AEMET

While Laurence hits Spain, Aemet fears another four weeks of rain

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Just a few hours ago, the high impact storm Laurence was east of the Azores. Not anymore. And on his way to the east Three fronts have already been defined that are impacting the Iberian Peninsula (or are about to do so). After the little parenthesis of the weekend, the rain is back. And it seems that he plans to stay. Three fronts? The first, the warm (a hottest mass than what we have now on the country), is entering the Gulf of Cádiz and will leave heavy rains in the Guadalquivir valley. The second will be cold and will water much more water also entering the Southwest. And finally, an occlusive one will arrive (that is, a compressed mass between two others) that will be the coup of grace and the real problem when high accumulated and heavy rains. With the aggravating thing that, after hours and hours of rain, all drain systems will begin to be collapsed. Is it dangerous? In some areas it can become, yes. For example, As Álvaro Oliver explainsthe rains that will reach the central system “will clearly exceed 50 mm and even 100 mm at many points.” If we add to that the thaw that will occur, the situation can be complicated. And, beyond that, the rains They have no heavy to send. This is what Aemet tells. And, as we say, not only Laurence is going to leave “abundant rains in large areas of our country” and will breathe “temperate air” that will boost the thaw, is that “Wednesday will be a transition day between two storms: Thursday comes another with more rain “yet. Other? How long will this last? This question has two answers: the short is that we have no idea. We already know how variable the time in spring is. The long one, however, has a lot of crumb to analyze. Because If we look at ECMWF’s weekly modelsthe European weather model, we will see that the next four weeks appear with positive anomalies in rainfall. It is true that the one that has that most accentuated trend is this that we now start, but (always according to the model) the rainfall above normal can remain much longer than expected. Image | ECMWF | Sami Ullah In Xataka | If the question is when the rain is going to end, Aemet has bad news. Especially for Andalusia

If the question is when the rain is going to end, Aemet has bad news. Especially for Andalusia

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It has been raining in Andalusia since February 28. That is to say, As they said from Storm Málagathat is “15 consecutive days registering precipitation at some point.” But the thing does not end there, because it looks like this streak “could be extended for at least 8 more days.” What is happening in Andalusia? What is happening in Spain this March? The great Atlantic game. In recent days, Aemet Special fact emphasis In what we have been repeating for days: that a “anticyclone, displaced to northern Europe and another to the south of the Azores, (created) a wide corridor that allows the entrance of Atlantic storms from west to this.” On the one hand, the anticyclone to the north facilitates the circulation of these storms to low latitudes; On the other, the South Anticyclone facilitates the transport of humid and warm air from the Caribbean. Actually, it is nothing mysterious. In fact, it is A phenomenon relatively common that usually gives us great joys. What is happening now is that the pieces have conceded perfectly: the storms are powerful, they are well directed and the hall is lasting a more than considerable time. So much time that many farmers have already activated panic protocols. As we said a few days ago, “too much water suddenly creates problems.” The best example is Huelva: Strawberry crops can begin to rot (or infect with fungi) in full campaign. Yes, they are small problems if we compare them with the years of drought that we have been dragging, but They are problems after all. Problems that point out that, as usual, We do not have the necessary infrastructure nor well thought out plans. And what can we expect in the next few days? On paper and although it will continue raining in some areas of the country, the time time will give us a small truce. However, As Marta Almarcha points outthe latest updates suggest that new storms will arrive. The same Monday, without going any further, a new one will enter the southwest. And so again and again until at least next Friday (which is when). What we know from Monday. I would not want to close the subject without commenting what we know about the Borrasca on Monday; of Laurencethe twelfth storm of high impact of the season. Above all, because (in the Atlantic aspect) the rains can become very intense. In points of Huelva, Cádiz and the central system more than 100 l/m² can be collected in 24 hours. Again. We also have to keep in mind that all this water must be added a problem: the thaw. The subsidiary fronts of Konrad have left (or leave) enough snow in low levels. The rain will help melt that snow and that will be a “more problem” In the river flow. Image | ECMWF | Sami Ullah In Xataka | Aemet special notices are just the beginning: everything points to an extremely rainy March in Spain

The good news is that Aemet already knows when the Jana Borrasca will leave. The bad is that 10 more days of rain await us

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As of today, Monday, the BORRASCA JANA It will lose strength. But that does not mean that Aemet Go withdraw your notices by rains in half a country. And it is that the high -impact formation will continue with us generating instability, cloudy skies and generalized rainfall. Although, in reality, this seems only the beginning. Rain, rain and more rain. Although the eastern facade of the peninsula continues with His particular viacrucis (Especially in Alicante), the screws seem to have changed in the rest of the country: the largest accumulated will be in the south, both in the Atlantic and Eastern Andalusia aspect. Also in the central system. On the contrary, where the rains are less likely it is in the Cantabrian and the Northeast. In the Canary Islands there will be cloudy skies and scattered showers. But this will have an end … right? Of course he will have it, the problem is that we do not know when it will be. Jana is going to weaken And that, perhaps, we give us a little respite. But, as Aemet points out, “the rain will continue during the week of March 10 to 16”. After the borrasca jana“new fronts associated with Atlantic storms will sweep our country, with rainfall in large areas.” Again, the most abundant seems to be in the environment of the central and west system of Andalusia. How is this possible? A few days ago we counted that It was being established A huge blocking anticyclone between Greenland and Scandinavia. That was very good news because I was going to force the Atlantic storms to turn south. To this has been added something else: that the temperature of the surface water of the ocean is above the average and, thanks to the joint work between the blocking anticyclone and that of the Azores, an atmospheric river has been articulated that insuffes us with moisture from the Caribbean. The result is 10 days of generalized rains. That is to say, An unusually wet March. Is something of Holy Week know? This year, Holy Week falls between April 13 and 21. That is, there is a lot of time left. However, Aemet has published A climatological analysis. Unlike the predictions, what this type of analysis is investigated is the “standard time” for those days taking into account the historic. For example, According to the agency“In most of the southern peninsular half the average temperatures vary between 13 and 17 ºC” while “in the northern half we find lower values, with temperatures near the 9 ° C on the plateau and close to the 0 ºC in the summits.” Aemet The problem is that, as we can see in the superior graph, these “spring dates are characterized by their great climatic variability.” In recent years, temperatures have been high and, a priori, it is what we should expect. But there we have the year 2012 to show us that the situation can turn around when we least expect them. Image | ECMWF In Xataka | Aemet special notices are just the beginning: everything points to an extremely rainy March in Spain

Aemet already knows when the storm that is soaking Spain is over. The problem is that another act comes another

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Precipitation has returned to the east and southeast of the Peninsula. A Episode of instability whose ending to see the meteorologists. Of course, there are still days of heavy rains in much of the country. Last special notice. Yesterday Tuesday, the State Meteorology Agency (AEMET), updated its Special notice of adverse phenomena associated with storms that these days suffer different points of the Peninsula. In the notice, the agency, in addition to accounting for the weather forecasts, addressed the probable evolution of the event in the remainder of the week. Changes, perhaps not what we expected. Aemet’s forecasts indicate a trend change as of Friday. Of course, this change in the atmospheric situation will not imply the end of the rains. The reason is in An Atlantic storm which will become responsible for instability over the weekend. What will change will be the areas where the rains are concentrated. On Friday the instability will be reduced in the east peninsular, while in the west will begin to notice the arrival of the new storm. Aemet points out, of course, that uncertainty is high regarding this new meteorological phenomenon. Meanwhile… Waiting for the arrival of the change in trend, Aemet warns of the persistence of the rains. According to their forecasts For today, “strong and/or persistent rainfall” is expected that will affect a good part of the east and southeast peninsular, as well as the environment of the central, narrow system and areas of Malaga, the agency indicates. Accumulated rainfall could occur in Castellón, Valencia, Murcia and Almería. In some areas of these provinces, the 100 millimeters could be exceeded. The notices Yellow by rains extend for a good part of the east and southeast, while the orange notices are concentrated in the provinces of Tarragona, Castellón and Valencia. Few changes. The situation on Thursday will be similar, with “strong and/or persistent rainfall” in the central system and especially in Valencia, Castellón, Tarragona and surrounding areas. In some of these areas, 150 mm could be exceeded. They are also possible, adds the agency, the “strong showers” in the prelital of Catalonia and Malaga, as well as indoors in the southeast peninsular. The notices For rains they will be similar to Wednesday, with various areas of the east and southeast in yellow warning and a good part of the provinces of Tarragona, Castellón and Valencia under orange warning. A partial relief. The arrival of a new storm in a practically consecutive way implies that in many of the areas affected by rain the relief could only be temporary. It is still early to know to what extent and for how long this new storm will affect the Peninsula, so it will be essential to pay attention to weather predictions throughout the week. In Xataka | Saharian dust clouds reach Spain and Europe. The other problem is what accompanies them Image | ECMWF

In the middle of a huge “train of storms”, AEMET has just pronounced the most anticipated word of winter: snow

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The rain no respite and he’s not going to give it. Neither the rain, nor the winds, nor the snow. While the storm Herminia full of red notices the entire northwest part of the peninsula, the forecasts have us all looking at an Atlantic full of surprises. Among them, snow. What Herminia is doing. In recent days, the entire country has been revolving around Herminia. In some regions (such as Galicia) the intensity of the winds forced to divert flights and cancel trains. The worst, however, had not yet passed: this Monday will be the strongest day of the storm. 16 autonomous communities They have notices from the AEMET. Until Tuesday, Herminia will unfold a temporary more than considerable with wind, waves, rain and snow. But, as we said, Herminia is nothing more than the appetizer. According to predictive models, two new storms are going to cross the peninsula. The first will make its debut on the same Wednesday. In fact, on Tuesday a very cold air mass of polar origin will begin to enter the country. We talk about “temperatures at about 5500 meters altitude (500 hPa)”, explained Sergio Escama in Meteored. But the interesting thing is that we will notice it down here. What will we notice? The winter. Winter in its meteorologically pure state. From Wednesday the general drop in temperatures will be evident and snow will affect to the Cantabrian Mountains, the Pyrenees, the Central System, the Iberian System and other inland areas. The snow level is not clear yet, but is expected to be low. And that will be only the first of the post-Herminia storms. Because, according to AEMET modelsafter a very entertaining Wednesday-Thursday with the snow (and its problems); A busy weekend will follow. That is, the “storm train” extends as far as we can reliably see. This precision is important because, although right now there is a possibility that this second storm will be more intense than the previous ones, the time frame prevents us from being able to estimate its virulence accurately. What can we do? Luckily, The recommendations for now are the same: avoid unnecessary trips; prepare for the cold, wind and snow; and pay attention to weather and civil protection updates. We already know that this is one of the great paradoxes of snow: it is something as wonderful and fascinating as it is full of problems. Image | AEMET In Xataka | The best tips for a snow or hail storm

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