geopolitics Archives

It’s geopolitics. And China goes with the accelerator to the table

March 19, 2026 by usatoday24

When commercial 5G was taking its first steps in 2018, China was already talking of the next generation. The Asian giant saw very early that 6G would be a strategic element and got to work to dominate the conversation before its rivals. Because this is not about playing with less latency at a cloud game or download data faster. It is about having frontier technology before the rival. Strategic 6G. Since the middle of the last century, China has had something known as the ‘Five Year Plan’. It is a roadmap that sets out the objectives to be developed and achieved over a period of five years. Everything goes into it: energy, economy, society, technology and the environment, and it represents an organizational chart to coordinate policies that make the set objectives possible. In the 14th Five-Year Plan, the focus was on developing technologies that would allow China to be self-sufficient in semiconductors and digital technologies such as 6G. Time has passed and we have been able to see enormous progress during this time (especially in semiconductors), and now the new development plan has just been published in which we want to strengthen that sovereignty, but where two key objectives are framed: AI and 6G as a lever for economic growth. Calendar. The new roadmap defines the objective for the period 2026-2030, but the country has been preparing the ground for years. Huawei, already in 2019, He pointed out that they were testing 6G internally and that it was considered that it would not be until the end of the next decade when it would begin to be deployed commercially. The moment is approaching and steps have been taken. In 2020, China deployed what was considered the world’s first 6G satellitein 2022 experimented with sending data packets of one TB per second from a kilometer away, and in 2023 we learned that military uses were also being analyzed. For example, vibration analysis in water to detect even smaller submarines and drones in the open sea from the air. In the middle of last year, the state media CCTV commented that China’s objectives with 6G were being met as planned, highlighting, again and as they do every time they make a communication on the subject, the country’s leadership in this field. And… for what? China wants the world to know that are very actively developing this technology. And the big question is… do we need 6G? And here there is a big mistake: thinking that 6G is a technology for users. Obviously, consumer devices capable of having connections of these speeds will be essential for applications, for example, of artificial intelligence that are not calculated at the local level, but 6G is not so much for mobile phones but for the global network. From the same CCTV statement it is detailed that “6G is more than a communication technology.” This is something to drive more complex devices, smart terminals and new generations of sensors. Speeds above 100 Gbps are targeted with a delay of less than a millisecond (in 5G, the figures are about 1Gbps) and this will benefit the remote manipulation of devices, the number of simultaneous connections and tasks that require total precision, such as “swarms” of robots working in the field and coordinated by artificial intelligence. This sounds like science fiction, but recently Samsung presented its plans to transform its factories by 2030. Robots will be the workforce and the brain will be the AI. In its own updated five-year plan, China emphasizes the development of ’embodied AI’, that “robotics with AI” as one of the pillars of the country’s technological development. Everyone wants to lead. The country detailed that “the future 6G will not only be a mobile communication network, but a new generation of mobile information.” But of course, with all the range of possibilities that something like this opens up, and with how important it can be for an accelerated and massive deployment of robots, Physical AI and even of the remote computing in data centersno country wants to miss the train. Because China has giants like Huawei, but South Korea has SK Telecom and Samsung. Both have already expressed their intention to start conduct short-term technology tests with an ambitious goal: to have a functional 6G network by 2028. Japan is also in that raceEurope (which missed out on 5G) He doesn’t want things to repeat themselves. with 6G and the United States, whose current president already said in 2019 that I wanted 6G for yesterdayis also in garlic. A basic problem. My colleague Laura points out in Xataka Mobile that China wants to win the 6G battle before the battle for 6G begins, but although it is evident that they are in it and they lead patent applications worldwide (as has already happened thanks to Huawei with 5G), as users… we say again that the thing will take a while to start. At least in Europe. In a report last year, Ericsson, which is a communications giant, He pointed out that there is a basic problem: While competitors have deployed the millimeter band, most European countries have prioritized medium and low bands. More coverage, less speed, and although soon it will be time to talk about 6G as a current technology, the 5G has been with us for more than six years, and it is still taking its first steps. And if Europe wants to be a reference in robotics, AI and new technologies, it will have to start deploying towers as they are already doing in other regions. Pexels (edited with Gemini) In Xataka | Qualcomm believes that 6G will be the definitive network for AI and has already set a date: the reality is that 5G is still in its infancy

has become the Bet365 of geopolitics without any regulation

January 5, 2026 by usatoday24

The prediction markets like Polymarket or Kalshi They operate in a legal gray zone that allows betting on coups d’état and military interventions with insider information. A market without sheriff. The capture of Maduro has brought to the table the great problem of prediction markets: there is no mechanism to prevent insider information trafficking. On traditional stock exchanges this is a crime that is severely prosecuted, but these types of platforms operate in a regulatory limbo where betting with privileged or classified information is not punished, and in fact it is assumed to be part of the business model. The account that won more than $400,000 He invested 30,000 when the odds were around 6%. That movement occurred on Friday night, hours before Saturday’s operation. He timing Perfect is not a coincidence: it is the signature of someone who knows what is going to happen. Between the lines. The disturbing thing is not that someone has enriched themselves with classified information. It’s perfectly legal. Joe Pompliano, investor and podcaster, summed it up in X: “He insider trading “It’s not just allowed in prediction markets, it’s incentivized.” A perfect ecosystem has been created there to monetize confidential information without leaving a trace: Anonymity through Blockchain. Absence of identification requirements. Cryptocurrency transactions. The threat. The Maduro case opens up disturbing scenarios: What happens when a Pentagon adviser can make hundreds of thousands of dollars betting on military operations he himself plans? Or when a congressman gets rich anticipating legislation that he is going to promote? In traditional financial markets, the answer begins with ‘c’ and ends with ‘arcel’. At Polymarket this is just another day at the office and is even encouraged by the design of the system itself. Yes, but. Democratic Representative Ritchie Torres has announced a law to prohibit elected officials from participating in these markets. It’s a first step, for now nothing more than that. The elephant in the room is whether a society can allow markets where betting on coups or military interventions is carried out without any oversight. For years, these markets were niche. And when they got the 2024 presidential election right better than all the polls, They gained credibility (and attention) at once. Now the Maduro case shows that this newly gained prestige is based on a model that rewards having privileged information and allows speculation with life or death decisions without any limits. At stake. If prediction markets consolidate themselves as reliable thermometers of geopolitical events, and at the same time allow those who make these decisions to profit by betting on them, conflict of interest will be routine. The account that bet on Maduro has not bet on anything again at the moment, but the problem remains: as long as these markets operate without supervision, each international crisis will also be a business opportunity for whoever has the appropriate information. And that has consequences that go far beyond winning or losing money: An official could delay a diplomatic intervention so that his bet matures. A military advisor could push to advance an operation to get paid sooner. When geopolitical decisions are also opportunities for personal speculation, incentives are no longer aligned with the public interest. In Xataka | I don’t bet, I invest: Polymarket and company have sophisticated gambling addiction to the point of making it indistinguishable from “investing” Featured image | Polymarket, Xataka with Mockuuups Studio

It is a leap in Spanish sovereignty in spatial geopolitics

December 20, 2025 by usatoday24

In 1989, Spain boosted its space industry. Not to go to the Moon, but to guarantee its telecommunications capacity. This is how Hispasat and its fleet of geostationary satellites offering broadcast coverage of television, radio, broadband and connectivity in remote areas. In 2023 it was decided that Hispasat would be our own Starlink. It has been a huge failure has put Hispasat in an extreme situation. But since those satellites are not going to be wasted, there is someone who has already shown interest a few months ago: Indra. And it is the key piece for the Spanish company to become one of the heavyweights of European rearmament. The slap of Hispasat. We told it a few days ago. The resounding failure of the plan that sought to place Hispasat as the alternative to starlinkwhen technologically they are two totally different things, has been the condemnation. To face the transformation, it received public funds, money that it has had to return. The figures are scary: 22 million from public aid that have flown out of the company’s coffers. It has left them shivering. Indra enters the scene. Indra is a technology group specialized in defense, aerospace and advanced digital technologies. They are focused on the military industry, but not building tanks or ships, but rather the “brain” of the systems, as well as radars, surveillance services, electronic warfare either cyber defense. For a company like this, Hispasat is candy. And at the beginning of this year we already said that Indra was very interestedlaunching a 725 million euro offer that needed regulatory approval. Now, and as we read in Europa Pressthe Council of Ministers would have already authorized the purchase of 89.68% of Hispasat by Indra for 725 million euros. With this operation, Indra would control the communications satellites, but also Hisdesat. This is the branch of Hispasat military satellitesfocused on offering encrypted and secure communications. It is key in both military and government operations. Metamorphosis. The Government of Spain controls 28% of Indra’s capital, being the company’s main shareholder, so this approval is a mere procedure. But, if Hispasat was completely absorbed, Indra would experience a metamorphosis. If space is new battlefield (something that The United States, Russia or China are pushing), Spain must be there, and would be hand in hand with Indra systems. Because this space war is not just something from science fiction or satellites with machine guns like the ones France wants (or the ones it has China with robotic arms), but something we are already seeing in Ukraine. During the war with Russia, Starlinkwhich are communications satellites, were key to offering communications and cloud services, connecting troops, fighters and drones in real time without depending on anyone else. In Leonardo’s league. It is true that the latency of the Hispasat network is greater as it is at a higher altitude, but it is a first step. Additionally, it allows Indra to be more three-dimensional. The satellite network is added to its radar and command systems division, becoming a piece with more weight in the current turbulent geopolitical board. And, although he commented that this approval from the Government was a formality, it is not empty bureaucracy, but a declaration of intentions in the direction of industrial and military sovereignty, reinforcing its position within Europe like the French Thales or the Italian Leonard. Rearmament context. In the end, everything falls within a context in which Europe is seeing that it must stop depending on external agents for its defense and services. A few months ago, The European Commission called for rearmamentand different countries have already raised their military reindustrialization strategies (some giving some ‘face’ to finance infrastructure), but in all areas we are witnessing that the European Union has lost confidence in allied countries. The war in Ukraine or the tariffs have strained the relationship with the United States, and even in the aerospace industry we are seeing that, now, Europe is taking out the credit card to stop depending on the United States or Russia to launch things into space. And this move by Indra makes the company transcend from being one that provides systems to one that plays the role of architect of European defense. Images | Zarateman, In Xataka | ESA has taken a historic step to access the Moon autonomously: Argonaut, the first European lunar module

China has turned the technological geopolitics around with three plays. Western supremacy is being blurred

June 4, 2025 by usatoday24

China has been working with a very clear technological roadmap for years. Priority has not been to compete on equal terms with the West, but to reduce its exposure to other decisions. The strategy is not born with Trump’s sanctions or with Vetos to Huawei. He came from before, but that promoted it. And it continues its course. Why is it important. Who dominates the subjects imposes the rhythm, who manufactures chips has industrial autonomy and who trains AI models with billions of users can export technology. China is already at the three levels. In detail: → Raw materials China reinforces its position in the first link: access to strategic resources. It controls about 90% of rare earth processing, essential to manufacture all types of technology. The Ministry of Commerce has limited exports from Galio and Germaniowhich impacts key sectors such as solar panels, electric vehicles or radars. The European and the American industry They are not managing to find substitutes in the short term. And China, in addition to maintaining a national reserve for internal use, is regulating its exploitation with geopolitical criteria. → Semiconductors. After the western vetoes, the State assured mass resources to its national industry. Huawei, blocked by the United States, presented A 7 Nm chip manufactured by SMICwithout access to lithography EUV. It is not toe technology … but enough, at least for the moment. There are already patents to continue miniaturizing. The State Semiconductor Fund created a year ago Broken 50 billion dollars, and although total self -sufficiency is still far, the system is already working without access to the outside. → Ia. The great Chinese technology develop their own foundational models. Each has a different sector orientation, but everyone lives under the umbrella of the new national regulatory framework, which requires algorithms registration and validation. The result: more and more Chinese startups dedicated to AI (with brutal results such as Deepseek), and prioritization for direct application in public services, industry and education. What has happened. The sanctions borntoEron as a brake on Chinese development, but they have ended up being an accelerator. China reinforced its R&D centers, reorganized its patent system and gave state coverage to the most exposed technological. And the Ministry of Science and Technology prioritized concrete sectors defining specific objectives for AI, supercomputing and automation. In perspective. As we have told in numerous articles, China does not seek to replicate the western model, but to design their own aspiring to be self -sufficient and at the same time global provider. At least where the legislation allows you to sell. Huawei post-saunciones is a perfect example. Large Chinese technology do not compete for market share in the United States or Europe, but to influence Africa, Central Asia and Latin America, where their systems are already penetrating (ZTE, Huawei, Beidou…). And access to your solutions will be accompanied by your conditions. That includes software, infrastructure, etc. Between the lines. The strategy follows a sequential logic: Ensure resources. Guarantee industrial capacity. Consolidate leadership in innovation. Each phase depends on the previous one and each advance has political coverage. And now what. The next step will be to consolidate the model: AI with national identity, own standards and gradual international expansion. All with government support. In Xataka | Freeman Zhou in Unspash Outstanding image | China has proposed to be independent in all technologies. And for augmented reality it has “five dragons”

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