Iran

If the war with Iran lasts more than five days he will not win it

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In major conflicts, strategists used to say that wars are not won only on the front, but in the factories. During World War II, for example, Washington produced more planes in a month than some countries in an entire year, and that industrial difference ended up tipping the balance. Today, that same logic re-emerges in a different and much more accelerated form, one where the speed of production can be as decisive as precision on the battlefield. A war that is measured in warehouses. The war between Iran, Israel and the United States It has stopped revolving around the conquest of positions or classic air superiority and has transformed into something much colder and more arithmetic: a race to see who runs out of ammunition first. An analysis that, in fact, was already circulating before Washington’s initial attacks and that after the first day it became clear. Tehran would not try to compete in air dominance or sustained strategic bombing, but in something simpler and potentially devastating: launching enough missiles and drones to force its enemies to spend more than they can replenish. The question, therefore, is no longer who hits the hardest, but who can sustain the rhythm the longest. The prior notice. As we said, even before this new escalation, senior US officials they had warned that previous conflicts in the region had dangerously eroded interceptor reserves. Systems like THAAD, Patriot either Standard Missile had already been used intensively in previous episodesand the data pointed to significant percentages of the annual stock consumed in a few days of combat. Behind this idea there is a reality: manufacturing these interceptors is neither fast nor cheap, and the industry has been working for years. showing difficulties to increase the rate of production. The problem was not hypothetical: the depth of magazines (the so-called magazine Depth) was already a cause for concern before this open phase of the conflict began. The economic equation: millions against missiles. In other words, Iran has turned cost into your main weapon strategic. In the first few moments alone, it launched hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and more than half a thousand drones against targets in Israel and the Gulf. Although the interception rate in places like the United Arab Emirates has been extraordinary, around 92%the bill is brutal. While Tehran invests hundreds of millions in its salvos, defenders they spend billions in interceptors that cost between four and five million dollars per unit, often firing two or more for each incoming threat. In the case of drones, the contrast is even sharper: platforms that cost tens of thousands force the use of expensive interceptors. in hundreds of thousands or more. For every dollar Iran spends, its adversaries may be shelling out between five and ten, and in some segments the ratio skyrockets. up to twenty to one. Submunitions and saturation. Far from reducing the pace, Iran has begun to use some of its most advanced missiles, capable of releasing submunitions during reentry and expanding the impact area, further complicating interception. Videos broadcast In networks they show launchers firing nine or eleven interceptors against a single missile, sometimes without success. The daily figures are eloquent: between 200 and 220 Iranian missiles launched per day against at 700 or even 1,000 interceptors fired by the coalition. Despite massive bombing raids on Iranian bases, mobile launchers and air defenses, launch capacity remains high, with hundreds of missiles and drones still available. The war is becoming a duel of logistical resistance rather than a contest of surgical precision. Four or five days: the critical window. At this point, various analysts agree that, at the current rate, interceptor reserves could be depleted in a matter of minutes. four or five days. This estimate does not arise from speculation, but from a simple intersection between Iranian launch cadence and coalition defensive consumption. Each interceptor fired is one that cannot be replaced immediately; Its manufacture can take months or years. If the conflict extends beyond From that window, the balance could quickly tip, not because Iran manages to destroy all strategic objectives, but because the shield that protects them begins to empty. The American problem. Hence, the disturbing idea for the United States is that if the war with Iran lasts more than those five days, its chances of winning would begin to descend. Not necessarily in immediate territorial or political terms, but rather in the more tangible realm of available ammunition. Every Patriot, THAAD, or naval interceptor fired in the Gulf is a resource that would also be crucial in a hypothetical conflict with China or North Korea. If the campaign becomes a protracted exchange, technological superiority may be neutralized by simple cost arithmetic and production time. Iran appears to have chosen a economic war in the form of missilesand contrary to what it may seem, that choice gives it a structural advantage: it can afford to waste cheaper projectiles for longer than its adversaries can afford to fire theirs. Numbers war. The question that summarizes this phase of the conflict is brutally simple: What will run out first, the Iranian launchers or the coalition interceptors? So far, neither intensive bombing nor the elimination of key targets have reduced decisively Tehran’s launch capacity. Meanwhile, defensive warehouses are being emptied at an accelerated rate. From that prism, the war is no longer decided only in the sky over Tehran or Tel Aviv, but on assembly lines and in the industrial capacity to replace what was fired. Image | Glenn Fawcett, Gieling, Rob In Xataka | The US used one of the oldest practices of war to bomb Iran: reverse engineering with an unprecedented weapon In Xataka | To sink a US aircraft carrier required a weapon that Iran did not have. The arrival of China has just changed everything

Iran is going to need much more from China and Russia. The US has landed its fighter planes loaded with a weapon that changes everything: angry kittens

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For most of the 20th century, air superiority has been decided by who flew higher, faster, or with more missiles. Today, the decisive factor does not have to be seen or heard, and sometimes even fits in a container under the fuselage. In modern conflicts, confuse the enemy for a few seconds it can be worth more than destroying it, and those seconds are usually start much earlier for the first plane to appear on the radar. Therefore, Iran may need much more than “aid” and agreements with China either Russia. A deployment that anticipates. While Washington and Tehran keep the diplomatic channel open, we have been counting that the Pentagon has been strengthening its presence in the Middle East for weeks with a movement of forces that includes fighters, bombers, submarines, aircraft carriers and land systems. The transfer of F-16CJ fighters specialized in air defense suppression is not a symbolic gesture. It is an operational signal that, if the negotiation ends up failing, the United States wants have the key ready to open the Iranian sky from the first minute. Wild Weasel: Enter first, shoot later. The F-16CJ are designed to an uncomfortable mission and certainly dangerous– Locate enemy radars, force them to turn on, and neutralize them before they can guide missiles against the attacking force. These aircraft are equipped with the system AN/ASQ-213 and anti-radiation missiles AGM-88 HARMand can physically destroy detection and command nodes. That said, its true advantage isn’t always in explosion. It is in the ability to disorganize the entire anti-aircraft architecture before it understands what is happening through a secret weapon. The “angry kittens”. Yes, because under the fuselage of these fighters travels the Angry Kitten podan advanced electronic warfare system that began as a tool to simulate threats in exercises and ended up evolving into a real operational capability. Let it be known, at least since 2017 It has been tested on multiple platforms and has become a test bed for cognitive electronic warfare, approaching the ideal of systems capable of quickly adapting to changing threat environments. Turning radar into a mirage. Thanks to technology from radio frequency digital memorythe Angry Kitten can detect, capture and manipulate enemy radar emissions to return altered signals. In other words, they don’t just block. What it does is create false targetsdistorts trajectories and sows doubts on the operator’s screen, thus reducing thereliability of information that supports the launch of interceptor missiles. Additionally, it can update jamming techniques very quickly and even adjust them during the mission, while the pilot concentrates on flying and fighting. They will face the invisible challenge. Tehran has reinforced its anti-aircraft batteries and seeks external support, trusting in missiles of chinese origin and in strategic alliances with Russia as a deterrent. However, that network relies on radars, data links and command centers that can be confused before a single interceptor leaves the launcher. Hence, Iran is going to need much more than Beijing’s missiles and the Moscow submarines. Because Washington has just landed in the East with fighter planes loaded with those angry kittens capable of disorganizing the defense from within and converting the apparent solidity of the shield into an electronic illusion. The war before the first impact. In short, everything indicates that, if a prolonged air campaignthe breakdown of the Iranian defensive overlap will not fall solely on stealth platforms. Most likely it will require methodical work of these F-16CJ opening corridors, degrading sensors and keeping pressure on the anti-aircraft network. In that scenario, the first phase would not be so much a rain of bombs. It would be more of an invisible battle for control of the spectrum, one where whoever dominates the signal dominates the sky. Image | John QuineUSAF In Xataka | As the US approached, the satellites have captured a shadow: Iran has resurrected a Russian Frankenstein for what is to come In Xataka | To sink a US aircraft carrier required a weapon that Iran did not have. The arrival of China has just changed everything

Iran has resurrected a Russian Frankenstein for what is to come

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For decades, Russian shipyards have turned their diesel-electric submarines into one of the star products of their military industry: dozens of units of Project 877 and 636 (known in the West as the Kilo class) were exported to countries such as India, China, Algeria, Vietnam or Iran, offering a combination of relatively contained cost, affordable maintenance and coastal warfare capabilities that allowed navies without a great submarine tradition to take a strategic leap without developing their own technology. Iran has resurrected and modernized one of them. The shadow under the Strait. While Washington was approaching their carrier groups to the Gulf and first the USS Abraham Lincoln, and then the USS Gerald R. Ford, entered sensitive waters, the satellites captured a disturbing image at Iranian Base 1: one of the old Kilo class submarinesacquired from Russia in the nineties for around $600 million each, returned to its berth after months in dry dock. Amid American pressure for a new nuclear deal and Iranian warnings of all-out war, Tehran appeared to have resurrected a Frankenstein Russian for submarine warfare, returning to the scene a platform that for years dragged maintenance problems and availability, but it remains its most powerful asset underwater. The myth of the Russian “black hole”. The Kilo, designed in the Cold War as Project 877 and evolved into later variants, gained the nickname “black hole” for their low acoustic signal when sailing on batteries, a reputation that some experts consider exaggeratedagainst modern Western submarines with air-independent propulsion. However, their combination of relative stealth, heavy torpedoes, ability to mine shipping lanes, and anechoic coatings made them one of the star products Soviet and Russian naval export, sold to China, India or Iran, countries that were looking for an effective submarine force without developing their own industry. Today many of these navies are removing them due to obsolescence, but in the Persian Gulf they continue to be pieces with strategic value. A weapon designed to deny. The normal thing is that Iran does not aspire to defeat the United States Navy in the open field, but rather to defeat make more expensive and complicate its presence in the Strait of Hormuz through an area denial strategy supported by a set of mines, coastal missiles, fast boats and submarines. In this scenario, a Kilo operating on batteries can become a serious threat. for escort or logistics vessels that transit maritime corridors barely three kilometers wide, even if a supercarrier has layered defenses and anti-submarine coverage with MH-60R helicopters and airplanes P-8A. The key in this case is not so much to sink an aircraft carrier, but to sow enough uncertainty to raise the political and military cost of any attack. The dwarf fleet that completes the picture. There is no doubt, the modernization of the Kilo cannot be understood without the other half of the Iranian device: the more than twenty Ghadir class mini submarinesat least eleven recently visible on the same base, designed for shallow waters and intense traffic. With just 117-125 tons submerged and diesel-electric propulsion, these units are optimized for ambushes in coastal environments where civil noise, salinity and currents degrade sonar performance, making them difficult to detect, although limited in autonomy and firepower. Faced with American technological superiority, Iran accumulates quantity, dispersion and knowledge of the terrain. Geography, wear and calculation. Experts say as Jack Bubby that another equation must be taken into account. The conditions of the Gulf, a scenario with shallow depth, high salinity and complex currents, have historically punished the Iranian Kilos and reduced availabilityforcing long periods of maintenance and reconditioning. But precisely this restricted environment favors small and discreet platforms, and turns any concentration of naval forces into a calculated risk exercise. Thus, while the United States reinforces its presence to sustain diplomatic and military pressure, Tehran rebuilds its submarine force combining updated Soviet relics and modern coastal flotillas, betting that, in a conflict, the shadow underwater weighs as much as the steel visible on the surface. Image | rhk111X, Vitaliy Ankov In Xataka | From space something very dangerous can be seen in Iran: the US cannot do what it did in Caracas if it does not want a massacre In Xataka | If the US attacks Iran with drones, it will find a surprise: Russia has shielded its sky with an explosive weapon, Verba

If the US attacks Iran like Venezuela, it will be a drain in both directions.

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In recent weeks, the United States has concentrated hundreds of aircraft and support assets around the Middle East, while commercial satellites captured unusual movements around the Iranian capital. That combination of deployments and repositioning It has raised tension and forced us to rethink calculations about what a direct collision would really entail. The temptation to copy Caracas. I remembered this morning the new york times that when Donald Trump compared an eventual offensive against Iran with the lightning operation which allowed Nicolás Maduro to be captured in Caracas, raised the idea of ​​rapid, surgical and decisive action. The problem is that the parallelism is quite misleading from its strategic basis. Venezuela offered a aging airspace and weakly defended, in addition to an accessible political objective, while Tehran is supported by a theocratic structure consolidated for almost half a century, a Revolutionary Guard of some 150,000 troops and a regional network of militias that can open multiple fronts. There is no “clean” or low-cost option, and any attempt to decapitate the regime would involve a sustained campaign with real risk of American casualties and regional escalation. And not only that. Satellite images. The latest images commercial flights from space through Airbus and Planet Labs have shown something that changes the calculus: the relocation of S-300 systems long-range around Tehran and Isfahan, accompanied by the Cobra-V8 electronic warfare in key positions south of the capital. This combination combines interceptors capable of hitting targets hundreds of kilometers away with powerful jamming capabilities in critical bands for radars, satellite links and designation pods, which points directly to the US “kill chain” before the missiles even enter their range. The signal is clear: Iran not only wants or can fire, it also wants blinddegrade and force attackers to operate closer and with greater exposure. A shield that complicates air attack. He S-300PMU-2with high-speed missiles and three-dimensional radars optimized for detect targets at low altitudesuch as drones and cruise missiles, constitutes the hard shell of the Iranian system, while the Cobra-V8 system seeks to erode and wear down the sensory advantage of American platforms like AWACS or even electronic suppression aircraft. Although there are doubts about the full integration of these systems and the absence of advanced fighters that act as overhead sensors, their deployment near the capital suggests an architecture designed to survive the first wave of attacks and force Washington to devote additional resources to suppression and electronic warfare. In other words, it is no longer just about dropping bombs, but about winning a previous battle in the electromagnetic spectrum. Missiles and multiple fronts. Added to this defensive armor is one of the missile arsenals wider Middle Eastwith medium-range systems capable of hitting US bases and allied cities more than 2,000 kilometersin addition to drones, anti-ship weapons and recent sea-based air defense tests in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, it is entirely plausible that Iran could scale quickly through its so-called “axis of resistance”, activating Hezbollah, the Houthis or Iraqi militias to disperse the cost and expand the theater of the conflict. All this, of course, while threatening a road along which nearly a fifth of of world oil and gas. The logic, therefore, is dissuasive: any blow against Tehran would have an immediate echo in Israel, in the Gulf and in the planet’s energy trade. An indentation in both directions. The result of this equation is that the comparison with Caracas is diluted facing a scenario where the Iranian capital has become a strongly defended and electromagnetically contested space. The satellite images do not show a disarmed country, but one that has strengthened its core strategic in anticipation of a modern aerial suppression campaign. In short, if the United States plans to attack as he did it in Venezuelayou will not face an operational vacuum, but rather an environment saturated with missilesinterference and possible regional retaliation, a full-blown clash that threatens to become a combat with casualties in both directions from day one. Image | Airbus, Planet Labs In Xataka | If the US attacks Iran with drones, it will find a surprise: Russia has shielded its sky with an explosive weapon, Verba In Xataka | It is so small that it can barely be seen from space, but this secret island is the main problem for the US to attack Iran

If the US attacks Iran with drones, it will be in for a surprise. Russia shielded its sky with an explosive weapon: Verba

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It we count last week. In the Middle East, crises rarely erupt overnight. First pieces move away from the spotlight, discreet commitments are signed and deployments multiply that seem routine. Only later, when everything falls into place, do you understand that the board had been preparing for something bigger for weeks. Now we know that Washington has not been the only one that has prepared. Agreement sealed in the shadows. counted this morning in an exclusive the financial times that Iran and Russia signed a secret contract of almost 500 million euros for delivery of 500 lVerba portable spears and 2,500 9M336 missiles. It would be Tehran’s most significant move to rebuild air defenses devastated after the 12 day war against Israel. The Iranian request came just days after its integrated network was seriously degraded by Israeli and American attacks, which allowed enemy aircraft to operate with superiority over large areas of the country. The agreement provides deliveries until 2029although the media explained that there are indications of early shipments, and it is complemented with night vision devices and other equipment that points to a phased but urgent reconstruction. What are Verba and why do they matter. The Verba system is a portable guided missile infrared designed to shoot down drones, cruise missiles and low-level aircraft such as helicopters, operated by small mobile teams that can deploy dispersed defenses without depending on fixed radars vulnerable to bombing. These are not heavy strategic systems like lthe S-300 or S-400but rather a flexible tactical layer that complicates helicopter operations and low-level flights. Its adoption is rapid, requires less integration and allows Iran to reinforce critical points at a relatively acceptable cost for Moscow, which can supply them without weakening substantially its own defense against Ukraine. Verba missile carrier A military alliance despite sanctions. Apparently the contract was negotiated between Rosoboronexport and the Iranian Ministry of Defense, with intermediaries already sanctioned by Washington, in a context of growing cooperation that includes Iranian drones employed by Russia in Ukraine and a bilateral treaty signed in 2025. Moscow thus demonstrates that it has no intention of abiding by Western sanctions or the arms embargo reactivated by European powers, while Tehran tries rebuild the relationship following the perception that Russia did not come to their aid during the latest conflict with Israel. The flow of cargo flights and the reception of attack helicopters Mi-28 reinforce the image of a active and sustained military association. The largest deployment since 2003. It we count last week. The agreement emerges in parallel to a massive accumulation of American air and naval power in the Middle East, with dozens of F-35, F-15 and A-10 fighters deployed at bases such as Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan and Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, in addition to two aircraft carrier groups led by the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford. In total, about 40,000 troops and a fleet comparable to the one before the 2003 invasion of Iraq support Donald Trump’s threats to impose a nuclear ultimatum on Tehran. Iran, for its part, warns that it would respond by attacking US bases in the region if hit. A reinforcement that changes the risk calculation. The new systems They will not turn Iran into a conventional rival comparable to the United States or Israel, of course, nor will they prevent sustained air campaigns if these are executed with technological superiority. However, they can raise cost and risk of specific operations, especially helicopter raids or low-altitude attacks, and prolong a possible conflict by making initial phases of aerial suppression difficult. In an environment where each shootdown would have a disproportionate political and strategic impact, the mere presence of hundreds of mobile launchers introduces a tactical deterrence variable. A preparation race. What does seem quite clear is that the combination Iranian rearmament and American deployment draws a scenario of maximum tension in which diplomacy and force advance in parallel. Tehran seeks to buy time, rebuild defensive layers and negotiate from a less vulnerable position. Washington tries to pressure with a demonstration of power without recent precedents in the region. What happens in the coming weeks will not only determine whether there is an attack or an agreement, but also whether the Russian-Iranian alliance is consolidated as a military axis capable of openly challenging the sanctions regime and reconfiguring the strategic balance of the Middle East. Image | ТАСС In Xataka | It is so small that it can barely be seen from space, but this secret island is the main problem for the US to attack Iran In Xataka | If the most advanced US nuclear aircraft carrier maintains its speed it will reach its destination on Sunday: a bad omen for Iran

The US has had a grain for “Iran”. The United Kingdom does not allow its bombers to enter a secret island that is key to the attack

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Since the Cold War, many of the great powers have understood that modern wars do not begin when the first plane takes off, but when secures access to the bases from which it will take off. Sometimes the deciding factor is not so much firepower, but the key that opens or closes a key clue at the exact location on the map. That is happening right now on a lost atoll. A problem with name and surname. The United States has had a major problem for “the Iran thing” and it is not in Tehran, but in the Indian Ocean. United Kingdom refuses to authorize the use of Diego García Island and the RAF Fairford base for a possible air campaign against the Islamic Republic, alleging that it could violate international law if it is a preventive attack. Without that permission, Washington loses two key platforms to project its long-range air power, just when the president has given an ultimatum to Iran and has hinted that in a matter of days he could decide between an agreement or a military operation. The secret island that sustains long wars. It we count some time ago. Located halfway between the east coast of Africa and the west coast of Indonesia, The island was part of the Chagos Archipelago. During the 18th century, it was colonized by the French as an agricultural settlement. So they took the Chagossians, descendants of slaves from Africa and India, to the islands to work on growing coconut trees for the production of copra (dried coconut meat). Over time, the locals developed their own culture and dialect, known as Chagossian Creole. By 1814, after Napoleon’s defeat, The island came under British control as part of the Treaty of Parisintegrating into the colony of Mauritius. Throughout the 19th century, life on the island continued with a small population dedicated to agriculture and fishing, but things were about to change with the beginning of the new century. The agreement. During the Cold War, The United States and the United Kingdom sealed an agreement. Both nations saw the island as a strategic location for a secret military base in the Indian Ocean. In 1965, the British separated the Chagos Islands from Mauritius, thus forming the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), which also includes the other 57 islands of the Chagos Archipelago. By 1966, he signed a secret agreement with the United States, allowing the construction of the “secret” military base. Key node. Since then, Diego García is anything but any base, because he is one of the more strategic enclaves of the Pentagon in the Indian Ocean. Its central runway, its port capable of hosting nuclear submarines and its logistics infrastructure allow strategic bombers to be deployed, maintained and rearmed in sustained cycles. Without going too far, last year it already served as a pressure platform when several B-2s arrived in a clear message to Iran, and precisely that type of deployment is what is now conspicuous by its absence. That there are no visible bomber movements towards the island reinforces the idea that the british veto is conditioning military planning. Without bases there are no prolonged campaigns. The geographical difference is abysmal and explains the tension. From Diego García to Iran there are around 2,300 kilometers, from the United States more than 6,000. That distance sets the pace of departuresthe wear and tear of the crews and the intensity of the offensive. For a one-night operation you can fly round trip from Missouri, as was the case in previous attacks, but for a campaign a week or more against nuclear installations, military commands and missile launchers, advanced bases are needed that allow constant sorties to be generated. In other words, without access to the island and Fairford, the role of the B-2, B-1 or B-52 is greatly reduced and the plan loses volume. A clash between allies. The disagreement is not only technical, it is deeply political. London maintains that supporting an attack could implicate it legally if it knows the circumstances of an action considered unlawful, and the prime minister has marked distances with the White House. Washington, for its part, has responded hardening the tone and linking the refusal to the dispute over the future of Diego García within the Chagos Archipelago, whose status and possible transfer to Mauritius have opened a diplomatic rift. Thus, what began as a legal debate has led to a strategic struggle between historical allies. The war that is amplified without the key piece. Meanwhile, the United States continues to accumulate fighters, electronic warfare aircraft and resuppliers in the region, preparing the board as if the military option was still alive and imminent. It turns out that the heart of a prolonged air campaign is not the F-22s in transit, but those strategic bombers operating from a secure and nearby base. Yes UK maintains the vetoWashington will have more distant and less efficient alternatives, which would force the scope and intensity of the blow to be redesigned. In short, in full escalation with Iranthe piece that could do it all more simple For Washington it is precisely the one that blocks the movement today. Image | Department of DefenseRoyal Air Force, US Air Force In Xataka | One of the most remote islands was taken 60 years ago by the United Kingdom and the United States. Since then, what happens there has been a secret. In Xataka | If the most advanced US nuclear aircraft carrier maintains its speed, it will reach its destination on Sunday. Not good news for a nation

We don’t know if the US is going to attack Iran. We do know that it is carrying out the largest military deployment in the Middle East since Iraq

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In major international crises there is a almost imperceptible moment in which the tension stops being rhetorical and begins to be measured in real movements. History shows that when the pieces begin to be placed with that precision, the outcome It rarely depends on words alone. Therefore, when they pass 20 tanker aircraft across Europe in a single day and the maps tell us that the largest aircraft carrier in the United States is four days to reach its destination, the outcome can only be an ockham razor. A display that is already historic. Of course, we don’t know for sure whether the United States is going to attack Iran. What we do know is that it is running the largest air deployment in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, a concentration of power which cannot be explained as simple diplomatic pressure. There are currently dozens of stealth fighters, command and control aircraft, anti-missile systems and two aircraft carrier groups taking up positions while the White House insists that diplomacy still on the table. The question is not whether Washington has the capacity to strike, but when and to what extent it would decide to do so. And if the satellite maps they don’t lieon Sunday morning everything would be ready. Stealth fighters in motion. The radars have indicated For several days now, the F-22, F-35 and F-16 have been crossing the Atlantic in waves, reinforcing bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia that are becoming launching pads for a sustained campaign. Them F-15E are addedelectronic warfare aircraft and air communications nodes that allow complex operations to be coordinated. It is not the pattern a specific attack like the one perpetrated in Iran with the Operation Midnight Hammerbut rather the architecture of a “heavy” and prolonged air war, one capable to last weeksbut more, with targets ranging from nuclear facilities to missile depots and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps centers. AWACS to the limit. There are six Boeing E-3 Sentry, That is, almost 40% of an aging fleet with low availability, warning and control systems that have been sent to Europe and the Middle East. We talk about the floating brain that manage air combatcoordinates interceptions and detects drones and cruise missiles at low altitude. Its massive deployment indicates that planners are setting up an environment “high intensity battle”but at the same time it reveals a structural vulnerability of Washington: the United States depends on a small and old fleet to direct one of the most complex campaigns on the planet. U.S. Ford Patriots, THAAD and defending against retaliation. There is no doubt, in such a movementreinforcement is not just offensive. Patriot Systems and THAAD They have come forward to protect the surrounding 30,000-40,000 soldiers Americans scattered in the region and allies like Israel. This gives us an idea of ​​what to expect. Washington assumes that any attack would trigger a response with ballistic missiles, kamikaze drones and possibly attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz. The deployment seeks to ensure that, if retaliation comes, it can absorb the blow without paralyzing the operation. Two aircraft carriers and a “navy” visible in space. He USS Abraham Lincoln already operates in the area with Aegis destroyers and nuclear submarines, while the USS Gerald R. Ford keep it up from the Atlantic after crossing near Gibraltar. As we said, if it maintains its current speed, it will be off the coast of Israel on sunday morning and will be able to reinforce air defense in the event of an immediate Iranian retaliation. Two combat groups with F/A-18, F-35C and electronic warfare aircraft provide mobile power, missile defense and sustained strike capability. That is to say, it is not a symbolic presence, it is an unequivocal sign of preparation for real combat. Trajectory of the American aircraft carrier US Ford Tehran, Moscow and Beijing for internships. While Washington concentrates forces, Iran is currently carrying out naval exercises with Russia and China in the Strait of Hormuz. The presence of Russian and Chinese ships does not alter the military balance against the United States Navy, but it adds a layer if you want. politics and risk which requires planning with greater caution. In this regard, Iran has also closed parts of the strait for maneuvers with anti-ship missiles and drones, stressing that any war would not be a limited exchange, but an escalation with global impact on the oil and sea routes. An outrage for ambiguous objectives. The accumulation of forces It allows, a priori, multiple scenarios: from a limited attack against nuclear facilities to a campaign aimed at degrading missile capacity or even weakening the regime. Be that as it may, technological and aerial superiority does not resolve the political mystery of what would happen next. Without ground forces or a broad coalition, a protracted war would depend almost exclusively on air and naval power. In that regard, The New York Times said that the White House has received plans designed to maximize the damage, but has not yet made a final decision. Pressure as a strategic weapon. With such a scenario there are not many options. Either the deployment is a prelude to an attack, or we are dealing with a tool unprecedented pressure aimed at forcing concessions at the negotiating table. Some analysts believe that the show of force they have in front of them right now could convince to Tehran that Washington is going all out. Others warn that the same preparation that increases military credibility also reduce the margin to retreat without any political cost. One thing is clear: at this point, the movement of parts It is already historical and hyperbolic, and the only thing left is to know if it will remain a threat or will become an open war of unpredictable dimensions. Image | TREVOR MCBRIDE, US Army Aerial, RawPixel, BORN In Xataka | Tension in Iran is so high that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And that will have consequences when … Read more

Tension in Iran is so high that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And that will have consequences when you go to refuel.

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The world woke up today with a dangerous contradiction: while in the aseptic halls of Geneva the diplomats of the United States and Iran they shake hands cautiouslyin the waters of the Persian Gulf, the speedboats of the Revolutionary Guard block the passage of oil tankers. It doesn’t take a missile to fall for the global economy to feel the impact; Fear is trading higher and traveling faster than any ship. The Strait of Hormuz, the planet’s energy jugular, has undergone closure “partial and temporary” for the first time since tensions escalated in January. For the consumer, this is not a distant headline: the price of Brent oil has already increased by 13% so far this year. An increase in prices that does not respond to a real lack of supply, but rather to the geopolitical risk premium. We are paying for what could happen, not for what has happened. As confirmed by Iranian state media cited by EuronewsTehran ordered the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz under the justification of “security precautions.” The Iranian Fars news agency, referenced by Deutsche Welleexplained that this maneuver responds to the military exercises called “Intelligent Control of the Strait of Hormuz.” It is an unprecedented move in this crisis: it is the first time that Iran has physically closed sectors of the waterway since the US administration threatened military action last January. However, it is important to clarify the operational scope so as not to fall into unjustified alarmism. Jakob Larsen, safety director at Bimco (the association representing global shipowners), explained to the CNBC that it is not an indefinite total block. The closure affects the incoming “traffic separation scheme” area and lasts “several hours.” Iranian authorities have asked commercial ships to stay away from the exercise zone, which is causing delays and “minor inconveniences,” but the flow has not stopped completely. A 33 kilometer funnel for 20% of the world’s oil To understand why the market is holding its breath, you have to look at the map. The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) rate this step as the “choke point” (chokepoint) most important in the world for oil transit. The figures are overwhelming: Volume: About 20 million barrels of crude oil, condensates and refined products flow through this artery daily. Global Impact: According to data from consulting firms Vortexa and Kplerthis represents approximately 20% of global consumption of petroleum liquids and nearly 30% of maritime crude oil trade. The problem is geographical. As explained D.W.At its narrowest point, the road is just 33 kilometers wide. But crucially, the safe navigable route for large supertankers is only two miles wide in each direction. It’s a perfect funnel where any interruption, no matter how small, creates an immediate domino effect. He timing of this military operation is not a coincidence; It’s a message. As analyzed Euronewsthe partial closure occurred exactly while the second round of nuclear talks between Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, and Steve Witkoff, US special envoy, was being held in Geneva. For this reason, Tehran is using the strait as a negotiating lever. The United States has increased its military pressure with the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford in the region, in response to both Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the bloody repression of internal protests shaking the Persian country. Paradoxically, diplomacy seems to advance while the guns are aimed. According to ReutersAraghchi confirmed after the meeting that a “principle of agreement” has been reached on the bases of a future relationship, although he warned that closing the final pact will be a slow process. Iran shows its fist in the sea while offering its hand in Switzerland. The price mirage: why do we pay the “fear premium”? The market reaction has been an emotional rollercoaster in the last 24 hours: Tuesday’s mirage: Initially, when the progress in Geneva became known, the price of oil fell. The barrel of Brent fell 1.8% (to $67.36) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 1%. The markets “bought” the hope of peace. Today’s reality, Wednesday: The trend has reversed. Prices are recovering and rising again. As explained in OilPricethe traders have reevaluated the situation: the final agreement seems distant and the physical closure of the strait, although partial, is a tangible reality today. As Sugandha Sachdeva points out, analyst cited by Reutersthe market is experiencing a “technical rally” because doubt dominates the scene. Although 82% of the crude oil that passes through Hormuz goes to Asia (China, India, Japan), oil is a global market. If there is a lack of supply in Asia, those countries will bid for the crude oil available in other regions, making the barrel more expensive for everyone. This has an immediate effect on Europe due to the “financialization” of energy. Gas and oil they have stopped being simple commodities to become financial assets that operate with high-speed algorithms. The volatility is such that “an early morning headline about Iran can alter the price of heating in Berlin before dawn.” The European Achilles heel The situation is especially delicate for the Old Continent. Europe is experiencing a “painful déjà vu“: fleeing from Russian dependence, has fallen into dependence on gas that arrives by ship (LNG). European gas reserves are at worrying lows (44% at the end of January) and vulnerability is maximum. This is where Hormuz plays a critical role beyond oil. As we have detailed in Xatakathe European Union looks to Qatar as a vital alternative for its gas supply, but “military tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz put that route at risk.” If the strait is closed, not only oil to Asia is blocked, but also the Qatari liquefied natural gas that Europe desperately needs to refill its warehouses for next winter. The short-term horizon is bleak. According to an estimate by Eurasia Group collected by OilPricethere is a 65% chance that the United States will launch a military strike against Iran in April if the current talks … Read more

China has been launching the same message to the world about Taiwan. The date was 2027 … until the US bombarded Iran

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Now that there is a certain tense calm in the Middle East, there are many analysts who have turned the magnopolitical framework. In June we already commented that, in a turn of the most perverse events, the United States attack Iran intended to contain a nuclear proliferation could be the catalyst of another even more dangerous: North Korea. There was a second stage to draw: that of China and Taiwan. Start over. The analysts told of the New York Times That the American attack against Iranian nuclear facilities has added a new layer of complexity to the already tense geopolitical equation between the United States, China and Taiwan. What began as a diplomatic strategy became a sudden offensive that now serves as Element of study For Chinese leaders, who seek to anticipate how Trump would respond to an eventual crisis in the Taiwan Strait. His Erratic behavior And his willingness to resort to the use of force, even having previously rejected it, generate confusion in Beijing. China, they agree, observe this turn as a sign that Trump, far from representing a predictable position, could apply a logic of force equally in Asia if it perceives that their interests are at stake. Iran’s mirror. In the same way What North Koreahe Attack on Iran has been able to force Chinese strategists to Check your models of contingency with respect to Taiwan. Despite the obvious differences between the two scenarios, the essential lesson It is shared: Trump is willing to unleash military operations if he considers it appropriate, even against adversaries with limited response capacity such as Iran. Beijing, on the other hand, has a considerably superior military power and is known closer to the theater of operations than any American force. Even so, the possibility of a sudden escalation forces the Chinese to prepare For a Scenario fanfrom a diplomatic crisis to a direct confrontation that escapes their hands. Uncertainty about Trump’s red line is precisely what worries them. Taiwan and ambiguity. A constant in American politics towards Taiwan has been the calculated ambiguity: dissuad China from that invasion that sounds by 2027 (coinciding with The EPL centenary), without explicitly guaranteeing a military intervention. Trump has brought that ambiguity to an extreme level. At times ha praised Xi Jinping And he has given relaxes of distensionwhile in others he has hardened his rhetoric and has intensified The supply of weapons to Taipéi. For Beijing, this duality is disconcerting but also dangerous, because it cannot be certain to its behavior. In this context, Chinese analysts They have intensified His scrutiny, maintaining discrete meetings with American interlocutors in search of clues about the true limits of the former president. The impression they transmit is of nervous caution: they fear that the Trump’s unpredictability can trigger an unwanted crisis. Cross pressures. The tension not only emanates from Beijing. Remembered in another report the Time Magazine that within the United States and Taiwan there is fear that Trump himself, in his eagerness, ends giving something to China In a future summit with XI, perhaps in the form of an ambiguous statement or a significant omission about the defense of the island. Washington, as we said, maintains armament supply (And more) and exhortes Taipéi to increase his military spending, but it is the president who finally decides. That centralization of power and its erratic character They worry both in the Pentagon and in the Taiwanese presidential palace. We have Cash: The recent ones Chinese maneuversincluding deployment of aircraft carriers Beyond the first island chain, they are seen as stress tests: Silent drills to measure the allied reaction capacity and the degree of real commitment of Washington. Taiwan between lines and symbols. While Beijin accuses President Taiwanesa Lai Ching-Te de Separatismo, the island administration insists that it is the maneuvers and Chinese threats that They tension the rope. In turn, within Taiwan, there are those who interpret Trump’s attack to Iran as An indirect warning To the great powers, a coded message towards Moscow and Beijing: if a line is crossed, the answer could be immediate. But the comparison between Iran and China is dangerous. He Missile Arsenal from Beijing (which includes about 3,500 missiles Conventional, nuclear ballistic submarines and a rapid assembly) would make a lightning offensive like the one launched in the Middle East. China knows it, and that is why Multiply your deploymentsair incursions and Naval exercisesconsolidating a constant pressure on the island, designed to wear it psychologically and strategically. China between two fronts. Plus: while facing these uncertainties in the east, Beijing must deal with a growing perception of threat in the West. The Recent statements From the secretary general of NATO, Mark Rutte, alerting about Chinese military expansion and his possible coordination with Russia in case of crisis in Taiwan, reinforce the western narrative of China As a systemic challenge. Beijing, meanwhile, denounces that NATO seeks to justify its expansion to Asia using China As a pretext. A theater of shadows. In summary, Trump has shown that he can change course Without prior noticeand that feature, far from reassuring, introduces a dangerous volatility element. Meanwhile, China explores if you can find a loop to weaken American support to Taipéi, even Without resorting to force. And in parallel, the military apparatus of the United States and its allies fears that any calculation error, any word out of place at a summit, can trigger a chain reaction. The military action In Iran it is not just a specific act: it is a declaration of ambiguous intentions, one that has put all the actors of the Indo-Pacific board alert. Image | Chairman, Garystock In Xataka | That China performs 3,000 military air maneuvers over a year is not striking. To do it about Taiwan, yes In Xataka | It is the third time in a few months that China presents itself against Taiwan with an army. The island has decided to move on to attack

We have tried to use AI to verify if the images of the war between Iran and Israel were made with AI. It has been a disaster

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False images circulate on social networks is no novelty, but in the era of AI It is increasingly difficult to detect them And they have even made Let’s distrust real photos. That photos taken with AI are viral when an important event is the new normality is; We saw it After the blackout And also with him Conflict between Israel and Iran. It is clear to us that AI is very good to generate false images, but what if we use it precisely for the contrary? Not so much. The photos in question. At the same time as a Half Iranian published The news that Iran had demolished an Israeli F-35, two images began to run like gunpowder on social networks, although We soon knew they were false. One of them, that of the star and surrounded by curious F35, is especially striking. To begin with, the proportions make no sense: the plane seems giant when actually measures 16 meters and people are larger than buildings. And that not to mention that the damage of the plane is minimal to have been shot down. These images were not the only ones generated by AI that circulated in the first days of the conflict. Several videos such as this one of a huge Iranian missile that it seems quite real until we see that the water brand has been left to see that it is made with the, or East of a tel aviv shattered. AI is terrible doing FACT-CHECK. Means dedicated to FACT-CHECKING as Damn already denied These and other images created with AI in the context of the conflict between Iran and Israel. However, there were users who tried to resort to AI tools to check the authenticity of the images and obtained quite confusing answers. Is What happened in X with Grok. An analysis of more than 130,000 posts revealed that Musk’s AI was not able to detect some false images or identify the sources from which they came. The community notes written by the users themselves were much more reliable. We have tried it. To check the AI ​​capacities, we have used the image of the disproportionate F-35 and have asked several AI tools. This is what they have answered: Chatgpt: The Openai tool begins “This image does not seem real” and then proceeds to make an analysis of the proportion of the plane, which correctly identifies as a F35, and states that the damage does not seem coherent. Perplexity: Like Chatgpt, he tells us that proportions, perspective, and airplane damage and other details suggest that the photo has been digitally manipulated. Gemini: It tells us that the image is real, but that it is not an attack in combat, but of a clash with birds that happened in Israel in 2017. When we answer that the sources show us, it happens several links to the news, but in none of them the image appears. After a while sending us confusing information, he ends up recognizing that he was wrong and apologizes for “the serious mistake.” Claude: It is the only one that states with forcefulness that the image is not real and gives us the exact context of what has happened “this is one of the many false images that have circulated as part of misinformation campaigns during the conflict between Israel and Iran.” The reliability, pending subject. In our test, Gemini has completely invented the answer, while Chatgpt and Perplexity succeed, although they do not get wet. Claude is the only one that gives us all the information and hits fully. Although language models have improved a lot in a short time, Many answers continue to be invented Despite having access to the Internet and searches. Undoubtedly, reliability is the pending subject of generative AI and where more improvement margin has. Images | 404 average In Xataka | Chatgpt guide: 22 functions and things you can do to squeeze this artificial intelligence to the maximum

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