I had never lived so many people in Spain. Not at least since there are official records. A few days ago the INE revealed that at the end of the first quarter of 2026 the country had around 49.7 million residents, “the maximum value in the historical series.” In reality there is little surprising about it. The INE takes time using that tagline in its statements on population, in which it also insists on another idea: if Spain is moving in record numbers it is basically thanks to the increase in people of foreign origin. The balance between births and deaths in the country is far away to be good.
The problem is that this demographic salvation table shows symptoms that it will not work indefinitely.
What has happened? What Funcas just published a studysigned by Héctor Cebolla and María Miyar, which basically analyzes whether Spain can rely indefinitely on migration to save it from the demographic winter. In fact, the report of think tank seek (literally) explore “the limits” of immigration for “demographic adjustment.”
It is an important topic for two reasons. First, because the arrival of foreigners has become the great engine of population growth in Spain. Second, because despite the increase in the registry and the fact that the INE has been registering for some time record numbers of residentsthe truth is that the Spanish demographic engine is not exactly oiled. In 2025, the INE counted 446,982 deaths and 321,164 births, which leaves red numbers vegetative growth.
And what is your conclusion? That although the migratory flow is acting as a demographic lifeline, we cannot trust that its effects will continue forever. “Immigration has made it possible to sustain population growth and cushion aging, but it has done so through a mechanism that requires continuous and increasing flows, loses effectiveness over time and does not correct the underlying trends of demographic imbalance,” comment María Miyar Busto, director of Social Studies at Funcas.
It is not about denying the positive effects of immigration, but about “recognizing the limits of the model” and placing it “in its rightful place in the analysis of public policies.” Above all, thinking about the future in the medium and long term. “The short-termism that dominates the debate on the benefits of immigration has not allowed the analysis of the long-term consequences and has favored the absence of an explicit demographic strategy,” duck Onion.
Why this warning? Because after analyzing data on migratory flows and tables of age ranges, birth rates and population growth, Funcas researchers have reached several worrying conclusions.
For example, they have proven that although Spain manages to attract a significant number of immigrants, it is not as effective when it comes to retaining them. They have also confirmed that the population of foreign origin shows signs of a progressive aging and that over time their demographic patterns (such as birth rates) end up being similar to those of Spanish families.
What does the data say? To begin with, Spain has a problem when it comes to determining the migrant population. The country is attractive enough to attract foreigners, but only a portion ends up putting down roots here, contributing to the demographics and economy. And to show you a button: although between 2002 and 2024 they entered Spain almost 15 million of people, the population only increased by seven million.
That leaves our country in a peculiar situation. Spain is the main recipient of immigration in Europe in relative terms and between 2013 and 2023 it absorbed 16% of the immigration that arrived on the continent, however for years its retention rate has been one of the lowest in the region: 51%. That, remember Funcasforces Spain to maintain “high inflows to sustain a population that is constantly renewed.”
Why is that a problem? Because for the model to continue supporting Spanish demographics, it requires “growing and uninterrupted” migration, something complicated every time that population arrives from countries (especially in America) who are also aging.
Is it the only warning sign? No. The study de Funcas also questions whether immigration will serve to rejuvenate the registry. Researchers calculate that the foreign population that has already turned 55 years old shot up by 42% between 2021 and 2025. This is almost 20 percentage points more than the growth recorded by the immigrant population between 20 and 54 years old, which increased by 25%. What’s more, the think tank It is estimated that around a quarter (22%) of immigrants have already blown out the 55 candles.
How young are the immigrants? “The population born abroad is no longer a young population, but rather less aged than the native population,” they respond from Funcas, which also warns that this “gap” between residents born in Spain and abroad will reduce as the immigrants who moved to Spain at the beginning of the century, between 2000 and 2008, before the great brick crisis, approach retirement age. To underline this idea, the research center provides a revealing calculation.
“In absolute terms, the increase in the immigrant population aged 55 or over between 2021 and 2025 (42%) means that more than 615,000 people of that age were added to the Spanish population, a figure equivalent to the population of Malaga, a dynamic that anticipates greater pressure on the health and dependency systems,” slide. The phenomenon is especially clear in Spain, one of the EU countries where the most adult immigrants arrive. If you look at 2024, only 13% of new residents were under 15 years old. At the opposite pole, 18% were over 55.
Do they behave differently? That is another of the keys that Funcas focuses on. If we Spaniards ourselves resist having large families or move to rural areas…Why should immigrants, people who often face a more complex economic starting point and lack a family support network, act differently?
Onion and Miyar even talk about a “Spanishization” of reproductive behavior. Despite the significant increase in the number of women of childbearing age, the total number of births to immigrant mothers decreased by 10% between 2009 and 2024. If we talk about the number of children per resident immigrant, the drop is even more pronounced, around 32%.
Is the change so clear? “Immigrant households converge quickly, in a single generation, with the reproductive patterns of the native population, so the rejuvenating effect provided by immigration has an expiration date.” This ‘homogenization’ is not only felt in motherhood. It is also visible at a geographic level.
Immigrants and their children often help to rejuvenate the territory, but this effect is felt above all in regions such as Catalonia or the Balearic Islands, areas that are stronger economically and demographically. The effect is more limited where it is really needed, such as Galicia or Asturias. For technicians that shows a “geographical paradox”.
Images | Harry Bradrocco (Unsplash) and Jerome (Unsplash)
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