Strait

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz already points to gasoline at two euros/liter

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Unpredictable, unexpected and extreme impact. There are three characteristics that define what Nassim TalebLebanese philosopher, mathematician and essayist, pointed out to explain the “black swan theory”. With it he tries to explain what position to take in the face of such an inexplicable event of which we cannot understand its consequences. The theory takes its cue from the poet Juvenal, who once spoke of “a rare bird on earth, and very similar to a black swan“, a phrase that makes it clear that there was a time when it was believed that the swan, invariably, must be white because a black one had never been discovered. The phrase, in fact, was popular in England centuries ago. For Western Europe, swans were white. Spot. But a Dutch expedition at the end of the 17th century in Australia found that the black swan did indeed exist, which forever changed the knowledge we had on this subject. It was an unexpected, unpredictable event whose impact was extreme in its branch. Nacho Rabadán, general director of CEEES (Spanish Confederation of Service Station Employers), the most representative association of the sector, rescues this theory to point out what can happen with a constant block of the Strait of Hormuz. “Whenever there are problems in the Middle East, there is speculation about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz and whenever that possibility is on the table, the price of oil rises. If Hormuz were really closed, we would be talking about a black swan, there would be an immediate and violent reaction in the price of oil and we would be in a scenario similar to that of the spring of 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine,” Rabadán explains to ABC. Gasoline at two euros/liter If the prices of the first days of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are reached, we would be talking about gasoline at a sustained price of between 1.80 and 2.00 euros/liter. At that time, Europe got to work to contain the impact on homes, mitigated in our country with one of subsidy of 20 cents/liter that did not end up stopping the rise in price and which, in fact, came to be used as means to attract clients according to the CNMC. Those days when OPEC maneuvered to keep the price of oil above $80/barrel seems far away. It even reached $130/barrel. But now they seem more alive than ever. The Strait of Hormuz is a key passage for energy for much of the world. It is an enclave of high tension, where the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf narrow to leave just a passage of between 60 and 100 kilometers for ships loaded with oil. For Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, controlling the passage of ships is key. since two weeksthe traffic is committed and with the attack by the United States and Israel on Iranand the country’s response to neighboring countries with US bases, the closure seems confirmed. A closure that has caught some 240 ships stopped in the middle of a historic traffic jam. Of them, Bloomberg The number of detained ships loaded with the precious commodity is estimated at 40 supertankers. The impact on the oil futures market was immediate once the attack became known but, for now, the price per barrel is close to 73 euros/unit (a few days ago it was around 65 dollars/barrel). The impact should be felt in the coming days if the fight becomes entrenched and Hormuz remains closed. For now, the price of gasoline has already risen slightly but the figures we find at the pumps will be, in the opinion of analystsmuch lower than we can expect in a few days. With the Ukrainian War and the Russia’s exit from the market (legal) of fuel, the price of gasoline shot up to 2.15 euros/liter and diesel to 2.10 euros/liter. The fear, of course, is not that only the price of fuel will skyrocket. Increasing its price impacts a general rise in prices since transportation is much more expensive. In fact, indirectly, not only the closure of Hormuz to the passage of oil can make products more expensive. Have to border the entire African coast to reach Europe to avoid attacks by some and others would raise the final bill. Both because of the extra fuel spent and the higher cost of keeping a ship traveling for more than 10 days, which extends the route in traffic between Asia and Europe. Photo | Marek Studzinski and Glenn Fawcett, Gieling, Rob In Xataka | Spain was supposed to raise diesel in 2026. It was supposed

Tension in Iran is so high that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And that will have consequences when you go to refuel.

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The world woke up today with a dangerous contradiction: while in the aseptic halls of Geneva the diplomats of the United States and Iran they shake hands cautiouslyin the waters of the Persian Gulf, the speedboats of the Revolutionary Guard block the passage of oil tankers. It doesn’t take a missile to fall for the global economy to feel the impact; Fear is trading higher and traveling faster than any ship. The Strait of Hormuz, the planet’s energy jugular, has undergone closure “partial and temporary” for the first time since tensions escalated in January. For the consumer, this is not a distant headline: the price of Brent oil has already increased by 13% so far this year. An increase in prices that does not respond to a real lack of supply, but rather to the geopolitical risk premium. We are paying for what could happen, not for what has happened. As confirmed by Iranian state media cited by EuronewsTehran ordered the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz under the justification of “security precautions.” The Iranian Fars news agency, referenced by Deutsche Welleexplained that this maneuver responds to the military exercises called “Intelligent Control of the Strait of Hormuz.” It is an unprecedented move in this crisis: it is the first time that Iran has physically closed sectors of the waterway since the US administration threatened military action last January. However, it is important to clarify the operational scope so as not to fall into unjustified alarmism. Jakob Larsen, safety director at Bimco (the association representing global shipowners), explained to the CNBC that it is not an indefinite total block. The closure affects the incoming “traffic separation scheme” area and lasts “several hours.” Iranian authorities have asked commercial ships to stay away from the exercise zone, which is causing delays and “minor inconveniences,” but the flow has not stopped completely. A 33 kilometer funnel for 20% of the world’s oil To understand why the market is holding its breath, you have to look at the map. The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) rate this step as the “choke point” (chokepoint) most important in the world for oil transit. The figures are overwhelming: Volume: About 20 million barrels of crude oil, condensates and refined products flow through this artery daily. Global Impact: According to data from consulting firms Vortexa and Kplerthis represents approximately 20% of global consumption of petroleum liquids and nearly 30% of maritime crude oil trade. The problem is geographical. As explained D.W.At its narrowest point, the road is just 33 kilometers wide. But crucially, the safe navigable route for large supertankers is only two miles wide in each direction. It’s a perfect funnel where any interruption, no matter how small, creates an immediate domino effect. He timing of this military operation is not a coincidence; It’s a message. As analyzed Euronewsthe partial closure occurred exactly while the second round of nuclear talks between Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, and Steve Witkoff, US special envoy, was being held in Geneva. For this reason, Tehran is using the strait as a negotiating lever. The United States has increased its military pressure with the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford in the region, in response to both Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the bloody repression of internal protests shaking the Persian country. Paradoxically, diplomacy seems to advance while the guns are aimed. According to ReutersAraghchi confirmed after the meeting that a “principle of agreement” has been reached on the bases of a future relationship, although he warned that closing the final pact will be a slow process. Iran shows its fist in the sea while offering its hand in Switzerland. The price mirage: why do we pay the “fear premium”? The market reaction has been an emotional rollercoaster in the last 24 hours: Tuesday’s mirage: Initially, when the progress in Geneva became known, the price of oil fell. The barrel of Brent fell 1.8% (to $67.36) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 1%. The markets “bought” the hope of peace. Today’s reality, Wednesday: The trend has reversed. Prices are recovering and rising again. As explained in OilPricethe traders have reevaluated the situation: the final agreement seems distant and the physical closure of the strait, although partial, is a tangible reality today. As Sugandha Sachdeva points out, analyst cited by Reutersthe market is experiencing a “technical rally” because doubt dominates the scene. Although 82% of the crude oil that passes through Hormuz goes to Asia (China, India, Japan), oil is a global market. If there is a lack of supply in Asia, those countries will bid for the crude oil available in other regions, making the barrel more expensive for everyone. This has an immediate effect on Europe due to the “financialization” of energy. Gas and oil they have stopped being simple commodities to become financial assets that operate with high-speed algorithms. The volatility is such that “an early morning headline about Iran can alter the price of heating in Berlin before dawn.” The European Achilles heel The situation is especially delicate for the Old Continent. Europe is experiencing a “painful déjà vu“: fleeing from Russian dependence, has fallen into dependence on gas that arrives by ship (LNG). European gas reserves are at worrying lows (44% at the end of January) and vulnerability is maximum. This is where Hormuz plays a critical role beyond oil. As we have detailed in Xatakathe European Union looks to Qatar as a vital alternative for its gas supply, but “military tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz put that route at risk.” If the strait is closed, not only oil to Asia is blocked, but also the Qatari liquefied natural gas that Europe desperately needs to refill its warehouses for next winter. The short-term horizon is bleak. According to an estimate by Eurasia Group collected by OilPricethere is a 65% chance that the United States will launch a military strike against Iran in April if the current talks … Read more

To no one’s surprise, the fanciful tunnel that aspires to join the Strait of Gibraltar under the sea will not be ready by 20230

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The idea of ​​connecting Europe and Africa with a direct channel that allows us to do without ships and planes is so attractive, so damn sexy, that it takes more than a century warming the imagination of engineers. The same time they have been seeing the Strait of Gibraltar as the ideal point for a Spain-Morocco tunnel. After decades of idling, in recent years the project seemed gain momentumat least as far as the political sphere and the public interest. A few months ago even transcended that one of the leading companies in tunnel boring machines sees the infrastructure as technically viable. He hype around the tunnel it grew so much (and so strong) that there were those who trusted that the 2030 Soccer World Cupcelebrated mainly in Spain, Morocco and Portugal, it would serve you of ultimate lever. They were even read headlines that suggested that it would be executed with a view to 2030. To no one’s surprise, everything indicates that it won’t be like that. Strait Slopes. About a century ago, around 1929engineer Fernando Gallego Herrera a question was asked: Why not ‘suture’ the gap between Europe and Africa with an underwater tunnel in the Strait of Gibraltar? He was not the first to consider the issue, but he did so with a seriousness, a degree of technical level and a vocation, which gave visibility to the approach. Since then the idea of ​​creating a megastructure that allows Spain and Morocco to ‘touch each other’ has continued with comings and goings on the table. And not only on a theoretical level. The idea of ​​establishing a “fixed link” between Spain and Morocco even led to the creation of two entities: SECEGSAon the Spanish side, and the Societé Nationale d’Etudes du Detroit (SNED) on the Moroccan side. In recent years, the project has also attracted headlines that echoed the degree of political commitmentthe investment in studieshis time horizon and even his technical feasibilitya key aspect considering that we are talking about a structure of several dozens of kilometers in a difficult geological area. A small (big) step. In 2024 the project gave one step forwarde that (although very initial) was revealing. At the request of SECGSA, INECO commissioned a study for the “cross-strait fixed link project”. Its objective was basically to analyze “the feasibility” of excavations in the area, especially in the most critical points, such as the Camarinal Threshold that separates the Mediterranean and Atlantic basins. The task fell to a famous company in the sector: Herrenknechta leading German firm in the world of tunnel boring machines related, among other works, to the Brenner Tunnel or that of Saint Gotthard. Viable yes, although not cheap. The conclusions of their analysis have been known in recent months. First in October Populi Voice revealed that the German firm has confirmed that, although extremely complex, the Spain-Morocco pipeline would be viable from a technical point of view. The same media reported that the purpose of Spain and Portugal would be to decide in 2027 whether or not to tender an exploratory tunnel and provided a provisional calendar: just shaping the reconnaissance gallery would require between six and nine years. Regarding the cost of infrastructure, slid that the base bidding budget of the Spanish side would exceed 8.5 billion euros, a figure that includes everything from the base gallery to the tunnels, the terminal and other facilities. The sum is considerable but there is talk of diversifying its origin, including everything from community funds to formulas (concessions, fees) inspired by other megaprojects, such as the Eurotunnel wave Figueras-Perpignan line. Has there been more progress? It seems so. Although again in an initial phase still. At the end of November Populi Voice revealed again that, after the technical endorsement of Herrenknecht, SECEGSA entrusted INECO to complete the updating of the preliminary project of the structure. A deadline was even included: summer 2026. Around the same time, the Government of Spain and Morocco held a summit in Moncloa during which a memorandum was signed to “promote scientific cooperation in the study of seismicity and geodynamics in the Strait area.” In the statement released by Transport there is no mention of the tunnel, but there were those who saw in the agreement a positive nod for infrastructure. Question of deadlines. The tunnel is not only interested in its technical details and cost. Another key aspect is your calendar. Especially since already in the autumn, when the first touches of Herrenknecht’s analysis became known, slipped that the first progress of the project could arrive by 2030, the year of the Soccer World Cup in which Spain and Morocco participate as host countries. The coincidence of dates made it create expectation about how the Cup could influence the project and even if it would act as a stimulus for the subway. It was even raised if I could arrive on time. In recent days those expectations have received a jug of cold water. One more and unsurprisingIn fact. Why’s that? Because 2030 is four years away. And that is a ridiculously short time for a work that, beyond being viable on a technical and logistical level, is more than notable in complexity. First for its ambition and dimensions (more than 40 kmbetween the underwater and terrestrial section). Second because it must be developed in an area highly conditioned by its geology. Although there may be some progress towards 2030, Populi Voice mentioned in October sources close to the project that pointed to 2035-2040 as a “more realistic horizon” to see significant milestones. The idea would be to have gallery design recognition in June to put out to tender the infrastructure starting in 2027. As a reference, the construction of the Eurotunnel (50 kilometers) required some seven years (from 1988 to 19949 and Saint Gotthard (57 km) around 17. Moderating expectation. In recent weeks (and days) media like Huffington Post The reason either ACE They have echoed, citing the technical feasibility study, that the tunnel between … Read more

Yes, the Strait of Gibraltar is “about” to disappear. Within 50 million years, specifically

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In recent days, we have been able to see some voices that pointed to an almost apocalyptic event in our country: the Strait of Gibraltar this “about to disappear“, making two continents come together. The image in this case is quite powerful: the Mediterranean turning into a salt lake or completely disappearing before our eyes because its water intake would be cut off. However, when geologists say ‘soon’, they don’t mean next week. The reality. This new wave of fear over this fact arises as a result of a publication in the magazine Geology which is undoubtedly fascinating. In this case, geologists have used the capacity of supercomputers and 3D geodynamic models to see that under Gibraltar there is a subduction zone that right now she is ‘asleep’ and could wake up at any moment. The study, led by João C. Duarte together with researchers from the University of Mainz, addresses one of the great debates in plate tectonics: is the Gibraltar subduction zone dead? The discovery. For years science has pointed out that the sinking of the oceanic lithosphere under the Gibraltar Arc had stopped. However, the authors have applied new computer simulation techniques with the 3D ‘gravity-driven’ model to be able to reproduce the evolution that the western Mediterranean will follow where this strait is located. This is something fundamental, since the ancient models had us quite limited, but with technology you can see the processes over millions of years. The result of what was seen is quite clear: subduction is not dead, but is in a period of ‘rest’ or ‘silence’. Although the model believes that at some point this is something that will be activated or unblocked again. The future of the Atlantic. Something that must be clear is that the oceans are not static, but rather follow what is known as the Wilson Cycle. According to this model, the Atlantic is a young ocean that is expanding right now. But like everything in this life, it is doomed to die, just as happened in the past with the Tethys ocean, which is the ancestor of the Mediterranean Sea. However, for this to occur, subduction zones need to be activated where the tectonic plate sinks under another. breaking plates. The problem is that breaking a tectonic plate to start this subduction process is mechanically very difficult. The solution proposed by this team is that this area already exists in the Mediterranean, and its effect will spread to the west, crossing the Strait and invading the Atlantic. This is something that would give something called the ‘Atlantic Ring of Fire’, analogous to the famous Pacific beltcharacterized by volcanoes and earthquakes. When will this occur? This is where the important nuance comes in that must be taken into account when we talk about something in geology happening ‘soon’. According to this simulation, the current phase of inactivity will last for some time yet. But not a few days, but the propagation of subduction towards the Atlantic will gain traction in 20 million years and the development of the new subduction system can be delayed up to 50 million years. Saying that the Strait is “about to disappear” based on this study is like saying that the Sun is about to go out because it has “only” fuel left. 5 billion years. It is true on the scale of the universe, but irrelevant to our daily lives. Why it is important. Beyond the time it will take for this to occur, this model demonstrates how subduction zones can migrate from dying oceans like the Mediterranean to expanding oceans like the Atlantic, helping us understand how the Earth has been shaped throughout its history. Images | Malcolm Ketteridge In Xataka | Cádiz has decided to prepare for something that has happened five times in 7,000 years: its destructive potential justifies it

The oil ships are changing route to avoid the Ormuz Strait. Who will pay the detour: We

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Hostilities between Israel and Iran have reached a new peak of tension. The impact has not been expected: The price of oil rises and all looks point to the Ormuz Strait. Through that narrow step it circulates almost a fifth of the world crude, and although it has not been blocked, the tension is already altering routes, more than transportation and raising the pressure on the global energy market. A global bottleneck. The Ormuz Strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabic Sea, and is under the control of Iran. Only in 2024, more than 1.4 million barrels daily on ships were transported. According to Bloombergalso manages about 27% of the global oil liquefied gas flow (LPG). A partial or total obstruction It would directly affect energy powers such as China and India, as well as Iran, which has the third largest oil reserve on the planet. An unprecedented climb. Amid the registration of the conflict, many shipowners have begun to avoid the area or demand much higher risk premiums to cross it. According to Financial Timesthe result has been a vertiginous rise in charter prices. According to Clarksons Research figures cited by the British media, the daily rate to rent a VLCC (Vary Large Crude Carrier) that transports 2 million barrels of crude oil from the Gulf to China jumped from $ 19,998 to $ 47,609 in just a week. And not only oil transport has been increased: tank ships that transfer refined products, such as gasoline and diesel, have also doubled their rates, reaching more than $ 51,000 daily on that same route. The gas feels the impact. The tension has caused a slight fall in maritime traffic in the area, and some countries have begun to take precautions. Catar, through his state company Qatarenergy – the world’s largest exporter in the world – officially recommended to its vessels, care to cross the Strait, being the first measure known by an energy producer of the Gulf, According to Bloomberg. The tension is intensified. Iran, under international sanctionsuse a “ghost fleet”: ships that operate outside the international regulatory system, without valid insurance or security certifications. This not only represents a legal risk, but also operational. On June 17, Petrolero Front Eagle, of the Norwegian Frontline company, collided with one of these ships just after leaving the Gulf, According to Reuters. That same day, two other oil tankers collided and even caught fire, while two others were approached by Iranian vessels, which led to a “maximum alert” in the area. According to Richard Fulford-Smith, director of the firm Eden Ocean, cited by the Financial Timessome oil buyers are opting for suppliers other than Iran who use regulated vessels. This is pushing the demand towards the legitimate fleet and further increases the global rates. And now what? Uncertainty has already pushed some companies to redirect their routes outside the Persian Gulf, despite the additional cost. China and India could increase their purchases to suppliers such as Saudi Arabia or Russia, which do not depend on the Strait. So, some vessels are demanding higher risk premiums to cross the area, while others prefer to avoid it completely. For its part, United States has begun to reinforce its military presence. Can there be a real closure? Although there has been no official closure of the Strait, the tension has raised the fears that it may occur. Oxford Economics has recently warned In Bloomberg that the price of the Brent barrel could reach $ 130 if a total blockade occurs. And the most worrying: an eventual risk premium could be maintained even after a reopening. For now, the flows continue, but with greater caution and an increasingly dense naval presence. Energy risk. The Ormuz Strait is still open, but fear of a block is more present than ever. For now, the flow of crude and gas continues, although conditioned by a conflict that threatens to spread. The tension has not paralyzed trade, but has more expensive. And that, in the energy market, is enough to light alarms. Image | Pexels Xataka | A fear has taken over the world oil industry: the closure of the Ormuz Strait by Iran

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