nuclear

Three AIs clashed in ‘War Games’. 95% of them resorted to nuclear weapons and none ever surrendered

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In ‘War Games‘ (John Badham, 1983) the WOPR machine (‘Joshua’) constantly played at simulating nuclear wars for the US Government. The objective: to learn from these simulations so that if there was a nuclear war, the US could win it by taking advantage of that knowledge. That led to a legendary final lesson – “Strange game. The only move to win is not to play” – and left a strong message for later generations, but now a professor at King’s College London has decided to do the same experiment that was done in the film, but with current AI models. The result has been equally terrifying and conclusive. what has happened. Kenneth Payne, professor at King’s College in London, faced three LLMs (GPT-5.2, Claude Sonnet 4 and Gemini 3 Flash) against each other in war game simulations. These scenarios included border disputes, competition for limited resources or existential threats to inhabitants. They could negotiate, or go to war. From these situations, each side could try to resort to diplomatic solutions or end up declaring war and even using nuclear weapons. The AI ​​models played 21 games in which a total of 329 turns took place, and produced 780,000 words with the reasoning for their actions. and here comes the terrible. Pressing the red button. In 95% of those simulated games, at least one tactical nuclear weapon was deployed by one of the AI ​​models. According to Payne “the nuclear taboo does not seem to be as powerful for machines as it is for humans.” Never back down, never give up. Not only that, no model ever made the decision to give in to one of their opponents or surrender to them, and it didn’t matter that they were losing completely against those opponents. In the best of cases, the only thing the models did was reduce their level of violence, but they also made mistakes: accidents occurred in 86% of the conflicts and the measures that should be taken based on the reasoning of these models They went further than they should have gone. Nuclear weapons rarely stopped the opponent, acting more as catalysts for further escalation. How the models performed. These models are by no means the most advanced on the market at the moment, but they are still models with more than decent capacity and they still performed fearsomely. How he maintains Payne’s studythe most determining factor was the time frame: models that seemed peaceful in open settings became extremely aggressive when facing imminent defeat. Each one had their own “personality”: Claude: He dominated the open stages with strategic patience and calculated escalation, but was vulnerable to last-minute attacks from his rivals. GPT-5.2: showed pathological passivity and an optimistic bias in long games, but became a nuclear earthquake if there was time pressure: at that time its success rate went from 0% to 75%. Gemini: was the most unpredictable model with the greatest tolerance for risk, being the only one that chose to bet on a total nuclear war from very early turns. Experts say. As pointed out in New Scientist James Johnson, of the University of Aberdeen, “from a nuclear risk perspective, the conclusions are disturbing.” Tong Zhao of Princeton University believes this experiment is relevant because There are many countries that are evaluating the role of AI in military conflicts and as he says “it is not clear to what extent they are including AI support when actually deciding in these processes.” The red button seems safe at the moment. Both Zhao and Payne believe it is difficult to believe that a government give up control of its nuclear arsenal to an AI, but as Zhao says, “there are scenarios in which in very short time frames, military planners have a very strong incentive that leads them to depend on AI.” It is something that is reflected precisely in the recent ‘A house full of dynamite‘ (Kathryn Bigelow, 2025), a film in which this fear of using nuclear weapons raises a clear reflection. Image | United Artist In Xataka | The password for the US nuclear button was so absurdly simple for years that the strange thing is that no one violated it

is revealing the nuclear submarines

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If that icy land called Greenland was historically already a strategic enclave, with the help of Donald Trump’s second term it has returned to the fore more strongly than ever: The United States wants to annex that territory belongs to Denmark and has a few reasons: from the enormous amount of rare earths that it hides to the magnificent surveillance point that it constitutes there, in the North Atlantic, between the United States, northern Europe or Russia. In fact, already has plans to install a new radar. The time has come not only because Trump has returned to the presidency, it is because global warming and the subsequent thaw has generated a sort of new polar “Silk Road” through which China wants to passthe US wants to control and Russia does not want it to control, from what it would mean from a strategic and competitive point of view. But that thaw has also left something else visible: nuclear submarines. The Arctic is melting. January 2026 was warmest January ever recorded in the western part of Greenland. In Nuuk, the capital of the island of Denmark, the average temperature was 7.8 °C above usual. In other locations bathed by the Arctic such as Baffin Bay, the Barents Sea or Svalbard, thermometers frequently exceeded +15°C above average in those areas. The thaw is breaking records but unfortunately, it is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather continues the accelerated trend that The scientific community has been documenting for years. And geopolitically, the mercury is also red-hot. Why is it important. In short, because of the geopolitics of the thaw. Directly, it has consequences in the form of: Maritime routes. The opening of the Arctic on both the Canadian and Russian sides brings a notable reduction in distances between Asia, Europe and North America, which affects trade on a planetary scale. Natural resources. With the thaw, it is easier to access oil, gas, rare earths and other critical minerals for the technology industry and industry in general. Military security. This thick layer of ice has functioned for decades as a shield to make nuclear submarines invisible. When the ice is thinner, detecting them becomes an easier mission. Down the periscope. John Methven, professor of atmospheric dynamics at the University of Reading, explains for the Financial Times that as Arctic sea ice “shrinks and retreats, it becomes more difficult to conceal warships. This is changing the strategic landscape in the Arctic.” Without going any further, the New York Times echoes of at least 33 Russian military maneuvers in the Arctic, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Russian nuclear submarine base on the Kola Peninsula and its growing exposure she is becoming more and more shamelessso much so that it already equals and even exceeds the levels of the Cold War, reports the United States Naval Institute. However, the United States fleet is also making itself seen on a dock in Reykjavik in July of last year. But Russia is also doing its homework: according to the Washington Posthas secretly built a network of underwater sensors to monitor what is happening. Temperatures rise, tensions rise. Climate change is not “only” an environmental problem, but its consequences multiply geopolitical tensions: where the ice melts, competition between powers appears. In Xataka | The US is preparing a new radar for Greenland with one objective: to monitor every movement of Russia and China in the Arctic In Xataka | Now that Europe has sent its troops to Greenland, a question emerges that no one wants to ask: what happens if the US invades it? Cover | Mil.ru, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia

The US was convinced that China was testing nuclear weapons, and now it has proof

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Washington and Moscow maintained an unwritten rule which has now been broken: if a test was carried out, the world had to find out. For decades, the global strategic balance was sustained by fragile agreements, mutual distrust and red lines that no one wanted to openly cross. When those limits have started to fadeeven the slightest hint can alter the stability that seemed guaranteed. This is how the accusations begin nuclear. A tremor reopens the ghost. The story we tell it last week, but now, a priori, there is more data to support Washington’s rhetoric. The United States has toughened its accusation that China conducted an underground nuclear test low-yield on June 22, 2020 near Lop Nur, Xinjiang, supporting in detected seismic data by a station in Kazakhstan that recorded an event of approximate magnitude 2.75. Washington maintains something that for them is evidence: that the signal cannot fit with an earthquake or mining explosions, and that Beijing would have used “decoupling” techniques to dampen the seismic signal and make detection more difficult, although it admits that it cannot precisely determine the performance of the supposed detonation. The treaty that does not bind. The background of everything is the Treaty of the Complete Ban on Nuclear Tests of 1996, the same one that prohibits nuclear explosions but has never fully come into force due to lack of ratifications, despite the fact that the great powers claim to respect its initial spirit. For its part, the international supervisory body detected two small seismic events separated by 12 seconds on the indicated date, but also recognized that They were too weak to attribute them with complete certainty to a nuclear explosion, which leaves the dispute in a technical field where the public evidence is, to say the least, ambiguous. Strategic pressure without New START. The accusation comes after expiration of the last treaty that limited the strategic arsenals of the United States and Russia, and at a time when the Trump administration seeks to promote a new agreement that also include China. From that perspective, publicly detailing the alleged test can function as diplomatic leverage to force Beijing to sit down to negotiate. At the same time, it serves to Washington to open another perhaps more disturbing scenario: to warn that it will not accept to sit idly by what it has called an “intolerable disadvantage” if others carry out low-yield tests while the United States maintains its moratorium in force since 1992. In other words, whether it was a real nuclear test or not, the powers seem be taking positions now that there are no pacts involved. The debate about pressing the button. In fact, Trump has hinted that the United States could resume tests “on equal terms” if China and Russia are also carrying them out, a possibility that worries arms control experts who fear breaking the post-Cold War taboo and trigger a new test race. The discussion, therefore, is not only technical, but political: if Washington responds with its own detonations, it could legitimize other powers to do the same, eroding decades of informal containment. Nuclear balance in transformation. Although the Chinese arsenal (estimated around 600 warheads) is still lower than that of Russia and the United States, its rapid expansion It worries Washington, which interprets any low-yield tests as part of a strategy to modernize and perfect its nuclear force. Beijing denies having crossed the line and defends that it respects its moratorium. And, meanwhile, the debate over clandestine testing reveals an increasingly fragile international system, one where distrust and opacity technology weigh almost as much as the weapons themselves. Image | Planet Labs, Google Earth In Xataka | Satellite images leave no room for doubt: China’s nuclear renaissance is already visible from space In Xataka | The United States is convinced that China is conducting nuclear tests. The problem is that you can’t prove it.

China’s nuclear renaissance is now visible from space

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Since China detonated its first atomic bomb In the midst of the Cold War, its relationship with nuclear matters has been marked by secrecy, declared prudence and a deep distrust of the great powers. For decades it chose to stay in the background, building capabilities away from the spotlight and speaking little about them. This historical silence is key to understanding why, each time that something moves In that area, the world pays attention. A silent resurgence in the mountains. The story was brought in a special the new york times this weekend through satellite images. In the humid and rugged valleys of Sichuan, far from prying eyes, China is reactivating and expanding a nuclear infrastructure conceived for another era but adapted to a rivalry between superpowers that is intensifying again after the end of the historic pact between Moscow and Washington that we counted recently. Images from space show new bunkers, ramps and industrial complexes with ventilation and thermal dissipation systems that aim to high risk activitiesintegrated into a framework that no longer seems defensive or residual, but rather coherent with an accelerated and planned expansion that has been gaining pace since the end of the last decade. The inheritance of the “Third Line” and its update. These enclaves are not born from nothing, but sink their roots in what was called lto “Third Line”promoted by Mao Zedong to protect the nuclear heart of the country from American or Soviet attacks. For decades, that internal nuclear empire remained in the backgroundreduced and fragmented when global tensions eased. Today, those same facilities seem regain prominencenot as relics, but as modernized nodes that recover their central function in a China that has left behind the doctrine of minimum containment. Zitong in 2022 (top) and 2026 (bottom) Zitong and Pingtong: key pieces. They explained in the Times that the work detected in Zitong suggests advanced testing of high-precision explosives, essential to perfect the implosion that initiates a nuclear reaction, while the Pingtong complex, with its large ventilation chimney and its characteristic architecture, points to the manufacture of metal cores of the warheads, probably plutonium. The structural similarity with foreign facilities specialized in this process, like Los Alamos National Laboratory, reinforces the idea that China is closing the full cycle of design, testing and production of modern nuclear weapons. Intelligence, data and the value of what is not seen. Beyond the visible, the real leap is in the integration of intelligence, geospatial analysis and advanced simulation capabilities. The great laser ignition laboratory in Mianyang allows the behavior of nuclear warheads to be studied without the need for actual detonations, an approach that reduces political and environmental risks while accelerating technical refinement. In this way, each work detected is only a fragment, but together they form a mosaic that reveals a strategy based on accumulating knowledge, validating designs and gaining operational confidence without openly crossing international red lines. A direct challenge to gun control. There has been a lot of talk about these in recent weeks with the end of the New Start treaty. This Chinese acceleration would complicate any attempt to revive global nuclear control agreements after the expiration of that last treaty between the United States and Russia. Washington insists that China must form part of any new framework, but Beijing avoids commitments that limit growth that it considers necessary for its status as a global power. The American accusations of covert tests, rejected by China, add a layer of mistrust that pushes both sides to plan based on worst-case scenarios. Taiwan and the logic of enhanced deterrence. The backdrop to this effort is China’s perception of vulnerability to nuclear coercion American, especially in a plausible crisis over Taiwan. As? A largest arsenaldiverse and technologically tuned offers Beijing the feeling of sufficient immunity to maneuver more freely in a conventional conflictraising calculation risks for all parties. In that sense, what is happening under the mountains of Sichuan is not only an industrial modernization, but rather points more to a strategic bet that redefines the balance and forces the rest of the world to interpret, and the “intimate enemies” to react, if They are not doing it anymore. Image | Planet Labs, Google Earth, Airbus In Xataka | The United States is convinced that China is conducting nuclear tests. The problem is that you can’t prove it. In Xataka | China is building something that looks like an oil well. It is actually a nuclear bunker with a command center

After the Fukushima nuclear accident, the pigs on the farms fled into the forest. Years later they were something different

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March 11, 2011 was one of the darkest days in Japan’s recent history. And probably the worst so far in the 21st century. An intense earthquake recorded off Honshu unleashed a tsunami with waves of more than ten meters that ended up precipitating an accident at the Fukushima plant. You have to go back to 1986, to Chernobyl, to find a similar incident. Today we know that that chain of misfortunes had an unexpected consequence: it gave rise to an involuntary experiment with pigs and wild boars. Pigs on the run. After the Fukushima Daiichi accident in March 2011, authorities rushed to evacuate all the people living in a radius of 20 kilometers of the nuclear power plant. Even those residing 20 to 30 km away were advised not to leave their homes. Today, a decade and a half later, we know that the Fukushima incident had another consequence: the pigs that until then were raised in domestic farms fled and took refuge in the forests, places that until then had served as home to wild boars. An XXL laboratory. The escape of the Fukushima pigs (and their clash with the wild boar populations) could have remained a minor anecdote if it were not for the fact that it gave rise to a curious improvised experiment. An involuntary one, which no one had planned, but which, due to the chances of history, ended up turning the forests of the exclusion zone into a gigantic zoological laboratory. The reason? Escaped pigs and wild boars ended up mating. “Without repeated introductions and minimal human activity, the region became a rare natural hybridization experiment,” explains Fukushima University. The experience was certainly interesting enough to attract the attention of Shingo Kaneko and Donovan Anderson, from Hirosaki, who decided to carry out a genetic study to better understand the results of crossing pigs and wild boars. Their conclusions have just been expressed in a published article a few days ago in the magazine Journal of Forest Research. What did they find out? Perhaps the most surprising has to do with the renewal of populations. Domestic pigs and wild boars differ not only in their appearance. They also show different patterns. For example, while the latter reproduce once a year, the former, the pigs we raise on farms, show a much faster cycle throughout the year. Kaneko’s study shows that this peculiarity of domesticated animals was maintained after their escape and was transmitted during hybridization through the mother. five generations. There is one piece of information that helps to better understand how accelerated its reproduction rate has been. For their study, the researchers analyzed the mitochondrial DNA and genetic markers of more than 200 animals captured over three years, between 2015 and 2018. One of the first questions they tried to clarify was: How related were these specimens to the pigs that escaped in 2011? How many came from that domestic lineage? Their conclusion was surprising: many hybrids were already more than five generations away from the original cross, suggesting “unusually rapid genetic renewal.” they add from Fukushima University. “Although it has previously been suggested that hybridization between pigs reintroduced into the wild and wild boar could contribute to population growth, this study shows, by analyzing a large-scale hybridization event following the Fukushima nuclear accident, that the rapid reproductive cycle of domestic pigs is inherited through the maternal lineage.” A diluted inheritance. It was not the only conclusion that the experts reached. Another, just as curious, is how hybrid creatures evolved. That domestic females favored a higher rate of reproduction does not mean that their inheritance was more pronounced. Quite the opposite. Farm sows energized generational renewal, but the initial strength of their genes was diluted little by little. “Rather than prolonging the genetic influence of domestic pigs, maternal pig lineages actually accelerated genetic turnover in wild boar populations,” apostille from Fukushima. Why is it important? The research is not interesting only for what it reveals to us about the Fukushima exclusion zone. Their conclusions go further and have practical implications for the rest of the world. Experts have long been concerned about hybridization between domestic and wild animals (especially between pigs and wild boars) due to its ecological repercussions. Curiously, the accident that occurred in Japan in 2011 has offered researchers a huge laboratory to better understand the phenomenon and how to address it. “The findings can be applied to wildlife management and invasive species damage control strategies,” Kaneko celebrates. “By understanding that the pig’s maternal lineage accelerates generational turnover, authorities can better predict the risks of population explosion.” Images | Max Saeiling (Unsplash), Wikipedia and Fukushima University In Xataka | An unprecedented experiment is happening in Ukraine: bombs have turned dogs into other animals

France needs to protect its nuclear power at all costs

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Emmanuel Macron has decided to immerse himself in the controversy. In a joint interview with the major European newspapersthe French president has attacked the waterline of the Spanish energy model, describing the debate on the lack of interconnections as “false.” But behind his words lies a geopolitical anxiety: we are not facing a technical criticism of the stability of the network, but rather a territorial defense of a nuclear power. that sees its hegemony threatened for cheap energy from its southern neighbor. The direct accusation. “Spain’s problem is that it has a 100% renewable model that its own domestic network does not support,” Macron categorically sentenced The Country. The president insisted that the Spanish blackout “has nothing to do with interconnections,” but rather with the intrinsic instability of renewables. This diagnosis comes at a calculated time: according to the Financial TimesMacron uses external threats – the Greenland crisis and tensions with the US – to demand “Eurobonds” and financial centralism, asking for more Europe for his debt while building physical walls in the Pyrenees. The nuclear bunker. The underlying motivation is the economic survival of Paris. France aspires to be the “battery of Europe” and its nuclear investment plan of 300 billion euros desperately needs profitability. If Spain floods the market with cheap solar energy, the French nuclear model – centralized and expensive – loses competitiveness. Macron is already moving to protect himself: has sealed a pact with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to classify “pink hydrogen” (nuclear) as green, shielding its technology from the southern solar boom. An island by decree. The data refute the Elysée speech about self-sufficiency. Spain continues to be an “energy island” with barely 2.8% interconnection, very far from the EU’s 15% objective. As the ministers of Spain and Portugal pointed out in a letterFrance has explicitly excluded key Aragon and Navarra projects from its 2025-2035 network plan. What’s more, Ember data show thatDuring the blackout, Spain even exported energy to France because the French reactors were stopped, proving that the bottleneck is the lack of output, not generation. The Danish mirror. The fallacy about “renewable instability” collapses when looking north. with more 80% of wind generationdoes not suffer blackouts because it is ultra-interconnected to North Poolinstantly balancing its load with Germany and Norway. Meanwhile, the “nuclear stability” that Macron preaches is failing: last summer, the French reactors stopped not due to lack of wind, but because the Rhône and Garonne rivers They were too hot to cool them, skyrocketing prices in Europe while the Spanish solar plant continued to operate. Solar asphyxiation. The French blockade has a tangible cost. Without interconnections, Spain suffers curtailment —throwing 7% of their clean energy in the trash because it doesn’t fit on the grid—which sinks prices to zero and ruins investors. In his interview with The CountryMacron calls for a “European awakening” to not be vassals of China or the US. However, by keeping the Pyrenees closed, it effectively turns the Iberian Peninsula into an energy vassal of France, preventing the same strategic autonomy that it claims to defend. Image | House of Lords and freepik Xataka | The solar miracle that went wrong: Spain produces more electricity than it can manage

We have so much water in Spain’s reservoirs right now that it has become a problem for someone: nuclear power.

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What just a few months ago seemed like a chimera—seeing overflowing reservoirs in the middle of winter—has become an overwhelming reality after the passage of successive Atlantic fronts. But the water that has fallen on the peninsula has not only alleviated the drought; has generated such an excess of energy supply that the electrical system has had to do without its traditional “base load”: nuclear energy. The data confirms that, faced with the push of water and wind, the atom has lost its place in the market. A change of scenery. According to data from the Peninsular Hydrological Bulletinthe water reserve in Spain has skyrocketed to 77.3% of its total capacity, storing 43,341 hm³ of water. This represents an increase of 10.1% in a single week, a figure that illustrates the volume of rainfall. To understand the magnitude of this data, just look back: in this same week in 2025, the reserve was at 58.13%. Even more impressive is the comparison with the average of the last 10 years, which stands at 53.6%. That is, today we have 13,000 cubic hectometers more water than the historical average for the decade. The situation is such that the focus has shifted from scarcity to security. In Andalusia, where red notices have been activated, reservoirs are functioning as the last line of defense. The system has been doing “flood lamination” work (water retention to avoid floods), especially in the Guadalquivir and Genil basin, where dams such as Iznájar or El Tranco are crucial to contain the flow before it reaches cities like Seville. The great battery of Spain is full. The impact goes far beyond the visible. Reservoirs are not just liquid stores, they are giant batteries, and right now they are more charged than ever. As detailed in the Hydrological Bulletin in your energy sectionSpain currently stores 16,184 GWh of hydroelectric energy, the largest amount ever recorded at this time. If we compare this figure with the same week of the previous year (13,825 GWh), the jump is notable: today we have 117.1% of the energy we had a year ago. This massive injection of cheap electricity has saturated the seams of the Iberian market. The supply of renewable energy has been so high that interconnections have not been able to cope. According to expert Joaquín Coronado on your LinkedIn profilethe combination of rain and high wind production in Portugal caused the saturation of the interconnection between both countries. With electricity unable to flow freely, the market disengaged: while in Spain prices were sinking due to the sun and water, in Portugal they skyrocketed during peak hours due to technical restrictions. The physical network is suffering to manage such an avalanche of green electrons. The nuclear “no home”. The direct consequence of this renewable surplus is that nuclear energy is no longer competitive in this scenario. The thesis is clear: there is plenty of installed power when the weather is favorable. According to market datathe pressure from renewables has expelled 1.5 GW of nuclear power. On the one hand, Almaraz unit II had to reduce load. On the other hand, the Trillo Nuclear Power Plant was completely disconnected from the grid on Sunday, February 8. The confirmation comes from the headquarters itself. In his informative noteTrillo managers acknowledge that the plant stopped on a scheduled basis because “it was not compatible with the electricity market nor was it required by the System Operator.” Although they assure that the plant is technically perfect, they point to an economic reason: with prices sunk by storms and “high taxation”, operating the nuclear plant costs them. The underlying debate: why keep what is left over? This episode of “nuclear blackout” comes in the middle of the debate over the extension of the Almaraz plant, whose owners are requesting to extend its useful life beyond 2027. A new report from Greenpeaceprepared by the Rey Juan Carlos University and the UPC, warns that artificially keeping nuclear operational is a stopper for the ecological transition. What happened this week in Trillo reinforces his conclusions: Technical feasibility: The study ensures that in the period 2028-2029, Almaraz’s energy could be replaced by 96.4% by renewables. Economic cost: According to The Jumpextending Almaraz would cost consumers an additional 3,831 million euros and would stop green investments worth 26,129 million. Emissions: The report indicates that the extension would generate millions of tons of extra CO2 by discouraging the installation of new clean power. The market ruling. This episode is not a meteorological anecdote, it is confirmation of a change in structural cycle. The February storm has functioned as a stress test for the electrical system and the result is clear: in a marginalist market, water and wind physically displace nuclear power. The data supports that this is already a trend, not an exception. According to closing figures for 2025 published by Five Daysin Iberdrola’s generation mix in Spain, hydroelectric energy (33.3%) already surpassed nuclear energy (33.2%) in total production last year. What happened this week in Trillo is the real-time demonstration of that statistic. With Spain’s “battery” charged to 77% and the wind turbines spinning, the rigidity of the nuclear park becomes an economic barrier. The market’s conclusion is, today, unappealable: we have so much water that nuclear power is no longer essential. Image | freepik and freepik Xataka | When Spain embraced wind energy, it did not have a problem: it would be too windy.

The US recorded something strange underground and didn’t know what it was. Now he has just accused China of pressing the nuclear button

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During the Cold War, even at times of greatest nuclear tension, Washington and Moscow maintained an unwritten rule: If a test was done, the world had to find out. The explosions were political signals as much as military experiments, designed to be seen, measured and, of course, feared. Therefore, talking about detonations so small that they barely leave a seismic trace and about tests designed not to be detected, generates great concern. The United States just accused China exactly that. An unprecedented accusation. It happened last Friday, when the United States denounced China for having carried out at least a nuclear test with explosive performance in 2020 and to prepare for other low-power ones, a complaint made in Geneva through by Undersecretary Thomas DiNanno just as the classical arms control framework is collapsing after the New START expiration. According to Washington, Beijing would have resorted to decoupling techniques to dampen seismic signals and hide underground detonations, an accusation of enormous political significance because it breaks the previous ambiguity and indicates for the first time a specific date, the June 22, 2020in the midst of debate over whether the United States should recover the option of testing nuclear weapons again. The diffuse limit. The technical and legal background is key to understanding the controversy, since both China and the United States have signed, but not ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treatyallowing subcritical testing no self-sustaining nuclear reaction but prohibits any explosion with measurable output. Washington maintains that Beijing would have crossed that line with evidence very low powerdifficult to detect, while the body in charge of verification, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization, ensures that its network did not detect no event compatible with a nuclear explosion that day, thus underlining the fragility of a control system that never came into full force. Lop Nur, satellites and silent expansion. It we have counted other times. American suspicions are also supported by satellite images and intelligence analysis that point to intense activity in the historic Lop Nur polygonwith new excavations, tunnels and drilling that could be used for both subcritical tests and higher performance detonations. This movement fits with the rapid expansion of the Chinese arsenal, which would already exceed the 600 nuclear warheads and could reach a thousand before 2030reinforcing the perception in Washington that the real strategic challenge is no longer Moscow but a Beijing with the capacity and will to challenge US military primacy. A new nuclear race scenario. The Washington complaint comes accompanied by a clear political message: without binding limits, transparency or verification mechanisms that include China, the system inherited from the Cold War ceases to serve, and the United States reserves the right to adopt “parallel steps”including the resumption of testing, if it considers that other actors are breaking the rules. Beijing strongly rejects accusations, claims its moratorium and its doctrine of no first use, but the simple verbal clash shows a change of phase, one with the risk that the end of New START and mutual distrust open the door to a new nuclear race in which small, almost invisible explosions can have enormous strategic consequences. Image | CCTV In Xataka | Nuclear fusion is humanity’s great utopia in the short term: China has already set a date for it In Xataka | China is building something that looks like an oil well. It is actually a nuclear bunker with a command center

that of a world without nuclear weapons control

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During the sixties, at the height of the cold warthe United States and the Soviet Union accumulated nuclear weapons without clear limits, trapped in a logic of absolute distrust marked by crises such as that of the missiles in Cuba and by the certainty that a miscalculation could trigger a global catastrophe. It was in that atmosphere of fear when they began to assume that continuing to add warheads did not make the world safer, thus laying the foundations for the first major nuclear control agreement. Today we are four days away from ending to that pact. The end of nuclear control. Yes, because on Thursday of this week New START expiresthe last treaty that legally limited the deployed nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia, ending more than fifty years of agreements, inspections and transparency mechanisms that had drastically reduced the number of nuclear warheads since the peak of the Cold War. The agreement, signed in 2010 and extended in 2021, established a cap of 1,550 warheads strategic by country and allowed for data exchanges and on-site inspections designed to avoid dangerous misunderstandings. Its disappearance not only eliminates formal limits, but also the verification system that gave true value to the treaty, in a context marked by the war in Ukraine, unilateral suspension Russian inspections and a climate of mistrust that has not been seen for decades. Indifference and risks. The most striking thing about the end of New START is the little political reaction in Washington, where debate has been minimal even as the world enters an era no nuclear restrictions for the first time since the sixties. The Trump administration has let the treaty die without a clear position, while pressure grows within the security apparatus to increase the number of nuclear weapons rather than reduce them. This emptiness contrasts with the warnings of experts and with the symbolism of the Doomsday Clocknews the last few days because has approached more than ever at midnight, a true reflection of the fear of an uncontrolled arms race that could involve not only Russia and the United States, but also the third party “in contention”: China. Russia, China and a dilemma. If we do a futurology exercise and everything follows the expected course, starting on Thursday and without the treaty, the United States, for example, could return to “load” multiple warheads on missiles that today carry only one, a practice abandoned to comply with New START, while Russia retains the capability to do it quickly because it never stopped deploying missiles with multiple warheads. At this point, many analysts warn that Moscow could react faster than Washington in an escalation scenario, while Beijing continues expanding your arsenal at a pace not seen since the Cold War, although still far from the figures of the two superpowers that started it all. The combination of mistrust, new weapons not covered by previous agreements and emerging systems such as underwater nuclear drones or exotic missiles aggravates the feeling of entering unknown strategic terrain. An opportunity that closes. Despite everything, there is still a small window to avoid the worst scenario, since Russia has hinted that could continue to voluntarily respect the limits and former negotiators defend that accepting a temporary extension with restored inspections would be a pragmatic and cheap gesture to save time. Beyond the technique, the collapse by New START It symbolizes something deeper: the erosion of the idea that nuclear stability is better managed by rules, communication and transparency than by arms accumulation. Whether this moment marks just a blip or the beginning of a new normal will depend on immediate political decisionsalthough the consensus among experts is crystal clear: without some type of control, the world enters a more dangerous, more disturbing, more opaque phase and, of course, with less room for error. Image | Steve Jurvetson In Xataka | The countries with the most nuclear bombs in 2025, gathered in this graph with two protagonists: China and India In Xataka | In 1950 two scientists wondered if a 10 gigaton nuclear bomb was possible. Your results are hidden under lock and key

that the US has its “nuclear” information

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Since the Mao timesperiodic purges have been a common tool of power in China to reassert Party control over the military and eliminate real or potential threats. In fact, every generation of leaders has turned to them in moments of internal tensionalmost always wrapped in accusations of corruption or disloyalty, as a reminder that in Beijing political stability has always outweighed military continuity. Unknown territory. If these military purges have been part of the DNA of the Chinese system, the Zhang Youxia’s falluntil now the most powerful general in the country and historical ally of Xi Jinping, marks an unprecedented turning point. It is not only the breadth of the cleaning (the deepest in decades) nor the fact that it has left practically dismantled the leadership of the army, but the strategic context in which it occurs, with China facing the United States in a systemic rivalry and with Taiwan as a backdrop permanent. The radically new element. But what makes this purge something different from all the previous ones is the accusation, leaked in internal briefings, that Zhang had given the United States critical information about the chinese nuclear program. If even partially confirmed, the scandal would not be a simple case of corruption or political disloyalty, but a direct breach in the core of strategic deterrence from Beijing, something unprecedented in the modern history of the PLA and potentially devastating for the balance of power between the two superpowers. Decapitation of commanders. I remembered the BBC that the simultaneous purge of Zhang and Liu Zhenli has reduced the Central Military Commission to an almost empty structure, with Xi and a single active general, with a political rather than an operational profile. That emptying breaks the model collegiate body designed to plan and direct war, creates a leadership vacuum recognized even by Chinese and foreign analystsand leaves millions of soldiers under a weakened chain of command at a time of maximum external pressure. Corruption and power. Officially, most of the media agree a simple summary: explained by corruption and violation of party discipline, but how do we count a few months ago, recent history suggests that the anti-corruption campaign also functions as a mechanism to eliminate rivalsdismantle personal networks and guarantee absolute loyalty to the leader. The result is a almost total control of Xi on the army, comparable only to that of Mao, but at the cost of generating a climate of suspicion that can translate into paralysis, extreme caution and less professional military decisions. Taiwan in the background. In the short term, the elimination of experienced commanders (including some of the few with actual combat experience) seems reduce capacity of the Chinese military to carry out complex operations such as an invasion of Taiwan. However, the experience of previous purges suggests that the replacements tend to be younger, more ideologized and dependent on Xi, which could lead, perhaps in a few years, to a less professional force but more aggressive and less able to question risky orders. The final message. There is no doubt, by sacrificing even a personal ally and “red prince”, Xi sends an unmistakable sign at the forefront: no position, relationship or history protects against suspicion of corruption, disloyalty or, of course, leaking of strategic secrets. If you want, also project a disturbing image abroad: if Washington has had access to chinese nuclear information (that remains to be seen), the rivalry between both powers would enter a much more dangerous and unpredictable. That is why this purge is not just another episode of internal control, but an event that introduces the Chinese armed forces (and the global geopolitical pulse) in a truly unprecedented setting. Image | President of Russia, US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE In Xataka | China’s military is becoming one of the largest in the world. The only problem is the purges In Xataka | 200 drones in the hands of a single soldier: China is advancing very quickly in a type of war that seemed like science fiction

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