polar

We believed that polar bears were doomed to disappear. In Norway they are getting fatter and healthier

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For decades, the polar bear has become in the indisputable symbol of the climate crisis that we are living. The equation seemed quite simple and devastating: if there is less sea ice, they will be able to hunt less and, therefore, the bears will be more malnourished and may disappear. But what we are seeing has broken this logic, at least in one specific region of the Arctic. The paradigm shift. Against all odds, the polar bears of the Savalbard Archipelago, Norwayhave presented a better body condition than 25 years agoeven though their habitat is melting at a fast pace. And this has generated many questions. In order to answer this, the study led by Jon Aars of the Norwegian Polar Institutehas provided conclusive data after decades of monitoring these animals. all this thanks to 770 polar bears that have been in the focus of the study during the years 1995 and 2019 in the Barents region. They are getting fat. After analyzing all the measurement results, it was found that an ecological paradox existed: although the ice-free season in the area has lengthened significantly, these bears are increasing their weight significantly since 2005. The big question here is… How possible? The answer. The key to this unexpected resilience seems to lie in the unique biological productivity of the Barents Sea and in the adaptation capacity of these predators. According to the study, several simultaneous factors have occurred, such as prey density. This means that the loss of ice has concentrated these bears’ prey in smaller, coastal areas, paradoxically making them more accessible at certain times. But it does not stop there, since an increase in the number of seals has also been seen, and especially in bearded seals which is a much larger prey and rich in fat. A change of diet. This is where the flexibility of the predator comes in, since Svalbard’s eyes have begun to supplement their diet with terrestrial resources, including reindeer and bird eggstaking advantage of what the land offers when the sea fails. In short, Svalbard’s bears live in a “bubble” of ecological abundance that has cushioned, for now, the physical impact of ice loss due to global warming. There is no need to celebrate it. It is easy to fall into the temptation of using this study to minimize the impact of climate change because the fact that ice is becoming less and less has not affected the species. But the authors of the study point out that this is an anomaly that occurs in this specific area of ​​the Arctic but is not a global trend. In this way, while the bears of Svalbard enjoy this temporary respite, their relatives in Hudson Bay (Canada) and other regions of the Arctic show severe signs of malnutrition and above all a decrease in the number of animals. And the difference is that not all Arctic ecosystems are as rich as the Barents Sea. A mirage. This is what the study warns that we may have in front of us, since now the bear has been able to adapt to the situation, but the sea ice continues to retreat, we do not know what will happen. What is expected is that a tipping point may be reached where not even the richness of prey or reindeer eggs will be enough to sustain the current population, starting a new ecological crisis here. Images | Hans-Jurgen Mager In Xataka | They’re not kissing, they’re scanning: the complex science behind nose-to-nose contact in the animal kingdom

with a large amount of water but no trace of polar cold

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January is going to say goodbye with great weather instability that we are already experiencing in our flesh throughout the entire Spanish territory. If we look at the weather maps for this week that begins today, the conclusion is quite unanimous. both in the AEMET as in the European ECMWF prediction model: stability has been broken. Starting today we enter a regime of humid winds accompanied by rainfall well above average on the Atlantic slopewith special impact on Galicia and the central system. Rain, a lot of rain. If we look at the forecasts on a national scale, we are facing very marked rainfall this week. And we are not talking about normal rains, but rather accumulated ones that in the northeast could exceed the usual average for these dates by 60%. Something that responds to saying goodbye to the storm Ingrid to give way to the storm Joseph that will affect Galicia above all. Galicia is one of the points where accumulations are expected to reach 90 liters per extra square meter of anomaly with peaks of up to 150 liters per square meter in orographic points. But mountain systems such as the Sierra de Gredos, the Pyrenees and the high areas of Andalusia will also receive significant amounts of water and snow due to the orographic enhancement of the southwest winds. The AEMET. In a post on his blog, The public agency points out that this week will be marked by the passage of “fronts associated with Atlantic storms, which would leave rain in most of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands.” Likewise, it points to the great intensity that they will have in Galicia, which will undoubtedly bear the brunt throughout this week. The thermal paradox. One of the key points that highlight the predictions is in the thermometer. Anyone could imagine very low temperatures accompanying this amount of precipitation that is expected, but the reality is very different, since we are not facing a polar cold wave. The models indicate in this case that since the winds come from the Atlantic, the air arrives warm and loaded with humidity. This will keep temperatures above the climatic measurement as the maximum temperatures will be between 10 and 16ºC, while the minimum temperatures will remain between 8ºC and 12ºC, avoiding severe frosts in low areas. The snow. In this sense we can rest assured, since according to the AEMET, the snow will be limited mainly to the mountain systems of the peninsula. However, we must be attentive to Wednesday, January 28 and Thursday, January 29, since a specific drop in elevation after the passage of a cold front could leave snowfall in areas of the northern plateau and medium-low elevations, although it will be a transitory episode within a generally mild environment. Why does this happen? To understand this carousel of storms you have to look at the index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Currently, it is in a negative phase, which means that the Azores anticyclone weakens or shifts, allowing storms to circulate at lower latitudes (i.e. over Spain) instead of deviating towards northern Europe. Images | AEMET In Xataka | We have always believed that London is very rainy and that Barcelona is not. The only problem is that it’s a lie

AEMET says ‘goodbye’ to the polar cold during the remainder of January

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After the cold and the passing of the Goretti stormSpain changes screen. And he does it for the rest of the month and who knows if for the rest of the year. The polar cold is over, although we are not very clear what is coming next. What is going to happen? As we explained a few days agothey spoke of a deep trough that was coming in the direction of the Peninsula. This south-southwest advection is bringing “tropical maritime air”: that is, air that is warmer and more humid than normal. For this reason, the morning frost has receded this morning throughout the country and, therefore, there are thermal anomalies approaching 8ºC above average in areas of the interior and the northeastern half. Bottom line, the cold is melting and a time is coming”more pleasant“. Although it’s not ‘spring’ all that glitters. At least, when it comes to risks. Let’s think about it for a moment: Galicia can receive up to 150 liters per square meter these days and, indeed, it is not something disproportionate. But the soil is already saturated with water and that amount can very easily produce floods, landslides or local flooding. To that, furthermore, you have to add the thaw. What has changed? Last week we said that the specific consequences of this atmospheric movement were still not clear; but the uncertainties are already dissipating: as Sergio Escama explainedwhat the models indicate is that the polar jet that had been very wavy in recent days is straightening and that, right now, facilitates the entry of air masses from the Atlantic (and limits strong thermal inversions that collapse night temperatures). For this reason, the map of Spain is little by little recovering its color. What does all this translate into? What will it do? less cold than usual for this time of year and, above all, less than what we have spent in recent weeks. However, we should not overreact: we are not talking about spring. There is still a lot of winter left. After all, although this year it may be surprising, this type of “Atlantic mode” is a classic of the peninsular winter. AND it’s not bad news: These settings are synonymous with water. For the rest: the classics return in 2026, which is still unknown. Image | Tropical Tidbits n Xataka | While the snow devours half of Europe, there is a place where it is 27ºC and on the beach in the middle of January: Greece

The clash between a polar front and the Atlantic threatens Twelfth Night

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Just a few hours away from closing 2025, all eyes are already on the weather at the beginning of January and especially on Three Kings Day. after seeing that New Year’s Eve will be quiet. And although there is still room for change, current models already suggest a drastic change in weather with a general drop in temperatures and a large amount of snow spread across the peninsula. The model. The last installment that we have the European model of the ECMWF proposes a scenario of great instability for January 4 and 5, 2026, with snowfall that could reach unusual levels and affect a large part of the center and northeast of the peninsula. Something that is already being shared on social networks by accounts specialized in meteorology. A situation of great instability that would respond to the entry of a cold front of polar origin and the arrival of Atlantic storms loaded with humidity. Two factors that when they collide are the perfect ingredient for widespread snowfall. Although there is still room for this to change, since reliability is low for periods longer than five days. The position of the AEMET. The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) maintains a much more conservative position. In its special prediction for this Christmas, the agency confirms that the beginning of 2026 will be colder than normal, especially due to the arrival of the storm Francis. This will leave rain starting on January 1 in the Canary Islands and starting on Friday the 2nd it will affect the west of the peninsula. From here, what is expected is that on January 4 there will be strong northerly winds and a generalized thermal drop. But from day 5 there is a “high uncertainty.” Although the models indicate persistent low temperatures, the agency does not currently confirm snowfall at low levels that could turn Three Kings Night white. Fifth anniversary. It is impossible to ignore the psychological component of this forecast, since this coming January marks five years of Filomena. That is why at this time it is easy to look at the maps with a little more disbelief in case there are signs of something similar, although at the moment nothing similar is confirmed. For now wait. With all this, the most prudent thing is to wait until this Twelfth Night approaches to have clear conclusions, especially in view of the different parades that leave in different parts of Spain that can be threatened by adverse weather, but that can always change up to at least 48-72 hours before. Images | TheWeather In Xataka | La Niña is going to be meteorologically “less intense” than we expected. And that actually hides a problem.

The polar vortex collapsed for just a few hours, but it showed us how unstable this winter is coming

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Although it sounds complicated, the stratospheric polar vortex is, quite simply, the Earth’s large system of cold air and low pressure. One to the north and one to the south, rotating around the poles, acting as a barrier that keeps the frigid air away from the temperate zones of the planet. . And that’s exactly what happened in November. A sudden warming of the Arctic stratosphere (rises of up to 30 degrees in a few days) caused a huge mass of air to enter the troposphere and, in response, the westerly winds plummeted from strong values ​​to almost 0 meters per second. El vórtice se paró. Something extremely rare at the end of November. And it’s not just a scientific curiosity; but it entails a brutal redistribution of air masses. However, the vortex did not break completely: it was a quick and strong blow that left the system in stand-by, but it started again relatively quickly. That’s why, the spectacular consequences that were expected So? While it is true that the warming was “historical”, “very rare” for the dates on which it occurred and “very abrupt”, it must be understood (above all) as a warning that the atmosphere is very unstable this winter. Like a wake-up call: something we have to monitor. What the models say. As explained by MeteoVigothe models indicate that the strength of the stratospheric winds (the “muscle” of the vortex) will decrease again in the coming days; But facing the last days of December (around the 26th) the vortex will tend to recover a more circular shape and an intensity close to the climatic average. And what does all this mean? For Europe (and specifically for Spain), the vortex is something important: determines the probability of cold winters, anticyclonic blockages in high latitudes and trains of Atlantic storms. That is to say, if the vortex strengthens heading into December there will be less probability of extreme arctic irruptions and, possibly, a greater weight of storms. However, all scenarios are open: the models continue to draw the busiest winter of the time. Image | In Xataka | The last hope of winter in Spain is desperate, but increasingly possible: the breaking of the polar vortex

a polar Spain in the middle of a world above average

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The climatological autumn has its days numbered and is going to say goodbye in style. After a little rain and mild temperatures, the cold returns to our latitudes. And he is going to do it with force. However, that is not the worrying thing. The worrying thing is what comes next: that in the rain department, we are going to lose a good part of December. “Three days of pure cold.” That’s the summary of the rest of the week. And so says Roberto Granda, one of our greatest temperature experts. As explainedthe cold has already been noticeable in Tuesday’s lows. We have seen “drops of up to 4 and 6 degrees across the board.” Wednesday will be the coldest day of this episode with widespread frost and much of the interior of the country below 10 degrees. However, the coldest night will be Thursday and the minimum temperatures will be below five degrees in most of the peninsular territory. And after? Then we will have a reminder that we are still in autumn. One of those seasons in which the atmosphere casts lots for what is going to happen just before it happens. In this case, despite there being many scenarios on the table, the most likely is that at the end of the week a ridge will settle over Spain to collapse almost immediately, allowing a trough from the north to approach our positions. That would mean more rain: not a lot, but it’s something. Above all, because they may be the last for a long time. The European model has changed its forecast and everything seems to indicate that A NAO+ will be imposed during the first week of December. NAO positive? In general terms, the North Atlantic Oscillation It is the ‘dance’ between the Azores anticyclone and the Icelandic low, the two major atmospheric phenomena that govern the meteorology of the North Atlantic. When the index we use for “measure who is winning” is negative, the Azores anticyclone is weaker than normal and, for this reason, it cannot block the deep Atlantic storms. The direct consequence is that they circulate further south than usual: right at our latitude. yes how everything seems to indicate the NAO becomes positivenot a drop of moisture will enter from the west. The storms will move towards high latitudes (near Iceland and the Nordic countries) and, although stability will not be absolute, the situation will be very dry. Good news for tourism, I guess. Because as explains Samuel Biener“a predominant flow from the west or southwest, the temperatures could be between 1 and 3 ºC above the average in the center, northern third and on the shores of the Mediterranean” during the December long weekend. We do not have any quantification of what will happen in the south and in the Canary Islands, but we can get an idea. Image | TropicalTridBits In Xataka | The last hope of winter in Spain is desperate, but increasingly possible: the breaking of the polar vortex

Something is moving in the north and the polar vortex is weaker than ever

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Something is happening in the north and we’ve been saying it for days. Forecasts pointed to a huge sudden stratospheric warming during the last week of November. I said ‘huge’ and it is not a rhetorical device: it is normally very difficult to know what consequences such a warming will have; but being so big, meteorologists they already speculate with a complete destabilization of the polar vortex. And the strange thing about all this is not that there is such a big “sudden stratospheric warming.” That’s relatively normal. The strange thing is that we are facing a very precocious one. Surely, before the earliest of the entire record. And that has set off all the alarms. What is the polar vortex? But let’s start at the beginning: the ‘polar vortex’ is a stream of strong winds (west → east) that revolves around the large reserves of cold air found above the planet’s poles. It is formed in the stratosphere; that is, at about 16-48 kilometers high. On a metaphorical (or ‘journalistic’ if you push me) level, the polar vortex is what the cold contains at the pole. Logic tells us that, in summer, the vortex is reduced to a minimum and, although it is true that we have never seen it disappear, it becomes so weak that it loses any influence over the time of the hemisphere. But in winter the situation changes and it does so radically. Very often, during the winter the vortex grows and, although “usually a solitary creature“and harmless, it is common for it to overflow and end up affecting the rest of the hemisphere. That is what it seems we are going to see these weeks. And what is sudden stratospheric warming?? To understand this process well, it is good to remember that the atmosphere is a “lasagna of air layers” and each of them follows its own logic. That is, they function quite differently and independently; but never completely independent. This is what happens between the air circulation in the troposphere (the one closest to the surface) and the circulation in the stratosphere (the layer directly above): they are related, yes; but, in substance, each one goes their own way. During the “sudden stratospheric warming“, a part of the troposphere warms rapidly and, as a consequence, invades the stratosphere, causing a profound alteration of the circulation at high altitude. That is, for a few days, everything turns upside down. Okay, so what’s going to happen? The data begins to indicate that the countdown has already been activated. As they pointed out from Meteored“a record has been recorded in the speed of the zonal wind of the polar vortex, this would be weaker than ever on those dates.” That is to say, we have just found the first sign that warming is already underway. The problem is that, as Víctor González pointed out“the ease of predicting sudden stratospheric warming in the medium term contrasts greatly with the difficulty of anticipating its consequences.” Hence, we already know with almost absolute certainty that something is going to happen in the stratosphere of the north pole, but it is not clear what is going to happen. And we know nothing of its consequences? Not for now. What’s more, it seems likely that the consequences would not be seen until mid-December. For now, the experts will have “monitor the alteration of the stratospheric polar vortex and then monitor its propagation to lower levels, finally observing how the tropospheric circulation and the polar jet may behave.” This is very meticulous work, but very necessary. We already know that this type of event is related to historic cold waves and, in that case, we better be prepared. Image | Severe Weather In Xataka | The last hope of winter in Spain is desperate, but increasingly possible: the breaking of the polar vortex

A very deep polar trough is descending towards North Africa and Spain is right in the middle

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Now Spain is busy with the rain and it is logical: it is not every day that a high-impact storm hits you and turns the country upside down. However, as they said from Navarmeteothe key question is what is going to happen from Tuesday. Let’s fasten our seatbelts, because curves are coming. An early winter. Both the European and American models coincide in a change in weather pattern next week. Towards Thursday, a very deep polar trough will descend from northern Europe towards the south. The interesting (and worrying) thing is that it is going to pass right over us. That is, in a week Spain will be immersed in a polar air mass maritime. But the thing is not limited to that: as a corridor opens that connects us to the north (between the western anticyclone and the storm in the Gulf of Genoa), shortly after the first ‘impact’ a second pulse of even colder continental polar air will arrive. What does this mean? Well, if everything happens as the models say, cold and humid air from the North Atlantic will enter first. That will cause temperatures to drop and rain and snow will return. Then, with the strengthening of the northerly flow, drier and colder air will arrive: a major thermal collapse. Are we sure about this? We have been seeing for days how the great models they were converging around a scenario like this: a huge tongue of cold approaching the peninsula. However, skepticism was more than justified. But things are starting to get real. It seems clear that it will be a cold week throughout the country (except the Canary Islands) and temperatures at altitude are beginning to reach up to 10 degrees below average. Everything will start in the Cantabrian Sea, but by Friday it will have reached the entire peninsula. Things are going to change. We come from the storm Claudia and, although the impact has been considerable, It has been a fairly tempered system. However, things are going to change: even if in the end the trough does not reach that far south, the cold is going to be felt in large areas of the country. And this is the beginning of a winter that, if all goes well, is expected very (but very) moved. Image | Tropical Tridbits In Xataka | It’s going to rain in Galicia. It seems normal but it is something more: the prelude to a total change in the weather in Spain

China has always dreamed of a “Polar Silk Road” so that its ships reach Europe sooner. It is already a reality

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Monday was an important day in Felixstoweone of the largest container ports in the United Kingdom. Towards the end of the afternoon, their workers saw the silhouette of the Istanbul Bridgea container ship loaded with lithium batteries and parts for the photovoltaic industry. In itself, the appearance of the Istambul did not represent anything new, the curious thing was where it came from or (more precisely) where it arrived: with its arrival at the docks of Felixstowe the ship completed a historic voyage of 20 days through the Arctic Ocean. Its journey to the British coast has allowed China to take a key step in achieving one of his big dreams: a ‘Polar Silk Road’ with Europe. What has happened? That China has achieved a milestone in maritime trade. Perhaps more symbolic than decisive, but still important. Late on Monday the container ship Istanbul Bridge arrived in the United Kingdom after a trip that had started 20 days before in Ningbo-Zhoushana very important port hub on the coast of the East China Sea. So far nothing strange. The key is that the Istanbul Bridge did not reach Felixtowe in the usual way, after detouring south to cross the Suez Canal and advance through the Mediterranean and the Atlantic towards Europe. No. He did it on the voyage that took the ship through northern waters, through the icy Arctic Ocean and the North Sea. AND that is relevant. Why is it important? The Istanbul, a ship with capacity for 4900 containers standard (TEU), 299 meters in length and flag of liberia (although in reality it has operated bound to the Chinese Sea Legend and Haijie Shipping) it is not the first ship that sails along what is known as the Northern Sea Route, but its voyage has had a special meaning. As remember CNNthe first ships loaded with containers began sailing through the Arctic more than a decade ago, but it is normal for them to do so on special and specific trips. The Istanbul Bridge has another approach. Since his departure from Ningbo-Zhoushan has been presented as proof that the northern route can be used as “a traditional line service”, with commercial stops. “It’s something we haven’t seen in the Arctic until now,” recognize Malte Humper, from the Arctic Institute. The ship took 20 days to complete its journey between China and the United Kingdom loaded with about 4,000 containers and its objective, beyond Felixstowe, is to unload merchandise in other ports in Germany, Poland and the Netherlands. As required According to the Chinese agency Xinhua, the ship was mainly transporting lithium-ion batteries and parts for the photovoltaic industry, goods that are sensitive to heat and in which delivery times are a strategic factor. And why this interest? Because the ultimate objective is not to stop at the feat of the Istanbul Bridge, but to promote the trade route known as “China-Europe Arctic Express”, an itinerary that connects first-class ports such as Ningbo, Shanghai, Qingdao, Dalian, Felixtowe, Rotterdam, Hamburg and Ganks. In fact even Ningbo Customs has referred to the expedition as “the official opening of the first China-Europe Arctic Express container route.” State broadcaster CCTV it is very clear in fact when referring to the voyage of the ship. In his opinion, “it represents the maiden voyage of the first Arctic express container route between China and Europe and demonstrates the commercial viability of the Northwest Passage.” High North News precise that at least for now the route will be seasonal and the shipping company Haijie Shipping plans a single sailing in 2025 (the navigation window is still limited and lasts a few months), but the company seems to have noted the interest of manufacturers and shipping platforms. e-commerce. Is it that interesting? Yes. And it is because its main advantage is speed. The container ship has taken only 20 days to complete its journey, two more than those initially planned. The reason for the delay was a storm passing through the Norwegian Sea that forced him to slow down. Despite this, it represents a notable time saving on China-Europe trips when compared to other much more established alternatives in the sector. As remember Xinhuathe China-Europe Express Railway requires 25 days of travel, transporting goods through the Suez Canal route requires 40 and doing so through the Cape of Good Hope 50. “Trade between China and the European Union has remained strong despite the volatility of the global trade landscape and having a third route, in addition to the traditional shipping corridors and the China-Europe rail service, will bring stability and inject new vitality into bilateral trade,” highlights Cui Hongjianfrom the China Institute of International Studies in Global Times. The Asian newspaper (linked to the Government) does not leave much room for doubt in its report on the Istanbul Bridge: “It represents an emerging international shipping artery of great value to optimize the global supply chain.” Why right now? For several reasons. The main one, because the Arctic of 2025 is not the same as the one of three, four or five decades ago. And it probably won’t be the same in the future either. As climate change progresses and ice fractures and melts, the Arctic is gaining interest as a navigable space. Nikkei assures that its loss has caused the number of ships accessing Arctic waters to have increased by nearly 37% while the total distance traveled has doubled. All in the last 10 years, according to the data managed by WWF. More factors come into play, the reinforced interest that the European market has gained for China in the midst of a tariff war with the United States or the challenges that maritime traffic has encountered in other latitudes, such as the Suez Canala key logistics point that has demonstrated its vulnerability. The northern route also offers extra advantages, such as considerable time savings for shipments destined for Christmas shopping in Europe and low temperatures. Are they all advantages? At all. Perhaps the Arctic has changed, … Read more

The effects of polar jet undulation

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If last week it was marked by a stable atmospheric situation and (especially) by heat, which begins today promises to come with storms and rainfall as great protagonists. The culprit that meteorologists point out: the polar jet. Change in the trend. The experts foresee That this week is marked by instability and storms, as a result of several troughs that will parade through the northern peninsula pushed by undulations of the polar jet. A good part of the territory will say goodbye during these days to the warm event that put the thermometers above the 35º Celsius in much of the country. The passage of troughs. As They already anticipated last week The experts, the reason for this change is in the passage of a trough (several, probably), an elongation of low pressures. The passage of these troughs is bringing unstable time with rainfall and storms that are being locally strong and from the weekend They affect north of the peninsula. As he points out The meteorologist Duncan Wingen for Meteoreda particularly bold polar jet is behind the change in the meterological trend. A change that implies the end of the warm episode that last week alerts a good part of the country. Rain, and more. The forecasts of the State Meteorology Agency They speak of “rainfall and/or locally strong storms” in several areas of the northern peninsular half, such as the Eastern Cantabrian, Alto Ebro, Pyrenees, Iberian and Northeast of the Plateau. The worst part probably falls on the Iberian mountain range. While Aemet He has issued Various yellow warnings for rains and storms, orange notices (for storms) will be activated today in the regions located in the region, as well as in Soria’s adjacent plateau. Already on Tuesday, the agency Point out The continuity of the “locally strong storms”, which during the morning would affect the east and south of the northern plateau, and also to Eastern Iberian environments and Betic. Thermal roller coaster. While the weather change is being more pronounced in the northern half of the Peninsula, between today and tomorrow the temperatures will descend, “normalizing”, in most of the country, according to forecasts. However, the situation could change again from Thursday. According to Meteorologists point outthe arrival of a new dorsal on Thursday, accompanied by dust in suspension, could lead to the return of high temperatures, although their rise would be more located in the Mediterranean area, including the Balearic archipelago. In Xataka | The Artikutza reservoir in Navarra has remained empty despite the rains. His destiny is another: the demolition Image | ECMWF

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