with Huawei. The law’s definition is “the risk that an adversary could sabotage or subvert a covered system,” it says nothing about using it as punishment to a national company for a disagreement. According to Lawfare, the statements by Trump and the defense secretary “frame the action as ideological punishment of a political enemy.” The disagreement. The origin of this escalation is in the red lines that Anthropic put Basically, the company refused to allow its model to be used for mass surveillance of citizens and especially the development of lethal weapons without human supervision. The concern is justified: a soldier can refuse to carry out an illegal order, an AI cannot. The Pentagon does not like red lines (from others, of course) and demanded to be able to use their technology without limits. In Trump’s words in a Truth Social post: “We will decide the fate of our country, NOT an out-of-control radical left-wing AI company run by people who have no idea what the real world is like.” Meanwhile OpenAI… Shortly after Anthropic was blacklisted, the government found a new candidate to carry out your plans: OpenAI. According to the company by Sam Altman, its development has more safeguards and hey, calm down, it’s not that big of a deal. What has followed is an image crisis for ChatGPT, with resignations and mass uninstalls of users who have switched to Claude. But let’s not fool ourselves, although Anthropic has won the battle of public opinion, if the US keeps up, the future looks pretty bleak for Amodei’s side. In Xataka | Anthropic has become the Apple of our era and OpenAI our Microsoft: a story of love and hate Image | Anthropic (edited)

Fuel prices are so high that airlines are at risk of disappearing, according to Deutsche Bank

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On February 28, the United States and Israel bombed several cities in Iran, starting a conflict that has already spread to other countries in the Middle East, when Iranian missiles responded to Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or Dubai and other emirates. One of the consequences has been the rise in fuel prices at a dizzying pace due to the paralysis of a key corridor for global energy: the Strait of Hormuz. The days go by, prices continue to rise and when something as strategic as oil rises, it is a matter of time before the accounts come together. Deutsche Bank warns: the sword of Damocles is on the neck of the airlines. The context. Bloomberg collects the information sent by the German financial institution to its clients: while the price of crude oil has increased by 50% so far this year, it is aviation fuel that takes the cake. The British Argus Media collects the price of the jet in recent days for the hubs of Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and New York, where we see how it goes from 2.17 dollars per gallon on January 5 to 2.29 on February 5 until approaching 4 dollars per gallon on March 5 (3.95). In the United States, the price differentials between jet fuel and the price of crude oil range between $85 and $95 per barrel, equal to or higher than the cost of oil. That huge gap between the price of crude oil and that of refined products (called the crack spread) wreaks havoc. The last time a crack spread like this occurred was in 2005, when hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Why is it important. Because as the German entity highlights, 20 years ago the crack spread caused significant and widespread damage to the airline industry, which was the trigger for airlines to Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines filing for bankruptcy. The historical precedent sets off all the alarms. And Deutsche Bank is not alone: the CEO of United Airlines At the moment it has already warned that the increase in jet fuel prices will have a “significant” impact on first quarter results and that there could be an increase in air fares. Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg is forceful: Without immediate price relief, “some of the most financially vulnerable airlines could halt operations” and “airlines around the world could be forced to ground thousands of aircraft.” In detail. At the moment, airlines have plummeted on the stock market since the beginning of the conflict. American Airlines has lost 19% so far this year, but the blow is global: a group of 29 airlines, hotels and travel companies from Europe, Asia and North America together lost $22.6 billion in market capitalization in a single day, according to Reuters. In Xataka | The rocket and the pen: the theory that explains why the rise in gasoline is here to stay In Xataka | There is a hidden war to sell us the cheapest possible gasoline. One that Ballenoil and Plenergy already dominate Cover | Dawn McDonald and Daniel Shapiro

the great Spanish paradox of forest risk

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It seems like a contradiction, but that’s how paradoxes work. And this one in particular is so problematic for Spain that in nine out of ten configurations the result is always the same: whatever happens is bad for fires. But why? I mean, how is it possible that whether it rains or not, this country always has a problem with flames? The world on two scales. If it doesn’t rain, if we endure weeks or months of drought, the humidity of the material accumulated in the mountains (grass, bushes, leaf litter) drops. In addition, the soil temperature rises and living vegetation begins to become stressed. Just one spark is missing and boom, we have a fire source that is very difficult to stop. That is, drought worsens the risk today. The rain makes it worse, but it will do so tomorrow. Because if it rains, the vegetation grows (especially what we call fine fuel) and the continuity of the scrub increases. It’s biomass, biomass and more biomass. If it rains there is no risk, if it doesn’t rain: it is material that sooner rather than later will become fodder for the flames. The hell of the summer of 2025, started in spring… Sometimes we don’t focus much on this: wet springs are wonderful, but in our case it is also a potential danger. Not only because of what I explained above, but because (also) no one manages it. And that means that, if the trend continues in the direction it is going, we have to start seeing rainy winters as more than just a way to save the season. We must begin to see them as a clear reminder that we must invest in prevention, plan devices, firewalls, fuel management and all types of extensive farms that help contain the problem. Because climate change is not just “warmer.” A few days ago, AEMET itself reflected on How rainfall records are changing. Changes in the landscape and rural abandonment are a permanent source of problems and the so-called “bullwhip effect” only increases them: growth phases and drying phases that never stop coming and going. So yes, the great Spanish paradox with rains and fires is this: no matter what happens, in the coming years, we will always have problems with fires. Image | Karsten Winegeart In Xataka | In China they are deploying metal firefighters. Maybe they are more useful than robo-waiters

Spain does not know if it has too many or too few rabbits. But this town of Toledo has declared war on them at their own risk and expense.

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In Villa de Don Fadrique, province of Toledo, the town hall you have just activated an extraordinary authorization to shoot down rabbits daily. In fact, it is inviting volunteers to reduce its population to a minimum. It is a total war against these rodents that are becoming a real headache for farmers across the country. And it is curious because, if we look at the data, the truth is that the European rabbit entered the red list of threatened species from the IUCN in 2019. Can you be endangered and an indiscriminate pest at the same time? And the answer is yes, of course yes. A few days ago, it was the Union of Farmers and Ranchers of Castilla la Mancha the one that warned that “the proliferation of rabbits is a problem that has been going on for ten years, they speak of a ‘pest’ that is threatening olive groves and pistachio and almond trees, and they demand that the populations of these animals be controlled.” It is not an anecdotal impression, in a sectoral report points out that rabbits account for 64% of agricultural insurance payments for wildlife damage and averages of tens of thousands of hectares damaged per year are cited. And yet, the decline of the rabbit at a general level it’s clear. And that not only impacts the “bug” itself: whether we like it or not, there is the base of the food chain of more than 30 species (from the Iberian lynx to the imperial eagle) and its disaster alters the functioning of the Mediterranean forest. He’s been altering it for decades. Because what is clear is that this is not something recent. The decline of the European rabbit is associated with myxomatosisfirst (mid-20th century); then continue with the rabbit hemorrhagic disease in the 80s; and is complicated by the arrival in 2012 of a new variant (RHDV2) that affects populations just when they were beginning to recover. To this we must add the changes in the landscape and the disappearance of boundaries, fallow lands and traditional shelters. However, when God closes a door he opens a window. And, despite the general decline, rabbits have known how to use the gaps in human infrastructure to create authentic breeding sites. The slopes and shoulders of the roads have become tremendously favorable habitats (and even in motion vectors) and areas with constant food (irrigation/crops) are natural attractors of these reduced populations. That is to say, the explanation is simple: the populations are smaller, but they have been rearranged in areas that cause more damage to farmers. And thus, the conflict is served. While conservationists and scientists ask to recover the rabbit in the mountains, farmers ask to expel it from its areas of influence. But the curious thing is that both sides are partly right and we do not have stories that allow us to understand what is happening. Something that is also happening with all the bugs on the mountain. Image | Sönke Biehl In Xataka | In 1940 Japan removed this island from the maps to keep its activities secret. Now your creatures are dying

They have found a bacteria capable of increasing your risk

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We often think of the health of our mouth as something completely isolated that has no more significance than the odious cavities that we get. forced to go to the dentist or the bad breath. However, science has been warning for years that the mouth is the gateway to much more complex systems, such as the possibility that a bacteria from our gums travel to the breast tissue and may accelerate tumor growth. An unwanted traveler. The protagonist of this new discovery is the bacteria Fusobacterium nucleatum, an old acquaintance of dentists. We are talking about an opportunistic bacteria that thrives in dental plaque and is one of the main culprits of periodontitis, which is undoubtedly one of the most recognized gum diseases. What the team led by Dipalo Sharma has recently demonstrated is that this bacteria does not stay still on the gumsbut it has the ability to travel through the body to the breast tissue or even also is already linked to colon cancer. Its effect. The study In this case, he used mice to simulate two different scenarios in order to see how this very common bacteria behaved. The first of them was to inject the bacteria into the breasts of healthy mice, where precancerous inflammatory lesions began to be seen. In the case of injecting into existing tumors is where the alarms go off, since in these mice the presence of the bacteria tripled the size of the cancer and caused lung metastases in 100% of the cases observed. How he does it. It’s the million-dollar question: how does a bacteria from the mouth know that it has to go to the chest and how does it manage to do so much damage? Science has found an explanation at a molecular level that begins with inflammation of the gums in periodontal disease, since this causes the bacteria to enter the bloodstream. Once in the stream, the bacteria begins to travel and takes advantage of a very specific protein, called Fap2, which acts like a key that searches for a specific lock: a sugar called Gal-GalNAc, which turns out to be very abundant on the surface of breast cancer cells. Creating a shield. Once the bacteria adheres to the tissue thanks to this specificity, it begins to colonize, but it also has the ability to suppress the cells in charge of our defense. And specifically those that defend us from cancer cells that bypass the body’s checkpoints. Furthermore, it induces direct DNA damage and preferentially colonizes cells that have mutations in the BRCA1 gene, exacerbating the risk in genetically predisposed people. Dental hygiene. The result of this research leads us to a very clear question: does not brushing your teeth cause cancer? Logically not. In the field of health, causality is not as simple as ‘do this and that happens’, but rather it works as an accumulation of risks that increase the chances of generating a problem such as cancer. A risk factor. In this case, science suggests that having periodontitis, due to poor hygiene sustained over time, is associated with an increase of around 22% in the risk of suffering from breast cancer. And it is not the first time that dental disease is a risk factor of this type. A well documented case is in the relationship between deep dental caries and bacterial endocarditisan infection of the inner lining of the heart. That is why the recommendation here is always to maintain good oral hygiene and always treat cavities as soon as possible when they appear. Images | Caroline L.M. In Xataka | AI is no longer a promise in breast cancer: the largest clinical trial confirms that it detects more and reduces the burden on the radiologist

so you can see if you live in an area that is at risk

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Let’s tell you how to look at areas at risk of flooding with the new experimental map created by Google. With this tool, you can navigate and zoom into any area of ​​the world to see where there are dangers of extreme flash floods, with special interest in those river and sudden floods. For example, at the time of writing this article we find that a good part of Spain cannot absorb even one more dropwhich makes the storm feast expected in February be especially dangerous. You can see this on the Google map, especially in the west of the country. Google Flood Risk Map To enter this map you have to go to the website sites.research.google/floods. This will open a world map, with a column on the right where you can turn visualizations on or off. By default they will be shown above all areas most in danger of flash flooding what’s in the world. On this map you will be able to zoom in or activate a hybrid map to see satellite photos of the areas. You can get closer to the area you want, where you will see colored dots information that indicates the danger of flooding in each area. Here, if you click on any of the points On the left you will see a window with expanded information, especially seeing how the dangers evolve and from what source the information is obtained. In Xataka Basics | V16 beacon map: how to use it to see which ones are activated in real time in Spain

The biggest geopolitical risk on the planet is not Greenland. It’s a smaller island with a disturbing neighbor: Taiwan

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Throughout the cold warthere were points on the map whose real value was not measured by their size, but by what could be triggered if someone tried to force the situation. Today, one of those places once again concentrates gazes, calculations and uncomfortable silences among the great powers. and it is not in Greenlandbut on a smaller island. The global risk enclave. The tension between United States and China is concentrating increasingly evident in Taiwan, a territory small in size but enormous in strategic consequences. While Washington allows itself dramatize scenarios secondary in the Arctic, Chinese military maneuvers around the island they have been become routineincreasingly aggressive and similar to real blocking or maximum pressure tests. The absence of clear and quick responses from the White House projects a dangerous sign in a context where deterrence depends less on formal declarations than on immediate political reflections. The deterrence that is called into question. The contrast between Trump’s political lukewarmness and the warnings of the US military apparatus itself has opened a visible crack. The Telegraph said that Pentagon commanders have been warning for some time that China is preparing to be able to fight and win a conflict over Taiwan before the end of the decade, although that diagnosis does not always translate into credible public messages. This dissonance reduces the perceived cost of a Chinese action and leaves open the possibility of a calculation error on Xi Jinping’s part, especially if he interprets American caution as a lack of will. Taiwan as a key piece. Taiwan’s importance to the United States is not symbolic, but rather structural. We are talking about an advanced democracy in a region dominated by authoritarian regimes, one that houses the core of world production advanced semiconductor and is part of the first island chain that limits military projection China in the Pacific. From that perspective, the fall would be a direct blow to the global economy, Western technological superiority and Washington’s strategic credibility in Asia. Taiwan Navy It’s not 1996 anymore. Unlike previous crises, when American naval and air superiority was overwhelming, today the balance is much tighter. China has built a navy larger than the American in number of ships, an air force with hundreds of fifth generation fighters and, above all, a massive arsenal conventional missiles capable of hitting bases, ports and fleets at great distances. Although the United States continues to spend more on defense, lower Chinese industrial costs and its geographic proximity to the theater of operations significantly erode that advantage. The “logistics” weapon. The New York Times recalled in a column that one of the factors that moderated Beijing’s behavior for years was its dependence on critical raw materials from countries aligned with the West, especially Australian iron ore. That brake is weakening as China secure supplies alternatives from Africa, reducing their vulnerability to sanctions or blockades in the event of conflict. The result: an environment in which the economic costs of a war over Taiwan, while enormous, are already They are not so deterrent for Beijing as they were in the past. No clear winner. The open simulations and internal leaks From Washington they agree on a most uncomfortable diagnosis: if necessary, a war over Taiwan it would be devastating even for those who managed to impose their immediate objective. China could fail in invasion, but the United States and its allies would pay a military price not seen since World War II, with massive losses of aircraft, ships and personnel. Taiwan, even if it managed to resist, would be deeply damaged as a country and as a global economic engine, dragging the world into a prolonged crisis. The island that weighs the most. All this explains why Taiwan is, by far, the increased geopolitical risk of the planet at this time and a strategic priority, surely far above scenarios like greenland. It is not about territory, or not only, but about credibility, balance of power and stability of the international system between two superpowers. And, on that board, every gesture of ambiguity counts, and every sign of weakness can bring closer a conflict that no one would win on paperbut whose consequences would affect everyone. Image | Pexels, 總統府 In Xataka | China has just shown the world that it “plays” in another league: it only needs one soldier to control 200 drones in combat In Xataka | China’s best weapon doesn’t fire a single bullet: 300km ‘moving wall’ to close sea routes instantly

How Venezuelan crude oil became a risk

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On December 14, 1922, the Los Barrosos-2 well in Venezuela exploded into a 60-meter geyser of crude oil that took a week to stop. As CNN remembersthat ecological disaster set the country on a path of dazzling wealth and political turmoil that has led, a century later, in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro by US forces. While in Washington they celebrate the “Donroe Doctrine”in the control centers of the Cartagena and Bilbao refineries there is a different tension. For Spain, Venezuela is not just foreign policy news; It is an economic black hole of 1,160 million euros. A deficit out of control. The commercial relationship between Spain and Venezuela has gone from being a balanced exchange to a financial abyss. According to data collected by El EconomistaIn 2024, Spain registered a trade deficit of 1,160 million euros with the Caribbean country. It is triple that in 2022 and the highest figure in the last 18 years. The cause is an alarming asymmetry. While our sales barely reach 230 million euros, our purchases have multiplied by 22 since 2021. Spain has become Venezuela’s fourth best customer in the world, behind the US, India and China. However, it is not a diversified purchase but 94.59% of what we import is oil and derivatives. Repsol: the jewel exposed on the board. If there is a proper name in this conflict, it is Repsol. According to Expansionthe Spanish oil company is the company with the most money at stake in the area. Venezuela is not just another asset; is its second largest source of reserves tested in the world (256 million barrels), only behind the United States. This represents almost 15% of the company’s entire underground treasure. But the risk is not only what is underground, but what is owed. Repsol’s equity exposure due to commercial debts of the state-owned PDVSA amounted to 330 million euros in June 2025. In addition, the Spanish oil company extracts 33% of the gas consumed by Venezuela. As the same source points out, without Repsol gas, the Venezuelan economy would come to a standstill, but without Venezuela’s legal security, the Spanish company’s balance sheet could suffer a “hole” of more than 13 billion euros in reserve valuation. The paradox of “heavy food.” Many wonder why Spanish companies insist on a country with obsolete infrastructure. The answer is technical. Venezuela’s oil is “extra-heavy”, dense as tar. Ironically, the oil that the US extracts through fracking is “too good” (light). To produce diesel and asphalt efficiently, Gulf Coast and Spanish refineries need to blend their light crude with Venezuela’s dense “stuff.” However, this is a “gas station without hoses.” The crude oil arrives “dirty” (with excess salt, water and metals) because PDVSA has dismantled pipelines to sell them as scrap. This turns refining into an expensive and risky process that only companies with decades of roots, such as Repsol – since 1993 – dare to manage. The wall of 100,000 million. Trump’s optimism, which already mobilizes private funds of 2 billion dollars led by former Chevron executives, clashes with technical reality. In fact, analysts consulted by The Wall Street Journal They warn that there will not be an immediate miracle. Rebuilding the sector requires an investment of $10 billion a year for a decade. The infrastructure is so deteriorated that PDVSA acknowledges that its pipelines have not been modernized in half a century. The total repair bill amounts to $100 billion. The Trump factor and the “Donroe Doctrine.” In an analysis by market expert Robert Armstrong highlights a paradigm shift: Trump has shown that his geopolitical ideology is above market stability. By capturing Maduro, he has put his legacy at stake for the objective of controlling the energy flow from Alaska to Patagonia. This movement a priori benefits Repsol, which had been negotiating for months to avoid the export blockade. However, the risk is that the US will prioritize the landing of its own colossi (Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips) displacing the European partners that, such as Repsol or the Italian Eni, stayed when the Americans fled during Chávez’s expropriations. A prize with small print. Spain has before it a historic opportunity to recover its investments and lead the reconstruction, given its historical roots. But the 1.16 billion “hole” is only the symptom of a deeper illness: dependence on an asset that requires massive investment to be profitable in a world that is already beginning to say goodbye to fossil fuels. Venezuela continues to be the largest gas station in the world, but today it is a dilapidated facility whose repair bill threatens to stain the balance sheets of the large Spanish company if the transition is not “surgical.” Image | Pexels and Repsol Xataka | Venezuela has shown that the US can find anyone no matter how hidden they are. You only have to invoke one name: RQ-170

V-16 beacons run the risk of being left without connectivity if their manufacturer goes bankrupt. Don’t worry, there is a solution

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You may have read it on social networks: you buy a connected V-16 beacon, you go years without using it and, before you know it, the company that sold it to you has gone bankrupt, has stopped paying for its servers and now you have a nice paperweight because, without connectivity with DGT 3.0, that beacon has become illegal. It’s true? No. Plain and simple. When we buy a connected V-16 beacon, the manufacturer assures us that the connectivity is guaranteed for at least 12 years. The manufacturer may offer more connectivity time, as an incentive to purchase, but it cannot offer less. This, like the luminosity of the beacon or the 30 minutes that it must be in operation for at least, is one of the demands that Traffic has set to manufacturers so they can sell their beacons and we let’s buy them with enough peace of mind to be following the rules. Sure, but… what if the company goes bankrupt? It is one of the questions that some users have asked and that has been answered by accounts on social networks like Twitter. It is stated that when a connected V-16 beacon is activated and the required 100 seconds pass, the following process is launched: Protocol A: the beacon sends the data exclusively to the manufacturer’s servers Protocol B: Data leaves the manufacturer’s servers and is forwarded to the National Access Point for Traffic and Mobility Information which is where all activations and any other type of emergency are reflected. The response points out that, in the event that the manufacturer stops selling the connected V-16 beacon, the connection would be broken and therefore we would be left with a luminous paperweight because without connectivity that light is not legal. Insured. To confirm these details, we have contacted some of the companies that manufacture or sell these types of beacons. César Basterrechea explains to us from Atressa Automotivewho have their own beacons, that the information is not true and clarifies what would happen if their company went bankrupt and stopped paying for the beacons. First, he points out, the manufacturer has to register in DGT 3.0 and request a connectivity license. When this requirement is met, the following happens: “My operator sends me the data generated by one of my beacons through an APN and which is protected within a private VPN, the information reaching my Cloud once received, we send it through a VPN with a digital certificate to the DGT 3.0. If my company closed tomorrow, my operator would redirect the data emitted from my beacons to another APN of its own and through its own VPN it would send the data to the DGT cloud” With these words he explains, therefore, that it is the operator that offers its support if the company stops paying for the servers and, therefore, cannot offer the service. They confirm it to us. Asked to the other party, the answer is the same. In Xataka We have contacted Orange, an operator that offers connectivity in different connected V-16 beacons on the market. The company confirms the above, although it points out that, exactly, it is not that the operator keeps the servers of the bankrupt company, it only guarantees that the signal reaches DGT 3.0. “The communication architecture has been defined so that there are two ways to send the data to DGT 3.0: through the manufacturer’s cloud services (which must always be used if there are no incidents) or directly from the operator if the manufacturer’s cloud service is not operational (manufacturer bankruptcy or massive drop in its cloud service)” It’s not easy. The truth is that although we have confirmation from this beacon manufacturer And getting there is not easy. In the Resolution of November 30, 2021 which details the requirements that a V-16 beacon must have connected to be valid, it specifies that the manufacturer must have support to offer the service if it cannot be performed, but nowhere does it specify whether this company should be the operator, as Atressa Automotive tells us. This text explains the above-mentioned details of protocols A and B. Subsequently, the following is stated: The implementation of a device with these characteristics requires having a standard channel and a common language. Additionally, defining this standard also makes it easier for a third party to perform these functions if necessary due to the existence of a problem in the information systems of a manufacturer. The data model that the messages that V-16 devices send to their manufacturers’ information services must comply with is defined below. a hoax. Although with the connected V-16 beacons we have had a lot of controversy and we know that there are even those who has demonstrated cybersecurity risksThe truth is that this time we are facing a hoax. The DGT has actively repeated that when we buy a connected V-16 beacon we are guaranteed access to DGT 3.0 for 12 years. And although the protocol does not clearly detail whether a specific company must take charge (operators, other manufacturers…), it does specify that it must guarantee backup to keep the service active. Photo | DGT In Xataka | V16 beacon without eSIM or connectivity: what the DGT says about them from 2026

‘Avatar 3’ is going to be a movie so disproportionately expensive that it runs the risk of destroying and losing money

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‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ is already, as has happened with all previous installments of the franchise, one of the most anticipated films of the year. Each new installment breaks box office records, and yet James Cameron’s statements are more pessimistic each year about the continuity of the series. Are you sure that ‘Avatar’ is as good a deal as it seems? We snooped into his finances. The paradox. ‘Avatar: Fire and Ashes’ arrives wrapped in an economic paradox: its production budget exceeds 400 million dollarsa figure that places it among the most expensive films ever filmed. And yet, its own director is not clear if the business is worth it. Cameron has been unusually frank about his franchise’s finances and he put the question bluntly: “Will we make money on Avatar 3? Surely some. But the real question is what kind of profit margin there will be, if any, and whether that will be enough of an incentive to continue in this universe.” The wild mathematics of break-even. The arithmetic of ‘Fire and Ashes’ defies standard Hollywood logic. With 400 million in production expenses and a marketing budget that analysts place between 100 and 175 million, it would need to exceed $1 billion at the box office simply to break even or break evenaccording to the more or less assumed industry rule that a film must gross 2.5 times its production budget to be profitable. The case of ‘The sense of water’. The previous installment of ‘Avatar’ gives us some previous lessons on the subject. The sequel cost more than $1 billion in total costs: $400 million in production, another $400 in global marketing, $300 million in shares for Cameron and producer Jon Landau, plus cast salaries, residuals and general expenses. Cameron was not exaggerating when declared that ‘Avatar 2’ was “the worst business case in the history of cinema” and that it needed to become “the third or fourth highest-grossing film of all time” simply to not lose money. The film fulfilled that apocalyptic objective: raised 2,320 million and finally generated 531.7 million net profit. But that deceptively solid figure hides a crucial detail: The studios do not receive all the money from the box office. Movie theaters take approximately 50% of US domestic revenue, 40% from international markets, and up to 75% in China. That is, of those 2.32 billion, Disney actually received just over 1 billion. The rest stayed at the box office. The crisis of inflated budgets. ‘Avatar’ is one of the most visible symptoms of a disease that affects all of Hollywood. The industry has a systemic problem of out-of-control budgets, which affects such well-known films as ‘Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker‘ ($490 million), ‘Jurassic World: Dominion’ (584 million) or ‘Mission: Impossible – Deadly Sentence: Part One’ (400 million). A analysis of the causes It leads us to multiple factors that explain this phenomenon: inflation has increased the value of the dollar by 15% since 2020, making all aspects of production more expensive. But in addition, streaming platforms altered the economy of stars, accustoming them to higher initial charges, demands that they later transfer to traditional productions. And there is also a visual effects arms race: franchises like superheroes try to surpass each other in spectacularity, and infect the rest of the blockbusters. For this reason they are films that “might not make money even with objectively decent box offices.” The unique case of ‘Avatar’. James Cameron invests in developing pioneering technology that then benefits the entire industry: the underwater motion capture that Cameron and Weta FX took a year and a half to perfect for ‘The Sense of Water’, now reduce costs for the sequels being already invented. But the budget escalation is relentless: ‘Avatar’ cost between 237-280 million, ‘Avatar 2’ between 350-460 million and ‘Avatar 3’ exceeds 400 million. The franchise is a guarantee of box office success, but the profit margins are worryingly narrow. In Xataka | Cameron’s ‘Titanic’ was going to be a flop. Until a trailer that broke several Hollywood rules changed the narrative

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