tension

Tension in Iran is so high that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And that will have consequences when you go to refuel.

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The world woke up today with a dangerous contradiction: while in the aseptic halls of Geneva the diplomats of the United States and Iran they shake hands cautiouslyin the waters of the Persian Gulf, the speedboats of the Revolutionary Guard block the passage of oil tankers. It doesn’t take a missile to fall for the global economy to feel the impact; Fear is trading higher and traveling faster than any ship. The Strait of Hormuz, the planet’s energy jugular, has undergone closure “partial and temporary” for the first time since tensions escalated in January. For the consumer, this is not a distant headline: the price of Brent oil has already increased by 13% so far this year. An increase in prices that does not respond to a real lack of supply, but rather to the geopolitical risk premium. We are paying for what could happen, not for what has happened. As confirmed by Iranian state media cited by EuronewsTehran ordered the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz under the justification of “security precautions.” The Iranian Fars news agency, referenced by Deutsche Welleexplained that this maneuver responds to the military exercises called “Intelligent Control of the Strait of Hormuz.” It is an unprecedented move in this crisis: it is the first time that Iran has physically closed sectors of the waterway since the US administration threatened military action last January. However, it is important to clarify the operational scope so as not to fall into unjustified alarmism. Jakob Larsen, safety director at Bimco (the association representing global shipowners), explained to the CNBC that it is not an indefinite total block. The closure affects the incoming “traffic separation scheme” area and lasts “several hours.” Iranian authorities have asked commercial ships to stay away from the exercise zone, which is causing delays and “minor inconveniences,” but the flow has not stopped completely. A 33 kilometer funnel for 20% of the world’s oil To understand why the market is holding its breath, you have to look at the map. The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) rate this step as the “choke point” (chokepoint) most important in the world for oil transit. The figures are overwhelming: Volume: About 20 million barrels of crude oil, condensates and refined products flow through this artery daily. Global Impact: According to data from consulting firms Vortexa and Kplerthis represents approximately 20% of global consumption of petroleum liquids and nearly 30% of maritime crude oil trade. The problem is geographical. As explained D.W.At its narrowest point, the road is just 33 kilometers wide. But crucially, the safe navigable route for large supertankers is only two miles wide in each direction. It’s a perfect funnel where any interruption, no matter how small, creates an immediate domino effect. He timing of this military operation is not a coincidence; It’s a message. As analyzed Euronewsthe partial closure occurred exactly while the second round of nuclear talks between Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, and Steve Witkoff, US special envoy, was being held in Geneva. For this reason, Tehran is using the strait as a negotiating lever. The United States has increased its military pressure with the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford in the region, in response to both Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the bloody repression of internal protests shaking the Persian country. Paradoxically, diplomacy seems to advance while the guns are aimed. According to ReutersAraghchi confirmed after the meeting that a “principle of agreement” has been reached on the bases of a future relationship, although he warned that closing the final pact will be a slow process. Iran shows its fist in the sea while offering its hand in Switzerland. The price mirage: why do we pay the “fear premium”? The market reaction has been an emotional rollercoaster in the last 24 hours: Tuesday’s mirage: Initially, when the progress in Geneva became known, the price of oil fell. The barrel of Brent fell 1.8% (to $67.36) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 1%. The markets “bought” the hope of peace. Today’s reality, Wednesday: The trend has reversed. Prices are recovering and rising again. As explained in OilPricethe traders have reevaluated the situation: the final agreement seems distant and the physical closure of the strait, although partial, is a tangible reality today. As Sugandha Sachdeva points out, analyst cited by Reutersthe market is experiencing a “technical rally” because doubt dominates the scene. Although 82% of the crude oil that passes through Hormuz goes to Asia (China, India, Japan), oil is a global market. If there is a lack of supply in Asia, those countries will bid for the crude oil available in other regions, making the barrel more expensive for everyone. This has an immediate effect on Europe due to the “financialization” of energy. Gas and oil they have stopped being simple commodities to become financial assets that operate with high-speed algorithms. The volatility is such that “an early morning headline about Iran can alter the price of heating in Berlin before dawn.” The European Achilles heel The situation is especially delicate for the Old Continent. Europe is experiencing a “painful déjà vu“: fleeing from Russian dependence, has fallen into dependence on gas that arrives by ship (LNG). European gas reserves are at worrying lows (44% at the end of January) and vulnerability is maximum. This is where Hormuz plays a critical role beyond oil. As we have detailed in Xatakathe European Union looks to Qatar as a vital alternative for its gas supply, but “military tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz put that route at risk.” If the strait is closed, not only oil to Asia is blocked, but also the Qatari liquefied natural gas that Europe desperately needs to refill its warehouses for next winter. The short-term horizon is bleak. According to an estimate by Eurasia Group collected by OilPricethere is a 65% chance that the United States will launch a military strike against Iran in April if the current talks … Read more

On the anniversary of the incident on Perejil Island, the tension has returned. So Spain has deployed a war ship

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July 2002. A group of Moroccan soldiers occupies the uninhabited Perejil isletlocated a few meters from the North African coast. That caused an immediate military response from Spain to restore the status quo. The crisisbrief but intense, tense to the fullest relations between the two countries and forced an international mediation that culminated with the demilitarization of the islet and a tacit agreement to keep it free of official presence, even today of the diplomatic fragility in the Strait. In fact, the tension has risen again. A new climb. Yes, the most delicate strip of the Western Mediterranean, the Strait of Gibraltarit is again in the center of a geopolitical pulse between Spain and Morocco, marked by a succession of diplomatic, operational and symbolic gestures that have reactivated old ghosts, especially around the Islet of Perejil. First it was The confidential the one who revealed a “discomfort.” Apparently, the recent participation of Delegate of the Polisario Front In the National Congress of the Popular Party it has served as a trigger for a series of Moroccan measures, which include the sudden closure of commercial customs with Ceuta and Melilla, An official letter of the Istiqlal party demanding the popular leader of his adhesion to the Moroccan Autonomy Plan for the Western Sahara, and The reappearance In Castillejos of the Committee for the Defense of the Causes of the Kingdom, an organization linked to Rabat’s intelligence services and headed by the controversial former senator Yahya Yahya. Return of nationalism. In fact, they counted in an interview In Spanish that with an inflammatory rhetoric and a clear will to provoke, this committee has announced its intention to celebrate a Symbolic meeting in the Islet of Perejil with the explicit objective of claiming the “territorial unity” under the amparo of King Mohamed VI. Although the landing did not occur, the staging was carefully designed: Photographs with the islet in the background, nationalist slogans and direct references to the policy of the Popular Party. The coincidence with the Anniversary of the Occupation Moroccan of 2002 and the issuance of A documentary miniseries On that episode, a production that has not liked in Morocco and tried to censor without success, underline the symbolic load of the gesture and its propaganda dimension. Furor frigate Spain responds. It Europasur counted. In a climate of prudent but firm containment, the General Staff of the Defense has deployed The maritime action ship Fury In the vicinity of Peñón de Vélez de la Gomera and of the island of Alborán, within the framework of routine operations of naval presence and coastal control. The surveillance of the peñones and islets of Spanish sovereignty on the African coast not only responds to reasons of border security and fight against illicit traffic, but also to the need to maintain the Territorial integrity In front of maneuvers that, although covered with theatricality, seek to test Spanish resilience and tighten the diplomatic line. Moroccan strategy No doubt, parallelism with the situation prior to the parsley crisis in 2002 is, at least, disturbing. So, Morocco took advantage of the social seizure In the ejido after a wave of racist violence to rehearse a territorial occupation. Today, episodes such as Pacheco Torre disturbanceswith these clashes between Spanish neighbors and Moroccan citizens, they could be interpreted by Rabat as useful internal cracks to exert pressure. Logic seems to be repeated: use the fragility of the Spanish domestic context to reinforce its thesis About the Western Sahara and his aspirations about Ceuta, Melilla and other territories under Spanish sovereignty. Symbolism and provocation. In short, while the Spanish government maintains its Official adhesion to the Moroccan Autonomy Plan for Sahara, the Popular Party and other political forces are committed to returning to positions closer to the resolutions of the United Nations, feeding a debate that Rabat instrumentalizes To condition alliances and project strength. The recent one Group activation Moroccan nationalists, the mobilization of figures close to power and explicit threats against Spanish political actors seems to be part of a broader strategy of hybrid pressure. Of course, the Moroccan flag does not wave in Perejil, but the only attempt to plant it is enough to remember how fragile that thin line remains between the propaganda gesture and the real diplomatic crisis. Image | EFORGE, General Staff of Defense, Carlosvdehabsburg In Xataka | The Strait of Gibraltar was very different eight million years ago. So different that there were two In Xataka | A 15 kilometers tunnel to join the Strait of Gibraltar: the pioneer and crazy idea raised 100 years ago

22% of renewable plants did not meet the basic tension control criteria during the blackout. And the regulations already demanded it

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Almost two months after the blackout that disconnected Spain and Portugal, the government has released the technical report That analyzes what happened. The document, prepared after checking hundreds of data gigabytes, discards any external attack and points to a chain of technical errors. The decisive factor, according to the document: A network without sufficient capacity To control tension at critical moments, especially in renewable parks. A critical fact. During the blackout, different plants were disconnected preventively when detecting overtheions. The problem is that, According to the reportseveral of these disconnections occurred before even the maximum voltage thresholds allowed by the regulations will be reached. In other words, they did not respond properly to the network conditions. As has pointed out The energy expert, Javier Blas, 22% of the renewable plants did not comply with the criteria required by current regulations. I already demanded it. This is not a case of legal lagoon or regulatory vacuum. The report itself He has made clear that the technical demands for response to surge were already in force. European regulations –Regulation (EU) 2016/631also known as “requirements for generators” (RFG) – establishes behavior requirements for generating plants connected to the network. By the Electric Red Operation Proceduresespecially PO 12.3 (on technical requirements of generation facilities) and PO 9 (on supply quality and safety), already included the obligation to maintain the connection against voltage variations within defined margins. Not adapted to your own transition. The report too He has pointed out to a structural problem: the electricity grid has not evolved at the same pace than the massive renewable deployment. At the time of the blackout, 82% of the generation in operation was renewable. However, the number of synchronous centrals – fundamental to stabilize the network – was the lowest of the year. In this way, the network faced an explosive cocktail: a lot of distributed generation, little centralized control and little response capacity against critical events. A domino effect that, in just 12 seconds, led to the total disconnection of the Iberian system of the rest of Europe. The solutions on the table. The document proposes a package of ambitious measures. Among which we find to strengthen supervision to ensure normative compliance, immediately implement a specific technical service so that renewables actively participate in the voltage control and Increase electrical interconnection with France. Purifying responsibilities. The Government has pointed out both Electric and Electric Companies and possible responsible. From RedeiaBeatriz Corredor has responded ensures that they have not provided all the necessary information, and that the received did not have the desirable quality to clarify what happened. In addition, Corridor recalled that Red Electrica does not manage private networks or distributed control centers, and that its role is limited to guaranteeing the physical compatibility of the system with the programs that result from the electricity market. Image | Pexels Xataka | 49 days after the blackout, the government has published the official report. Against all prognosis, he points to a culprit

The global tension cannot with ASML. It will build a huge campus equivalent to 50 soccer fields

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ASML is going to expand. And he will do it in a very ambitious way. This company of the Netherlands has been a lot of pressure by Dutch and American governments because it is The only manufacturer of planet’s lithography equipment capable of producing extreme ultraviolet machines (UVE). These equipment are those used to manufacture the most advanced semiconductors that exist with integration technologies of 7 nm or less. The tension held by the US and China has seriously compromised ASML business in the country led by Xi Jinping. In fact, the sanctions that US administration has deployed and that the Netherlands government has supported them have prevented him from giving his Chinese clients his UVE teams. In addition, since the beginning of 2024 he can not sell in China either Your deep ultraviolet lithography machines (UVP), nor can you provide some support and maintenance services to your Chinese clients. ASML trusts its future despite the delicate situation in which it is located In 2022 the sales of this company in China amounted to 2.9 billion euros, which represented 13.8% of its annual sales. At that time Taiwan was a more important market for Asml than China. In fact, in 2023 the clients of the island bought lithography equipment for a total value of 8,100 million euros, while its Chinese clients disbursed 7.3 billion euros. And, curiously, in 2024 China consolidated as the largest market for ASML with total sales of 10.2 billion euros. ASML has no competition in the manufacture of avant -garde lithographic equipment To understand where this figure comes from, we need to keep in mind something important. As we have seen, ASML cannot sell its most advanced teams to its Chinese clients, such as extreme ultraviolet lithography machines (UVE) or deep ultraviolet (UVP), but at the moment you can give them the solutions that allow them produce chips with mature integration technologies. These are the semiconductors that are mostly used in cars, appliances or electronic devices, among other products, and usually occur in nodes of 28 nm or less advanced. Whatever it is evident that the commercial and technological war that are pouring the US and China in full struggle for world supremacy It is seriously harming both the ASML business and that of many other technology companies, such as Nvidia, AMD, Applyed Materials or Tokyo Electron. In these circumstances it seems reasonable to think that the future of this Dutch company is uncertain, but it is very important that we do not overlook something that we have already addressed in this article: ASML has no competition in the manufacturing market of vanguard lithographic equipment. This favorable circumstance has caused its capacity to produce UVE machines and Haute Opening UVE Be lower than demand, so ASML managers have made a decision: they will build a new campus near Eindhoven (Netherlands) that will allow them continue growing and responding to the growing demand They have their semiconductor manufacturing equipment. According to the newspaper Edthat, precisely, it is housed in Eindhoven, initially these facilities were going to be ready in 2030, but will finally be prepared for the first 20,000 additional employees to be installed in them in 2028. Image | ASML More information | Ed In Xataka | Japan wants to recover leadership as a manufacturer of lithography equipment. And he has a plan to end the Asml monopoly

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