Hormuz

Saudi Arabia’s ace in the hole to break the Iranian blockade in Hormuz

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Iran’s survival strategy in this war is based on a tactic of geopolitical suffocation: strangling the Strait of Hormuz to impose an unbearable economic cost on the West. However, while the financial market blindly speculates with express truces and the price of fuel follows its own dynamics at the pumps, the physical reality on the ground is about to change. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have a logistical “antidote” capable of rescuing up to 7 million of those barrels, radically changing the equation and breaking Iranian blackmail. The “antidote” in the desert. This lifeline was not improvised yesterday. Known as the East-West Pipeline (or Petroline), It began to be built in the 80s for fear that the war between Iran and Iraq will paralyze the Persian Gulf. According to Middle East Eye, It is a pharaonic artery of some 1,200 kilometers that winds through the Arabian desert, connecting the gigantic extraction fields in the east directly with the port terminal of Yanbu, bathed by the waters of the Red Sea. In this way, the crude oil can go out into the world without coming into the range of the Iranian missiles in Hormuz. As confirmed by the CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, in Financial Timesthe company is working around the clock to raise pumping to the pipeline’s maximum capacity: 7 million barrels per day. Before the crisis, only 2.8 million barrels circulated there. Nasser detailed that about 2 million barrels will remain to feed its refineries on the west coast, leaving the not inconsiderable figure of 5 million barrels per day ready for the global market. The machinery in motion. Saudi Arabia has stepped on the accelerator. “We should reach maximum capacity in a couple of days,” said the head of Aramco, according to statements collected by Reuters. If Riyadh manages to consolidate this route, the kingdom will be able to export close to 70% of its usual shipments. The energy analyst Javier Blas underlines in your column for Bloomberg that right now the critical thing is to look at the flow export outside of Hormuz, and not so much in wellhead production. And shipping data supports this frenetic activity: Bloomberg has detailed as an “armada” of at least 25 supertankers (known as VLCCs) have changed course and are sailing towards the port of Yanbu to load this lifesaving crude oil. Adding to this ball of oxygen is the effort of the United Arab Emirates. Through their Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which also bypasses the dangerous strait to exit the Gulf of Oman, they are providing between 1.5 and 2 million additional barrels per day, according to the data of Wall Street Journal. The small print. However, as with any large-scale emergency logistics operation, there is no magic wand. Experts warn of several blind spots in this strategy: The port funnel: According to the agency Argus MediaAlthough the Saudi pipeline manages to transport 5 million barrels for export, the port of Yanbu has its own limits. Its nominal loading capacity is about 4.5 million barrels per day in two terminals, but market sources place the proven effective capacity closer to 4 million. The fuel crisis (distillates): As Arne Lohmann Rasmussen warns, analyst cited by Middle East Eyethe current problem goes beyond crude oil; It is a diesel and aviation fuel crisis. The pipeline East-West It transports crude oil, not refined products. This leaves markets such as Europe, which were highly dependent on Middle Eastern refineries (such as the gigantic Emirati Ruwais plant, recently hit by a drone). The Houthi threat and the collapse of the tanks: Moving the oil outlet to the Red Sea returns the spotlight to the Houthi rebels in Yemen. As Greg Priddy points outships loading in Yanbu bound for Asia will have to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, exposing themselves to drone attacks. Added to this is that, faced with the inability to remove ships through Hormuz, the Gulf countries are filling their storage reserves to the limit, forcing Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq to drastically cut extraction from their wells, as it has progressed Bloomberg. Buying time in the “Battle of the pipelines”. Nobody in the oil industry deceives anyone. Aramco’s own CEO admitted the “catastrophic consequences” What would a prolongation of this scenario have for the world economy? As Blas concludesthese alternative pipelines do not replace the opening of the Strait of Hormuz permanently. Its main mission is another: to buy valuable time. If the Saudi-Emirati duo manages to get this enormous pipeline to spit millions of barrels into the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman, they will stop the panic at the Western pumps and take away Iran’s main negotiating asset. Far from the political and stock market noise, the resolution of this crisis is being fought in the logistical desert. Image | Aramco Xataka | Light and gas have become luxury items. Europe’s plan is to intervene in prices no matter what the cost

Iran is planting sea mines in Hormuz. And what threatens to blow up is not ships: it is the world economy

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On the maps it looks like just a gap of water between deserts, but it passes through that narrow corridor every day. a gigantic portion of the energy that moves the planet. So narrow that in some sections the ships navigate in maritime lanes of just a few kilometers, constantly monitored by radars, drones and military fleets. For decades, any tension at that point in the Persian Gulf has been capable of shake up prices of oil in a matter of minutes. Imagine if will plant mines. A war also at sea. As bombings and missiles focus attention on the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, a parallel battle has begun to unfold in the Persian Gulf. From the start of the warUS intelligence services They detected signs that Tehran could try to disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by deploying naval mines and small fast boats. The threat is serious enough to have triggered public warnings of Washington and preventive military operations against Iranian ships suspected of participating in these maneuvers. In this context, the control of this narrow maritime corridor has become one of the strategic points more delicate of the conflict, because any disturbance there has immediate repercussions on the global energy supply. The strait, the global energy artery. There is no doubt, the tension is explained by the central role that Hormuz plays in the global energy system. Approximately a fifth of the oil consumed by the planet circulates through this strait of just a few dozen kilometers, in addition to a similar proportion of the international trade in liquefied natural gas. Every day they go through it in normal conditions about twenty million of barrels of crude oil from the producing countries of the Gulf heading to Asia, Europe and America. Powers like China, India, Japan or South Korea depend largely of this step to secure its energy supply, which turns any threat in these waters into an immediate global problem. It is no coincidence that even rumors or minor incidents in the area provoke immediate reactions in the oil markets. The new war. In that scenario it has begun a new phase of the conflict: that of oil tankers navigating between the risk of mines capable of shaking the planet’s economies. American intelligence reports indicate that Iran has begun deploying dozens of these explosives in the strait and keeps intact most of its fleet of small boats capable of planting hundreds more in a short time. The Revolutionary Guard controls much of the area next to the Iranian navy and has a combination of speedboats, minelayer boats, drones and coastal missile batteries that can turn the sea passage into a navigation trap. The goal would not necessarily be to sink large numbers of ships, that too, but to create enough uncertainty enough to paralyze global energy traffic, raise transportation costs and trigger a shock in international markets. In other words, a well-placed mine in these waters can have an economic impact that goes much further of the ship that hits it. First shocks. Faced with this threat, Washington has chosen for acting before mine deployment reaches a larger scale. The US military has confirmed (with videos included) a few hours ago the destruction of at least sixteen Iranian vessels involved in mining operations near the strait, in what US officials describe as pre-emptive strikes based on intelligence about Tehran’s operational plans. These actions seek to prevent Iran from turning the strait into a practically closed area to navigation before the deployment of explosives multiplies. At the same time, the White House has warned that any attempt to block the flow of oil will provoke a much more forceful military response than the operations carried out so far. Trapped oil and markets in panic. The economic consequences are already beginning to become visible. Since the start of the war, oil transit from the Gulf has seriously upsetwith millions of barrels per day that cannot leave the region normally. Countries like Iraq or Kuwait depend almost exclusively of this route to export its crude, which amplifies the potential impact of any interruption. Energy companies have started diverting ships or to look for alternative routeswhile Saudi Arabia tries to compensate for part of the problem by increasing the use of its oil pipeline to the Red Sea. In parallel, the International Energy Agency studies a massive liberation of strategic reserves to contain the impact of the energy crisis. A few kilometers to shake the world. The fragility of the situation is also explained by the geography of the enclave itself. At its narrowest point it barely has 34 kilometers wide and the navigation lanes through which the ships circulate barely exceed three kilometers in each direction. This narrowness makes the place extremely vulnerable to mines, drone attacks or coastal missiles. It is not the first time this has happened, in fact, since how do we countduring the so-called “tanker war” in the eighties, Iran already used mines in these same waters to pressure its adversaries during the conflict with Iraq. History, therefore, suggests that these types of tactics can be surprisingly effective in destabilizing global trade. A planetary blow. The extreme sensitivity of the energy markets to any news coming from Hormuz was fully demonstrated very recently, when a wrong message on social media suggested that the US Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the strait. The simple rumor caused an immediate collapse of crude oil prices and a shake-up in financial markets before authorities clarified that no such operation had occurred. The episode illustrates the extent to which the world watches every movement in these waters with nervousness. In a global energy system so dependent on a few strategic corridors, the mine threat in the Strait of Hormuz has opened a new dimension of war: one in which fate of the world economy it may depend on a maritime corridor just a few kilometers wide. Image | nara, Picryl, naraNZ … Read more

The big winner of the Hormuz blockade is the country that the West has tried to suffocate for years: Russia

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The script was written and the West was already celebrating the definitive economic strangulation of Russia. However, geopolitics has a bad habit of blowing up office plans. Today, the world is witnessing a historical paradox: the United States has just opened the back door to Vladimir Putin’s oil to try to stop a global energy collapse. The war between the United States and Israel against Iran has set the markets on fire, pushing up barrel prices above 100 dollars. Faced with the abyss of an unprecedented crisis, diplomacy has had to surrender to the stubborn reality of infrastructure. The “digital fog” and an emergency rescue. To understand the magnitude of the paralysis you have to look at the maritime traffic monitors. As detailed Bloombergthe Strait of Hormuz has become a “digital fog.” The few ships that dare to sail do so by turning off their location transponders (AIS) and suffering constant interference and GPS spoofing (spoofing) fruit of electronic warfare. In this scenario of physical suffocation, India was on the brink of collapse. The Asian giant is heavily dependent on imports from the Middle East, and the closure of Hormuz has cut off its rennet supplies. Reuters reported last week that state refineries like MRPL (Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd.) have been forced to close entire processing units due to the simple and simple shortage of crude oil. The unexpected lifesaver? In a turn of events, the US administration has had to swallow its own sanctions. As confirmed The Moscow Times and it is observed in the official OFAC document (the Treasury Department’s General License 133), the United States has issued a temporary 30-day waiver, valid until April 4, 2026, allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil loaded on vessels by March 5. Paradoxically, how to explain BloombergIndia had drastically reduced its purchases from Moscow at the beginning of the year after facing the threat of punitive 50% tariffs from Trump himself. Now, cornered by the crisis, dozens of Russian oil tankers that were wandering aimlessly are changing their coordinates on the high seas to come to the rescue of Indian ports. The political story versus the reality of the market. Officially, Washington tries to minimize the impact of this capitulation. In statements collected by The Kyiv Independentthe US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, assured that “there is no change in policy towards Russia” and that the exemption is only a “pragmatic decision.” For his part, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended that this measure “will not provide significant financial benefits to the Russian government” as it is applied only to crude oil stranded at sea. But the reality of the markets tells a very different story. According to CNBCRussian crude oil of the Ural variety has gone from being sold with humiliating discounts of between 10 and 20 dollars, to being traded at a historical premium of between 2 and 4 dollars above the barrel of Brent in its deliveries to India. This injection of capital to Moscow has unleashed an internal political storm. The Democrats They have demanded Trump to immediately reverse the exemption, accusing him of strengthening an adversary. From the humanitarian field, the NGO Global Witness, cited by Guardian, has been blunt, accusing the White House of “feeding Putin’s war machine” to cover up a price crisis that the United States itself has unleashed. Putin rubs his hands. To understand the magnitude of the Russian victory, you have to look at where they were just a month ago. Bloomberg, in your market analysishighlights that Russian exports were under unprecedented pressure. The Kremlin had nearly 140 million barrels stuck in the sea (65% more than usual), and was forced into a suicidal price war against Iran to try to place its surpluses in the limited Chinese refineries. Overnight, the Hormuz blockade removed all of its Middle Eastern competition from the equation. The crisis has been a gift from heaven. From Moscow they don’t even hide. How to collect CNBCKremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov publicly boasted to the press: “We are seeing a significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources in connection with the war in Iran,” reminding the world that Russia “remains a reliable supplier.” Hurt pride and a sea of ​​uncertainty. As Russian ships sail south, the battle of public perception rages in India. Although in the BBC estimates that the country It barely has crude oil reserves for about 25 days, the Indian government is trying to project absolute calm. As reported Mashable Indiaauthorities insist that “there is no shortage in the world.” However, on social networks the narrative is one of deep sovereignist indignation. Politicians like Rajiv Shukla cried out on social network X against American paternalism: “Who is the United States to dictate to us that we can only buy oil from Russia for a month?” Added to this is the harsh reality that there are no easy alternatives. Although Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates They have pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, its maximum capacity barely covers a fraction of the 20 million barrels per day that the world has just lost. The laws of thermodynamics do not understand sanctions. This whole scenario returns us to a conclusion that We already analyzed in the recent crisis of the Druzhba pipeline in Europe. The West has spent years writing laws, imposing price caps and signing embargoes on elegant offices to isolate Russia. But geopolitics always ends up submitting to mathematics and thermodynamics. While China watches the crisis calmly, with its reserves filled to the brim after years of silent strategic purchases, the European Union and the United States have had to swallow their own sanctions in record time to avoid collapse. The energy embargo on Russia has proven to be a gigantic house of cards; It only took someone to cut off the passage through the Strait of Hormuz for everything to collapse. Image | Coded and kremlin.ru Xataka | The EU has a perfect plan to suffocate Russia. The … Read more

China spent 10 billion on oil it did not need. With Hormuz blocked, the puzzle finally makes sense

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As the West panics over the possibility of the barrel break the $100 barrieran eerie calm reigns in Beijing. The Asian giant observes the crisis with the coldness of someone who has already done his homework. During the last few months, the world has been debating the excess oil supply, but the real winner of this war crisis is not firing missiles, but has been filling its storage tanks for years in the most absolute silence. World geopolitics has been blown up a few weeks before the expected summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. As reported Nikkei Asiathe coordinated airstrikes of the United States and Israel (dubbed “Operation Epic Fury“) have culminated in the assassination of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran’s response has been a rain of missiles and drones on American allies in the region. The immediate impact has been felt in the water. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels a day flow (20% of the world’s oil supply), is blocked de facto. As detailed Bloomberg, Rates to hire a supertanker on the route from the Middle East to China have skyrocketed by 600%, reaching $200,000 a day (or 525 Worldscale points for a Suezmax). Besides, France 24 points out that insurers They have increased war risk premiums between 25% and 50%. As reported cnnBrent crude oil jumped 6.5% in the early stages, touching $82, driven by fear of prolonged logistical disruptions. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, warned the US chain that closing Hormuz would cause an immediate global energy crisis. China’s exposed vulnerability On paper, the Donald Trump administration’s offensive should be an absolute nightmare for Xi Jinping. As explained The TelegraphAmerican military adventurism is exposing the gigantic energy vulnerability of China, the largest oil importer in the world, which buys three-quarters of the crude oil it consumes abroad. Washington’s strategy seems clear: suffocate the “rebellious” suppliers that supply the Chinese industrial machinery at bargain prices. Earlier this year, the military capture of Nicolás Maduro has established what some analysts They already call the “Donroe Doctrine”. Trump has been explicit in his goal to control oil. If the United States manages to add Venezuelan production to that of Guyana and its own, it would de facto control 30% of the world’s reserves, according to JP Morgan. This movement cuts supply to China in the bud, evaporating imports that represented around 4% of its maritime purchases. according to data from Kpler collected by The Financial Review. However, Washington’s optimism collides with geology: the infrastructure is so in ruins that loading a supertanker today takes five days and the crude oil arrives so “dirty” that the Chinese and Indian refineries themselves have canceled orders, according to a Reuters investigation. Refloating this industry will cost 10 billion dollars annually for a decade, as Francisco Monaldi calculatesdirector of energy policy at Rice University. For its part, the current blow to Iran. From Chosun Daily details that China bought 80% of Iranian maritime exports last year (about 1.38 million barrels per day), which represents 13.4% of Beijing’s total maritime crude oil imports. As he points out Institute for Energy Research (IER) United States, cited by the same mediumChina has used the heavily sanctioned and cheap oil from these countries to cement its manufacturing competitiveness. Losing Iran and Venezuela would force Chinese refiners — especially the independent ones in Shandong, known as “teapots” — to look for much more expensive substitutes on the open market, threatening to import inflation and slow their economic growth. The master plan in execution If Western analysts expected to see China cornered, they were wrong. Beijing foresaw this scenario of isolation and has been executing a four-pronged master plan for years that today allows it to cushion the blow of Hormuz. While in 2025 the world feared a global oversupply, China dedicated itself to massive purchasing. Last year, China spent $10 billion buying an extra 150 million barrels that it didn’t immediately need, absorbing more than 90% of crude oil storage measurable globally. Supported by a new Energy Law that obliges the public and private sector to maintain reserves, Beijing today has strategic reserves equivalent to at least 96 days of imports, according to The Telegraph. Under the banner of national security, China is investing $80 billion annually in its state oil fields. In March 2025 they reached a production peak of 4.6 million barrels per day and they completed the drilling of the deepest oil well in Asia (10,910 meters). Its goal is not financial profitability, but pure autonomy. With Iran and Venezuela under fire, China has simply turned its head toward Russia and Saudi Arabia. According to oil price, Chinese refineries are absorbing record amounts of Russian crude oil (more than 2 million barrels per day in February 2026), taking advantage of the fact that India has given in to pressure from the US to stop buying from Moscow. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia has cut the official price of its crude oil Arab Light to five-year lows to gain market share in Asia, which has led China to order between 56 and 57 million Saudi barrels by March. China’s definitive move is to abandon the oil board. As analyzed by Professor Hussein Dia in The ConversationChina’s massive commitment to electric vehicles (50% of new car sales last year) and renewable energy is a national security policy. How they collect in The Telegraph, The new five-year plan (2026-2030) seeks to peak oil consumption by accelerating the installation of solar and wind parks (430 gigawatts added last year alone). Unlike the ships in Hormuz, sunlight cannot be blocked by the US Fifth Fleet. The diplomacy of silence and the illusion of OPEC+ In the face of Khamenei’s assassination, the response of the Chinese Foreign Ministry has been one of calculated coldness. They condemned the act as “unacceptable” and a “violation of sovereignty,” but, as pointed out Chosun Dailythey carefully avoided directly mentioning Donald Trump. From Nikkei Asia explains this pragmatism: … Read more

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz already points to gasoline at two euros/liter

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Unpredictable, unexpected and extreme impact. There are three characteristics that define what Nassim TalebLebanese philosopher, mathematician and essayist, pointed out to explain the “black swan theory”. With it he tries to explain what position to take in the face of such an inexplicable event of which we cannot understand its consequences. The theory takes its cue from the poet Juvenal, who once spoke of “a rare bird on earth, and very similar to a black swan“, a phrase that makes it clear that there was a time when it was believed that the swan, invariably, must be white because a black one had never been discovered. The phrase, in fact, was popular in England centuries ago. For Western Europe, swans were white. Spot. But a Dutch expedition at the end of the 17th century in Australia found that the black swan did indeed exist, which forever changed the knowledge we had on this subject. It was an unexpected, unpredictable event whose impact was extreme in its branch. Nacho Rabadán, general director of CEEES (Spanish Confederation of Service Station Employers), the most representative association of the sector, rescues this theory to point out what can happen with a constant block of the Strait of Hormuz. “Whenever there are problems in the Middle East, there is speculation about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz and whenever that possibility is on the table, the price of oil rises. If Hormuz were really closed, we would be talking about a black swan, there would be an immediate and violent reaction in the price of oil and we would be in a scenario similar to that of the spring of 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine,” Rabadán explains to ABC. Gasoline at two euros/liter If the prices of the first days of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are reached, we would be talking about gasoline at a sustained price of between 1.80 and 2.00 euros/liter. At that time, Europe got to work to contain the impact on homes, mitigated in our country with one of subsidy of 20 cents/liter that did not end up stopping the rise in price and which, in fact, came to be used as means to attract clients according to the CNMC. Those days when OPEC maneuvered to keep the price of oil above $80/barrel seems far away. It even reached $130/barrel. But now they seem more alive than ever. The Strait of Hormuz is a key passage for energy for much of the world. It is an enclave of high tension, where the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf narrow to leave just a passage of between 60 and 100 kilometers for ships loaded with oil. For Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, controlling the passage of ships is key. since two weeksthe traffic is committed and with the attack by the United States and Israel on Iranand the country’s response to neighboring countries with US bases, the closure seems confirmed. A closure that has caught some 240 ships stopped in the middle of a historic traffic jam. Of them, Bloomberg The number of detained ships loaded with the precious commodity is estimated at 40 supertankers. The impact on the oil futures market was immediate once the attack became known but, for now, the price per barrel is close to 73 euros/unit (a few days ago it was around 65 dollars/barrel). The impact should be felt in the coming days if the fight becomes entrenched and Hormuz remains closed. For now, the price of gasoline has already risen slightly but the figures we find at the pumps will be, in the opinion of analystsmuch lower than we can expect in a few days. With the Ukrainian War and the Russia’s exit from the market (legal) of fuel, the price of gasoline shot up to 2.15 euros/liter and diesel to 2.10 euros/liter. The fear, of course, is not that only the price of fuel will skyrocket. Increasing its price impacts a general rise in prices since transportation is much more expensive. In fact, indirectly, not only the closure of Hormuz to the passage of oil can make products more expensive. Have to border the entire African coast to reach Europe to avoid attacks by some and others would raise the final bill. Both because of the extra fuel spent and the higher cost of keeping a ship traveling for more than 10 days, which extends the route in traffic between Asia and Europe. Photo | Marek Studzinski and Glenn Fawcett, Gieling, Rob In Xataka | Spain was supposed to raise diesel in 2026. It was supposed

This is the Hormuz “swarm” that threatens to break the $100 barrier

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Just enter Marine Traffic to understand the magnitude of the problem. The entire world is holding its breath before a funnel of water just a few miles wide. Through the Strait of Hormuz travels approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply and a vital quota of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Today, that global artery is suffering a heart attack. An unprecedented escalation in the Middle East, detonated by attacks of the United States and Israel that ended the life of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has unleashed a hail of missiles and drones. The result is a blockage de facto of the most important sea route on the planet. X-ray of a historical traffic jam. The cover image of Marine Traffic It is a veritable swarm of red icons that crowd on both sides of the strait, especially near the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas and off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. Once we move the cursor over the boats, we see that they are still. According to the data of S&P Globalmaritime traffic has plummeted, between 40% and 50%. There are around 240 ships clustered waiting for instructions. Among them, as analyst Weilun Soon details in Bloombergthere are at least 40 supertankers (VLCCs), inactive giants each loaded with about 2 million barrels of crude oil. And time is against us: according to estimates by JPMorganIf this effective closure lasts more than 25 days, producers will run out of space to store crude oil and will have to stop physical production. The chaos is not only physical, it is also electronic. The data team SkyNews has documented severe interference in ship tracking systems (AIS). The signals are so distorted that some oil tankers appear located inland on radars. The fear is more than justified: the war has already spilled into the water. According to reports from the UKMTO (UK Maritime Commercial Operations) cited by Business Insiderthe tanker skylightflying the Palauan flag, was attacked near Oman. The balance has left four injured and 20 crew members urgently evacuated. Markets in panic and freight rates through the roof. The chain reaction has not been long in coming. In a quick look at the bag, we can observe the initial panic of investors: in the first hours of operations, Brent crude oil (the European benchmark) soared by 13%, reaching $82 per barrel—its highest in 14 months. Although it later relaxed to dawn this Monday around $79, the scare was already in the body. This whiplash has had winners and losers in the European stock markets. As you have detailed Guardian, While oil companies (Shell, BP) and defense companies (BAE Systems) rose sharply, airlines such as IAG or easyJet plummeted by around 10% and 7% respectively, terrified by the imminent increase in fuel costs. Moving crude oil today is a high-risk sport. The daily cost of renting a supertanker has skyrocketed by an unusual 600%, reaching $200,000 a day, as Alex Longley warns in Bloomberg. Insurance must be added to this bill: France 24 reports that premiums against war risks They are going to become between 25% and 50% more expensive for those who dare to enter ground zero. The paradox of OPEC+. The next market movement looked askance at the offices. According to the official statement from OPEC+the cartel agreed to inject an additional 206,000 barrels per day starting in April to stabilize prices. However, this measure is, in practice, a logistical mirage. As analyst John Kemp explains: in your column for Finance TimesOPEC+ has excess capacity of more than 3 million barrels per day, but almost all of that capacity is inside of the Persian Gulf countries. In other words, no matter how much extra oil Saudi Arabia or Iraq promise to pump, if the ships cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz, that oil does not exist for the rest of the world. The analysts of wood Mackenzie, collected by oil price, They have been more forceful: “If traffic is not restored quickly, the barrel will pierce the $100 barrier.” The nuances that will define the crisis. Despite the drama, the world has some escape valves that did not exist in the oil crises of the 70s: Lifesaving pipelines: As Kemp explainsSaudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can bypass the strait by exporting some of their crude oil through pipelines to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman. However, countries like Iraq and Kuwait are trapped: they are 100% dependent on Hormuz. Global shock absorbers: Analyst Javier Blas shells in Bloomberg that the shale revolution (shale oil) in the United States gives Washington unprecedented control over supply. Furthermore, China lIt has been filling to the brim for years its strategic reserves, which would soften the blow in the short term. The big beneficiary: Ironically, the blockade is excellent news for Vladimir Putin. As Blas points outa sustained rise in prices makes it easier for Russia to sell its sanctioned crude oil on the Asian black market with much juicier margins. The world holds its breath. At the moment, the global economy is paralyzed waiting for what a few ship captains decide. Maritime transport giants such as Maersk have already announced the temporary suspension of all their transits through the area, how to collect France 24. Laden ships will remain idle, “avoiding drama,” in the words of a shipping broker consulted by S&P Global. Today, the fate of global inflation is decided not on Wall Street or central banks, but in the tense waters of Oman and Iran, where a swarm of steel giants have decided to shut down their engines and pray for the storm to subside. Image | MarineTraffic Xataka | Tension in Iran is so high that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And that will have consequences when you go to refuel.

Tension in Iran is so high that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And that will have consequences when you go to refuel.

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The world woke up today with a dangerous contradiction: while in the aseptic halls of Geneva the diplomats of the United States and Iran they shake hands cautiouslyin the waters of the Persian Gulf, the speedboats of the Revolutionary Guard block the passage of oil tankers. It doesn’t take a missile to fall for the global economy to feel the impact; Fear is trading higher and traveling faster than any ship. The Strait of Hormuz, the planet’s energy jugular, has undergone closure “partial and temporary” for the first time since tensions escalated in January. For the consumer, this is not a distant headline: the price of Brent oil has already increased by 13% so far this year. An increase in prices that does not respond to a real lack of supply, but rather to the geopolitical risk premium. We are paying for what could happen, not for what has happened. As confirmed by Iranian state media cited by EuronewsTehran ordered the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz under the justification of “security precautions.” The Iranian Fars news agency, referenced by Deutsche Welleexplained that this maneuver responds to the military exercises called “Intelligent Control of the Strait of Hormuz.” It is an unprecedented move in this crisis: it is the first time that Iran has physically closed sectors of the waterway since the US administration threatened military action last January. However, it is important to clarify the operational scope so as not to fall into unjustified alarmism. Jakob Larsen, safety director at Bimco (the association representing global shipowners), explained to the CNBC that it is not an indefinite total block. The closure affects the incoming “traffic separation scheme” area and lasts “several hours.” Iranian authorities have asked commercial ships to stay away from the exercise zone, which is causing delays and “minor inconveniences,” but the flow has not stopped completely. A 33 kilometer funnel for 20% of the world’s oil To understand why the market is holding its breath, you have to look at the map. The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) rate this step as the “choke point” (chokepoint) most important in the world for oil transit. The figures are overwhelming: Volume: About 20 million barrels of crude oil, condensates and refined products flow through this artery daily. Global Impact: According to data from consulting firms Vortexa and Kplerthis represents approximately 20% of global consumption of petroleum liquids and nearly 30% of maritime crude oil trade. The problem is geographical. As explained D.W.At its narrowest point, the road is just 33 kilometers wide. But crucially, the safe navigable route for large supertankers is only two miles wide in each direction. It’s a perfect funnel where any interruption, no matter how small, creates an immediate domino effect. He timing of this military operation is not a coincidence; It’s a message. As analyzed Euronewsthe partial closure occurred exactly while the second round of nuclear talks between Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, and Steve Witkoff, US special envoy, was being held in Geneva. For this reason, Tehran is using the strait as a negotiating lever. The United States has increased its military pressure with the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford in the region, in response to both Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the bloody repression of internal protests shaking the Persian country. Paradoxically, diplomacy seems to advance while the guns are aimed. According to ReutersAraghchi confirmed after the meeting that a “principle of agreement” has been reached on the bases of a future relationship, although he warned that closing the final pact will be a slow process. Iran shows its fist in the sea while offering its hand in Switzerland. The price mirage: why do we pay the “fear premium”? The market reaction has been an emotional rollercoaster in the last 24 hours: Tuesday’s mirage: Initially, when the progress in Geneva became known, the price of oil fell. The barrel of Brent fell 1.8% (to $67.36) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 1%. The markets “bought” the hope of peace. Today’s reality, Wednesday: The trend has reversed. Prices are recovering and rising again. As explained in OilPricethe traders have reevaluated the situation: the final agreement seems distant and the physical closure of the strait, although partial, is a tangible reality today. As Sugandha Sachdeva points out, analyst cited by Reutersthe market is experiencing a “technical rally” because doubt dominates the scene. Although 82% of the crude oil that passes through Hormuz goes to Asia (China, India, Japan), oil is a global market. If there is a lack of supply in Asia, those countries will bid for the crude oil available in other regions, making the barrel more expensive for everyone. This has an immediate effect on Europe due to the “financialization” of energy. Gas and oil they have stopped being simple commodities to become financial assets that operate with high-speed algorithms. The volatility is such that “an early morning headline about Iran can alter the price of heating in Berlin before dawn.” The European Achilles heel The situation is especially delicate for the Old Continent. Europe is experiencing a “painful déjà vu“: fleeing from Russian dependence, has fallen into dependence on gas that arrives by ship (LNG). European gas reserves are at worrying lows (44% at the end of January) and vulnerability is maximum. This is where Hormuz plays a critical role beyond oil. As we have detailed in Xatakathe European Union looks to Qatar as a vital alternative for its gas supply, but “military tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz put that route at risk.” If the strait is closed, not only oil to Asia is blocked, but also the Qatari liquefied natural gas that Europe desperately needs to refill its warehouses for next winter. The short-term horizon is bleak. According to an estimate by Eurasia Group collected by OilPricethere is a 65% chance that the United States will launch a military strike against Iran in April if the current talks … Read more

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