Venezuelas

The United States knows that Venezuela’s subsoil is full of rare earths. The big problem is that he doesn’t know where

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The announcement that American companies could access to Venezuela’s vast oil has reignited a much broader ambition of Donald Trump’s administration. Because the Latin American nation has something that Washington desperately seeks, something that China he has plenty. He crux It’s how and how much. Beyond crude oil. Yes, the “b” side of the North American “landing” in Venezuela also seeks to explore the mineral potential of the country as part of “the national security of the United States.” The experts they point out that, in addition to crude oil, there would be unverified reserves of critical minerals and possible large quantities of rare earths, key inputs for defense and technology. However, the lack of reliable data, doubts about economic viability and operational risks in areas with the presence of armed groups and mining illegality turn the objective into an enterprise. much more complex that the oil reopening itself, with significant environmental impacts associates to energy-intensive mining. The supply chain and the bottleneck. Even if the extraction obstacles were overcome, the decisive challenge appears in processing. The refining of rare earths is concentrated in more than 90% in Chinaa domain constructed for decades through subsidies, industrial expansion and lax environmental regulations. This position has made rare earths a sensitive point of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, with export controls that have highlighted the fragility of American supply chains. The consensus among analysts is that this industrial and geopolitical advantage cannot be reversed quickly, so new deposits without their own refining capacity would contribute little to short-term strategic resilience. Why it is important. It we have counted other times. The classification of “critical minerals” covers a broad set of raw materials essential for the economy and security, from aluminum and copper to a specific group of 17 elements known as rare earths, essential for high-performance magnets, advanced electronics and military systems. Although these elements are not scarce in the Earth’s crust, their extraction and refining are technically demanding and expensive. In the United States there are efforts to develop domestic capabilities, but start-up times are often measured in years or decades, which explains the temptation to look for external solutions that, in practice, rarely offer immediate results. Geological potential and structural limits. It happens that, unlike other countries with confirmed reserves, Venezuela does not appear in international lists as a relevant producer of rare earths, an explained absence for decades of opacity institutional during the governments by Hugo Chavez and Nicolás Maduro. Still, the country is believed to host deposits of coltan and bauxitesources of metals considered critical such as tantalum, niobium, aluminum and gallium. Projects like the Orinoco Mining Arc They sought to capitalize on that potential, but have been marked by illicit mining, lack of investment, a shortage of qualified labor, and a volatile regulatory environment that discourages international operators. A strategic mirage in the medium term. If you like, the final evaluation of the experts is clear: although the Venezuelan subsoil may hide valuable resources, its contribution to the security of supply of the United States it would be marginal on the near horizon. Without solid geological data, without security guarantees and without processing capacity independent of the Chinese circuit, Venezuela’s mineral interest seems more an extension of the geopolitical pulse than a practical solution, at least in the short term. In that context, the American bet faces a paradox: the country offers a lot on paper, but little that can be translated into real advantages over the next decade. Image | Mauricio CampelloRawPixel In Xataka | The US did not need to shoot to enter Caracas. All it took was an invisible weapon and unexpected “help” from Russia In Xataka | While the whole world looks at oil, Venezuela’s true treasure is hidden in the basements of London: its gold

The US has taken over Venezuela’s oil. The problem is that the package includes a gigantic debt with China

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The map of world power has been redrawn in just one week. The capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces is not just a regime change; is the birth of the “Donroe Doctrine”, a movement with which Washington seeks to consolidate an energy empire “from Alaska to Patagonia” to control 40% of world production. However, after the military euphoria in the White House, a dilemma of trillion-dollar proportions looms: the oil has been taken, but it is mortgaged, and China demands its bills. The collector at the door. Control of the largest reserves on the planet has put the US face to face with the great creditor of the Caribbean. According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP)the current exposure in a state of “limbo” is estimated at $10 billion, although other estimates by think tanks collected by the same medium raise the historical debt to more than 60,000 million, much of it structured under the “oil for loans” model. But how was this sum arrived at? China needed energy for its industrial rise and Venezuela needed cash. Under this premise, Beijing financed railways, power plants and more than 600 bilateral agreements. Now, the great fear of the Asian giant is that the new government in Caracas —protected by the Trump administration— invoke the doctrine of “hateful debt”. As Cui Shoujun explains in SCMPthis legal remedy would allow the loans to be repudiated, alleging that China’s money did not benefit the people, but rather financed the survival of the regime. It would be the perfect “legal pretext” to clean up the balance sheets before the American oil companies take the reins. The agony of the Chinese state companies and the shield of the “Teapots”. The anxiety in Beijing is not just political, it is corporate. As revealed by Bloomberggiants such as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) are carrying out damage assessments amid fears that decades of investments will evaporate. Nevertheless, according to information from Reutersthese companies still operate in the country through joint ventures such as Sinovensa, and control rights to reserves amounting to billions of barrels. However, China has an “ace up its sleeve.” A couple of months ago, they were absorbing 90% of measurable crude oil storage. Besides, as detailed by the Financial Timesmuch of the flow of Venezuelan crude oil arrived in China through the “teapots” (independent refineries), which bought the oil at steep discounts to avoid previous sanctions. By taking control of exports, the United States not only recovers crude oil, but also eliminates a key competitive advantage for the Chinese industry, raising its energy costs at a stroke. The technical paradox. Many wonder why Trump would risk so much for oil that seems “bad.” The answer is a necessary technical symbiosisAmerican and Spanish refineries (like Repsol’s) act as “stomachs” designed for heavy crude oil from Venezuela, which needs to be mixed with light oil from the fracking to produce diesel efficiently. However, the prize comes with a bill astronomical repair. The infrastructure is literally in ruins: loading an oil tanker today takes five days compared to the one day that was enough seven years ago, and the crude oil arrives “dirty” (with excess water and salt) due to lack of maintenance. Reconstructing the sector will require 10 billion dollars annually for a decade, to which is added the drama of natural gas: Venezuela today burns in “smoke” the equivalent of the consumption of all of Colombia due to pure technical negligence. The battle of the offices. Trump has taken control of the energy crown jewel, but has found himself with an astronomical repair bill and a Chinese creditor who won’t go away quietly. As the Financial Times warnsif the US decides to also suffocate supplies from Iran after this blow in Venezuela, China could see 20% of its cheap crude oil imports compromised, which would force Beijing into an unpredictable reaction. The real battle did not end with the capture of Maduro; It is just beginning in the offices of Washington and Beijing. Venezuela is the jackpot, but it is a prize that comes with fine print that could go bankrupt the financial balances of half the world. The oil era is not over, but the map of who controls it and who pays for it has been rewritten with blood and debt. Image | Luisovalles Xataka | The war in Ukraine has just met that of Venezuela: that means that its two invaders are facing each other

While the whole world looks at oil, Venezuela’s true treasure is hidden in the basements of London: its gold

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Perhaps the great treasure of Venezuela not oil. In fact, since the United States attacked Caracasa series of theories have begun to be heard loudly that have a common denominator: the greatest Venezuelan loot is thousands of kilometers from the nation, under the soil of the capital of the United Kingdom. The gold trapped in London. Yes, under the streets of the cityin the vaults of the Bank of England, remain immobilized about 31 tons of gold belonging to Venezuela, an asset that in 2020 was valued around 1.4 billion pounds and that today it is worth much more after the strong rebound of the metal price. The capture of Nicolás Maduro for the United States has returned This issue is brought to the international forefront, reopening a question that has been without a clear answer for years: who really has the right to control these reserves. Although global attention often focuses on Venezuelan oil, gold represents about 15% of the country’s foreign reserves and has become a key piece of a political, legal and geopolitical pulse that far transcends Caracas. Recognition and blocking. The origin of the blockage dates back to 2018after a disputed presidential election and the tightening of sanctions promoted by Trump during his first term. The United Kingdom, along with dozens of countries, stopped recognizing Maduro as legitimate president and, under pressure from the Venezuelan opposition, refused to authorize the repatriation of the gold, alleging the risk that it would be used to prop up an authoritarian regime or directly diverted. Added to this, as later revealed former national security advisor John Bolton, an express request from Washington for London to maintain the blockade, which placed the British central bank and the Government at the center of a battle that mixed international law, sanctions and diplomacy. Bank of England A judicial labyrinth. In 2020, Caracas went to court British to claim the gold, arguing that they needed those funds to deal with the pandemic. However, the process became complicated when Juan Guaidó, then recognized by London As interim president, he also claimed ownership of the reserves. The litigation led to a legal tangle about who the Bank of England should obey, a question that remains unresolved even after Guaidó lost international recognition. The result is a legal limbo in which the gold remains immobilized, without any of the parties being able to dispose of it. Piracy accusations. From the Chavista environment, the retention of gold was denounced as an act of “piracy”an accusation made at the time by Delcy Rodríguez, which was later marred by the scandal known as Delcygate following his alleged secret trip to Madrid in 2020 despite an EU entry ban and the alleged sale of Venezuelan bullion. Although Rodríguez has adopted a more conciliatory tone After the fall of Maduro, offering cooperation to the United States, the British position remains firm: Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper has reiterated that London maintains political pressure because it considers it key to force a democratic transition, even underlining the formal independence of the Bank of England in the management of assets. The dangerous precedent. The Venezuelan case is not an exception, but rather part of a trend increasingly controversial: the immobilization of sovereign reserves in a context of growing geopolitical confrontation. We have told it: after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western countries froze about 300,000 million of dollars from the Russian central bank, largely deposited in Eurocleara measure that has generated tensions with Moscow and has revived the debate about the security of keeping assets abroad. Historically, these sanctions have been rare but not unprecedented, from the Soviet confiscation of Romanian gold in 1918 to blockades of countries like Iran or North Korea in the second half of the 20th century. Global distrust. Thus, the climate of uncertainty is leading many countries to rethink where do you keep your reservesdriving repatriation movements and fueling the recent gold rally as an active refuge. For analysts and central banks, the Venezuelan episode is a clear warning of how politics can interfere with assets that were traditionally considered untouchable. While the Bank of England remains officially silent (and many ingots), Venezuelan gold remains buried under London, converted into a symbol of an increasingly international financial order. more fragile and politicized. Image | Bank of England, Eluveitie In Xataka | The mission in Caracas revealed that the best kept secret in the US is not a drone: it is called DAP and you will not see it in the movies In Xataka | The attack on Venezuela has recovered an uncomfortable truth: that it would not have happened to North Korea for a very simple reason

Getting hold of Venezuela’s immense oil reserves seems like a “bargain.” It’s actually an engineering nightmare.

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The geopolitical board has been blown up with the establishment of the “Donroe Doctrine.” According to energy analyst Javier Blasthis movement seeks to consolidate an energy empire from Alaska to Patagonia to control 40% of world production. Trump has not hesitated, making it clear that his objective is oil, recovering “stolen” assets and executing a lightning reconstruction led by American oil companies. However, Washington’s optimism clashes with technical reality. Analysts consulted by The Wall Street Journal They warn that there will not be an immediate miracle in the wells. In fact, the market has stopped fearing shortages and has begun to discount a future saturation of crude oil that is already pushing prices down. It’s not “black gold”, it’s asphalt. The narrative of easy success collides with geology. Venezuela It has 303,000 million barrels of proven reserves, but the vast majority is located in the Orinoco Belt and is extra-heavy crude oil. Unlike light oil, it is viscous, dense and does not flow naturally; It is more like tar than fuel. Added to the geological complexity is an alarming degradation of quality. A Reuters investigationbased on internal PDVSA documents, reveals that refiners in India (Reliance) and China (CNPC) have canceled orders or demanded drastic discounts because the crude oil arrives “dirty”, with excessive levels of water, salt and metals. These impurities corrode distillation towers and refining equipment, making processing an expensive and risky process. According to the researcher Luisa Palaciosthe country does not even produce the diluents (gasoline) necessary to transport this crude oil through pipelines, which forces it to depend on imports or inefficient mixtures. Low profitability. Despite the magnitude of the reserves, Venezuelan oil is far from being a profitable business. Its current low profitability is based on three critical pillars that any investor must consider. First of all, geology works against us. According to Forbesextracting this heavy crude oil requires massive and constant technical investment in steam injection and “upgrading” plants to transform the bitumen into a marketable product. Without this expensive technology, the resource is simply inaccessible. Added to this are the structural discounts in the market. As Al Jazeera explainsDue to its high density and sulfur content, this crude oil always trades below markers such as Brent or WTI. With a barrel that could fall to 50-60 dollars in 2026, the profit margin for Venezuela would be reduced to a minimum. The bottleneck: logistics. As an analysis in Bloomberg points outthe infrastructure is literally in ruins because loading a supertanker now requires five days, compared to just one day seven years ago. The collapse is such that the state oil company itself has gone so far as to dismantle oil pipelines to sell them for scrap, while key complexes such as Paraguaná are dying due to lack of maintenance. The rescue recipe. Venezuela dreams of the 4 million barrels per day that marked its rise in the 70s, but the financial reality is a bucket of cold water. Francisco Monaldi, director of energy policy at Rice University, calculates that the energy rescue demands 10 billion dollars a year for an entire decade. A goal as ambitious as it is expensive. However, money is not everything when human capital is lacking. CBCNews remember that In 2003, 23,000 skilled professionals were laid off, many of whom ended up in the Canadian tar sands. Without this talent, American cutting-edge technology has no hands to operate it. Furthermore, giants such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips will not move a single drill until legal certainty is guaranteed and settlements are made. billionaire debts of the expropriations of the Chávez era. But why Venezuela if Canada already exists? If crude oil is so “bad” and expensive, why Trump’s interest? The key is a necessary technical symbiosis. Gulf Coast refineries (Texas and Louisiana) They are like “stomachs” Designed for heavy food. Ironically, the oil that the US extracts through fracking is “too good” (too light). To optimize your plants and produce diesel, they need to mix its light crude oil with Venezuela’s heavy crude oil. Rory Johnston and Lino Carrillo they explain thatAlthough Canada’s crude oil is identical to Venezuelan crude, the latter has an unbeatable advantage: it is three days away by ship and has access to deep waters, while Canada suffers from “geographic confinement” due to saturated oil pipelines. Furthermore, by controlling this flow, the US cuts off the supply to “teapot” (independent refiners) of China, which until now bought Venezuelan crude at a discount, thus eliminating a competitive advantage for Beijing. There was a small pulse. Behind Trump’s mobilization, as the New York Times emphasizesChevron has positioned itself as a key player in the entire equation. This desire to go after Venezuelais also explained because it had a single major oil company that has maintained its presence in the country since 1923, surviving nationalizations and crises while competitors such as ExxonMobil left the board. There is a hidden treasure. Beyond oil, Venezuela is a “gas station” that wastes its own product. Luisa Palacios and The Kobeissi Letter The 200 billion cubic feet of natural gas stand out (the largest reserve in the region). Due to pure technical negligence, PDVSA today burns or vents an amount of gas equivalent to the consumption of all of Colombia, losing 1 billion dollars annually in smoke. Added to this is the potential of Mining Bow with critical minerals (nickel, coltan, bauxite) essential for the defense and technology industry. The paradox of the “gas station without hoses.” Trump has taken control of the largest reserve on the planet, but he has found himself with a facility that has no hoses, whose electrical grid is collapsing and whose fuel requires intensive processing so as not to destroy the engines. Although the flow of exports can be redirected quickly from China to the US in a matter of months—benefiting refineries in Texas and Louisiana—the actual reconstruction of the sector is a long-term project. The real battle has not been the capture of Maduro, but the management … Read more

Venezuela’s biggest problem is not narcolanchas. Is that the US has reopened Roosevelt Roads after 20 years closed

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The United States has carried out A second attack Against an alleged vessel of Venezuelan drug traffickers in the Caribbean, ordered by Trump, who assured that it was “narcoterrorist” and spread, againan aerial video of the impact that three dead would have left. The problem is that it has not been possible to verify that the boat belonged to a poster or to transport drugs. Actually, the most worrying thing for Venezuela is kilometers from the nation. Second attack. As We countat the beginning of the month there was another attack against a “drug ship” attributed to the Aragua train leaving 11 deathsin a context of American naval reinforcement in the area with eight ships (including destroyers, a cruise, an amphibious assault ship and a nuclear submarine) and a hard line expressed by Marco Rubio of “fly” suspicious vessels. For its part, Nicolás Maduro He has denounced The last attack as an “aggression” in international waters and a pretext to force a regime change, stating that communications with Washington are broken except for migrant repatriation efforts, and rejecting the accusations To lead the “Los Soles poster”, although the United States raised to 50 million dollars the reward for information that leads to its capture. An operational piece. Time will say what is the scope of Washington’s plans, but a track is offered by the old Naval Station Roosevelt Roadsclosed in 2004 and largely delivered to the Government of Puerto Rico. The reason? USA He has reopened it as a node of operations for the campaign against drug trafficking in the Caribbean and to sustain pressure on Maduro’s Venezuelan regime. The arrival of F-35B furtive fightersadded to load flights C-5 Galaxy and C-17 Globemaster IIIas well as the presence of MV-22 Osprey and helicopters CH-53K of the IWO Jima Amphibious Readiness Group and the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, has converted the current José Aponte de la Torre airport, into CEIBA, into a activity center growing. Air Force personnel have reactivated the operability of the control tower, while grounding equipment They load and download Material to support imminent operations, recovering the logistics pulse of an installation that for years seemed definitely numb. A “city-base.” With a gigantic surface at the eastern end of the main island, Roosevelt Roads combines a track of more than 3 km Able to host practically all the American air inventory with a deep water port suitable for surface ships and submarines, a binomial that singular it in the Caribbean arch. That Air-Mar duality It returns to place it as a support point for regional scope maneuvers and as a fast deployment platform, functions that the installation already performed for decades, now reissued in a context of transnational crime, maritime surveillance and need for expeditionary mobility. Ohio Uss Maryland class ballistic missile submarine at the Roosevelt Roads Naval Station, 1997 Growth in the Cold War. They remembered Twz analysts that the idea of ​​placing a large base in East Puerto Rico He was born in 1919when Franklin Delano Roosevelt, then Undersecretary of the Navy, explored the area and tried it strategic for the Caribbean control. Inaugurated in 1943 And baptized in his honor, the base was conceived as cornerstone of the regional defense, with protected anchoring, a major aerodrome and industrial capabilities capable of sustaining a good part of the Atlantic fleet in war conditions. Reorient as Naval Station in 1957his footprint expanded during the Cold War before the perception of Cuba as a threat aligned with the USSR, becoming a large support center for the sixth fleet and hosting the Naval Communications Station of Puerto Rico after attacks that damaged equipment in another location. Over time, the “city-base” came to add More than one hundred miles of interior roads already support operations that go from the Dominican Republic and Haiti to Granada and Panama, a reflection of their centrality in the American military architecture of the hemisphere. Aerial view of the base Slope. Roosevelt Roads’s operational link with Vieques’ shooting polygon marked his reason for being For six decadesbut also fed a social answer sustained by civil victims and environmental damage. He End of bombing In 2003 emptied its main mission and, in full strategic turn after 11-S towards campaigns in the Middle East and Central Asia, the base entered the BRAC closing process. The Marina transferred thousands of homes, schools, profits and a hospital to the government of Puerto Rico, a decision held by those who rejected militarization, but opened An economic hole of great draft in the CEIBA region and adjacent municipalities. Operational reactivation. Despite the formal closure, Roosevelt Roads never disappeared completely from the functional map: in 2017 It served as a platform For the help effort after Hurricane Maria, demonstrating the usefulness of its infrastructure integrated in emergency situations. On August 31, the Large scale return of the Navy to support the training and operations of the 22nd Meu visibly reactivated its logistics chain, its air traffic and its role as a “link” of a reinforced anti -drug architecture, with multiplier effects on other facilities of the island that operate in tandem. The debate in Puerto Rico. While a defense official rules out, for now, permanent reopening, the drive grows on the island to return to Roosevelt Roads A stable status. Senate resolution 286, driven by senators Nitza Morán Trinidad and Carmelo Ríos Santiago, proposes to audit the state of the old base and study its eventual reallocation for security purposes National under the army. The argument is based on A double promise: contribute to the defense of the Caribbean and the Americas and, at the same time, reactivate an economic engine that for decades irrigated employment, services and investment in CEIBA and surroundings. The memory of the social costs associated with Vieques lives today with the evidence that the installation, properly fit into concrete missions and with strict environmental minimums, can generate regional activity and resilience. Possible scenarios. Without a defined temporal horizon (or “official”) for the Caribbean Operation of Washingtonthe … Read more

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