transferred

Taiwan is one of the most advanced economies in the world, yet it produces less than 5% of the energy it consumes. In just a few days, it can go from being a key center of global technology to depend completely of what happens thousands of kilometers from its coasts. And China has seen an opportunity. Energy as a geopolitical weapon. The war in the Middle East has triggered a chain reaction that goes far beyond the battlefield: with energy routes strained and the Strait of Hormuz turned into a global bottleneckcountries have set out to ensure supplies at any price. In this context of urgency, energy has ceased to be just an economic resource and has become a direct tool of political pressure, one capable of reconfiguring alliances, dependencies and strategic balances in a matter of weeks. The offer that changes the board. And it is precisely in that scenario where China has reformulated your proposal towards Taiwan with a much more pragmatic approach: instead of appealing so much to national identity, the offer is aimed at a concrete and urgent need, energy security. The idea? Beijing offers guaranteed access to stable, cheaper and less exposed resources to external crises in exchange for peaceful “reunification”presenting integration as a technical solution to a structural problem. The message leaves no room for doubt: under the umbrella of a “strong power,” the island could free yourself from uncertainty of global markets and their dependence on vulnerable maritime routes. Gas station in Taiwan A known vulnerability. The proposal is not coincidental, of course, but rather points directly to a critical weakness what was known: Taiwan almost all the energy matters that consumes and depends largely on supplies that pass through areas of high geopolitical risk. Beijing not only presents itself as an alternative supplier, but also suggests that this exposure can get worse if the conflict is prolonged, reinforcing the idea that the solution is to reduce this external dependence. At the same time, it proposes a future of energy integration (electrical networks, gas pipelines, interconnections) that would eliminate a large part of that vulnerability. Between seducing and pressuring. There is no doubt, this strategy of “energy persuasion” It does not replace the rest of the pressure tools that China has had active for a long time. It we have counted before, those military maneuvers around the island, the blockade drills and the constant presence of Chinese forces are part of an environment of sustained pressure that seeks to wear down without provoking open conflict. Under this scenario, the energy adds thus to a set of levers (military, economic and diplomatic) designed to progressively reduce Taiwan’s room for maneuver. Taiwanese rejection and calculation. Taiwan’s response remained to be known. Faced with the suggestive offer, the island has officially responded firmlyrefusing to exchange sovereignty for energy supply and defending that it has sufficient reserves and diversified sources, especially with the support of the United States. As analysts point out, beyond the technical feasibility of the Chinese proposal, the problem is more credibility: The Hong Kong experience has eroded confidence in the model of “one country, two systems”and for a large part of Taiwanese society accepting this agreement would mean beginning a process of gradual loss of autonomy. Long term play. This “no” from Taiwan has not been interpreted in Beijing as something resounding. Possibly, because deep down, the Beijing proposal reflects a much broader strategy: taking advantage of global crises to present itself as a provider of stability in the face of an increasingly volatile environment. There is, therefore, no urgency or immediate rush to force reunification, but rather an accumulation of advantages that, over time, make the option of integrating less costly than resisting. The war in the East has thus opened an unexpected window for that narrative, turning energy into a political argument first order and demonstrating that, in the new geopolitical situation, the control of resources can be as decisive as that of territories. Image | 總統府, Picryl In Xataka | The same day that the US sent its marines to Iran, Taiwan woke up with déjà vu: China has surrounded it with 26 planes and 7 warships In Xataka | US experts are clear about the year in which China will try its luck with Taiwan: the countdown has already begun