ghost

Russia’s ghost fleet

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Something does not fit. The useful life of a superpetrolero is usually about 20 years old. After that time, the fatigue of the helmet and maintenance costs make their most logical destiny a scrapping. The largest place in the world for this work is Alang Beach, in India. However, since 2022, the number of oil tankers sent to the scrapping is in historical minimums. Where are those ships. They have not evaporated. According to a Bloomberg reportThey continue to sail, many of them beyond their “expiration date”, turned into zombies of the seas. The question is why. And the answer, as in so many other recent geopolitical issues, is found in the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the creation of A gigantic ghost float to move the sanctioned oil of Russia. The Russian ghost fleet. After the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Western powers, with the G7 at the head, They imposed a cap of $ 60 per barrel to Russian oil transported by sea. The idea was simple: drowning the income with which the Kremlin financed the war without causing a collapse of the energy market. To work, western shipping companies and insurers (who dominate the market) could not serve cargoes that exceed that price. Moscow’s response was a pentadimensional chess play: to build from scratch a FLOOT Ghost Buying hundreds of old oil tankers, on the verge of retirement, through a network of owners impossible to track. According to analysts, this parallel army already has between 600 and 1,400 ships, a naval force dedicated to transporting Russian oil throughout the world, skipping the sanctions. How an oil tanker hides. With the same tricks that were already using other sanctioned states, such as Iran or Venezuela. Turning off the AIS system transpondor, which emits its identity and position. And transferring oil from one ship to another to bleach it, as exposed This satellite image. But also registering it in countries with lax regulations or little supervision capacity, such as Gabon, Liberia or the Marshall Islands and hiring unknown insurers or even operating the ship without reliable insurance. This is how Russia has managed to maintain its exports of crude at very high levels, mainly towards China and India . The problem of the scrapping. Faced with this situation, in Alang, the huge scarter shipyards entered into recession. The ships that should arrive to be converted into scrap metal have remained activeserving the cause of Kremlin. Now, the situation is beginning to change, but in a way that generates a new geopolitical problem. The oldest and most unsustainable ships of the ghost fleet They are also starting to arrive at Alang For dismantling. For local workers, it is an economic relief. For geopolitics, a mines field. On the one hand, withdrawing these ships is a victory for maritime security and the environment. On the other, it is rewarding the sanctioned entities. For Alang’s unscathers, the incentive is purely economic: they can buy an oil tanker sanctioned with a discount of up to 40% on its market value as scrap. In Xataka | Russia is using Ceuta to avoid sanctions: the problem for Spain is that it is totally legal

In León there are small villages that are finding a peculiar phenomenon: thousands of “ghost tourists”

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In the world there is good and bad touristsrespectful tourists and disrespectfulclean and others capable of converting places such as Everest either The Fuji In authentic stercolera, but much less common is what some peoples of the province of León are living. His municipalities are finding a kind of “Ghost Tourism”a drip of thousands and thousands of travelers that nobody has seen or heard or housed, but that in theory they have visited the town. Or at least he assures it A study of the INE. Multiplying the census by 24. Carbajal sources It is a town of León located about 50 minutes by car from the provincial capital and surrounded by hectares and hectares of cultivation. It doesn’t usually sneak into the news, but Monday León News He dedicated him A broad article which explains a peculiarity of the people: in summer there are few municipalities in which the population shoots more for tourism. According to A study INE experimental that measures the flow of tourists from the position of mobile phones, between July and August 2024 the town received 1,826 tourists. Many do not seem like many, but it is that INE himself acknowledges that in the Leonese town there are barely registered 76 people. That is, when the heat arrives, the summers multiply by 24 the municipal census. Next to nothing. “It’s a mockery”. Such data would be compressible if Carbajal sources had a natural park, an old fortress, parties known throughout the community or some other claim that explains that avalanche of visitors, but the City Council itself itself Recognize that this figure of 1,826 tourists (464 in July and 1,180 in August) is difficult to explain … and even more difficult to assume. “It is a burial,” nods The mayor of the town, Carlos de León Saluds, in León News. Similar opinion, Ana María Ortega, former mayor and councilor, Explain That one thing is that the influx of visitors increases in July and August for the people who returns to the village or visit to their relatives and a very different one that the data is triggered in an exorbitant way. “In summer you can triple the population, but multiply by 24 the number of inhabitants with veraners and tourists cannot be.” So … what happens? To understand that mysterious “Ghost Tourism” the first thing is to go to the prine sources. The data of the 1,826 tourists leaves a new “Experimental Statistics” of the INE that resorts to the signals of the mobiles to calculate different metrics related to tourism: the place of origin of foreigners arriving in Spain, the destinations that visit the Spaniards when they leave the country and the movement between communities, provinces and municipalities. The study has been prepared for a few years and always talks about the same: “Tourists.” If we consult the “internal tourism” data and more specifically the flows of “Interprovincial tourists” Residents in Spain, classifying the results by municipalities, the surprise arrives: in July of last year Fuentes de Carbajal received 646 and in August 1,180. In total 1,826. The question is therefore … how are those figures calculated that collide the mayor and the former mayor of the people? Mobile and antennas matter? The response is given by INE in The technical file From the survey: the data is related to the position of mobile phones and are obtained thanks to the collaboration of the country’s large operators. The approach is interesting and promising, but implies certain challenges. “The location of mobile phones is estimated from mobile phone antennas”, collects the institute itself: “This implies that the location of a mobile is not established with total precision, and the error depends on the concentration of antennas.” In summary, the more mobile antennas, the greater precision. Unraveling the mystery. The INE’s ability to analyze the data is also limited. The records on mobile location are anonymous and processed each operator, so the institute receives only aggregate data and in tables, without option to examine loose values. In rural areas it is also found that the low density of the network conditions the type of ‘cells’ with which it operates. By statistical secret, the institute also hides certain data. With that information about the Ortega table Slide that the balance of carbajal sources (which is so adjusted to what is perceived in the people itself) may be due to technical issues, such as coverage or that for some reason the data of other municipalities are added to those of the Leonesa Villa, thus blurring the real photo. Near Fuentes de Carbajal there are other villas with a balance of zero visitors. In Xataka we have already addressed the INE to ask him about that apparent mismatch. Is it the only case? No. León News Informs other equally striking, although none reaches the level of carbajal sources. In San Millán de los Caballeros, for example, the INE registered 1,648 tourists in July and in August 1,602, which adds 3,250. Again they may not seem like many, but it is that the town has 191 inhabitants registered. The same occurs in Izagre, of 137 residents and who according to the statistical institute receives almost 2,000 Veranians. “We don’t have great parties, just four performances during the summer,” remember the mayor of San Millán. “There are two campsites close to the people, but they are in the municipal terms of Valencia de D Juan and Villamañán.” Nor does the Izagre councilor achieve to understand everything that happens: “On central summer days, with the holidays, between 150 and 200 people can be reached in each of the villages, but reaching the 1,987 veraneantes in those two months cannot be.” Images | Zed Mendez (UNSPLASH)Google Maps and Wikipedia Via | León News In Xataka | It is increasingly easy to see from the road a crop that had never been dominant in Spain: the pistachio

Tariffs are ballasting imports from China to EUU and stir a ghost: empty shelves

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Things do not go as planned in the port of Los Angeles, one of The great terminals of US containers trafficking. Its responsible expected the arrival of 80 ships throughout May, but 20%have been canceled, according to He explained this week to the CNN Gene Seroka chain, its executive director. And it is not the only drop in activity that has suffered. “This week we have dropped about 35% compared to the same period last year,” he adds. The collapse really has little mysterious. It comes after him Tariff pulse Between Washington and Beijing and the application of tariffs to many other countries. Of what Start to speak Now in the US it is What will come After that drop in imports and, most importantly, if it will translate into price increases and empty shelves. More tariffs, less reservations. The sector looked to come. The commercial war initiated by Trump and its tariff climbing with Beijing It soon perceived In port operators and shipping companies, especially in those that operate the Transatlantic routesbetween the US and Asia. In April the CEO of Flexport He warned that maritime container reserves from China to the US had collapsed 60% during the three weeks following the entry into force of new fees. And in the ports of southern California (keys in commerce with China) the traffic of cargueros of the Asian giant deflated 29% between the end of April and early May. That was the prelude. The big question was … What would come later? A percentage: 50%. After several weeks and without an agreement between Washington and Beijing that allows the 145% tariff To Chinese exports, a “puncture” in the flow of goods are already found at the US docks. A good part of the ships that arrive on the other side of the Pacific (the first after the climb of the tariffs) do so half empty. It recognizes it for example the executive director of the port of Los Angeles, who Talk about a fall In China imports aboard ships of more than 50%. “And these ships are the first to be affected by the tariffs that were imposed on China and other places last month,” Remember Seroka. “That is why the load volume is so low.” There are importers who have directly canceled orders because US companies are not willing to take care of tariffs and retailers who have chosen to maintain merchandise in Chinese warehouses. The most predictive. The fear of the trade war in fact led not a few companies to advance their imports to avoid tariffs, which explains that the US trade deficit increased 14% in March until it is located in 140.5 billion dollars. In April, container imports also grew (9.1%) for the same reason, but ports of the ports They already warn That this trend, driven by haste to buy before the entry into force of the rates, will disappear in May. In the port of Los Angeles, the great entrance door of Chinese products to the USA, They waited this week That the import load was 35% lower than last year and it is already noted that May maritime traffic can fall by 20%. The reason: ship operators cancel their trips because there is no demand. The National Federation of Retailers in fact provides that imports to the US At least 20% Interannual in the second half of the year, a percentage that for JP Morgan could rise to 75 or 80% if we talk specifically about the merchandise of China. And what will that mean? That is the big question. That tariffs affect load traffic is not relevant only for shipping companies and port directors. After all, they are only intermediaries. “A 60% decrease in containers means 60% less products arrival,” Remember Ryan PetersenExecutive Director of Flexport in the CNN chain. “It’s just a matter of time that the existing stock is exhausted, and then we will see shortage. And it will be when price increases are noticed.” In his opinion, if the trend continues and inventories are exhausted in summer, “empty shelves” in stores could be seen. Supply chain earrings. Petersen is not the only one who shares that concern. At the end of April, just before Trump went down the tone with the Federal Reserve and soften its position with respect to China, Axios revealed That the executive directors of Walmart, Target and Home Depot, three chains with large glue in the US, launched a warning to Trump: over time prices will rise and can reach a scenario of empty shelves. In fact the CNBC It already prevents that the fall of orders to China and the collapse of the reserves on load ships is approaching the supply chain to its critical point. It is not a minor issue. In 2024 US imported merchandise from China for a value of 438.9 billion of dollars and there are sectors in which their weight is fundamental: last year about 37% of clothing and footwear that reached the US market from other countries was “Made in China.” Images | Barrett Ward (UNSPLASH) In Xataka | While the US is obsessed with tariffs, China has a weapon that is going unnoticed: the bureaucracy

Spain has received more rain than ever this spring. And yet it is unable to get rid of the ghost of the drought

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Europe is not having a good time right now. Many weeks of warmer temperatures and rainfall in historical minimums, they are helping drought tentacles expand A wide strip that goes from the British islands to Crimea and the Anatolia. This is made clear by Copernicus’s latest report, the European land observation system. And yet, none of that has affected Spain. On the contrary, we have had months of unusual rains and whole weeks of temperatures below the average. The problem? In spite of everything, the vast majority of points in “alert” by drought They are on the peninsula. A ghost that comes to stay. If drought is a ghost (as we usually say, a little impossible, journalists), the southeast of the country is a delighted house. An Indian cemetery. With the exception of the coast of Malaga and Granada and the Catalan basins, the long Spanish Mediterranean arch is full of red dots (alert) and oranges (of concern for drought). But also of blue areas, of course. According to the report ‘Droough in EuropeApril 2025, the Tagus, Guadiana and Andalusian Mediterranean basins are the only ones in the entire continent that have had a positive rain anomaly. And there are the problem and the paradox. After all, this spring has become a perfect example to understand the problems that the country is going through: the problems to manage the hydrological reserves of the system in an integral way. Some problems that create distrust at all levels. Because, a few weeks ago, it was announced that the government changed the Tajo-Segura transfer game rules; But no special emphasis has been placed on the dirty war between both basins. In fact, no one is happy: while the Tagus Chair “See the proposal insufficient“Of the government, the Murcian irrigators They prepare mobilizations. All this while the Hydrological Confederation of the Safe It is immersed in controversies on manipulated data and lack of control. In what situation does all this leave us? As we commented a few weeks ago“After the rains of March and with the reservoirs of Half Spain to overflow” another battle began, who stays that water. It will not be an easy battle because, how has it been happening for 30 yearsIn the end we lose all. Image | Copernicus In Xataka | After the rains of March and with the reservoirs of Media Spain to overflow, another battle begins: who stays that water

The ghost of drought

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A few days ago we talked about how a corridor had opened between the Azores anticyclone and Iceland depression. Moreover, we argued how Spain had many options for become the great beneficiary of that trough. Well, we sin of optimists. Just look at heaven to realize that this is never to end. What happened? In the next few days, there are two structures that walk the time of the peninsula. On the one hand, a cold front has been slowly moving through the west of the Iberian Peninsula. On the other, a Dana has traveled the south coast from the Gulf of Cádiz to the heart of Algeria. As the meteorologist Ángel Rivera explainedwhat we see is the result of the closure of that wide historical trough. And it will happen again. Right now, there is an “extensive cold storm” in the Atlantic corridorbut it doesn’t seem to affect us. Because just southwest of this, a dorsal begins to gain strength and will end up moving towards Europe. And all that without counting the anticyclonic wall that is beginning to develop between the Canary Islands and the mouth of the Cantabrian; and that, as a direct consequence, it will generate a Dana that will cross the Gulf of Cádiz and (as far as we can predict) will also go to North Africa. That is, again and again, the chances of rain arriving in Spain are frustrated. What he said: the never ending story. What time will it do? Aemet’s forecast is very clear. From Monday to Wednesday, the most important thing will happen in the Canary Islands: with very strong wind gusts and notices. Galicia can also suffer some timing, but the rest of the peninsula will only see some occasional showers. On Thursday it will be a sunny day and during the weekend we will see how that front of which we have spoken will sweep the peninsula leaving some rain. On Sunday the sun will return. In general, temperatures will be more of spring. And that is the problem. We already carry two warm winters (No cold waves or intense cold episodes) And the rain is being as erratic as usual. That places us in a complex situation: before we realize, the drought will be knocking on our door. The best example is The Sau reservoir, in Barcelona: A swamp that “despite the latest rains (…) shows a lousy state, with just 8% of its water flow.” It is a notice to navigators: the Ter-Llobregat system, the Segura basin or the Andalusian Mediterranean basins They are already having a bad time. The good weather is, deep down, a conviction. Spring for today, but thirst for tomorrow. Image | ECMWF In Xataka | We have spent centuries talking about vampires, but 500 years ago a newspaper of Transylvania warned of the real danger to the planet

If it seemed to us that time was driving crazy, we now have a new phenomenon: “The ghost girl”

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We have spent months Waiting for the arrival of the girl. Countries, agencies and universities have dedicated hours and hours to try to find out how to prepare for what was coming and the truth is that there was not necessary to prepare too much: the girl is being very weak and moderate. Good show of this is that, despite being the great refrigerator of the world, January has been the warmest January of registration. Is it strange? It is not unheard of, of course; But it is not normal. In fact, the NOA “He has expressed his surprise Seeing a strong atmospheric component of the girl without the corresponding colder surface temperature than the average of the tropical Pacific. “ We could say that the phenomenon has been playing with us for weeks. It is as if it were, but without being completely. What will happen to the girl? As Martín León explains“The average of the dynamic IRI model and several models of the Multi-Model set of North America predict an earlier transition to enso-neutral in January-March of 2025”. A priori, the most likely scan is this, but “There is a 41% probability that Emerge Emerge Emerge in this season.” This means that, in aggregate terms, it is expected that “the girls of the girl persist in the short term, with a probable transition to enso-neutral during March-May of 2025 (66% probability).” And then? The international climate community is nervous because we must not forget that the 2023-2024 child was The fifth strongest Since we have records and the fact that the girl is so soft raises many doubts: is it that the Enso is moving towards a structure much warmer What is accustomed to us? It is not clear and is more than a fear than a prediction. But it is clear that what are good news (Few impacts due to a weak girl) It is becoming a source of uncertainty. No one knows if we will end the year in another the child, but the possibility is on the table. Image | NOAA In Xataka | The boy has not yet left and meteorologists are already preparing for the girl: thus influences our climate

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