predicted

Elon Musk and Sam Altman predicted that AI will force the establishment of a universal basic income. The United Kingdom is already considering it

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The main economic organizations in the world they don’t agree in their forecasts about what the real impact of the arrival of AI will be in the economic and labor sphere. A report The World Economic Forum estimated that AI will create 170 million new jobs. The problem is that until that happens, it will destroy about 92 million jobs. The US Senate consider that some 100 million jobs could be destroyed. Elon Musk and Sam Altman have repeated on several occasions that, to minimize this impact on society, it will be necessary to implement a universal basic income. In the United Kingdom, the government is debating measures to protect workers with the same idea. Millionaires ask for a basic income. Some of the top AI millionaires, such as Elon Musk, have predicted that universal basic income will be a reality in a future dominated by AI. While it is true that Musk’s vision is based on a vision more optimistic about the future in which “work will be optional” and it will not be necessary to save for retirement, the millionaire does not deny that universal income will be a necessary instrument to achieve it. Along the same lines, although with a more realistic vision, the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, has funded studies on the effects of universal basic income in a scenario of job destruction and how this income helps recipients return to work train for new jobs. Companies do not need human labor. In one your blog postDario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, warned that AI will have an “unusually painful” impact on the labor market. “AI is not a substitute for specific human jobs, but rather a general job substitute for humans,” the manager wrote. For this reason, this mechanism is increasingly seen as a transition instrument that allows employees laid off due to the arrival of AI to retrain to re-enter the labor market. A systematic review of the Department of Economics of the University of Huelva on more than 50 empirical casespoint out that universal basic income improves spending on basic needs without participants stopping looking for work, so it will be a way for employees to train for new jobs. jobs created by AI. The UK Government is debating it. In an interview for Financial TimesJason Stockwood, UK Investment Minister, has revealed that within the Government “it is definitely being talked about.” The minister noted that “without a doubt, we are going to have to think very carefully about how to smooth the process of disembarking those industries that disappear, through some type of UBI and some type of lifelong learning mechanism so that people can retrain.” According to published BloombergMorgan Stanley declared a net job loss of 8% in the UK in the last 12 months due to AI, the highest among large economies. Which explains the concern of the British executive to begin evaluating formulas that cushion this impact. A lifeline to keep them afloat. Unlike Musk’s “optimistic” vision, British representatives do not see the arrival of AI as a liberating element that makes work optional, but as a problem that will temporarily leave millions of workers who will need help unemployed. So declared it Sadiq Khan, mayor of London, concerned about the high rate of “white collar” unemployment that can cause the arrival of AI in a city like London. Liz Kendall, Secretary of Technology of the United Kingdom, spoke along the same lines, assuring that, although it is true that more jobs will be created than will be lost, there will be a transition period in which AI will be “a weapon of mass destruction of jobs. We will not leave people and communities to fend for themselves,” collected Guardian. The million-dollar question: who finances that income? It is easy to predict that universal basic income would be a solution for those who do not have a job to return to because AI has automated it. However, something more complicated will be determining who will finance that basic income. Bill Gates already gave some clues almost a decade agoensuring that they should be their own companies that use robots in their processes those that pay for that subsidy “if a robot replaces the work of a human, that robot must pay taxes like a human.” Ioana Marinescu, economist and associate professor of public policy at the University of Pennsylvania consider that taxing technology companies could slow down their implementation at the local level, so that this transformation process it would be more progressive increasing that transition period that would give time to the labor market to adapt. In Xataka | AI and its impact on the labor market: how the perception of its arrival varies by country, explained in a graph Image | Unsplash (Alexander Gray, enrico bet)

Michael Burry just shorted NVIDIA. All good except because he was the one who predicted the 2008 real estate bubble

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Michael Burry, the well-known investor and fund manager who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, has recently shown his bearish positions against NVIDIA and Palantir just after launching on social networks a warning about excess optimism in the market. Warning which the Bloomberg media has qualified ‘cryptic’, for several reasons. The movements, made known in regulatory documents filed on Mondayhave reopened the debate on whether artificial intelligence is generating a speculative bubble. What exactly has Burry done. His investment fund, Scion Asset Management, has bought put options (puts) worth $186.5 million against NVIDIA and $912.1 million against Palantir, according to mandatory filings with the SEC. These options benefit if the stock price falls. Burry also took bullish positions (calls) in Pfizer and Halliburton, two stocks that have underperformed the market this year. Why does it matter? Burry is not just any investor. Its history is marked by having bet short against the US real estate market two years before the 2008 crashenduring criticism from his investors until Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and his fund multiplied its profits. His story inspired the film ‘The Big Bet‘. Having gained that fame, when Burry bets against something, the markets pay attention, although his track record is not infallible, as he has been wrong in the past with other bubble predictions. Click on the image to go to the post The context of their movements. Days before these positions became known, Burry broke two years of silence on social networks with a disturbing message: “Sometimes we see bubbles. Sometimes you can do something about it. Sometimes the only winning move is not to play,” accompanied by an image of his character in the film. On Monday night he posted again, this time sharing a Bloomberg chart about concerns about circular financing between OpenAI, NVIDIA and other AI companies. Market reactions. Palantir shares fell more than 10% following the news, even though the company had just raised its annual revenue guidance. NVIDIA also fell by up to 2.9%. Palantir CEO Alex Karp responded in an interview with CNBC calling the idea of ​​shorting against companies like Palantir and NVIDIA, which he says are doing “noble tasks,” “crazy.” The bubble debate. For months, many investors have expressed concern about whether the AI ​​boom is being artificially sustained. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned recently told CNBC that “there are many things that look like bubbles,” although he clarified that bubbles do not usually burst until the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy. According to its “bubble indicator”, approximately 80% of market gains are concentrated in large AI-related technology companies. An important nuance. It’s not entirely clear whether Burry is betting directly on the downside or whether these options are part of a more complex strategy to protect other investments. And just as share Bloomberg, regulatory filings only reflect long positions, so if you were using these puts as a hedge for other investments, we wouldn’t know. The curious thing is that its first quarter presentation did include a note explaining that puts “could be used to cover long positions”, but the third quarter presentation does not say anything about it. Scion’s recent history. This is not the first time Burry has bet against NVIDIA. During the first trimester He has already liquidated almost his entire portfolio of listed shares and bought put options against the chipmaker. However, it has also achieved success: in the third quarter it closed positions in Alibaba (with a 36.5% profit), Estée Lauder (27%), ASML Holdings (45.7%) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (10.8%). Canary in the mine or false alarm? The question on Wall Street is whether Burry is once again detecting a bubble before anyone else or if he is wrong this time. NVIDIA is up 54% this year until reaching a capitalization of 5 billion dollarswhile Palantir has soared 173% thanks to its expansion in AI-related businesses. Valuations are high, but both companies continue to grow and expand their business. Be that as it may, if there is a bubble, we will find out in the worst possible way: when it bursts. Cover image | Solen Feyissa and ‘The Big Short’ In Xataka | The geopolitical irony that we are experiencing in the chip war has an unexpected beneficiary: Russia

20 years ago someone predicted that the iPod would end up being irrelevant to the arrival of smartphones: it was Bill Gates

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When it comes to technological innovation, the real triumph It is not to get a supervent productbut be able to advance what will be the one that will be sold the most One and even two decades later. That talent is the one that has made many founders of large technology today are among the Greater fortunes in the world. In May 2005, with the iPod selling as churros and revolutionizing the way of listening to music, Bill Gates Auguró In an interview to a German medium that, a few years later, The iPod was going to be irrelevant. Although for those years, many interpreted His words like agoreras And the result of Microsoft’s inability to deal with the success of the iPod, Gates gave in the nail. The launch of the iPhone in 2007 and the arrival of the smartphones meant the First nail in your coffin. Bill Gates saw him come. Microsoft let him escape In your interview for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, The technological millionaire refined his crystal ball from the technological sector. Two years before the launch of the first smartphone as we know it today, predict what the mobile Two decades later. “The mobile phones market is strategically fundamental. More and more functions will be integrated into a single device, and this requires software solutions. The perspective of having all relevant functions in a single device will be irresistible for consumers,” Gates said in 2005. With that statement, Microsoft’s founding millionaire gave in the nail with What was going to happen in the next decade with the development of the smartphones industry. However, in addition to seeing them coming, companies must be able to position in the right place for Take advantage of those predictions And that, with Steve Ballmer already in front of the company doubting success From the business model that the iPhone anticipated, it was the great pending subject for Microsoft. Despite the Windows Phone effortsthe huge mobile software market that Gates predicted was going to stay In Google’s hands and Apple with their respective operating systems, while Microsoft was relegated to a Minority market share with an operating system that did not convince. Ipod fall predicted, not the success of the iPhone “I do not believe that the success of the iPod can be sustained in the long term, however good Apple is. I think you can establish parallels with computers: here also Apple used to be extremely strong with its Macintosh and its graphical user interface (similar to the current iPod) and then lost their position. Consumers want more options and get them because there is a lot of innovation in this area,” Gates said in 2005. Again, he accounted for 100% in what consumers would require mobile devices in the next decade, and the iPod was going to fall short. However, again, and despite the adequate forecast of the millionaire, Microsoft He could not find his space neither Take advantage of your strengths. Instead, Apple not only responded to demands from your customers integrating the functions of the iPod into the iPhone for make it more versatilebut took advantage of the app store to Expand your functions opening a door to millions of applications. In this way, it was Apple who took advantage of the premise that, very rightly, had announced Bill Gates. In Xataka | Bill Gates’ first business was a failure: there he learned everything he needed to build the Microsoft empire Image | Flickr (World Bank Photo Collection), Xataka

In 1999, a manga predicted that Japan would suffer a great cataclysm in 2025. And now there are tourists canceling their trips

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Samantha Tang is a yoga teacher, is 34 years old, resides in Hong Kong and is in love with Japan. So much so that since the Pandemia ended, he tries to visit the country once a year. Until recently, August was planned on the beaches of Wakayama80 km from Osaka. “I had,” in the past. Despite his passion for Japanese culture, Tang has recognized the CNN that he will postpone his plans for a peculiar reason: “Everyone talks about an earthquake.” Your case is not unique. Japan has found that a surprising number of tourists are canceling their trips to the country for fear of suffering a natural disaster. The most curious thing is not that “frightened” of tourists, but what has unleashed it. Behind psychosis is not the government, a seismological organism, a team of physicists and geologists or a revolution, but a manga comic. THE KEY: A 1999 comic. If Tang has rethink his next trip to Japan, just like others Assiduous and passionate travelers of Japanese culture is largely by a comic released a few years ago. To understand it you have to go back to 1999, when Ryo Tatsuki published ‘WATHI GA MITA MIRAI’ (‘The future I saw’), a manga in which the author talks about prophetic dreams. The work could pass without sorrow or glory through the libraries of the country if it were not because in it Tatsuki predicted a great disaster that would occur in March 2011, month and year in which Japan suffered A great earthquake With thousands of dead and injured. That coincidence gave a huge reputation to the comic. He began to talk about him on social networks, he commented on TV programs and his specimens were revalued. And why does it matter now? The work ended up becoming so famous that the Asta Shinsha publishing house signed Tatsuki to publish a new version, a “complete edition” that was launched in 2021 and ended up becoming a bombing. The company ensures that in total more than 960,000 copies. The book has also been published in Chino and has reached other points in Asia in which it has become popular, such as Thailand or Hong Kong. The point is that this new enlarged version includes a prediction that has shaken Japanese tourism and has put on guard not a few travelers in Asia, especially superstitious. 2025. The comic ensures that “the real disaster will arrive in July 2025” (an idea that includes on its own cover) and leaves Sound passages as the following: “I dreamed with a great disaster. The waters of the Pacific Ocean south of the Japanese archipelago will rise.” Such prophecy (of course) has no scientific support and the author herself has recognized in An interview with Mainichi Shimbun that people should act “taking into account the opinion of experts”; But that has not avoided that the influence of manga (and its prophecy) has spread. A manga … And something else. Although Tatsuki’s comic has played a decisive role is not the only thing that explains that the fear of a natural disaster has downed (and remote) apart from tourists who planned to travel to Japan this year. The ball has been enlarged after an alleged “psychic” Japanese predicted that an earthquake would hit Tokyo’s bay April 26 (something that obviously did not happen) and Qi Xian Yua Feng Shui teacher with some impact on Hongkonese TV, will advise people to stay away from Japan. If that is added the social networks speaker, the result that I commented Tang With the CNN: “Everyone talks a lot about an earthquake.” “It is better to avoid it. It will be very problematic if an earthquake occurs,” coincides Oscar Chu, another Hong Kong traveler, who usually visits the country of the rising sun several times a year but has decided to rethink his 2025 trip. Beyond the prophecies. Predictions and prophecies on the margin, the truth is that Japan is located in an area of ​​special seismic activity, the Fire belt Del Pacífico, already throughout the last decades, has suffered earthquakes such as the one that hit the Kanto region in September 1923, the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji, Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku (2008) or that of 2011, which caused damage mainly at the northern end of the country. At the beginning From this same year he suffered another in the southwest area, although with a rather lower intensity, of magnitude 6.9. Not long ago Japan issued Another alert and the government He has recognized that there is a high probability that an earthquake shakes the Nankai pit (located to the south of the country) throughout the next three decades. TO mid -April Even the Chinese embassy encouraged its travelers to take precautions. Reality, like They recognize the authorities Japanese, is that “with current knowledge it is difficult to predict an earthquake specifying date, time and place.” How has it affected tourism? Although it is difficult to anticipate the Ladies, the fear climate largely fed by the Tatsuki comic, it is being felt in the Japanese tourism sector. Especially in demand from other points in Asia, such as China, Thailand or Vietnam, important markets for the country. WWPKG travel agency, based in Hong Kong, He has assured to the CNN that the reservations to visit Japan during Holy Week fell to half. And forecasts for the coming months are not better. Greater Bay Airlines, an Hong Kong airline, He has chosen directly For reducing their services with the Japanese region of Sendai and the city of Tokushima, cutting both in a weekly frequency. The reason: a drop in demand between rumors of an upcoming disaster in Japan that add to the economic uncertainty generated by the tariff war initiated by the United States. A BOOM SECTOR. The big background question is how this suspicion will affect the growing tourism sector of Japan, which has been moving in historical figures and has even generated tensions in the busiest points, such as the surroundings of the Mount … Read more

Of course ‘the Simpsons’ also predicted the great blackout of Spain. At this point you have stopped having merit

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Any relevant event in the history of humanity in recent decades It has previously appeared in ‘The Simpsons’. It is a phrase made, almost a meme that has acquired the category of popular wisdom and that is counted between the oldest collective knowledge samples of the digital era. Of course, Monday’s blackout in Spain and Portugal has become part of the long list of ‘The Simpsons’ predictions: it is neither very tight nor very accurate, but that does not prevent the myth from continuing to fatter. The blackout in ‘The Simpsons’. A couple of episodes that make supposed reference to the Backman last Monday. In ‘The last day of Springfield’, issued in 1998the city runs out of light, with traffic lights and unusable phones, and the nuclear plant where Homer works. Of course, chaos and anarchy take over the streets, something that did not happen here. Besides, In 2023 it was issued The episode ‘How beautiful is to pipify it’, where Springfield suffers a blackout for a fire in the nuclear plant. Here the consequences are almost apocalyptic, and Lisa tells the story in the distant future, explaining that the city lights candles every year to commemorate the events. The explanation of the prophecy. Either simple: These two blackouts do not make any reference to Spain or to the date on which it occurred. Simply, they are blackheads that end up leading to the Apocalypse, a trope of science fiction that have exploited recent series such as ‘Blackout’ or ‘The collapse’, or the movie ‘Leave the world behind’, but which we have also seen in very previous films: ‘The domino effect’ is one of the most notorious, but there are also based on real blackouts, such as ‘Blackout in New York’ or ‘Summer of Sam’ of which the American city suffered in 1977. Why ‘The Simpsons’ always succeed. According to Matt SelmanExecutive producer of the series, it is a mixture of knowing how to use the probabilities, historical knowledge and the study of human trends. The scriptwriters investigate in the past and extrapolate, until they end up. Or in another way more simpsonian, study and satirize “the stupidities of the past” to anticipate their repetition. They are logical extrapolations to which the impressive longevity of the series is added, which only multiply the possibility of coincidences, which is known as “Large numbers law“: The more episodes there is, the more likely the apparently unlikely becomes. When the phenomenon began. The meme began to popularize in the middle of the first decade of this century. Without a doubt, the first great impact of the series was the alleged prediction of the attacks of the Twin Towers. It was in the episode of 1997 ‘New York City vs. Homer Simpson ‘, where a brochure with number 9 appears and the twin towers forming a 11. It was interpreted as a reference to 11-S, although The explanation is very simple: The two towers together resemble a 11, the chance is that the attacks were on that date, and not to guess ‘The Simpsons’. Predictions for all tastes. Since then, ‘The Simpsons’ have predicted the future, and the truth is that sometimes the coincidences are stupid. In season 11, for example, the presidency of Donald Trump was mentioned, and in 10, the purchase of Fox by Disney (clear examples that the predictions are possible if an acute satirist observes carefully observes the signs that the current one sends). The complete list is virtually infinite: smartwatchesthe video calls, the performance of Lady Gaga in the Super Bowl, the Higgs Boson formula (amazingly close to the real), the three -eyed fish in the contaminated waters of Springfield, and a highly contagious epidemic that begins in Asia. We want fictions to explain it to us. We already told it A collation of the ‘Blackout’ series and how your search has become a trend after the real blackout: our thought is structured to look for significant patterns and connections between facts, even when these are the result of chance. These patterns help us explain what we do not understand or the phenomena that are rationally inconceivable or surpass us, and are marked by narratives, series and movies. And that ‘The Simpsons’ anticipate incomprehensible phenomena (such as the 11-S attack or Donald Trump’s triumph) helps us to rationalize them. Header | Disney In Xataka | Disney+ has had an idea: to broad

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