Not even the greatest US attack has achieved its goal in Iran. Nobody knows where is the great unknown of 400 kg

After the first hours, and with them the Trump statements That the Iranian nuclear program had been “complete and totally annihilated”, senior US officials have recognized that, in reality, they do not know where the most sensitive Iranian element is, an unknown of 400 kilograms of reserve.

A latent bomb. After the overwhelming offensive American Aeria on the main Nuclear facilities From Iran (Fordow, Natanz and Isfahán), the attention of intelligence agencies does not focus solely on craters, but on an invisible but crucial element: the, a priori, just over 400 kg of enriched uranium at 60%, very close to the military threshold, whose whereabouts remains uncertain.

As we said, despite the Trump’s proclamations On Iranian nuclear capabilities, experts and officials recognize that the true unknown is whether the material was destroyed, transferred (they have had plenty of time since the conflict broke out) or disseminated in clandestine facilities. The difference between a neutralized nuclear and latent program It depends on the destination of that vital stock.

The Shadow of Fordow. He counted In the Financial Times The former American official Richard Nephew, that the destruction of the visible facilities It might not have affected the most sensitive material, stored in dust Inside metal cylinders in deeply excavated tunnels.

Fordowbeing hidden under a mountain, would have offered limited but not zero protection. However, there is a growing suspicion that they will move their uranium Before bombingwhich would represent an early strategic play. An informant of the Iranian regime declared that it would have been “very naive” to leave uranium in the attacked sites, and assured that the material It is still intact. Moreover, figures such as the director of the OIEA, Rafael Grossi, They take for granted After reviewing satellite images and logistic movements records near underground tunnels in Fordow, which Iran could have evacuated uranium days before of attacks.

Silent withdrawal. Explained The New York Times that those evidence suggest that they will go displaced part of the uranium From Isfahán, its main storage center, towards still unknown sites. Although the centrifuging (key pieces of the enrichment process) could not be evacuated due to their size and complexity, the stored fuel would have been mobile enough as to be extracted in discrete vehicles.

Satellite images showed At least 16 trucks Near the accesses to Fordow days before the attack, which reinforces the theory of a preventive evacuation. Natanz’s installation, on the other hand, It was devastated by Israel, which disabled the superficial enrichment center and caused a blackout that probably destroyed the centrifugators. However, Iran had already begun the construction of a deeper underground installation to the south of the city, although it ensures that it still It is not operational.

Between deterrence and clandestine activity. Although Iran insists that his program It has civil endsthe partial destruction of its infrastructure and the selective murder of at least eleven nuclear scientists have fed voices within the regime they suggest Check the doctrine nuclear.

International analysts fear that the coup catalogs a turn towards hidingwith the installation of new advanced centrifugers and the restart of activities in unstalled facilities. To the big question about those 408 kg of 60%uranium, Iran could in a matter of days refine it until reaching the necessary purity For nuclear weapons (90%) if you have the necessary technical team, although the miniaturization and assembly process would still take months or even a year.

Precedents The cases of India, Pakistan and North Korea show that, even under international surveillance, it is possible to build a hidden nuclear capacity. Sima Shine, Mossad’s intelligence formerist, He affirmed in FT Being convinced that Iran has already relocated both their enriched uranium and part of their technical infrastructure, which would allow a quick reload if the political decision is made. In other words: despite the military coup, political will, scientific knowledge and industrial experience remain intact.

Collapse of international control. We have counted before. The inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are They have suspended Due to Israeli attacks, which has left a critical void in the verification of the Iranian program.

Even before the offensive, Iranian cooperation with the agency had drastically decreasedand Tehran had already secretly built a third unstalled enrichment installation. Israel managed to damage Natanz and Isfahán, but acknowledged that he had no capacity to destroy Fordow without the help of the United States, which contributed His antibunker artillery more powerful inside its B-2.

The big doubt. Thus, nobody knows exactly if we are facing an end point or A phase change. The emerging consensus between analysts is that the Iranian nuclear program has not been destroyed, but Your known form. If you survive, It will be transformed: either in a clandestine program aimed at obtaining weapons, or (in case of successful negotiations) in a purely civil version, devoid of the complete fuel cycle.

Advisor Ali Shamkhani summed up with coldness: “Although the facilities are destroyed, the game is not over.” The capacities, material and determination are still there. Hence, the real outcome may not depend on visible craters, but on the dust stored in Some hidden place of the Iranian subsoil.

And until you know where that uranium is, the “unknown” has only become more difficult to track.

Image | Maxar

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