The result is clear, alarming and there is no turning back
There is an unquestionable reality with the data in hand: In Spain it rains less now than 30 years ago. In fact, the climate has changed since the 90s: temperatures have risen, summers are longer and those rain patterns essential for activities such as agriculture or aquifer recharge are no longer what they used to be. The Spanish state is one of the regions of the planet where climate change is being seen more and better worse. In this climatic context, precipitation data tells a crystal clear story. Meteorologist Roberto Granda from Eltiempo.es has used AEMET Opendata records to draw maps that compare the average annual rainfall between the periods 1961–1990 and 1996–2025 in 71 stations with continuous data for more than 60 years. The first of these periods is not chosen at random: it is the reference climate norm fixed by the World Meteorological Organization, the global standard for detecting anomalies and trends. To distribute the values between stations, Granda applied a geostatistical interpolation technique that incorporates the relief of the terrain, which makes it the most reliable method for mapping precipitation in a geography as irregular as the peninsula. The result is unequivocal: it rains less in Spain, and it is not something specific or local, but structural and widespread throughout almost the entire peninsula. In this climatic context, precipitation data tells a crystal clear story: meteorologist Roberto Granda of Eltiempo.es has used the records of the Spanish Meteorological Agency AEMET Opendata to draw maps that compare the average annual rainfall between the periods 1961 – 1990 and 1996 – 2025 in 71 stations, that is, with continuous data and for more than 60 years. It rains less in Spain and it is not something specific or local: but something structural and that affects almost the entire peninsula. Evolution of average annual precipitation in Spain. Roberto Granda with data from AEMET These first two maps collect the amount of precipitation in both time frames where it can be seen that he rain pattern continues: The north and northwest (Galicia, the Cantabrian coast and the Pyrenees) continue to concentrate the highest rainfall, above 1,500–2,500 millimeters annually, while on the other side of the scale is the southeast of Almería and Murcia, which does not reach 200 mm. But within that known pattern, absolute values have fallen in practically all regions. With the data in hand, it rains less in Spain than it did 60 years ago Difference in precipitation from 1961 to 2025. Roberto Granda The most impressive map is exactly the one above these lines: the difference in rainfall between 1961 and 2025. At a glance it is clear that in almost the entire State the rain is in the red compared to 60 years ago, since the cartography is colored by beige and brown tones on almost the entire peninsular surface. The steepest falls, between 100 and 200 mm per year, are concentrated in inland Galicia, Extremadura and the central-western area. In this last area is Mediterranean aridification at its maximum splendor: the Mediterranean is one of the hot spots of climate change. Fortunately, there are some exceptionsbut they are localized: areas where the variation is practically zero or slightly positive. One of the most obvious is in the extreme northwest of Galicia, especially the Costa da Morte and the province of A Coruña, which maintains or slightly exceeds its historical records thanks to its direct exposure to Atlantic storms. Neutral or slightly greenish tones are also seen in some areas of the Navarrese and Aragonese Pyrenees, and in the corridor of southern Navarra and northern La Rioja, at the transition between the western Pyrenees and the Ebro valley. The meteorologist has also published year-by-year rainfall since the 1990s, allowing for a closer and more detailed analysis. Something that stands out considering the colors is that the variability has skyrocketed. The CSIC has an explanation: Oscillations between dry and humid extremes are precisely a characteristic of the Mediterranean climate under global warming. Precipitation per year. Roberto Granda Although the general trend is less rain, there is years that define the extremes. On the dry side, there are four years that stand out above the rest: the 94-95 biennium, devastating in the south and center of the peninsula, 2005 on the plateau or that 2012 that left reservoirs below minimum levels in half of Spain. At a quick glance, the 2017 orange draws attention: AEMET he rated it as one of the driest years since instrumental records exist. On the wet side, 96 – 97 stand out from what they had before and after, especially in the northwest and central. Also 2010 and 2013 show green and blue coverage well above the average. 2024 deserves special mention: it breaks a long streak and is the wettest year of the last decade in several basins. Of course, a wet year does not work miracles. The AEMET projections are not encouraging: this reduction in rainfall will worsen throughout the 20th century, with decreases of more than 20% in the south and southeast of the peninsula. With longer and more frequent rain events, the rain will be concentrated in more intense, concentrated and tragic events throughout the year. Because paradoxically, this pattern has consequences in both droughts and floods. In Xataka | The temperature your city will have in 2080, simulated on this disturbing interactive map In Xataka | How to see air quality and temperature with Google Maps Cover | Roberto Granda