The war in Iran is going to repeat a suicidal scenario from 1980. But with drones and kamikaze boats in the most fearsome point on the planet

At first glance it is just a strip of water between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, but its importance it’s huge. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the few places on the planet where global trade it literally depends of a maritime corridor just a few kilometers wide. Every day dozens of supertankers and monster container ships pass through it, connecting the Middle East. with the rest of the planeta constant choreography that moves energy, raw materials and essential products on a global scale. Therefore, when something happens there, the effect is greatly felt. beyond the Gulf. The most dangerous bottleneck on the planet. As we said, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical geographical points of the world economic system and also one of the most vulnerable. At its narrowest point it barely reaches 33 kilometers wide and thousands of ships pass through it every month connecting the Persian Gulf with the rest of the planet. Through this maritime strip it circulates around a fifth of oil that is traded in the world, large volumes of liquefied natural gas and an essential part of the industrial raw materials that sustain the global economy. But its importance goes beyond energy: it is also a key artery for trade in fertilizers and chemicals that end up directly influencing food production. When this route is interrupted, not only are the energy markets altered, the entire chain that connects agricultural fields, the chemical industry and supermarkets is shaken. War stops traffic. The military escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran has brought that critical point to the brink of a historic crisis. Attacks on oil tankers and commercial vessels, along with direct warnings from Tehran to shipping companies, have caused traffic through the strait to reduce. almost to zero in matter of days. Several vessels have been hit by projectiles or dronessome energy facilities in Gulf countries have been attacked and oil prices have reacted immediately with strong rises. Shipping companies and insurers have begun to cancel policies or dramatically raise war insurance costs, as some ships attempt to cross the zone with their location systems turned off to reduce the probability of being identified as a target. Washington’s response and the convoys. Faced with the risk that the global energy flow will be blocked, the United States has raised an extraordinary measure: escort oil tankers and commercial vessels with the US Navy and also offer financial guarantees and political insurance to reassure shipping companies. The idea seeks to avoid a global energy shock, but it implies send warships directly to the most dangerous area of ​​the Gulf. Organizing maritime convoys is a complex operation that requires destroyers, aircraft and military resources that could not be used in other missions. Furthermore, even with an escort, experts remember that ships would continue to navigate within an extremely hostile space, where reaction times to attacks can be reduced to minutes. The ghost of the eighties. I was counting this morning the financial times that the situation inevitably reminds one of the most tense episodes of the Cold War in the Middle East: the so-called “tanker war” which developed during the conflict between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s. So both countries They systematically attacked maritime traffic in the Gulf with missiles, naval mines and air strikes. A kamikaze battle involving more than four hundred commercial ships were damaged or sunk and the United States deployed dozens of ships to escort convoys and protect oil tankers. Still, the risk it was huge: American frigates were severely damaged by mines and missiles and dozens of sailors were killed. That crisis demonstrated the extent to which a regional conflict could put global trade in check. The difference: drones and kamikaze boats. The war in Iran is about to end repeat the scenario suicide bombing of 1980, but with a difference: now there are drones and kamikaze boats at the most fearsome point for the planet. From then until now the Iranian arsenal has evolved radically and today it combines long-range anti-ship missiles, thousands of cruise shellsarmed drones, diesel submarines, modern naval mines and fast vessels capable of swarming attacks. Added to this are unmanned surface vehicles, small ships loaded with explosives that hit the hulls of ships at the waterline, causing flooding in the engine room and rapid sinking. In a strait “so narrow” and close to the Iranian coast, these systems offer Tehran a obvious tactical advantage. An economic weapon to paralyze everything. Even without completely blocking the passage, the simple risk of attacks can paralyze maritime traffic. Recent history of the red seawhere attacks by militias allied with Iran diverted trade routes for months, shows that it only takes a few incidents to skyrocket shipping costs and force shipping companies to look for much longer alternative routes. In Hormuz the effect would be much greater because it is of the natural exit of the energy production of the entire Gulf. Tanker freight rates have already skyrocketed and any sign of mines or new attacks could double shipping prices again. A global pulse with unpredictable consequences. Close Hormuz also has a cost for Iranwhose economy depends largely on exporting its own oil, especially to China. However, the strategic logic of the conflict could push Tehran to use the strait as an economic lever to pressure Washington and its allies. In any case, the longer the war continues, the greater the temptation on both sides to use energy as a weapon. In that scenario, the world could face a perfect storm: skyrocketing oil, scarce fertilizers and more expensive food. All concentrated in a strait just a few kilometers wide that once again becomes the most fragile point in the global economic system. Image | eutrophication&hypoxiaNZ Defense Force, National Museum of the US Navy In Xataka | Shahed drones are spreading terror in the Gulf. Ukraine has offered the solution, and the price to pay has a name In Xataka | Spain has … Read more

China has concentrated thousands of fishing boats off Japan, and its idea is not to fish

The East China Sea is one of the more sensitive scenarios of the strategic balance in Asia for decades. territorial disputes, historical rivalries and the growing weight of new powers have turned these waters into a space where every movement is observed with a magnifying glass. There, apparently minor gestures usually fit into dynamic much deeperand China has just made a move. The diplomatic fuse. Japan’s detention of a chinese fishing boat within its exclusive economic zone, about 170 kilometers from Nagasaki, has rekindled a relationship already deteriorated between Tokyo and Beijing, with a certain island as a backdrop. He captain’s arrestafter refusing an inspection, occurs in a context of growing dispute marked by Japanese statements on Taiwan and the subsequent Chinese warnings its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. Therefore, it is not an isolated episode, but rather the visible spark of a maritime tension that had been building for weeks. Images from space. AIS system data and the images by satellite show unprecedented concentrations of up to 2,000 fishing boats Chinese aligned near the median line between the two countries in the East China Sea. The formations, hundreds of kilometers long and with vessels separated by less than 500 meters, remained more than 24 hours in static positions despite adverse weather conditions. In other words, China was concentrating thousands of fishing boats off Japan, and its idea is not exactly to fish. The maritime militia and the “gray zone”. They counted on Nikkei that the vast majority of these fishing vessels are part of the so-called chinese maritime militiaa civil network that cooperates with the State and the Army in operations that do not reach the threshold of armed conflict. A priori, this strategy allows pressure to be exerted without formally deploying naval forces, thus making a direct response difficult. In other words, as we count A few weeks ago, what was presented as economic activity could become a test of maritime control or even the interruption of trade routes in the first island chain. Taiwan as a backdrop. Impossible to ignore it. The maneuvers coincide with statements by the Japanese government warning that a crisis in the Taiwan Strait would be an existential threat for Japan. Beijing, for its part, considers the island part of its territory and does not rule out the use of forcewhile Tokyo reinforces its deterrent posture. In this context, each movement in the East China Sea takes on a meaning that goes beyond fishing and is integrated into the regional strategic calculation. A pattern of sustained pressure. Furthermore, the activity is not limited to civil fleets. I remembered the Guardian that the Chinese coast guard has broken presence records around to the Senkaku Islandsalso known as Diaoyu in China, and has released images of patrols in disputed waters for the first time. Plus: the Liaoning aircraft carrier has expanded its radius of operations near Okinawa, while Beijing advances infrastructure on its side of the maritime median line. More than boats, an essay. Analysts interpret these concentrations like exercises of mobilization and coordination within the civil-military fusion plan promoted by Beijing. There is no doubt, the capacity of gather thousands of boats civilians at a strategic point in a short time sends a fairly clear message about the possibility of, for example, saturating maritime spaces without openly resorting to force. In this way, the pulse is no longer so much or only bilateral, but rather a warning to the entire region: China is perfecting tools to shape the balance of the Indo-Pacific, and it is doing so without firing a single shot. Image | Planet Labs, Marine Traffic, Anna Frodesiak, Micromesistius In Xataka | China’s best weapon doesn’t fire a single bullet: 300km ‘moving wall’ to close sea routes instantly In Xataka | China has turned deep-sea salmon farming into an engineering feat. This state-of-the-art boat proves it

In reality, it hides elevators that take boats up through the heart of a mountain

Let’s imagine a ship that, instead of descending through locks, rises up a mountain inside a chamber of water. That’s exactly what happens in Goupitana dam in southwest China where the difference in level between the reservoir and the river reaches almost two hundred meters. To overcome this gap, engineers designed three consecutive elevators capable of transporting boats of five hundred tons. It is a system that combines the scale of a hydroelectric dam with the precision of a clock and has once again transformed the Wu River into a continuous navigable waterway after more than twenty years of interruption. For years, the Wu River was a natural highway for Guizhou. From its mountains, barges descended towards the Yangtze loaded with minerals, cement or fertilizers. Everything changed with the construction of large hydroelectric dams in the early 2000s: the reservoirs generated power, but completely cut off shipping. Between 2009 and 2016 there was no continuous navigable passage in Goupitán: the goods had to be unloaded before the damget on trucks, go around the mountain and embark again upriver. That transshipment could take one or two days and cost more than 20,000 yuan per barge, an obstacle that discouraged river transport and made the local economy more expensive. Three elevators, the same river and a mountain in between Goupitan is not one boat lift, but three that work in series to allow the river to become navigable again. Each one overcomes a part of the unevenness and, between them, a connection channel It combines tunnels dug into the mountain and an aqueduct suspended over the valley. According to the Guizhou Department of Transportationthe group forms a route of just over two kilometers where they can operate barges standard five hundred tons. The design distributes the total elevation into three sections, with a fully balanced central level and two submersible-type ends. This system became the first in the world in applying three consecutive elevators within the same project and in achieving an unprecedented single level elevation of 127 m. The investment was around three billion yuan (about 400 million euros), and the infrastructure can move almost three million tons of cargo per year. The operation of Goupitan is based on a principle as simple as it is effective: that of balance. Each ship enters a chamber filled with waterso that the total weight hardly changes when the boat floats inside. This almost constant mass is compensated by counterweights and steel cables that raise and lower the drawer with a precision of centimeters. The first and third elevators are submersible type, with the box that sinks into the water to equalize levels, while the central one uses a fully balanced system, similar to a conventional elevator but on a monumental scale. Electric motors drive the drums that wind the cables, and the entire operation is controlled by sensors that measure tension and position in real time. If they detect a deviation, the system stops immediately. Three years after the hydroelectric dam came into service, navigation works began. For almost ten years, the place was transformed into an engineering laboratory. Navigation tunnels had to be opened under the rock, metal towers had to be erected and the steel caissons had to be assembled by hand inside the valley. In June 2021, a boat five hundred tons completed the journey of the three elevators, marking a milestone. In 2023After the latest inspections, the Ministry of Transportation declared the system operational and handed it over to the provincial authorities for commercial exploitation. Once in service, the system operates as a synchronized chain. The complete transit through the three levels takes approximately 38 minutes, according to official data. The process is automated: sensors, cameras and a central control room manage the gates, water pressure and cable movement. The impact was noticeable from the first day. In November 2021a convoy of fourteen barges carrying seven thousand tons of phosphate completed the journey of the three lifts and marked the official return of navigation on the Wu River after more than twenty years of interruption. Since then, river traffic has established itself as a real alternative to road transport, with lower costs and a much smaller environmental footprint. For Guizhou, a landlocked provincethat difference is strategic. The Wu River connects with the Yangtze and, through it, with the port of Shanghai. The reactivation of traffic makes it possible to export minerals and construction materials directly from the interior and, in turn, receive raw materials without depending on land transportation. Maintenance tasks are constant. Each elevator undergoes daily inspections and more in-depth checks every few weeks. The technicians, for their part, have received specific training to operate the machinery. Keeping such a structure in balance requires the same precision as building it and close operational coordination with the exploitation of the reservoir. Goupitan’s system changed the map of boat lifts. Until its entry into operation, the reference was the elevator the Three Gorges Damwith a difference in altitude of 113 meters. In Europe, the Strépy-Thieuin Belgium, with 73 meters, and the Falkirk Wheel Scottish, a rotating structure of 35. None approaches 199 meters that covers the whole of China nor the 127 of its central section, the highest individual elevation recorded to date. The Goupitan boat lift is nestled in one of the most rugged landscapes in southwest China. The river meanders between forest-covered mountains and villages scattered on the banks. Official photographs taken with drones show the real scale of the complex: three gigantic chambers connected by tunnels and aqueducts, with ships that appear tiny as they ascend. The contrast between industrial precision and the geography of the valley explains part of the visual impact of seeing them in motion. Although its purpose is strictly logistical, The place has attracted the attention of curious people and visitors. From the road that borders the reservoir and the access to the damand get panoramic viewsand media coverage has popularized aerial images of the maneuvers. Images | Guizhou Government In Xataka … Read more

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