Historically, the fuel oil has been known in the oil industry as the “bottom of the barrel.” Typically cheap and underappreciated, this byproduct comes from the bottom of distillation towers, the equipment where crude oil is heated and split into multiple products. In fact, very often, this fuel cost less than a barrel of crude oil, and refineries sold it at a loss as it was a simple remnant of the process necessary to manufacture high-value products such as diesel.
However, as expert Javier Blas warns in your column for Bloombergthe Iran war has turned the industry upside down. That waste that no one wanted has become an ultra-expensive raw material overnight, which is bad news for the global economy. Despite being overshadowed by other distillates, the fuel oil plays an immense role in the modern world, driving container ships that act as the workhorses of globalization.
The breakup of a market at the limit. In the current conflict, all eyes they are set in the rises and falls of crude oil. However, the real drama is hidden in the physical maritime bunker markets, where the traditional relationship between the price of crude oil and refined products has been completely broken. With crude oil hovering around $100, the fuel oil It shouldn’t be much more expensive. In reality, it is trading at $140 a barrel in Singapore and almost $160 in the Emirati port of Fujairah.
A report of Lloyd’s List explains that the average price of the fuel oil of very low sulfur content (VLSFO) in the 20 main bunkering centers reached $1,005 per ton, double its pre-war cost and the highest figure since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For his part, analyst Clyde Russell warns in his column Reuters that, while crude oil futures are confident of a solution, prices for physical cargoes are sending signals of an impending crisis and a supply chain that is buckling under pressure.
The missing link. The key to this specific crisis lies in geography and geology. As Blas points outrefineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates produce 20% of all fuel oil sold internationally.
Added to this is a crucial geological factor: the crude oil from the Persian Gulf generates much more fuel oil than that of other regions. For example, when distilling a barrel of Saudi flagship crude oil (Arab Light), approximately 50% of what comes out is residue for fuel oil, compared to 33% left by US WTI crude oil. This explains why the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a death trap specifically for this byproduct.
The logistical panic. The real urgency is no longer just the price, but physical availability. The shipping industry has raised the alarm because supplies are critically low in Singapore and Fujairah, two of the world’s most important bunkering hubs. “If we do nothing, we risk ending up with dry supply points in Asia,” Vincent Clerc sharply warnedCEO of shipping giant Maersk. To avoid collapse, Maersk needs to be proactive and is transporting its own fuel around the globe to have the right amount in the right place, an unprecedented challenge that Clerc compares to the logistical juggle experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic.
On a day-to-day basis, the charter market is paralyzed. Scott Bergeron, CEO of Oldendorff Carriers, confess to Lloyd’s List that there are problems getting fuel quotes, and that “availability for April is a big question mark.” The operational consequences will be drastic:
- Global slowing: Ships will reduce their speed to conserve fuel.
- Port congestion: Massive congestion is expected in ports that still have reserves.
- Accelerated scrapping: Older and inefficient fleets could be forced to be scrapped due to the enormous costs.
Furthermore, according to Clyde Russell in your column for ReutersAsian refiners are cutting production, and countries like South Korea could restrict exports, pushing dependent nations like New Zealand into rationing measures.
The environmental dilemma. This severe lack of supply is even putting pressure on climate regulations. Given the suffocating lack of distillates, The Maritime Executive details that the regulators could be tempted to temporarily suspend IMO 2020 emissions regulations. This would allow ships to return to burning heavy fuel oil (HSFO) widely, freeing up ingredients for other critical sectors.
Meanwhile, ships already equipped with scrubbers (scrubbers) can still legally burn the cheaper HSFO. As the price gap between clean and dirty fuel widens, these shipowners are realizing massive savings; In fact, this price spread reached $189.50 per ton in Singapore.
The current crisis leaves no room for maneuver. As Javier Blas saysthe world has already spent its main lines of defense against this oil shock: compromised refineries have been avoided and strategic reserves have been emptied.
Looking to the future, the only variable capable of balancing consumption with a meager supply is the “destruction of demand” through suffocating prices. Ship fuel may come from the bottom of the barrel, but it has proven to have the ability to sink or keep afloat international commerce. Today, without a doubt, it has become the world’s main problem.
Image | Photo by william william on Unsplash
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