If the question is whether we will be able to buy a cheap combustion car in 2035, we already have the answer: no.
The European Commission has presented its proposal for lighten emissions obligations for manufacturers in 2035. It is the confirmation that, if finally approved, Germany has won. And the country has gone on its own in its pressure on the European Union but, in addition, the new proposal reflects the true concerns of its industry. To better understand what has happened, we must remember. In 2022, The European Parliament approved the ban to sell cars that emit CO2 in 2035. The objective was reduce emissions by 100% pollutants target of 2021 and, therefore, that eliminated the possibility of selling any car that used this technology. That is to say, Europe had to jump to the electric car whether it wanted it or not. Some time later, with Germany and Italy putting pressure, the possibility was approved for cars sold from 2035 onwards to use combustion engines powered by efuel. These are synthetic fuels that, supposedly, during their production capture the same or greater amount of CO2 than that emitted by the exhaust pipe. If this is true, the car would be carbon neutral. With the wording that the car must be neutral in carbon emissions, the door was also open to the use of hydrogen cars (both in fuel cell as in format hydrogen combustion). These cars are also carbon neutral for the same reason, but along with their water vapor they do expel certain particles that are harmful to humans such as NOx or fine particles. At the time, the European Union kept a letter. The objectives could be revised and this This is what the European Commission has done. This has approved a proposal that has to be ratified by the European Parliament and the States (Council of Europe). Although it is not, therefore, official, it does anticipate that we will see changes in the rule. This regulation has several key points: The carbon emissions target is reduced from 100% to 90% compared to 2021 figures. The door opens to create a category that has become popular as eCarsmall electric cars (less than 4.2 meters), with their own regulation that will count as 1.3 cars when calculating the fleet’s emissions. The objectives of reducing emissions by 55% in 2030 are postponed to 2032. In those years, a space opens up in which manufacturers will have to comply with the proposed objectives by the end of 2032, with an average of those three years. A measure similar to the one that has been opened in the period 2025-2027. And this completely defines which cars can be sold. The data As we said, Germany has gotten away with these pressures. And in recent days we have seen two clearly differentiated fronts. Spain and France were willing to maintain regulation just as it was. Another group, cwith Germany in the leadproposed the revision of the objectives but the country, however, did not sign the letter of the six dissident countries in which Europe was asked to reverse its environmental policies regarding automobiles. Now, with the requirements that are proposed by the European Commission We know that, if it is finally approved, cars with combustion engines will continue to be sold. But as long as the average fleet of cars on the street guarantees that 90% reduction in emissions, which in practice leaves sales in a vast majority of electric cars punctuated by pure combustion vehicles. It must be taken into account that reducing CO2 polluting emissions by 90% compared to 2021 means that the fleet average will not be able to exceed 11.6 gr/km of CO2 (in 2021 it was 116 gr/km). That implies a ridiculous consumption of just 0.5 l/100 km of gasoline. A figure that is almost impossible to achieve for a specific car. Until now, plug-in hybrids were around 1l/100 km and CO2 averages of 50 gr/km in their official approvals. An already very high figure but will rise with the entry of the new calculation system multiplying the record in CO2 emissions. To compensate for this, a car only has one option left: increase its battery. The intention for 2035 is that plug-in hybrids will have a lot greater electrical autonomy. To give us an idea, the plug-in hybrid with the greatest autonomy on the market right now is the Lynk&Co 08 with 200 approved electric kilometers. Despite everything, Its CO2 emissions remain at 23 gr/km of CO2. That is, they double the maximum allowed in 2035. With this data, the company has to sell one electric car for each of these plug-in hybrids to be right within the limit of permitted CO2 emissions. But, in addition, Homologation criteria will be much stricter from 2028. So much so that a plug-in hybrid car that in 2021 registered around 50 gr/km of CO2 is expected to exceed 120 gr/km of CO2 with the new approval. Therefore, Lynk&Co should sell more than two electrics for each plug-in of the aforementioned Lynk&Co 08. The other option for an electrified vehicle with a combustion engine is the extended range electric vehicle. This type of car is, in practice, a plug-in hybrid but its combustion engine is designed for emergencies. So far we have seen cars like the Mazda MX-30 sold under this name but, in reality, they have a 50 liter fuel tank. What will have to arrive will be more similar to the first BMW i3 REX (the version with range extender) whose tank was 9 liters and, therefore, it was designed for an emergency. Expensive, very expensive Taking all this into account, it is clear that emissions obligations have been relaxed but it is still essential for manufacturers to continue selling a large number of electric vehicles. In practice, the best news for them is that 2025 fines postponed to 2027 and, therefore, they have two more years to comply with the obligation to place the average of emissions from its fleet at 93.6 gr/km of CO2. The plan was to fine 95 euros for each gram exceeded and … Read more
