counted

During the Gulf War, several American pilots returned convinced they had completely destroyed numerous Iraqi underground shelters. Days later, reconnaissance images revealed something disconcerting: Many of those complexes were still active because the explosions had barely blocked secondary entrances while the main infrastructure remained intact under tons of rock and concrete. The big surprise. For weeks, the White House presented the campaign against Iran as a crushing demonstration of modern military power: stealth bombers, precision missiles and coordinated attacks with Israel that had supposedly left the Iranian strategic network reduced to rubble. donald trump came to affirm that Tehran already “had nothing” in military terms and that its missiles had been dispersed and out of combat. However, the new secret evaluations US intelligence agencies describe a radically different and deeply uncomfortable scenario for Washington. After reanalyzing satellite images, underground access and logistical activity, American analysts discovered that Iran maintains operational 30 of its 33 complexes of missiles in the Strait of Hormuz and retains a good part of its mobile launchers and arsenals, in addition to having recovered the 90% access of its underground facilities. The feeling within some national security sectors is beginning to be disturbing: after spending thousands of missiles and selling the world the idea of ​​total destruction, the immense Iranian “missile city” remains practically where it was at the beginning. Architecture of a fortress. Here you have to remember something what do we count weeks ago. The real problem for the United States is not just how many missiles Iran retains, but how they were built and distributed their complexes for decades. Tehran turned entire mountains into underground defensive systemswith tunnels, protected warehouses, redundant access and mobile platforms capable of moving missiles from one point to another even after a bombing. Many installations were not designed to resist a specific attack, but to ensure that they always there will be something operational after any initial wave. That’s where the intelligence reports are causing real concern: Many of the entrances were temporarily sealed, but not completely destroyed, and the vast majority of the complexes they regained access operational in a matter of weeks. In some cases, the Iranians may even continue to launch missiles directly from the facilities themselves. The result is a very different image from the American public narrative: rather than eliminating the threat, Washington seems to have scratched the surface of an infrastructure conceived precisely to survive a war of technological attrition. The hidden price of the operation. The other great revelation of the conflict is not underground in Iran, but inside the own US arsenals. The campaign consumed gigantic amounts of advanced ammunition: more than a thousand stealth cruise missiles, around a thousand Tomahawks and more than 1,300 Patriot interceptors, figures that are equivalent to entire years of industrial production. The Pentagon attempted to balance two incompatible priorities: destroying extremely hardened Iranian complexes and, at the same time, do not empty completely its strategic reserves in the face of possible future crises with China or North Korea. This limitation explains part of the most controversial tactical decisions of the war. Rather spray completely many underground complexes, planners opted to seal access and entrances using fewer bunker buster bombs than necessary to destroy the entire facility. Now the consequences are beginning to appear starkly: it spent enormous amounts of high-end weapons, but the Iranian network continues to retain significant operational capacity. Hormuz as center of gravity. All of this takes on an even more delicate dimension due to where most of Iran’s surviving capacity is concentrated: the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately a fifth of the world’s oil circulates through that maritime strip, and US intelligence believes that Iran maintains enough missiles and launchers there to to continue threatening warships, oil tankers and critical infrastructure. The US Navy maintains a practically continuous presence in the area with more than twenty ships patrolling and holding the blockade, but the strategic reality is beginning to become uncomfortable: even after a gigantic military campaign, Washington has not been able to eliminate Iran’s ability to turn Hormuz into a nightmare for global trade. There is no doubt, this persistence completely alters the initial perception of the war. What seemed like a demonstration of technological supremacy is also beginning to look like a warning about the real limits of modern air power against deeply dispersed underground networks. The political contradiction. Ultimately, the conclusions of the intelligence “count” They are also opening an increasingly visible political rift in Washington. While the White House publicly insists that the operation was a historic success and accuses those who question that story of “virtual betrayal,” internal reports describe a enemy far away of being neutralized. And the contradiction threatens to become both a strategic and political problem. If the ceasefire collapses, Trump would have to decide between accepting that Iran retains a relevant military capability or relaunching an even more costly campaign using ammunition reserves that will most likely take years to recover. The dilemma is especially delicate because European allies They already fear delays in arms deliveries destined for Ukraine due to American industrial wear. The war against Iran was designed to demonstrate strength and restore deterrence, but what is beginning to emerge, however, is another, much more uncomfortable reading: that even the most powerful military machine on the planet may discover too late that destroying a “missile city” buried under mountains is much more difficult than announcing its destruction on television. Image | Iranian Media In Xataka | Suddenly, a military outpost sprouted up in the Iraq desert: it was Israel in its bombing campaign of Iran In Xataka | While everyone was looking at Hormuz, Russia has found a much more important route to supply drones to Iran