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An economic science fiction text has sunk Visa and Mastercard in the stock market. The reason is more disturbing than the story itself

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Citrini Research, a hedge fund American published this week a text written as if it were a macroeconomic memorandum from June 2028. It is not a prediction, its authors warn. It is a speculative exercise. A feasible scenario. It has achieved 24 million impressions, and counting. It is not an anecdotal tweet. The markets they have responded by sinking. Visa has fallen 4.4%. Mastercard, 6.3%. American Express, almost 8%. And Capital One, 8%. This deserves an explanation. And it’s not what it seems. Between the lines. The market reaction is not explained by the specific content of the Citrini Research report, which includes arguments as debatable as that AI agents will abandon cards to pay with stablecoins in Solana. Antonio Ortiz, technology analysts, has pointed it out precisely: part of the argument “it is from the first of Twitter AI-hype“. The idea that an agent will compare twenty food delivery apps vibecodeadas to find the cheapest one smells like a caricature of the future. But the panic is not irrational. It is precisely the panic of not knowing where the limit is. Why is it importantand. What has moved the market has not been so much the thesis about payments but the thesis about the destruction of value. And that is solid: many billions of dollars of market capitalization have been built on a single foundation: that humans are slow, impatient, forgetful and loyal out of inertia. That we do not compare prices. That we renew subscriptions that we do not use. And that we pay commissions that we do not negotiate. An AI agent has none of those weaknesses. And that changes everything. The backdrop. Citrini’s report comes at a time when the so-called “saaspocalypse“is no longer a metaphor. WSJ states that investors are terrified by the possibility that AI ends up doing the work that large software companies bill for today. ServiceNow, Salesforce, business management platforms… all built on the premise that companies need software for their employees to do their jobs. But… what happens when employees disappear? What if the software itself can be replicated in weeks with agentic coding tools? Citrini’s fiction begins exactly there, in early 2026, when a competent developer can reproduce the core functionality of a mid-market SaaS in a few weeks, and constructs a scenario of systemic collapse. The big question. The report’s most disturbing argument is that in every previous technological cycle, job destruction created new jobs that only humans could do. This time, AI is already occupying those new positions as well. If that’s true—if AI improves faster than workers can reorient themselves—the self-correcting mechanism that has always kept creative destruction from turning into outright destruction wouldn’t work. That is the scenario that the markets have discounted this week, even if only partially and speculatively thanks to a creepypasta financial. Yes, but. The scenario requires assuming a speed of adoption that is not guaranteed, a completely absent political response and a total absence of new economic sectors. None of the three conditions are set in stone. Furthermore, as Antonio points out, there is some collective hysteria in the reaction: each announcement or “scary story catches attention and moves investors.” Markets are trading in panic over the unknown. But there’s an important difference between saying “this scenario won’t happen” and saying “this scenario is impossible.” And that difference is exactly what has the market nervous. The alarm signal. The most striking thing this week is that a speculative text, written in economic science fiction format, has been enough to move billions in market capitalization. That says a lot about the state of certainty in the markets regarding AI: it is practically non-existent. Nobody really knows how much a company whose moat It is human friction in a world where that friction is disappearing. The canary is still alive. But investors have stopped trusting the canary. In Xataka | AI promised to revolutionize all sectors. It has only revolutionized programming while the rest is still waiting Featured image | Avery Evans

Steam Deck is out of stock, and PS6 and Switch 2 are already shaking

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Considerable tension in the video game industry at a point in which it is perhaps not going through its healthiest moment. The last slap that shakes a sector that already balances in a moment of perfect storm is the shortage of DRAM chips, driven primarily by the demands of the artificial intelligence industry and its demands regarding data centers. Valve has already announced that hard times are coming for its warehouses and stocks, and rumors about changes in stock, prices and launches of Switch 2 and Playstation 6 are constant. The first, the Steam Deck. If you tried to buy a Steam Deck from the United States last week, you would see the ‘Out of stock’ message. Was a disappearance without warning and that affected the 512 GB and 1 TB OLED models (the 256 LCD has not been available for several months). It is something that, at the moment, only affects to Valve’s home country and Canada: In most European countries and some Asian markets it is still available. With a brief note, Valve has confirmed it from the website: The component crisis due to the demands of the AI ​​market has left the console models that were still available out of stock. And remember that when the LCD 256GB stock runs out, that will be all for that model. At the moment there are no clues about when the missing consoles will be back on sale or if prices will increase. Delays at Valve. There is another consequence of this component crisis: the delay of the company’s next releases, the Steam Machine, the Steam Frame and the new Steam Controller. In it steam hardware blog The company acknowledged that it was not able to offer prices or launch dates, despite the initial intention to launch them in the first quarter of the year. The launch window was moved from “beginning of 2026″ to “first half of 2026”. As for the price, which remains unknown, the analysts’ first intuitions set it for the Steam Machine between 700 and 800 dollars. Since then, subsequent calculations have skyrocketed beyond a thousand dollars. Could be, As some analysts commentthat Valve is prioritizing the available memory stock towards the Steam Machine, leaving its laptop on a secondary level, and hence the lack of stock? In any case, the second-hand market rubs his ditto. The devastating DRAM crisis. The problem behind this shortage is the supply crisis of DRAM, a type of memory present in computers, consoles or smartphones. The three manufacturers that control 90% of production (Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron) have been overwhelmed by demand for artificial intelligence data centers. Some reports speak of something that goes beyond a conventional cyclical shortagewhich points to a necessary reformulation of needs and prices. The problem is that manufacturing HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), the high-density and extremely high-performance variant that powers the AI ​​centers, makes Samsung and company have to limit DRAM production, and LPDDR5 production, the standard used by devices like the Steam Deck, plummets. Consequence: DRAM prices increased by around 50% throughout 2025, with another 30% increase in the fourth quarter of the year, followed by a further increase of around 20% so far this year. The situation does not seem to be going well finish in the next few months. Collateral damage 1: PS6. Bloomberg was the one who gave the alarm voice: Citing sources close to Sony, he revealed that the company was thinking of delaying the launch of PS6 until 2028 or 2029. If this last possibility happens, we would be in the longest interval between Playstation generations in history: nine years. Beyond the wait it entails for the players, it also disrupts developers’ plans and projects which, according to most sources, would have planned their launches around 2027. Technically, and although with PS6 we are in rumor territorythe console would arrive equipped with 30 GB of GDDR7 RAM, fourteen gigabytes more than PS5. At a time when Samsung has sold all its production capacity by 2026 and Micron has confirmed which does not have the capacity for new contracts until 2027, mass manufacturing PS6 is unfeasible. At least with PS5 there is no need to worry: Sony has confirmed which has enough memory to cover its needs for 2026 and 2027, which also guarantees that there will be no price increases. Collateral Damage 2: Switch 2. The ballot that Nintendo has in its hands is even more problematic, because Switch 2 It is already on the market, but it may have no choice but to raise the price in 2026. Bloomberg reported it in the same PS6 article, also citing people familiar with the crisis. Significantly, Nintendo was one of those responsible for the memory supply during 2025 being strained: its splendid launch and sales are, in part, responsible for the current situation. According to different sourcesNintendo would currently be paying 41% more for the 12 GB of RAM that is in each Switch 2 unit, compared to the cost anticipated in its original projections. Maintain current price would suppose a loss of $50 per unit sold during 2026: a drain (the console has already sold almost 18 million units) that not even the Japanese giant can afford. At the moment there are no official decisions, but the president of Nintendo recognized that “the current memory market is very volatile”: in the presentation of results admitted that the increase in component prices “exceeds our expectations”, although also that the company has accumulated inventory and closed long-term supply agreements. Nobody escapes. We have before us the three great sectors of the world gaming: PC, home console and hybrid consoles. All three have the same problem, and it cuts across the most powerful companies, which tells us not about a specific crisis, but about one that has structural overtones, and that goes beyond the video game sector. For example, PC users are already facing price increases or manufacturers like Dell and Lenovo considering reducing the RAM of your laptops mid-range. … Read more

and the stock market gets restless

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SpaceX is exploring two merger scenarios: joining with Tesla or xAI, as reported Bloomberg and Reuters citing sources familiar with the matter. This above all is a warning for those who currently have investments in one of Elon Musk’s companies, although it is also a situation that can generate a business earthquake. Perhaps the biggest stock market movement in history. We are going in parts to explain everything we know so far. Two paths on the table. According to Bloomberg, SpaceX has internally discussed the viability of a merger with Tesla, pushed by some investors in the aerospace company. For its part, Reuters point that a combination with xAI is also being evaluated, which could materialize before the IPO scheduled for this year. Of course, it should be noted that none of the companies involved have publicly confirmed these conversations, and sources warn that no final decisions have been made. Movements. Last year, SpaceX agreed invest $2 billion in xAI, according to The Wall Street Journal, and this week Tesla also revealed that it had allocated the same amount to the AI ​​startup, according to account the middle. On the other hand, it is worth mentioning that xAI acquired X (formerly Twitter) in 2024, in an operation that valued xAI at $80 billion and the social network at $33 billion, as Musk himself mentioned. Here we once again witness a circular economy movement among its companies, with consequences that remain to be seen. The logic. There are several legs here. On the one hand, it is worth mentioning that Musk has a thorn in his side build data centers in space to feed AI, something he has expressed on several occasions. In this way, a merger with xAI would allow SpaceX to accelerate this project, taking advantage of xAI’s computing capacity for its in-orbit facilities. In the case of a merger with Tesla, the move could serve well to leverage its ability to manufacture energy storage systems, something that could help SpaceX expedite the development of systems that use solar energy in space to power these data centers. Musk has also talked about using Starship rockets to transport optimus robots from Tesla to the Moon and Mars. The interest of investors. Regardless of the path chosen, any deal could attract considerable interest from many investors, especially infrastructure funds or Middle Eastern sovereign investors, according to they count from Bloomberg. The outlet also relies on public documents in Nevada that show that on January 21, two legal entities were formed with the expression “merger sub” in their names. The name of Bret Johnsen, SpaceX’s chief financial officer, appears in these documents. Between the lines. The operation raises some questions. If SpaceX acquires xAI, SpaceX shareholders could see their stake diluted. If Tesla buys xAI, its shareholders would effectively be financing a bailout of Musk’s other businesses. In any case, it is clear that the possible merger would raise several blisters. The numbers at stake. SpaceX reached a valuation of approximately $800 billion by the end of 2025, according to counted TechCrunch, becoming the most valuable private company in the United States. Tesla has a market capitalization of around $1.56 trillion. According to BloombergSpaceX is contemplating an IPO that could value the company at around $1.5 trillion, possibly in June, close to Musk’s birthday and with a fundraising of up to $50 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in history. Initial reaction. Tesla shares rose as much as 4.5% in after-hours trading after news the news from Bloomberg. Johnsen told employees in December that a possible IPO would help drive “a huge rate of flight” for the Starship rocket and a possible base on the Moon. Meanwhile, the media also says that Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Robinhood Markets are already positioning themselves to host the operation. Cover image | Flickr (Ministry of Communications) and SpaceX In Xataka | There is a perfect time of year to ask for a raise: January to March

Sandisk has risen 1,000% in the stock market since the summer. Its advantage is called Kioxia

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In just five months, Sandisk shares have soared 1,000% in one of the most astonishing recoveries in Wall Street history. The company has been the latest big beneficiary of the AI ​​boom and the rush to build data centers full of advanced AI chips… and also the memories that accompany those chips. That’s where Sandisk’s great asset comes in, called Kioxia. Value of Sandisk shares in the last six months. Source: Google Finance. Without knowing it, SanDisk was ready for the revolution. HBM memories were traditionally the favorites to accompany GPUs that were the great “brain” of AI, but the scarcity of these components with high bandwidth has meant that the spotlight has been focused for a few months on DRAM and NAND memories, two types of storage in which sanDisk is a dominant player. Like other manufacturers in its segment —Micron is one of the outstanding—, SanDisk has suddenly found itself in a situation that benefited it enormously. free money. The memory chip market works like a commodity market in which leverage can be significant. That means that when prices rise, companies like SanDisk don’t need to invest in new factories or employees to earn more — although they can build them if they deem necessary. It is as if for Micron or SanDisk this phenomenon is equivalent to “free money” because they are receiving much more income for the same products they sold a year or two ago. Not even they themselves expected it: SanDisk CEO David Goeckeler talked about the rise of AI in June, and commented “We try to estimate demand. We think demand is good. What we need is to get supply to match that.” He couldn’t anticipate what would happen with memories starting in September. DRAM and NAND memory prices are skyrocketing from the end of 2025. Source: Sherwood. The key alliance: Kioxia. In recent times SanDisk has grown significantly in your solid state drive business (SSD) for enterprise data centers. But it also maintains a historical strategic alliance with the Japanese company Kioxia, which allows it to obtain NAND chips at a much lower cost than its rivals. The profit margin skyrockets, and so do the shares on the stock market. A relationship with ups and downs. The relationship between Sandisk and Kioxia (formerly Toshiba Memory) is based on a Joint Venture from more than 20 years ago focused on the development of NAND memories. This alliance has achieved advances such as the memories BICS Flash (with 3D storage technology), the wafers that leave their factories are shared between both companies. Kioxia went through a difficult time after Toshiba’s financial crisis and failed merger attempts with Western Digital. They survived all this, and together with Sandisk now the Japanese company controls 30% of the global NAND market. Some win, others lose. The investment fund Elliot Management pushed in early 2025 for SanDisk will separate from Western Digital. They believed that at that time it was worth about $20 billion—as when he bought it a decade ago—, and that fund sold its stake just before the total market explosion. Today that stake would be worth more than $340 million. Bad business for users. But in addition to that background, the ones who have it most complicated are the users, who will continue to suffer the consequences of this phenomenon for months, and perhaps years. Neither Micron nor Sandisk/Kioxia appear to have any intention of significantly expanding production capacity. They already did this during the pandemic and that caused excess inventory when demand fell after confinement. Now they do not want to expose themselves to the same thing, and there is talk that the price increase will continue throughout 2026 and may let’s take a long time in seeing memories at prices “like those before”… if we end up seeing them. Image | Igor Shalyminov In Xataka | Japan has taken out the checkbook to once again dominate the chip industry. Prepare a plan of 325,000 million dollars

a stock of billions of dollars

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These are not easy times for the alcohol industry. And not only for the crossfire of the trade war, ups and downs of prices or the apparent loss of interest of Generation Z for drinking. As customers demand less whiskey, cognac and tequila, the giants of the sector have found themselves with a growing stock that some estimates already put at 22 billion dollars. Thousands and thousands of bottles that threaten to strain the finances of large manufacturers and (even worse) unleash a price war that clouds their future. “The accumulation of inventories is unprecedented,” warn. A huge “lake of liquor”. So recently described Financial Times the panorama that the large distillate manufacturers have encountered, giants of the sector that have their warehouses full of bottles that cannot be disposed of. To be exact, the newspaper claims that five of the titans of the industry that are listed (Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Campari, Brown Forman and Rémy Cointreau) have a stock of aged spirits valued at 22 billion. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Breaking schemes. If the figure seems high, it is because it is. Those $22 billion mark the highest level of stock in more than a decade and there are already those who warn that they paint a delicate picture. “The accumulation is unprecedented,” recognize FT Trevor Stirling, analyst at Bernstein. The most extreme case would be that of the French cognac manufacturer Rémy Cointreau, which according to the newspaper accumulates aged stocks worth 1.8 billion euros. Almost double its annual income and close to its global market capitalization. Is there more data? Yes. In recent years the percentage of mature stock over total net sales has increased clearly at Rémy, but also at Brown-Forman, Campari, Diageo and Pernord Ricard. For example, in the case of the British multinational Diageo, this ratio has clearly increased in just a few years: if in the fiscal year of 2022 it represented 34%, it is now 34%. 43%. The problem is not just the big manufacturers of Scotch whiskey, cognac and tequila. Data from the Tequila Regulatory Council show that at the end of 2023 the Mexican industry had a stock of 525 million liters of that popular distilled beverage. The figure (sum of the product in barrels or pending bottling) is almost equivalent to the country’s annual production. “Much more new liquor is distilled than is sold, and the stock begins to accumulate,” duck Bernstein. A ticking bomb. The accumulation of stock is not worrying only because of what it suggests to us about the past and current sales pace. It is especially so because of its implications for the future. With more barrels and bottles gathering dust in the warehouses of the big manufacturers there are those who already fear that a price war would break out, a pulse in the market that would aggravate the situation. For now, FT recalls that there are manufacturers who have chosen to hit the brakes in their factories. This is the case of Diageo, which has production suspended of whiskey in various factories, or from the bourbon producer Jim Bean (Suntory), which has done something similar with its main Kentucky distillery. The problem: often the aged drinks sector works for several years, so pausing its production today can compromise the supply in five years or a decade. What is the reason? To understand the current stock of the industry, it is necessary to understand several keys. For example, the fluctuations in demand in recent years and the forecasts with which manufacturers have worked. At the beginning of the pandemic, the sector registered an increase of distillate consumption in the US, which led to an increase in production. After the health crisis and with inflation as a backdrop, however, the market returned to normal. What’s more, the industry had to deal with new challenges that a priori have little to do with its business. The first is the trade war unleashed last year, a scenario in which the alcohol industry was not foreign. In fact, if Jim Bean considered suspending production at his main distillery it was precisely due to the increase in stock and the uncertainty generated by tariffs. Another key factor is that alcohol consumption (at least of certain types of alcohol) appears to be moderating as more people focus on their physical health and take weight loss medications, such as Wegovy or Ozempic. It is nothing exceptional if you take into account that in 2023 a study Walmart already warned that consumption of Ozempic was reducing food sales. The big question. Beyond these current factors, a key question for the industry hovers: Are we consuming less alcohol in general? Do we drink less than our parents and grandparents? And will the new generations on whom the sector will have to rely on in a couple of decades drink less? There is data that suggests this. The Our World in Data platform has developed a graph on per capita consumption that reflects that almost all the countries analyzed consume less alcohol than a few decades ago. It is not the only study that points in that direction. Another recent one from Gallup confirms that in the US consumption has fallen to its lowest level since at least 1930 and OECD tables They also show that many of their countries (not all) have seen how the intake of liters per person per year decreased between 2013 and 2023. There are those who already warns that the trend does not look like it will stop, fully affecting to the accounts of the distillate industry. Images | Paolo Bendandi (Unsplash), OECD and Our World in Data In Xataka | There is an age at which we should stop drinking alcohol forever. Neuroscience is clear why

There is still stock of all these bargains

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November is coming to an end and, although we already have Christmas on the horizon, we still have a few more days to take advantage of the offers of Black Friday. It is true that many bargains have disappeared from the main stores, but that does not mean that we do not still have some powerful discounts on technology. In fact, a store that still has several very attractive ones is, without a doubt, PcComponents. This store, immersed right now in its final Black Friday fireworkshas several deals that can suit us very well if we are thinking of renewing our old computer for a new one or if we want to change some of its parts in case we already have a PC assembled. There is a lot to choose from, but below we leave you some very powerful offers that are still available. MacBook Air M4 by 849 eurosa very interesting laptop for those looking for outstanding performance and Apple ecosystem. AOC Q27G4ZR Monitor by 159 eurosgaming monitor with Fast IPS panel and a refresh rate that can reach 260 Hz. AMD Ryzen 5 5500 processor by 70.90 eurosan economical CPU option with good performance. AOC CU34G4 Monitor by 229 eurosideal if you are looking for an ultrawide monitor to play. Forgeon Solum Liquid Cooling by 54.99 euroswith two powerful fans and RGB lighting. Radeon RX 9070 XT graphics card by 649.90 eurosa minimalist assembly ideal for playing at 1440p or even 4K. MacBook Air M4 If we want an Apple laptop and we are looking for something current, we will find few better options right now than this one. MacBook Air M4. This is the 13.6-inch version with 256 GB of storage, available right now for 849 euros when placing the equipment in the cart. A compact and very manageable device, but that does not give up offering a large dose of power and autonomy. Ideal for working, studying or watching multimedia content. Apple Macbook Air Apple M4 Laptop 10 Cores/16 GB/256GB SSD/GPU 8 Cores/13.6″ Silver The price could vary. We earn commission from these links AOC Q27G4ZR Monitor If we are looking for a new gaming monitor, this AOC Q27G4ZE could be a great fit for us. It is a model with 27 inches, QHD resolution and 240 Hz refresh rate, although it supports overclock to raise the rate to 260 Hz. It uses a Fast IPS panel and barely has 1 ms GtG response. It has support for HDR 400 and has speakers, which is a plus for single player games where we don’t want to use headphones. It is available for 159 euros. AOC Q27G4ZR Gaming Monitor 27″ QHD Fast IPS 240Hz Overclockable 260Hz 1ms HDR400 Speakers The price could vary. We earn commission from these links AMD Ryzen 5 5500 processor Not all users want to have the most powerful or the latest of the latest on their PC. If you are just looking for an affordable gaming device to play at 1080p without too many complications and without spending too much, this Ryzen 5 5500 may be ideal for you. It has 6 cores and 12 threads, more than enough also for simple and undemanding tasks. By 70.90 eurosa CPU with very good quality-price ratio. AMD Ryzen 5 5500 3.6GHz Box Processor The price could vary. We earn commission from these links AOC CU34G4 Monitor Another monitor option, also from AOC, although in this case significantly different from the previous one. In this case, we have a 34-inch ultrawide screen with 1500R curvature, which is ideal for gaining immersion while we play. Its resolution is WQHD (3,440 x 1,440 pixels) and it has a refresh rate of 180 Hz. It is very adjustable, so we can place it as it best fits our setup. It is at a minimum price: 229 euros. AOC Monitor CU34G4 34″ Curved WQHD 3440×1440 180Hz HDR10 Fast VA 1ms Black The price could vary. We earn commission from these links Forgeon Solum Liquid Cooling Accompanying our CPU with good liquid cooling will allow us to have sustained performance without temperatures rising excessively. This one from the Forgeon brand is ideal if we take into account that it also barely costs anything right now. 54.99 euros. It has two 120 millimeter fans and a square pump. In addition, the system has RGB lighting that will allow us to give a different touch to our tower. Forgeon Solum Liquid Cooling 240 ARGB Liquid Cooler Kit Black The price could vary. We earn commission from these links Radeon RX 9070 XT graphics card We close this selection of offers with a graphics card, this time an RX 9070 XT. This assembly, from XFX, has an arrangement of three fans and a fairly sober and minimalist appearance, ideal if we are not concerned about having lighting or flashy details on the PC. At the performance level, it is a graphics card capable of offering outstanding performance at 1440p, as well as in 4K, relying on technologies such as AMD’s FSR. comes out for 649.90 euros. XFX SWIFT AMD Radeon RX 9070 XT Triple Fan 16GB GDDR6 FSR 4 Graphics Card The price could vary. We earn commission from these links Some of the links in this article are affiliated and may provide a benefit to Xataka. In case of non-availability, offers may vary. Images | PcComponentes, Apple, AOC, AMD, XFX In Xataka | Best wireless headphones. Which one to buy and 21 models from 15 euros to 470 euros In Xataka | Best gaming keyboards. Which one to buy and 11 recommended gaming keyboards for different users and budgets

Oracle signed a 300 billion agreement with OpenAI. Two months later it has lost 315,000 million in the stock market

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Since Oracle announced its $300 billion deal with OpenAI On September 10, its shares have lost $315 billion in market capitalization, as they have stated since Financial Times. The technology company He has bet everything on a single card: Become the premier infrastructure provider for the world’s most valuable AI lab. Investors are not convinced. The most expensive bet in its history. Oracle has tied its future to OpenAI in an unprecedented way in the technology industry. According to estimates At Jefferies, 58% of its future order book comes from a single customer: OpenAI. To put it in perspective, Microsoft has just 39% concentration with its largest customer, and Amazon 16%. Oracle has gotten into a mess and its business diversification has become a critical dependency on OpenAI. The plan is ambitious but risky. Oracle’s strategy is to reach $166 billion in cloud computing revenue by 2030, according to counted the company last month. To achieve this, its investment budget in the current fiscal year ending in May amounts to $35 billion. The analysts wait that this annual expenditure will stabilize around 80,000 million in 2029. But here’s the problem: Starting in 2027, most of that revenue would come from OpenAI, according to the calculations from RBC Capital Markets. That is, Oracle is not just building massive infrastructure, it is building massive infrastructure for a single tenant that has yet to prove its long-term commercial viability. The numbers don’t add up yet. Oracle’s net debt already stands at 2.5 times its ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), more than double what it was in 2021, and is expected to almost double again by 2030. Its free cash flow is also expected to remain negative for five consecutive years, according to the forecasts collected by Bloomberg. The company is financing with debt a gigantic server farm with the hope that OpenAI will generate enough revenue to justify the investment. Meanwhile, as has shared Financial Times, investors are so restless that the cost of insuring against a potential Oracle default is at a three-year high. The contagion effect of OpenAI. Oracle is not the only company that has suffered after announcing agreements with OpenAI. Broadcom and Amazon too have seen their shares fallwhile NVIDIA has barely moved since its investment agreement in September. A few months ago, any type of association with OpenAI caused prices to rise, considering himself the King Midas of AI. The most notable case was AMD’s in Octoberwhen its shares rose 24% after announcing a chip deal that included company warrants. That halo effect seems to have completely faded. Between the lines. The initial theory was that OpenAI was in a frantic race to catch up. general artificial intelligence (AGI) and that Oracle was the only company capable of scaling the necessary computing capacity at the required speed. Oracle promised the lowest upfront costs and the fastest path to revenue generation because it acted as a data center tenant, not an owner. Now investors are sending the signal that partnering with OpenAI is no longer a guarantee of success. The alternative reality is less rosy: Oracle doesn’t have as much operating profit as its competitors to burn on R&D, so it’s betting everything to keep its only big customer in exchange for a promissory note. Amazon, Microsoft and Meta can afford to spend between 70,000 and 130,000 million a year in infrastructure. Oracle is juggling financials to keep pace. And now what. Oracle has until mid-2026 to prove that your Abilene data center in Texas, with capacity for more than 400,000 GPUs and 1.4 gigawatts of power, can generate the promised returns. Meanwhile, the market has spoken and is awaiting evidence that this partnership will bear the promised fruits. Cover image | Oracle and OpenAI In Xataka | As if there weren’t enough AI companies, Jeff Bezos has just returned from the shadows to build another one, according to the NYT

Duolingo was the fun, brave company we loved that taught us languages. Today it is sinking in the stock market

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Most people never manage to turn their ideas into business successes. Luis von Ahn (Guatemala City, 1978) has achieved it twice. The first, when he created reCAPTCHA and sold it to Google in 2009 for a small fortune. The second, years later, started from a much simpler concept. Learning languages ​​was a painso von Ahn wanted to turn that into just the opposite: something fun. This is how it was born Duolingoa company that taught how to speak languages ​​with a strong component of gamification. You already had to go to an academy or spend long periods of time in online courses: you could learn words, phrases and pronunciation through small tests when you were on the bus or waiting in a queue. Duolingo achieved the most difficult thing: making us like each other (and fall in love) Learning with Duolingo was fun and comforting. The small rewards worked and turned it almost into a video game that little by little more people became fond of. The snowball got bigger and bigger and Duolingo became one of those companies that already seemed likeable at first. It seemed that everything it did was done well, and little by little the company took important steps to become the giant it is today. The certifications arrived who wanted to rival the famous TOEFL exams, their platform for schools, and more and more languages. Some, like japanesewere a challenge. Others, like the Klingon or the high valyriumwere above all a diversion that consolidated the fun and cool image of the company. Then things started to get interesting because Duolingo wanted to not only teach us languages ​​to speak, but also programming languages. He was encouraged to want to serve as a tool so that the little ones They learned to read and write. And for the young and not so young, Duolingo wanted to become private mathematics teacherof music or even chess. All of this ensured that over the years Duolingo managed to solidify that company image that Not only did he solve real problems, but he did it in a friendly, friendly and fun way.. In 2021 the company decided go public and after a couple of relatively calm years, the shares began to rise in value significantly. Everything seemed to be going great for the company. And then everything went wrong. AI has mortally wounded Duolingo, but not because of what we think When OpenAI presented GPT-4o in June 2024, many of us saw the future. One in which you no longer typed on your computer or on your mobile screen: it was enough to talk to him. That promised to transform many segments and kill some others, and among those threatened were companies like Duolingo. At the time it wasn’t so obvious, but when we saw that kid solving a math problem With the help of AI, it was not difficult to imagine that education, as we had known it, could have an expiration date. Curiously, that didn’t seem to affect Duolingo too much. The company continued to grow, but then two things happened. First and foremost, a major blunder. Luis von Ahn advertisement in April an “AI First” vision in which I would bet on artificial intelligence as a new great tool for your growth. The message sounded like “let’s do without the human being,” and although von Ahn tried to clarify things, the damage was done. After that, the debacle. Duolingo shares began to plummet. But the thing didn’t end there. The second of those turning point events occurred in August, when GPT-5 demonstrated that one could build a custom Duolingo for, for example, learn french in a fun way. People stopped being in love with Duolingo and they began to criticize her precisely because of what had made her succeed. There was too much gamification and, as i said a user on Reddit, “for me the reward for learning a language is learning the language.” Source: Cinco Días. Stocks continued to fall almost steadily. These days Duolingo presented financial results, and the curious thing is that although they were good, they were not good enough for Wall Street. The firm reached 135 million active monthly users (50 million use it daily), 20% more than in the same period of the previous year. It also rose 34% in paying users. Although one would think those numbers were fantastic, they also warned that the forecasts for the fourth quarter were not so optimistic. Result: new stock market debacle. So much so that the shares have plummeted 64% since reaching their highs on May 1, just after the “AI First” announcement. Since then, Duolingo’s drift has been worrying, and the coming months will undoubtedly mark its future even more. The company is in a difficult moment, and the rise of AI may end up causing those experimenting with their chatbot to realize that starting to learn languages ​​​​is as easy as telling ChatGPT “I want to practice my English with you a little. Correct me when I say something else and suggest small exercises” out loud. That is the great challenge for Duolingo going forward. In Xataka | How to practice languages ​​using artificial intelligence

no other great technology is having a stock market as good as she

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Meta has just achieved something unheard of: dethrone Nvidia as the most successful technological technology of the year on the stock market. It is still far in stock market capitalization, but it grows above it in what we have been for the year. Its +22% surpasses the rest of the great technological, also Microsoft, and confirms the excellent stock market moment in recent times. Why is it important. Less than two years ago, Wall Street was punishing a goal for its obsession with the Metaversosomething that vanished at the same speed at which Chatgpt spread: the future actually passed by. Your expense in Reality labs Nor did it help. Today it is rewarding its transformation towards the practice. In detail. The change of course began in 2023, with what Zuckerberg called “The year of efficiency“ Now goal is running an AI strategy that combines the best of three worlds: Mass consumption products. Ray-Ban MetaCalls, Goal AI. Business infrastructure. Talent capture. In these last weeks we have understood the magnitude of point 3 with The signing of Openai leading researchersincluding Creators of O1 and O3. We also know that it plans to get 29,000 million dollars to invest in data centers. Between the lines. Investors have caught something that seemed unlikely: goal has made their traditional advertising income grow while in parallel builds their future in AI. Your R&D spending will reach the 65,000 million dollarsbut their margins continue to expand. Goal is demonstrating that it is possible to reinvent itself without losing the main business. Meanwhile, Google fights as can against the arrival of Chatgpt and Apple continues to look for its site in the AI ​​race. Goal has defined its identity: being the company that democratizes AI with a Llm Powerful but open source (with nuances) … … and make an incursion into Wearable that seemed innocent but is being tremendously successful. And now what. The next catalyst will be to verify how its smart glasses business evolves. And that of AI attendees. Above all, to what extent they change the business. Meta, first of all, it is demonstrating what was not taken for granted for all great technology: survival capacity in the transition to AI. And that is using recognition in the parquet. Outstanding image | Mariia Shalabaieva in Unspash In Xataka | The Xiaomi ai Glasses are much more than the finish line because they are not just a product. They are a platform

In times of fall in stock market, a luxury investment has become a “shelter”: bags

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In times of financial uncertainty, generalized falls In stock markets around the world and the dollar losing credibility as a reference currency, investors seek refuge values ​​to protect their assets. The gold It used to be the safeguard In times of crisis, but a new trend has gained strength in recent years: the Investment in luxury articlesespecially exclusive bags such as Hermès Birkin. Get out of the bag to get into the bag. The attractiveness of these high -end bags signed by Hermes, Louis Vuitton Or Chanel not only resides in its exclusivity and status, but also surprise by their profitability. While actions and gold experience ups and downs, Birkin bags have demonstrated a constant revaluation of their value in the second -hand market. During periods of financial volatilityluxury bags, and in particular Hermès Birkin, has positioned itself as an asset of investment at levels of artthe high -end watches or the Classic luxury cars. According to the report of Art Market Researchin the last two decades, luxury bags have gone from being an accessory to what is now “the only category of collecting women centered.” Scarcity marketing. This investment model is sustained thanks to something as basic as the law of supply and demand. Hermès, like most luxury brands, applies a deliberate scarcity strategy with a very limited production of their pieces in which, curiously, It is the brand who chooses What products sell to your customers. The high demand for these articles causes waiting lists among their clients that can reach six years. The perception of exclusivity increases the desire for the product, which causes automatically revalue in the second -hand market when leaving the store. This is a phenomenon quite common In markets. For example, we live it after launch of the Sony PS5when these consoles arrived with counts to stores and doubled their price in the second -hand market or, at another level, with The Purosangue Ferrari. More Birkin, less gold. The Birkin de Hermès, is considered one of the best investments in the world of luxury, even surpassing traditional assets such as art or gold in terms of profitability and stability. A 2020 study Prepared by Credit Suisse and Deloitte, he revealed that the value of the Birkin increased 38% on average that year, far exceeding the performance of the S&P 500, which grew 16.3% in the same period. A study Baghunter compared the value of Hermès’ bags with respect to the S&P 500 and gold since 1995. The results showed that the financial behavior of the Birkin was much more stable and profitable than the stock market index and the value of gold, with a less volatile market and greater interannual returns. While the S&P 500 offered an average annual return of 8.65%and gold just 1.9%, the Birkin registered an average annual increase of 14.2%. A second -hand birkin: from 9,000 to $ 200,000. As with the market of the Collection luxury watchesthe high demand for certain editions of Birkin has generated spectacular revaluation. A Birkin de Hermès costs between $ 9,000 and $ 12,000, but can reach prices of up to $ 200,000 In auctions or specialized platformsdepending on its rarity, state and materials. In 2015, a pink crocodile skin birkin was sold by a record of $ 223,000, consolidating the reputation of these bags as high performance investments. The most expensive birkin ever auctioned was a Birkin 30 Himalayas with diamonds, than It reached a price of $ 450,000 in 2014. The Chinese offensive: the true value of the Birkin. In a context of commercial warfare like the current one, the boom of the Birkin as an investment has not been exempt from controversy. After the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, Chinese influencers networks They have started a campaign To demystify the value of these bags. During the last days, Tiktok and X They have filled with videos of these Chinese influencers directing directly to the customers of these brands by analyzing the manufacturing costs in China. The message indicates the manufacturing price of a Birkin of Hermès around $ 1,400, while luxury brands sell their bags for a price up to ten times higher than its real cost, feeding the perception that there is a speculative bubble around these luxury items. In Xataka | A rare 900,000 clock has marked the end of moderation in goal: Mark Zuckerberg and his fondness for expensive watches In Xataka | Nicolas Puech: Hermès’s Swiss Millionaire who wants to leave a gardener with Spanish ties as the only heir Image | Hermes

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