semiconductors

Chip War is Xataka Xtra’s newsletter about the technological battle of our time: semiconductors

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‘Chip War’ is one of the newsletters exclusives included in Xataka Xtrathe Xataka subscription plan. We send it every Monday and it is part of a benefits plan that includes access to other newsletters, a consultation with editors and raffles and discounts exclusive for subscribers. The first draw, a 75″ TV. The semiconductor industry is not just technology. It is geopolitics, economics and industrial strategy condensed into objects of a few nanometers. The decisions made today by TSMC, Intel, ASML, Samsung or SK Hynix (or the governments that support them) will determine which countries lead the next decade and under what conditions. Every Monday we analyze what is happening in that race: the conflicts between the United States and China, the movements of large factories, the subsidies that are changing the geography of production or the technological bets that can change who is in charge in the sector. Without rush and with context. The goal is not to tell you the news, but to help you understand why it matters. Why does it matter so much? Do you want an example? In our Substack we share the first edition for free. Other Xataka Xtra newsletters Next X (biweekly, every other Thursday): analysis of the trends in technology and science that are changing the present and will define the future: AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, space exploration. Context and perspective on where we are going and why it matters. B-sides (weekly, every Saturday): five curious and fascinating readings each week. Strange, counterintuitive or unexpected stories that we find on the Internet and that deserve your attention. From industrial accidents that changed the world to surprising scientific research or absurdities of late capitalism. Featured image | Xataka

Japan was the king of semiconductors in the 80s. Rapidus is its only hope to compete in this market again

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In the 1980s, Japan did not compete in semiconductors and technology. It was devastating. In 1988, Japanese companies controlled more than half of the world semiconductor market, and NEC, Toshiba, Hitachi and Fujitsu were above giants of the time in the US such as Motorola, Texas Instruments or Intel. That golden era ended with the hyperspecialization that emerged both in South Korea and China and (especially) in Taiwan, but now Japan wants to make a splash again. what has happened. A year ago the technology industry was surprised by the birth of Rapidus Corporationa company born from the alliance of several Japanese giants (Sony, Toyota, SoftBank) with the aim of returning to Japan part of its relevance in the field of semiconductors. The initial plan was very ambitious: they wanted to jump directly to 2 nm by 2027. As we will see later, they have had to delay that forecast, but what has also changed (a lot) is the structure of the company. Japan like main investor. The Japanese government has decided to make Rapidus a centerpiece of national security, and is taking unprecedented control of the company. He will become the largest shareholder, although initially he will only exercise 10% of the voting rights to leave management in private hands. Of course: the State reserves the right to raise that participation above 50% if the company is experiencing difficulties. Total capital has skyrocketed to 420 billion yen ($2.7 billion), when in 2022 the investment did not exceed 50 million. The golden action. The Japanese executive has made use of a legal mechanism by acquiring the so-called “golden shares” with which he can exercise his veto in critical decisions such as changes in management or mergers. The objective is to shield Rapidus against foreign capital acquisitions and guarantee the sovereignty of the project. Which is exactly the same thing we are seeing around the world, of course: each country wants to have its own apples in its basket. Investors who are also clients. Financial support comes from the Japanese government, but also from some large Japanese business groups such as the aforementioned Sony and Toyota or Denso. In total, 32 companies have invested 167.6 billion yen (1.075 billion dollars) and will contribute to this commitment by also being customers of the silicon that Rapidus can produce. They remain just as ambitious… or more. Rapidus CEO Atsuyoshi Koike has adjusted the development plans for his chips, and has delayed the arrival of mass production to March 2028. That’s bad news, but not so much when we discover that the company has plans to go beyond 2nm and is preparing to be able to make 1.4nm chips and even 1 nm. Fast as gunpowder. One of the factors that want to differentiate Rapidus is its promise of rapid delivery of semiconductors. The project aims to automate both the manufacturing, packaging and testing of the chips. These last two are processes with great manual intervention, but at Rapidus they believe they have the key to making them much more autonomous. If they succeed, they could reduce the cycle time of semiconductors by 66% and thus beat even giants like TSMC by the way. Japan turns to chips. Japan’s aspiration is striking, and its Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, seems to be clear that the commitment to this segment must be notable. In fact, Japan is investing a proportion of its GDP (0.71%) in semiconductors much higher than that of the US (0.21%) or Germany (0.41%). Challenges. The strategy, of course, has its critics. Takero Doi, professor at Keio University, point “There are many cases in which public-private investment has led to systems that lacked accountability. It is important to clarify who will lead the project, the private sector or the government.” Plan B. Although the plan with Rapidus is ambitious, the country is actually playing both sides. While boosting its own business, the government has made commitments with TSMC to upgrade its manufacturing plants in Japan. This makes it have a hybrid ecosystem: it attracts the experience and knowledge of the semiconductor giant while on the other hand trying to create a national alternative. Image | Xataka with Freepik In Xataka | Panasonic was the bastion of 100% Japanese TVs after Sony’s step back. Now it has surrendered to China

Europe wants to manufacture 20% of the world’s semiconductors by 2030. It has just taken the first step

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43,000 million euros. That is the figure that the European Commission set to achieve something that is currently out of reach: technological sovereignty regarding semiconductors. With the ‘Chips Act‘, Europe seeks to position itself as a power in a semiconductor production segment dominated by Asia with Taiwan at the head. Now, and after years of dreaming, Europe inaugurates the first installation: the FAMES Pilot Line. The objective is not conservative. By 2030, the Old Continent wants produce 20% of integrated circuits of the world. We have an ace up our sleeve called ASMLthe global spearhead in terms of manufacturing of advanced photolithography equipment refers. The Dutch are the ones who produce the machines that buy foundries like TSMC o Intel to manufacture the most advanced chips on the market. But there is a problem: we have the machine that makes the chips, but we don’t have someone to make chips. That is what the project wants to change, and with FAMESthe European Union Chip Law lays the first brick to be more relevant. It’s not going to be easy at all. FAMES, the spearhead of Europe’s Chips Law Unlike a private company, FAMES is something much more European: a collaboration between countries and institutions. It represents a new example of public-private collaboration like the one we are seeing in parallel in the european space race. And the pilot program is located at the CEA-Leti facilities in the French town of Grenoble. With an initiative of 830 million euros contributed by both the European Commission and the participating states, FAMES brings together 11 organizations belonging to eight countries and, after two years of preparation, has presented favorable technical results to begin developing advanced semiconductor technologies. The organizations and countries of the FAMES Consortium FAMES, with 830 million in financing, is the first of the five pilot lines that will be inaugurated under this Chips Law initiative, and the CEA-Leti plant has been expanded with about 2,000 new square meters destined to clean room. It is an extremely clean area isolated from the outside, with strictly controlled temperature and humidity conditions and optimal conditions for manufacturing semiconductors. CEA-Leti already had 12,000 square meters of clean room, so the expansion under the Chips Law is considerable. And the big question: what will they do in this pilot program? Well, something known as Fully Depleted Silicon-on-Insulator, or FD-SOI. This is a manufacturing process in which a thin insulating layer (less than 10 nanometers) is placed under the transistors so that the chips operate at lower voltages. And the goal is to create 10 and 7 nanometer processors. FD-SOI Thus, they consume between 30 and 40% less energy without losing performance, making them more efficient. That efficiency and delivery of energy to the chips is something that everyone is trying to improve, from an Intel that already has its most cutting-edge technologies ready in this sense to a TSMC that is preparing its response by the end of 2026. That Europe is developing its solution now seems demoralizing, but it must be taken into account that, for decades, the technology of the Old Continent has depended on external manufacturing, so advancing this manufacturing process at this time is not bad news. But well, in the end, FAMES represents the first platform in which some advanced technologies for the manufacture of semiconductors will begin to mature and, together with the rest of the pilot lines, the objective is to transfer these advances and knowledge to the industry and, obviously, to a final product. We will see if the 2030 goal is reached, but Europe itself is not very optimistic about the matter. Europe thinks that Europe will fail in its objective At the beginning of last year, we already said that the European Court of Auditors itself believed that the European Chip Law would be a failurepointing out unlikely which would be if they achieved the goal of building 20% ​​of the planet’s semiconductors by 2030. And… they are not misguided. Europe is seeking its technological independence while inviting entities like TSMC to its soil, but the two main technological centers are also moving. The United States is attracting talent to its territory, with TSMC buying more land to open a megafactory and Intel as a banner in the American foundry. China is not standing idly by and, following a Western veto, its semiconductor industry has made unthinkable advances with old ASML machines while companies like SMIC either Huawei develop your own solutions to create advanced chips and be able to shield itself from American technology. And beyond countries, private companies such as Intel itself, TSMC, Samsung, GlobalFoundries or Texas Instruments are also moving, installing new cutting-edge plants both inside and outside the United States, a country that is determined to invest what is necessary to achieve leadership. In the end, getting 20% ​​of the world’s chips is a tremendously ambitious goal and Europe is very far away in this industrybut you have to start somewhere and FAMES represents that first stone on the path of the European semiconductor initiative. Images | Intel (edited), FAMES In Xataka | We already know what the chips that will arrive until 2039 will be like. The machine that will allow them to be manufactured is close

ASML and TSMC are masters of semiconductors. A US startup believes it knows how to end them: with X-rays

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A mysterious American startup called Substrate has made its appearance with a purpose extraordinarily ambitious: compete head to head with ASML. The Dutch company has become the master of the segment of advanced photolithography machines for chip manufacturing, but at Substrate they believe they have the key to turn the tables. Why is it important. ASML has no competition in the market since it placed its first equipment of UVE photolithography. The ASML thing is a monopoly de facto: If a chip manufacturer or designer wants to access to produce the most advanced models, it depends entirely on the Dutch company. No one has managed to stop it since then, and even China, which is trying to free itself from that dependence, it’s really complicated. Substrate. This is the name of this startup that has developed a new team in which use particle acceleration to manage lithography. This technology allows microscopic circuits to be etched onto silicon wafers, and this new company claims that its machines could be in manufacturing plants in the US within the next two years. It all sounds very good. Maybe too much, but they already have funds to try: they have just raised 100 million dollars and among investors There is Peter Thielco-founder of PayPal and current CEO of Palantir. And already, they will try to help create the new TSMC. The challenge is enormous: ASML has invested decades and billions of dollars to perfect its photolithographic equipment, and the complexity of this market makes it very difficult for companies created from scratch to compete. Substrate’s objective is twofold, because it also aims to ensure that its machines enable the affordable chip manufacturing in the US. Or what is the same: it not only wants to compete directly with ASML, but also allow American manufacturers to compete with TSMC on American soil. There it is nothing. Light is everything. When creating those circuits, some of the lines created are so fine that their dimensions are even thinner than the wavelength of light. To solve that ASML problem they do use of extreme ultraviolet light (EUV) through a very complex set of lenses and mirrors. These machines generate a type of artificial light that is capable of engraving those very fine lines on advanced chips. Very special X-rays. In Substrate they propose a different idea. Although they do not give all the details to prevent someone from copying them, their machines use X-ray lithography (LRX). A particle accelerator creates a light source from x-rays with a shorter wavelength, allowing the beam to be used to create advanced chips. Current Substrate machines are currently capable of working with 12 nanometer nodes, comparable to ASML High NA EUV machines: That would put them on par with the most advanced chip production lines in the world. LRX technology is not new. This technique has existed since the 1970s, but had been abandoned because longer wave techniques (UVP and UVE) continued to scale without the need to overcome the great technical challenges of RXL. In substrate they seem to have precisely the solution to those problems, which focused on optics and the need to use massive particle accelerators as a light source. And they promise brutal cost savings. At Substrate they maintain that their LRX equipment will have an estimated cost of about 40 million dollars, compared to 400 million for ASML’s High-NA EUV. In addition, there would be another associated revolution: the possibility of carrying out the so-called single exposure patterning at advanced resolutions (2 nm, 1 nm and beyond), thus eliminating the additional costs of the multipatterning (multiple exposures). If that promise is fulfilled, the production cost of advanced wafers would be 50% lower according to Substrate. But. Of course, it’s one thing to say it and another to do it. The precision of the process, they explain in Semianalysisis a monumental obstacle. The transfer of patterns (going “from light to silicon” almost “carving it”) remains problematic, and among the challenges is solving the roughness of the edges of the printed patterns, which is amplified during engraving. There is also the problem of stochastic noise (shot noise, random fluctuations in photons that cause defects) and secondary electron blurring inherent to the high energy of X-rays, which fundamentally limits resolution. There are also currently problems with the 1.6 nm overlay, which is still high for more advanced processes where 1.0 or 1.2 nm are sought. In Xataka | AMD is today a semiconductor giant. In its beginnings it was something much more humble: a blatant copy of Intel

The semiconductors will shoot the price

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PWC has published in its report ‘Global semiconductor industry outlook 2026‘A projection: completely autonomous vehicles (level 5) will need five times more semiconductors than a traditional car. And its cost will multiply by ten. A current basic car (level 0) carries between 200 and 300 chips valued at about $ 500. They serve mainly for engine control, safety and infotainment systems. Nothing especially sophisticated. Why is it important. The semiconductor content of a car will multiply by ten when we reach full autonomy. From the current 500 dollars to more than $ 5,000 per vehicle. This jump will change the cost structure of the car industry and create a gigantic market for chips manufacturers. The climbing. Each level of autonomy shoot the needs: Level 1 and 2: driver assistance and automatic distance maintenance. The cost rises to about 800 dollars in chips. Level 3: Autonomous driving on highways without constant supervision. More than 1,000 semiconductors and about $ 2,000. Level 4: Autonomous operation in the city, limited to specific areas. The cost reaches $ 3,200. Level 5: Total autonomy in any climatic and traffic condition. More than $ 5,000 per vehicle. The context. The explosion in semiconductor content responds to the fact that autonomous vehicles must process large volumes of real -time data, and that translates into computing capacity, and more information collected from the environment. A level 3 car already needs more than 1,000 semiconductors to capture information around it, high performance computer chips (HPC) to process it, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and electronic control units to maneuver the vehicle. The most advanced designs will add chips for vehicle-a-all communication (V2X), exchanging data with the road and other cars. Meanwhile, the transition to the electric car continues to increase the demand for power semiconductors for investors and battery management. In detail. The architecture of an autonomous car is divided into technological layers, each with its own semiconductors: Sensors: radars, lidar sensors, cameras and ultrasound that capture the environment. Each type requires specialized chips to process its signal. Computing: High performance CPUS and GPUS that execute AI algorithms to interpret data and make decisions. Electrification: semiconductors of silicon carbide (sic) and of Gallium Nitruro (Gan) to manage electric power with greater efficiency. Connectivity: Chips for 5G communication, V2X and remote updates. Control: electronic units that translate decisions into mechanical actions. Image: Freepik, Xataka. Turning point. Level 4 vehicles will start commercially climbing around 2030, mainly in Robotaxis services In delimited urban areas or transportation hub-to-hub of goods. Level 5, capable of operating without a steering wheel in any condition, will arrive much later, perhaps even in the next decade but something later. This calendar gives time to the semiconductor industry to prepare, but also points out that the great ball is still seen. Yes, but. This projection assumes mass production and that technology will fulfill its safety promises. Nothing guaranteed. Technical difficulties, regulatory frameworks and social acceptance can slow down the deployment. Between the lines. Tesla, General Motors and Ford already design their own chips for central computers and ADAS systems. They seek control over critical technology and differentiation. Traditional semiconductor manufacturers (Infineon, NXP, STMICROELECTRONICS) will share market with these new competitors. In Xataka | I have tried a totally autonomous taxi. This is traveling without driver Outstanding image | GibblesMash Asdf

China has found the formula to avoid reciprocal tariffs with the US: “dropshipping” of semiconductors

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After one tense climbing in the commercial war between China and the United Stateslast April China announced that it matched Washington imposing 125% tariffs to imports of American products, which of course includes semiconductors. Made the law, made the trap. China has the key to preventing their own tariffs from harming them. The country of origin. It is the key point to prevent their own tariffs from harming them. On April 11, the Chinese Semiconductor Industry Association (CSIA) He published a notice in which the rules to determine the country of origin of semiconductor products were established. According to its norms, the country of origin is determined by the plant in which the wafer has been manufactured and not the country in which they have been designed or where the final packaging has been made. Thus they avoid known as effect Boomerang. The effect Boomerang. It occurs when a tariff designed to punish another country, in this case the United States, ends up harming the economy of the country that imposes it. In response to tariffs imposed by Trump, China matched tariffs at 125%. Although this measure can harm US companies who want to sell their products in China, in the semiconductor sector it is especially delicate since the American chip dependence harms many Chinese companies. Changing the “passport”. This is how some companies manage to escape the Chinese tariff; When importing an AMD chip, an American company, it is not considered an American product but Taiwanés, because it has been manufactured in Taiwan. It is not usual. In fact, for some market analysts It was a surprise Since the country of origin is usually associated with where the product is packaged, not where the factory is located. Why is it important. China is demonstrating that the origin of a product or its “nationality” is not something written in stone, but is something much more fluid and is open to interpretations. This not only affects chips, applies to the entire world supply chain. In July the White House issued a Executive order which established a penalty of 40% for products whose origin has been modified (transsshipping) to avoid tariffs. With this order, the United States is taking measures for the products that arrive, but not for those who come out, although it is very likely that they adapt the legislation in the future. A calculated movement. The movement reminds of the Dropshippingin the sense that the mark of the physical origin is separated from the product, although the objective is different. According to Michael Schulmanresponsible for investments in Running Point Capital, it is “a calculated movement to maintain economic stability and promote foreign investment in local manufacturing.” The affected companies. AMD, Qualcomm or Nvidia outsourcing the manufacture of some of their chips to the TSMC plant in Taiwanso they can dodge the tariff that China imposed as retaliation. On the other hand, others such as Texas Instruments or Intel cannot dodge it because they have their Factories in the United States. Image | Gary Lerude, Stas Knop In Xataka | An industry in the hands of TSMC and Asian factories: the world production map

The plan to manufacture the purest semiconductors in the world is to go to space

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While the United States and China tense their relationships with Taiwan chips factories in the center of the dispute, a Welsh Startup has been getting allies To manufacture semiconductors in orbit. The objective: to achieve an impossible quality to replicate on Earth. Context. The geopolitics of semiconductors is possibly one of the largest headaches for world powers. Europe imports 80% of the chips you need, and 90% of the most advanced It comes from Taiwan. An climb of tension in the region could have catastrophic consequences. Therefore, the search for a resilient supply chain is a strategic priority. The solution, paradoxically, may not be on earth. This is where it enters Space Forgean Aerospace Company based in Cardiff that is developing reusable satellites to manufacture semiconductors and other advanced materials in orbit. Manufacture chips in space. Why go so far for something so small? The answer is in physics. Vacuum and microgravity They are ideal conditions for the development of ultrapurus crystalsthe base of any semiconductor. On earth, gravity introduces tiny imperfections and defects in the crystalline structure of the materials during their formation. NASA He has been studying for decades The advantages of manufacturing in space. Gravity causes phenomena such as convection and sedimentation of molten materials, which prevents a homogeneous distribution of components and generates defects. In space, these problems disappear. Materials are formed more perfectly, which translates into higher quality chips, more efficient and lower energy consumption. The first satellite. Space Force believes that glass “seeds” can occur in space 10 times pure That anyone found on Earth, which would result in semiconductors with a hundredth of the defects. Less defects implies less waste, greater performance and, ultimately, more powerful and efficient devices. But how much of promise and what about reality? The company has already put its first manufacturing satellite, the Forgestar-1. Successfully released in June 2025 On board a spacex rocket, this satellite, developed entirely in Wales, is the first British spacecraft sent to space with the purpose of producing new materials. It is a first demonstration mission: it will prove that the appropriate environment for space can be created and some production techniques will validate. NATO is knocking on the door. Space Forge got 30 million dollars In its first financing round, the largest series for a space technology in the United Kingdom. The most significant is Who leads The investment: NIF, the NATO Innovation Fund. The NIF highlighted “the independence of the long -term supply and resilience” chain as one of the reasons to invest in the startup. This capital injection will accelerate the development of the Forgestar-2, the next generation of its returnable manufacturing satellite. Microgravity as a service. The potential of microgravity manufacturing goes beyond semiconductors. Metal alloys can be impossible to mix on the earth or new compound materials. The pharmaceutical industry could also benefit greatly, with improvements in the useful life of medicines and administration methods. Space Forge aspires to a business model of “microgravadad-asservice“, an idea that somehow remembers the Arm licenses model. Instead of selling chips, it will rent spaces in its” orbital factories “so that others produce their own materials. In Xataka | Manufacturing materials for space is fine. Manufacturing materials in space is much better because everything changes

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