energy

If the energy and technological future passes through “Electrostates”, there is one that has been living there for years: China

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As the world panics over the lack of fossil fuels, the numbers in the Chinese renewable sector they are vertigo. Shares in battery giant CATL have soared 29.5% on the Hong Kong stock exchange since the conflict began. For its part, electric vehicle leader BYD has seen its sales abroad skyrocket by 65% ​​year-on-year in the month of March. This wave of buying is not new, but it has accelerated dramatically: last year, Chinese exports of solar panels to Africa increased by 48%, sales of electric vehicles rose by 27%, and sales of wind turbines grew by almost 50%. Survival and a career already over. The global turn to renewables at this critical moment is not driven solely by climate promises, but by a need for “energy security”. Fuel shortages in Asia have led vulnerable countries to take drastic measures: Indonesia’s president has announced the construction of 100 gigawatts of solar power over the next two years, while the Philippines is offering state loans of up to $8,300 to install home solar panels. As an analysis by my colleague Javier Lacort points outthe West has been promising alternatives for years, but China “is not winning the battery race; it has already won it,” controlling more than 80% of global manufacturing. Companies like CATL and BYD have already announced or built 68 factories outside China, investing more money abroad than in their own country. The rise of the “Electrostates.” The global landscape is being redefined. We are witnessing a contest between the traditional “Petrostates”, led by the United States, and the new “Electrostates”, anchored by China, which supplies more than 70% of all the green hardware in the world. Excluded from the United States and Europe by protectionist measures, the Chinese solar industry has found its salvation in the Global South. Last year, Chinese manufacturers shipped 18.8 gigawatts of solar panels to Africa. Diplomatically and economically, the war will cement China’s superpower status. The disconnection of Middle East crude oil could even erode the dominance of the “petrodollar” and catalyze the beginnings of the “petroyuan”as countries like Iran negotiate the passage of ships in exchange for payments in Chinese currency. Side B. Despite this overwhelming dominance, Beijing’s path has significant obstacles. In Africa, although cheap technology is welcome, alarm voices are growing about the creation of a new “dependency syndrome.” Some experts lament that while African countries see China as a savior, Beijing considers them a “dump” to get rid of its industrial overcapacity. In the West, mistrust is even greater for reasons of national security. The UK recently vetoed Chinese manufacturer Ming Yang’s plans to build a wind turbine factory in Scotland, alleging risks of espionage or sabotage in critical infrastructure. At the same time, Donald Trump’s US administration has decided from the beginning to withdraw fiscal support for green energy and prioritize fossil fuels so as not to depend on supply chains controlled by foreign adversaries. China is not invulnerable either.. Despite its renewable leadership, the country still imports 78% of oil that it consumes, and the Persian Gulf supplies almost half of those imports. The rise in the barrel is causing havoc due to cost inflation in its vital steel, aluminum and petrochemical factories, reducing its competitive margins. A geopolitical choice. Precisely because this dependence on fossil fuels punishes everyone equally, the green transition has become a race of pure economic survival to shield national economies. The crisis triggered by the war in Iran shows that resilience is today the main driver of global change. As Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency points outclean energies will accelerate not only because of emissions, but because they are a “national energy source.” However, adopting this technology means choosing which side of the scale you want to be on. The energy transition is no longer a simple choice between fossil or renewable fuels. Today, the degree to which a country decides (or not) to rely on China will define its ability to decarbonize, making an environmental debate the most defining geopolitical decision of the next decade. Image | Unsplash Xataka | The country that controls the electric batteries of electric cars will control the future. And we already have a winner

resurrect the energy tax

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The war escalation produced by the Third Gulf War has caused a crisis in the price of energy that inevitably evokes the ghosts of what was experienced after the Russian invasion of Ukraine four years ago. Faced with this scenario, five heavyweights of the European Union have decided to step forward to prevent history from hitting them again. In short. On April 3, the economy ministers of Spain, Germany, Italy, Austria and Portugal sent a formal letter to the European Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra. The request, advanced on social networks by the Spanish vice president Carlos Body, is direct: they demand exploring “an instrument of temporary solidarity so that energy companies contribute with the extraordinary profits obtained during the war.” A double reading. The movement of this block of five countries is understood from two positions: economic and political. On the one hand, they seek to protect the citizen’s pocket and public coffers. to alleviate the cost of the crisis and curb inflation falls on business margins and not exclusively on “consumers (…) without overloading public budgets,” as the original letter states. On the other hand, from a political focus, the letter seek to send a message of unity. The measure would demonstrate to citizens that Europe is “united” and capable of “acting.” Furthermore, he sends a serious warning to the market: “those who benefit from the consequences of war must do their bit to alleviate the burden that falls on the population.” The mirror of 2022. To speed up procedures and avoid legal labyrinths, the five ministers propose using a formula that has already proven effective. The proposal is based in resurrecting Regulation (EU) 2022/1854the same emergency tool that was activated in the Ukrainian crisis. The signatories maintain that this precedent provides the tax with the “solid legal basis” that is necessary to act immediately before the current market volatility. However, as might be expected, it will not be an exact copy. There is a technical nuance to take into account: Spain and its allies have asked the Commission to study “if and how” the profits that these oil multinationals obtain abroad can also be taxed. This would allow for more targeted and effective taxation on surpluses generated globally. Despite the intentions, the fine print still needs to be outlined. The text sent to Brussels is still a declaration of intentions that “does not offer details on what percentage should be applied to extraordinary profits or on which companies said tax would fall.” While Europe decides, Spain assumes the bill. In parallel to this European debate, the Spanish Executive has already deployed a shock package that reduces VAT on fuel from 21% to 10% and reduces the special tax on hydrocarbons. The results are tangible: the price of gasoline has dropped to 1,557 euros per liter and the March CPI has been cushioned to 3.3%. However, the bill for this “relief” at the pumps costs the State coffers 5,000 million euros. Precisely, the budgetary pressure that the new European tax seeks to alleviate. The ball, on Brus’ roofandthe. The letter is already on the table of the European Commission. The main demand of those responsible for the economy of Spain, Germany, Italy, Austria and Portugal is that this measure be addressed “as quickly as possible.” Now the diplomatic and technical countdown begins. The barrel of crude oil maintains its upward trend due to instability in global supply routes, which is why technical services in Brussels are expected to evaluate the legal basis of this possible instrument in the coming weeks. Europe faces the challenge of demonstrating whether its fiscal reflexes remain as sharp as in 2022. Image | Unsplash Xataka | The tyranny of 24/7: how the insatiable hunger of algorithms suffocated the power grids of the 20th century

We were going to turn trash into clean energy. Now the biogas sector faces its biggest challenge: convincing neighbors

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Spain may be emerging as great power in solar and wind energybut there are other green energies that choke him. The Spanish state is not having a nose for biogas. Or rather: it doesn’t smell good, in the most literal sense of the word. However, the sector has practically gone from zero to one hundred in record time: in just two years there are more than 200 biogas projects on the table in different processing phases. And they bring with them a problem: biogas is the green energy that no one wants close to home. The problem: energy transition vs. social rejection. In the roadmap for Spain’s energy transition (the PNIEC 2030), whose ultimate goal is for the state to achieve emissions neutrality by 2050, biogas has its role. But to make it possible, it is an essential requirement to build and launch plants. And here it collides with a wall of social rejection in the form of citizen platforms, not so much to the technology itself, but to the implementation model. There are no shortage of reasons: from the classic fear of bad smell to the lack of territorial planning, promoter companies that present projects without setting foot on the territory and talking to those who live there, the gigantism of some facilities or the shadow of macro farms as arguments, such as They explain for El País the emeritus professor of Environmental Engineering at the Polytechnic University of Catalonia Xavier Flotats and the biologist and researcher at the National Museum of Natural Sciences Fernando Valladares. Why is it important. That biogas appears in Spain’s energy transition strategy implies that, sooner or later, it will materialize; the key now is in the as. It is also a direct path to energy sovereignty that replaces natural gas. Just take a look at the electricity price map in Europe To understand it: countries that depend on imported fossil fuels suffer from price volatility, while those who have opted for their own alternatives They achieve greater independence and stability. But its value goes beyond energy. These plants generate organic fertilizers that replace chemicals derived from petroleum and offer a real solution to waste management. The slurry or agricultural remains will be produced the same, with or without a plant; The difference is that biogas allows them to be turned into a resource instead of leaving them as an environmental problem. Context. A biogas plant is essentially a stomach where bacteria break down organic waste without oxygen, known as anaerobic digestion. From here two products are obtained: a gas rich in methane and a fertilizer. Depending on the gas obtained, the plant is simply biogas or biomethane: biogas is methane combined with carbon dioxide in almost equal parts, so it is a “weak” fuel that is usually burned on site to generate electricity or local heat. However, biomethane plants add a refining step (removing carbon dioxide) to obtain a gas similar to fossil natural gas. In Europe, the biogas sector is a consolidated industry with more than 19,000 plantsof which almost half are in Germany. A picture says a thousand words: this Europe biomethane plants map of Gas Infrastructure Europe shows the density in states like Germany or Denmark compared to the Spanish desert. The ecological dilemma. For engineer Xavier Flotats, the general rejection is a contradiction: “For some activists, it is better that a landfill is emitting methane into the atmosphere than taking the waste to a biogas plant to do something useful with it.” And he goes deeper by explaining that although this outgoing digestate has 95% of the input composition by weight, its composition changes, it is mineralized and converted into fertilizer. Valladares assures that biogas plants are greenwashing in that the process does not make the waste disappear, they only remove 5%. And that “Biogas plants cannot be understood without the macro farms industrial poultry, pigs and cows.” For the biologist at the National Museum of Natural Sciences, the only viable plants are few, small, safe and expensive. Marina Gros, representative of Ecologistas en Acción recognizes that “There are discrepancies within the organization because there is debate, there are different visions.” And in fact, have published a guide to evaluate case by case. The elephant in the room. Beneath the biogas dilemma inevitably lies the controversy of macro farms: In the event of a possible deployment of plants, the reality would be that part of the biogas produced in the state would depend on its slurry. There are those who see this as taking advantage of an already existing problem, but for other people it represents a facelift to a type of industrial livestock farming designed to maximize productivity at a lower cost compared to animal welfare and the environmental balance of the territory. Separate the wheat from the chaff. Faced with this flood of projects, experts agree on the importance of distinguishing sustainable plans from those that are not. Some signs that indicate that a project is reasonable include choosing a location close to the waste it manages and operating on a regional scale, with a plan to use the digestate as a local fertilizer and a design that guarantees total watertightness. On the contrary, there are signs that are authentic red flag: that the plant is far from the waste but close to gas pipelines, the absence of plans for digestate, the reception of waste in open pits, competition with other plants for raw materials or a logic of an industrial macroplant detached from the territory. In Xataka | A strange source of energy is putting Europe’s energy unity at risk: manure In Xataka | The ace up Spain’s sleeve to grow even more in the renewable energy landscape: biomethane Cover | Spencer DeMera and Eli DeFaria

The big problem with nuclear energy has always been its waste. Russia can now recycle them up to five times

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A nuclear reactor operating for 60 years using a closed system of three circulating fuel loads, subjected to cleaning processes and specific recharges in each cycle. What until recently seemed like an unattainable technical utopia for the energy industry is the reality that Russia’s latest technological breakthrough points to. The historic Achilles heel of nuclear fission—radioactive waste—is about to take a radical turn to become an almost inexhaustible resource. The magnitude of the test. The press release of Atom Media explains that Unit 1 of the Balakovo nuclear power plant (operated by Rosatom’s energy division) has just made history. They have successfully removed the last three lead test assemblies from an innovative fuel dubbed REMIX. These groups have completed three operating cycles of 18 months each. We are talking about 54 months performing at maximum capacity in a Russian commercial reactor type VVER-1000, thus exhausting its standard useful life. This puts the finishing touch to a demanding pilot program which started at the end of 2021 when the first six experimental rods were introduced into the reactor core. The resounding success. The most impressive thing about this milestone is not just that the fuel works, but where it works. Unlike other experiments designed for new generation fast reactors, REMIX fuel can be used in light water thermal reactors already operating massively around the planet. And without the need to modify its design or add costly security measures. The rehearsal went flawlessly. Yuri Ryzhkov, deputy chief engineer of the Balakovo power plant, detailed: “After each cycle, the fuel rods and structural elements were inspected using the television camera of the refueling machine. No deviations were detected during operation; neutron, physical and service characteristics remained within the design limits.” The science behind REMIX. But what exactly is this material? REMIX comes from Regenerated Mixture (Regenerated Mixture). Instead of using the usual natural enriched uranium, Russian scientists have created a matrix pellet that mixes regenerated uranium and plutonium (both recovered from already spent and reprocessed nuclear fuel), seasoned with some fresh enriched uranium. The technical key to the process is in the proportion: it maintains a very low level of plutonium, up to 1.5%. Thanks to this exact formulation, its neutron spectrum is practically identical to that of standard fuel. For practical purposes, the reactor core behaves the same and does not even “notice” the difference. The cleaning process. It is the circular economy taken to the atomic extreme. The magazine World Nuclear Newyes explains that this recycling cycle can be repeated up to five times. With each pass, the industry reprocesses the material to separate the useful uranium and plutonium from the fission products, which constitute the true radioactive waste. This useless waste is extracted and vitrified (encapsulated in glass) to be permanently and safely buried in geological deposits, while the useful fuel mixture is reintroduced into the reactor. The vision of the balanced cycle. Now it’s time for the laboratory and certification phase, where the irradiated material, now resting in cooling pools, will travel to the Atomic Reactor Research Institute in Dimitrovgrad for exhaustive analysis. Alexander Ugryumov, Vice President of R&D at TVEL (Rosatom’s fuel subsidiary), He announced that after these studies They will be able to bring the product to the market. The next evolutionary step will be to test mixtures with depleted uranium and up to 5% plutonium. All this is part of what Rosatom has called the “Balanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle” (NFC). The goal is to drastically reduce the volume and danger of radioactive waste, solving the historic problem of long-term storage for future generations and guaranteeing a truly sustainable production system. An impact on a global scale. Although the technical success is undeniable and the operational milestone in a commercial reactor is demonstrated, the mass adoption of this technology on a global level will largely depend on the commercialization costs and the economic viability of large-scale reprocessing; factors that the industry must demonstrate after the current qualification phase. However, if Rosatom manages to market REMIX at competitive prices, the global energy situation could take an unprecedented turn. We are not talking about a niche experiment. The data provided by Atom Media illustrate this magnitude: TVEL currently supplies fuel to more than 70 power reactors in 15 countries. Today, one in six reactors in the world operates with its technology. Moving from a linear “use and bury” industry to a closed loop where nuclear resources have multiple lives would not only dramatically expand the planet’s energy reserves, but could forever redefine the ecological viability of nuclear energy. Image | atom Xataka | The US has to make a crucial decision in Iran: exit without destroying its nuclear capabilities or a terrestrial “armaggedon”

We wanted electric cars and solar panels. The Hormuz blockade has returned us to the era of coal and nuclear energy

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The Third Gulf War has caused what decades of climate summits tried to avoid: the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has erased 20% of the world’s supply of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in one fell swoop. Faced with the imminent threat of a large-scale blackout, governments around the world have put their energy transition plans in a drawer. However, to keep the lights on and the economy afloat, the immediate response has been to look back to the past: burn coal by the piece and resurrect nuclear power. The mirage of “bridge fuel.” Asia buys more than 80% of the crude oil and gas that transits through Hormuz, but the problem goes far beyond a simple ship jam. This crisis has destroyed one of the great pillars of the energy transition. As explained The New York TimesLiquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was sold during the last decade as the perfect “bridge fuel”: less polluting than coal, more reliable than intermittent renewables and capable of being transported by sea to any corner. That bridge just blew up. The damage is far from being repaired, and it is estimated that the infrastructure attacked It will take years to operate again. Added to this is that Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a kind of maritime “VIP discotheque”deciding by hand which ships can cross. No one can depend on LNG ships to guarantee their sovereignty. The main problem: live without pantry. But there is a technical factor that has turned this crisis into an immediate catastrophe: lack of storage. Unlike the West, most Asian countries lack underground gas stores, leaving them completely exposed to supply disruptions. While nations like South Korea can last up to 52 days and Japan about three weeks, Taiwan walk on a wire extremely fragile, with a legal security threshold of just 11 or 12 days of reserves. Without a “pantry” to store the LNG, Asia has no room for maneuver: if the ship does not arrive on Monday, the blackout begins on Tuesday. This structural vulnerability is what has forced an unconditional surrender to coal. Coal’s dirty lifesaver. As Jonathan Teubner, the aforementioned analyst, perfectly summarizes by Financial Times: “No coal ship passes through the Strait of Hormuz.” That is the key to everything. Being a cheap, abundant resource that does not depend on the troubled waters of the Middle East, the most polluting mineral has returned with a bang. According to FortuneSouth Korea has removed the 80% operational cap for its coal plants, a decision that has drawn the ire of environmental groups who accuse the government of using “energy security as a pretext.” Thailand, for its part, is restarting plants it had dismantled last year. From Seoul to New Delhi: the dilemma of the powers. Japan, one of the world’s largest gas importers, has also bowed to the evidence, allowing its least efficient coal plants to operate at full capacity for a year. Energy desperation is such that in Japan There are already voices demanding cancel the emissions trading system, calling it a “death sentence” for the coal plants they now need to survive. In India, the situation is critical. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned of a “major challenge” ahead of the summer. To avoid massive blackouts, New Delhi has commanded giants such as Tata Power and Adani Power operate at full capacity, while Bangladesh seeks multi-billion dollar loans. Sam Chua, analyst at Rystad Energy, sums it up in Financial Times: We are not seeing a transition, but a brutal “destruction of gas demand.” Although it is not that simple: the money wall. This coal revival has a glass ceiling. As experts point out in Japan Timesthe banking sector flatly refuses to finance the construction of new coal plants for fear of being left with “stranded assets” (stranded assets) in the face of global climate commitments. That is, countries are squeezing their dirty old infrastructure to the last drop, but they can’t build new ones. Charcoal is the assisted respirator, but not the cure. The atom as a shield: the great redemption of uranium. Panic too has broken atomic taboos. Taiwan, whose government promised a “nuclear-free homeland” in 2016, has announced plans to restart two decommissioned reactors. The Philippines has charted a fast track to atomic energy by 2032, and Vietnam has just struck a deal with Russia to build its first reactors. Uranium is no longer seen as a threat, but rather as the only way to protect the electricity supply against maritime blackmail. The domino effect reaches Europe. What started as an emergency solution in Asia is already infecting the West. The crisis has forced the European Union to break its own historical taboos, admitting that Europe committed a “strategic mistake” by moving away from atomic energy. Brussels has already put 200 million euros on the table to develop Small Modular Reactors (SMR) by 2030. This shift shows a continental fracture: while France entrenches itself protecting its nuclear investment of 300 billion euros and blocks energy interconnections with the Iberian Peninsula, Europe assumes that it cannot guarantee its future solely with the sun and the wind. War rationing in the 21st century. While the plants uproot, the daily suffocation hit the streets. Philippines has declared a “national energy emergency.” In South Korea, the government implores families to take short showers and Samsung has prohibited its employees from driving to work based on the license plate. In Thailand, officials operate with work weeks for four days and they are prohibited from wearing ties in order to raise the temperature of the air conditioning. The collapse is so severe that Thai ambulances have taken to Facebook to beg gas stations to reserve diesel for them to save lives. The collateral damage. The scope of this blockage transcends the electricity bill. If the conflict lasts until June, Bloomberg alert that the barrel could touch $200, a price designed to cause “demand destruction.” This would lock global inflation at a chronic … Read more

Iran has made energy a problem again. The United Kingdom believes it has found a solution in solar panels

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There are issues that we believe are resolved until reality reminds us that they are not. Energy is one of them. We have been talking about for years solar panelsof self-consumption and of alternatives to fossil fuelsbut in many cases they remained a rather gradual, almost optional decision. That has changed. The rise in energy prices linked to the conflict in Iran has brought the problem back to the forefront and forced several governments to react. The United Kingdom has decided to act. The specific measure. What the British Government has put on the table is not a generic promise, but a plan to try bring so-called plug-in solar panels to stores in “the coming months.” To make it possible, the Government is working with Amazon, Lidl and the manufacturer EcoFlow. There is also an interesting nuance here: we are talking about an American e-commerce giant and a very recognizable supermarket chain in Europe. What makes them different. At this point, it is worth stopping for a moment on what exactly we are talking about. These plug-in solar panels do not work like a traditional photovoltaic installation, which usually requires construction, permits, and the intervention of a professional. The idea here is much simpler: smaller devices that can be placed on balconies, walls or gardens and connected directly to the home electrical network. According to the British Government, this approach would allow them to be used without the need for an electrician, as long as technical and safety standards are adapted. The context. It is no longer a secret that the conflict in Iran has hit one of the most sensitive points of the global energy system, the Strait of Hormuzthrough which a relevant part of the world’s oil circulates. When that flow is threatened, prices react quickly, and that is just what has happened. In a few days, crude oil and gas have risen sharply and that impact ends up reaching Europe in the form of more expensive fuels and higher bills, which has forced several governments to act. The European mirror. If we leave the United Kingdom, what we see is a map of quite diverse responses to the same problem. Rising energy prices have forced action, but each country is doing it in its own way. Spain has opted for a broad package of aid and tax cuts, valued at around 5,000 million euroswhile Germany has focused on regulating the behavior of gas stations and Portugal has applied fiscal adjustments more specific about fuels. Faced with these measures, more focused on cushioning the immediate blow, the British movement introduces another approach, facilitating access to alternatives such as solar energy to reduce dependence in the medium term. Images | Caspar Rae In Xataka | Europe has a million reasons to fear an increase in the price of electricity. Spain has something else: renewables

the intrahistory of the pact that isolates Spain from the global energy panic

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The world holds its breath in the face of what many already consider the Third Gulf War. According to ReutersEuropean gas prices have skyrocketed by more than 70%, dragged down by the Iranian attacks that 17% have been rendered useless of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, and by the almost total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The situation is so critical that the European Commission has urgently urged member countries to replenish their reserves – currently at a meager 28% – for next winter. However, in the midst of this geopolitical chaos, Spain breathes with unusual tranquility. A resounding calm. During the recent shareholders meeting of Naturgy, its executive president, Francisco Reynés, sent the following message: “Our customers are assured of supply.” Reynés guaranteed that the company feels “more protected” by not depending “absolutely anything on any Middle Eastern country.” Also backed by a strong historical commitment for renewable energiesSpain seems to have its homework done. But, just in case, the Government of Spain has decided to activate a “Plan B” to shield the country and keep energy prices at bay. This plan has a geographical name and surname: Algeria. A lifesaver that not only ensures volume, but also guarantees an energy bill with a strategic ‘discount’ compared to the exorbitant prices of the rest of Europe. A strategic partner. To consolidate this energy shield, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares, has met on his first official trip to Algiers not only with his counterpart, Ahmed Attaf, and the Minister of Hydrocarbons, Mohamed Arkab, but with the Algerian president himself, Abdelmayid Tebune. The primary objective of the meeting has been to strengthen the bilateral strategic partnership in energy matters in the face of fears of global shortages. but this trip certifies the definitive end of the deep diplomatic crisis unleashed in 2022, when Spain aligned itself with Morocco’s theses on Western Sahara. Despite that historic setback, Albares wanted to emphasize that “Algeria is a reliable, constant supplier, under any circumstances”, recalling that the flow of Algerian gas was never interrupted during the months of tension. How is this cheap shielding going to materialize? The negotiations are in an advanced phase to squeeze the most out of the Medgaz underwater gas pipeline. The intention is to increase the volume of supply up to 10%which would mean injecting around 1,000 million additional cubic meters per year. At the moment, according to data from Bloombergthe pipeline was operating at about 28 million cubic meters per day at the beginning of the year, compared to its nominal capacity of 32 million. This government movement walks hand in hand with corporate strategy. Naturgy seeks to give even greater stability to its historical relationship with Sonatrach, the Algerian state company, with which it maintains supply contracts for around 5,000 million cubic meters annually until 2030. The alliance is so close that Sonatrach owns 51% of Medgaz and 4.1% of Naturgy’s capital. It is precisely these long-term contracts that act as an “anti-inflation shield”, protecting Spanish consumers from the violent increases of the free market. Beyond gas. The recovered attunement is not limited to ensuring the most immediate fossil supply. According to Europa PressAlbares and his counterparts have agreed to explore greater cooperation at the infrastructure level, opening the door to “possible analyzes and joint work” between Spanish and Algerian companies throughout the hydrocarbon sector. Furthermore, the will of both governments is to go one step ahead and analyze another type of supply where there is “a shared interest and commitment”, putting on the table the development of solar energy and the promising green hydrogen. The Italy factor: copy or desperate competition? Spain’s movement is not an isolated event in the Mediterranean. Just one day before Albares’ arrival, the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, also landed in Algiers looking for exactly the same thing: gas. According to Financial TimesItaly is one of the European economies most exposed to this crisis, since 44% of its electricity is generated in gas plants. Its big problem is that Qatar, which supplied 33% of Italian LNG, has declared force majeure after the Iranian attacks on its Ras Laffan facilities. To patch this huge hole, Meloni has appealed to historical diplomacy recalling the “Mattei Plan”, the legendary founder of the Italian energy company ENI, which financed and supported Algerian independence in the 50s and 60s. Accompanied by the current CEO of ENI, Meloni has signed agreements with Sonatrach for the extraction of shale gas and offshore exploration, with the dream of turning Italy into the gas distribution “hub” for northern Europe, as pointed out Euronews. Does this pose a threat to Spanish supply? In the short term, it seems difficult. As detailed by the British media, the TransMed gas pipeline that connects Algeria with Italy is already operating at maximum capacity. Furthermore, Algerian domestic consumption has grown by 7% in the last year, limiting its physical margin to export additional gas. And there is another difference, while Spain has done its homework, Italy has stagnated. The installation of new renewable capacity in Italy fell 8.2% last year, leaving it at the mercy of the whims of a hydrocarbon market with skyrocketing prices. The Mediterranean as a refuge. Ultimately, the Third Gulf War has forced Spain to relocate its energy compass, moving it away from the turbulent waters of the Strait of Hormuz to dock in the safety of the Mediterranean. By strengthening its ties with Algeria and supported by the strength of key companies such as Naturgy, the country has managed to isolate itself from the panic that is currently devouring its European partners. Leaving complex geopolitical tensions aside, the triumph of this shielding is above all economic. While Europe looks in panic at next winter’s energy bill after suffering increases of 70%, Spain has managed to secure a stable supply, direct by tube and at protected prices. An Algerian “discount” that, today, is worth its weight in gold. Image | Photo by Helio Dilolwa on … Read more

Iran has just crossed the great energy red line. Türkiye is the first victim of a blackout that is already looking at Europe

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We had been holding our breath for weeks, accepting the logistical tension in the Strait of Hormuz as the new normal. However, the war has crossed an irreversible red line. We have gone from a trade blockade to the physical destruction of the world’s energy engine, and the consequences are already being felt in the global economy. The impact was so immediate that the price of natural gas in Europe skyrocketed by 35%. Global interdependence has caused the first major domino to fall to be thousands of kilometers from the epicenter: Turkey has become the first country to suffer a gas supply cut, marking the beginning of a chain reaction. The blow to the energetic heart. It is not just any objective. As explained Deutsche Welle, South Pars is the largest natural gas reserve in the world – shared with Qatar, which calls its part North Dome – and contains enough gas to supply the world’s needs for 13 years. It is the basis of Iran’s energy survival. The response from Tehran was withering and expansive. As detailed in the Wall Street JournalIran did not limit itself to responding to Israel, but attacked vital infrastructure in neighboring countries, launching missiles against the gigantic Ras Laffan industrial complex in Qatar (the largest liquefied natural gas facility in the world) and refineries in Saudi Arabia. In the midst of this war chaos, Iran turned off the tap: Tehran suddenly paralyzed its natural gas exports to Türkiye. Türkiye in the eye of the hurricane. The cutoff to Türkiye is not an anecdote, it is the symptom of a systemic crisis. According to the data provided by BloombergLast year, Ankara imported around 13% or 14% of its total gas needs (about 7 billion cubic meters) from Iran. To the gallery, the Turkish government tries to project calm. How to collect ReutersTurkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has categorically assured that “there are no supply problems” and that the country’s storage facilities are at 71% of their capacity. Furthermore, the minister insists that oil dependence of the Middle East is a “manageable 10%” and they are already accelerating diversification agreements with giants such as TotalEnergies, Exxon and Shell. The markets are not optimistic. The experts consulted by Middle East eye They point out that Turkey has alternatives – such as increasing the flow from Russia or Azerbaijan – but the closing of the Iranian tap will force Ankara to compete fiercely in the international market for emergency shipments of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Panic reaches Europe. And this is where the domino effect hits us directly. As Türkiye goes on a desperate hunt for LNG ships, the pressure on prices becomes unsustainable for the Old Continent. The day after the start of the conflict, the price of gas rose 55%. However, in the midst of this European chaos, one country is resisting the challenge much better than its neighbors: Spain. Thanks to a massive deployment of solar and wind energy, our country manages to cushion the initial blow by sinking prices during daylight hours. But the transition is painfully incomplete and we are not invulnerable. As analyst Antonio Aceituno, from Tempos Energía, warns, the Spanish balance is broken when evening falls. When the sun disappears, gas combined cycles begin to cover demand, returning tension to prices. It is empirical proof that, without massive batteries to guard the sun, at eight in the afternoon we are still at the mercy of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. As the expert Gerard Reid reflects in Euronewsit is preferable to depend on China to import a solar panel once every 25 years, than to depend on gas from the Persian Gulf every day. Broken diplomacy. Arab governments are “furious” because they feel the US-Israeli strategy has put a target on their backs. For its part, Qatar has called the attacks on its facilities a “dangerous and irresponsible step” and a direct threat to its national security. In the midst of this powder keg, Washington’s role is erratic. President Donald Trump took to social media to deny prior knowledge of the Israeli attack on South Pars. However, Trump did not hesitate to issue a brutal ultimatum to Tehran: if it attacks Qatar again, the United States will “massively blow up the entire” Iranian oilfield. The scars of a systemic war. As my colleague Miguel Jorge analyzes well,the dynamic that has been activated is dangerously reminiscent of the 1991 Gulf War. It is no longer about destroying military capabilities or political pressure; We are facing a war against the very infrastructure that supports the states. The apparent lightness with which this conflict has developed has dragged us into a dead end. Iran has shown that it does not need to win a conventional military war; It is enough for him to set the energetic heart of the planet on fire. Even if a ceasefire were signed tomorrow, the material reality is inescapable. Charred refineries and dry pipelines to Türkiye are not rebuilt with signatures on a piece of paper. The scar on the world’s infrastructure will take years to heal, and the crisis that we had been avoiding for months has already detonated irreversibly. Image | Hamed Malekpour Xataka | The red lines are ceasing to exist: the fear of the US and Qatar in the face of Iran’s attacks on basic infrastructure

China has been patiently preparing for a major global energy crisis for years. And now it reaps its fruits

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The Third Gulf War is here and the global oil market looks into the abyss. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has unleashed an unprecedented logistical panic and has catapulted the barrel of Brent well above $100. The panic is palpable throughout the Asian continent: The Philippines cuts working hours, Singapore sends its office workers to telework and Thailand intervenes in diesel prices in desperation. Just a few thousand kilometers away, China observes the global chaos with an almost insulting coldness. The Asian giant has not been saved by providence, but by millimetric planning. Just as centuries ago it built a vast stone infrastructure to stop nomadic invasions, Beijing has been building an invisible Great Wall for more than a decade to isolate itself from fossil volatility. The seed of this resistance must be found five years ago. In 2021, during a visit to an oil field, President Xi Jinping ruled that China should keep the “energy rice bowl” firmly in its own hands. According to The Economisttransferring this traditional metaphor (historically used to appeal to food sovereignty) to energy, made clear a state obsession: the country was going to prepare tirelessly for the worst possible scenario. Is patience a good bet? There are several popular proverbs and sayings that say that whoever waits, victory will be sweeter. In the case of China it is a pure and simple pragmatic and geostrategic application. As we analyze in Xatakathis shielding is the direct result of the strategy “Made in China 2025” designed a decade ago. The Chinese government understood that dependence on foreign oil and gas was its greatest military and economic vulnerability. Mass electrification was not an environmental whim, but a matter of national survival. Today, China generates more than a quarter of its electricity with sun and wind, rewriting the world order and dividing the board between the old “petrostates” and the new “electrostates.” But while that transition is complete, Beijing has not neglected the fossil economy. The Chinese model puts raw resilience before the efficiency of Western markets, As a column points out Five Days. The best example is what happened last year. While global markets debated an alleged oil oversupply, China took advantage of the low prices to spend $10 billion buying heavily sanctioned oil from Russia, Venezuela and Iran; a crude oil that, in reality, I did not need immediately. The result of this silent hoarding is that today China has massive Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), estimated between 900 and 1.4 billion barrels. This mattress is enough to cover between 96 and 140 days of your internal demand without caring for a single drop from the outside. The shield in action This long-term preparation has allowed China to deploy an arsenal of almost immediate containment measures since the conflict in the Gulf broke out: Closing energy borders: The first lightning order from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission was to demand from their state giants of refining (PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC) to immediately suspend gasoline and diesel exports to protect the supply of the domestic market. The “shadow fleet”: Despite the war and the blockade, oil continues to flow to China. Iran is exporting a daily average of 2.1 million barrels using a fleet of old oil tankers without tracking systems that operate outside the US financial system. Land alternatives: To completely avoid the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz, the Asian power is squeezing to the maximum the land pipelines that connect it directly with Russia and Kazakhstan. Renewable bestiality: This is your shield more impenetrable: The price of solar panels and electric cars does not rise when there is a war in the Persian Gulf. In July 2024, China reached its goal of 1,200 GW of wind and solar capacity, achieving it six years ahead of schedule. In addition, new energy vehicles have already exceeded 60% of total car sales in the country by the end of 2025. Megainfrastructures and market reform: To manage the intermittency of renewables, increased their storage capacity by batteries 75% in 2025. Furthermore, the political response does not stop, as detailed ChinaDailyhave announced that the National Energy Administration will launch urgent reforms ahead of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) to create a “unified national energy market” capable of managing the volatility of having so much green energy on the grid. The dominance of uranium: Faced with the need to fuel its 58 operational nuclear reactors and the 27 under construction, Beijing has budgeted about $16 billion for resource storage in 2026. This includes the exploitation of gigantic deposits in the Ordos Desert and the pioneering extraction of uranium from seawater. The small print However, China’s energy “rice bowl” still has cracks. To keep the system afloat, the country remains dependent on an immense, dirty safety net: the coal. In 2024, this mineral supplied 56% of its energy primary and, currently, they have more than 300 plants under construction. As emphasized a report of ChinaPower Projectdespite the pollution, the vast and abundant supply of coal offers Chinese policymakers a true final “safety net” against disruptions from other sources. But the real battle for survival is not only fought in the oil wells, but in the semiconductor laboratories. Although the country manufactured an astronomical 484 billion chips in 2024, still no access to the UVE lithography machines of the European company ASML. However, the Asian giant is finding cracks in the Western blockade. China already has two companies, SMIC and Huali Microelectronics, capable of producing advanced 7-nanometer chips using engineering techniques ‘multiple patterning’ using machines from previous generations. It is a more expensive and less efficient process, but it shows that sanctions only accelerate their quest for sovereignty. The next bottleneck to overcome is chemical. The country depends almost entirely on Japan (specifically from JSR Corporation) to obtain the hyper-specialized photoresist liquids needed in chip lithography. The new Chinese five-year plan has already set a five-year deadline to also break this Japanese monopoly. And while China weaves this net of absolute … Read more

Ukraine and the secret of its energy shield

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In 1973, a political decision was enough to unleash a global energy crisis. Today, that same effect can be caused by a swarm of drones or a few naval mines. Meanwhile, the infrastructures that support the world’s supply remain, in many cases, enormous facilities designed for another era, when the greatest danger came from the sky in the form of missiles, not small, cheap and constant threats. The five-day countdown. Five days leftactually slightly less than four troops, so that a specific threat can change the global energy balance, and it all starts with a tactical move: the United States has gone from a 48-hour ultimatum to bomb Iranian power plants to a five day break supported by diplomatic contacts that are still very weak. We are talking about a maneuver that does not imply real de-escalation but time gained to avoid a step that could trigger immediate retaliation throughout the region and, above all, convert the energy infrastructure in priority objective of open war. The real fear. The key to these hours is not only in the military fronts, but in the possibility that the conflict begins to knock down energy nodes systematically. The United States has come to put the attack on the table to electrical installations Iranians. For its part, Iran has responded by threatening to mine the gulf routes Persian and turn the area into an almost blocked space. Between one thing and the other, the message is more or less clear, because the war no longer revolves only around bases, scientists or arsenals, but around cables, terminals, pumping stations, along with oil ports and maritime corridors without which the entire planet begins to tremble. Kharg, Hormuz and the heart of the industry. The Kharg island appears in this story like a lot more than a point on the map. It is the great exit center for Iranian crude oil. It is also one of the places where a military offensive would a direct effect on global oil flows. Plus: it adds to the other decisive name of this war, the Strait of Hormuzthrough which a gigantic part of the world’s crude oil trade passes. When both places enter the equation at the same time, what is at stake stops being a one-off retaliation and becomes the real possibility of a prolonged shock to the global energy industry. Ukraine, again. That’s why everyone is looking at Ukraine again. I remembered this morning the new york times that the planet does not do it only because its war turned drones into absolute protagonists of the battlefield. It does so also because it was one of the first places where it was understood that modern energy infrastructure could survive only if it was transformed into a stepped fortress. Because Russia was hitting refineries, gas plants and critical nodes for years. And Ukraine responded building a shield made of electronic warfare, interceptor drones, physical defenses, dispersion of equipment and hardening works that sought one very simple thing: to continue functioning even under constant attack. The secret: hold on. From that perspective, the main Ukrainian lesson is not to have found a perfect defense, because that may not exist. Rather, it consists of having assumed that the enemy will hit again again, and in reducing damage, protecting the most expensive components, bury part of the facilitieserect concrete barriers and add layers of jamming and interception to complicate each attack. In short, it consists of moving from the old logic of protecting large infrastructures as if they only had to resist a major bombing from the last century, to a new logic in which you have to resist repeated waves of small, cheap and constant threats. The Gulf discovers the Ukrainian problem. Because the Gulf countries had thought above all about missiles. Ukraine it took time adding to the equation the drone swarms cheap. This difference is decisive because taking down low-cost threats with very expensive systems is not sustainable for a long time. And that is where the Ukrainian experience becomes valuable for the Middle East: not because of a miraculous technology, but because it has developed a layered defense. more flexible and cheaperadapted to an enemy that can saturate the sky with relatively simple but devastating devices for gigantic and very vulnerable installations. Few days to understand where the war is going. If you like, the central idea of ​​these hours is brutally simple. There are few left less than four days to check if the pause announced by the United States It serves to cool down the war or only to bring it closer to its most dangerous phase. If it fails, the focus will no longer be just on who bombs who, but on whether the region’s energy industry can continue standing. And in that scenario, Ukraine reappears as an unexpected reference one more time. First It was the laboratory of drone warfare, and now aims to also become the emergency manual to protect power plants, plants and terminals in an era in which energy has become one of the most delicate and decisive targets on the board. Image | Ministry of Defense of Ukraine In Xataka | Iran has led the world to desperately search for energy sources. So China has made an irrefutable proposal to Taiwan In Xataka | A ship has just arrived in Iran with the most dangerous mission: to fulfill the radical plan that the US had 40 years ago

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