A group of Spanish pilots wait in front of Russia for an alarm that will sound 500 times in 2025. They only have 15 minutes to launch their fighters

A few minutes from Russian airspace, a handful of Spanish pilots live in the most tense routine that exists in peacetime: be ready to take off at any moment from an icy base from the Balticone where the sky is watched as if each blip on the radar could be the start of something bigger. Fifteen minutes. At Šiauliai, a Lithuanian air base that functions as first line of surveillance over the Baltic, the routine can be broken at any second with a siren and a countdown. When the alert goes off (in 2025 alone it did so up to 500 times), the Spanish pilots of the 15th Wing They put on their equipment, get into the vans and run towards the hangars with a single objective: to be in the air in less than fifteen minutes. It is a millimetric mechanic, repeated so many times in training that becomes automaticbecause the mission does not wait for anyone and because in that area an unidentified plane, without a transponder or without communication, can be the beginning of a serious incident. The shadow of an enemy. The function of these quick exits, called “scrambles”is to intercept and escort suspicious aircraft until they leave Allied space or their intentions become clear, and in the Baltic they are almost an everyday language. The route is especially sensitive because it connects Russia with the militarized enclave of Kaliningradand there intersect fighters, surveillance planes and traffic that sometimes fly without a flight plan or without the expected signals. The result is constant tension: some days there are several outings and other weeks everything seems calm, but the feeling is always the same, that the next warning can come when you are resting or half asleep. 15th Wing Fighter Mission since 2004. NATO started this baltic air police in 2004 to protect the space of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and since then the countries have taken turns in rotation four months so that the umbrella is permanent. Over time, the deployment was expanded to other bases in the region, first after the first Russian invasion of Ukraine and later with further expansion, because the Eastern Front ceased to be a theoretical concept. In recent months, furthermore, the incursions became more disturbing due to a new detail: not only manned aircraft appeared, but also drones that crossed borders and forced us to react quickly. Spain and the fighters. The Spanish contingent arrived in December with more than 200 troops and eleven EF-18Ma modernized version of the Hornet that Spain operates and maintains ready to fly day or night. The planes are armed with air-to-air missiles and the pilots train with night vision goggles, because surveillance does not stop when the sun goes down. Behind each exit there is a system that monitors the sky relentlessly, control centers that detect traces on the radar and a decision chain that, when activated, turns the entire base into a fast, silent and perfectly rehearsed choreography. Drones change the script. The big twist is that now the problem is not only the classic military plane that approaches without identifying itself, but the emergence of cheap dronesslow, low and erratic, more difficult to classify and more complicated to stop with means designed for another era. It we have counted. In September last year, a wave of Russian drones penetrated Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine, and then there were similar episodess that forced the activation of fighter jets in countries like Romania. In parallel, small unidentified drones began to be seen near airports, bases and sensitive facilities throughout Europe, fueling the feeling of vulnerability and suspect that someone is measuring response times and blind spots. Crow, the anti-drone. For this reason, in this deployment the 15th Wing arrived with a historical novelty for them: the Indra Crow systeman anti-drone defense that adds a different layer of protection to the base and its surroundings. Crow combines radars, cameras and sensors to detect small aircraft and, once located, attempts to take them down using signal jamming, that is, electronic warfare from fixed or mobile positions. Its range not only protects planes and runways, it also covers the nearby city, because the real goal is to shield critical infrastructure and reduce the risk of a cheap drone causing disproportionate damage. The cost dilemma. Behind this adaptation is a problem that NATO is being forced to solve at full speed: intercepting cheap drones with weapons designed to shoot down fighters is an unsustainable equation. Firing expensive missiles from a fighter jet to take down a small aircraft may work, but it turns every defense in a waste and opens the door to volume saturation. That is why procedures and tactics are being reviewed, looking for cheaper and more specific systems, and assuming that the fighter will no longer always be the best tool to put out the fire. The strategic signal. The arrival of fighters with anti-drone protection It reflects a Europe that begins to fortify the sky as if war were already knocking at the door, although it has not yet fully crossed. In the Baltic, each rotation is a political and military message: there is presence, there is a response and there is an intention to fill gaps that did not exist before. Thus, what was previously an almost routine escort and identification mission is becoming a comprehensive defense exercise against hybrid threatswhere the enemy can be a large plane, a tiny drone or a provocation designed solely to check if, when the alarm sounds, there is really someone capable of taking off in those fifteen minutes. Image | Pexels, Pavel Vanka In Xataka | There are “invisible” Russian submarines happily sailing through the Baltic and that has led Europe to unprecedented measures In Xataka | A Russian submarine has appeared off the coast of France. And Europe’s reaction has been surprising: have a laugh

An advantage against Russia, a problem for its pilots

In the last twelve months what We have been counting: In Ukraine, war has transformed to the nation becoming a catalyst for a war industrial revolution Unexpected It has ceased to be a utopia to think of Kyiv for those nations that want drones. Therefore, the contest, full of paradoxes, offers us one more than anyone saw: they have so many combat drones and so varied that they are an advantage, but also a problem at the same time. Innovation to adversity. The technological history of Ukraine, marked by ingenuity and resilience since Soviet times, explains its current prominence in the field of defense. In 1951, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukrainian engineers developed one of The first computers from Europe in a bombarded building without access to Western publications. This spirit of innovation in isolation, documented in THE BOOK INNOVATION IN ISOLATIONhas endured until today, feeding the emergence of companies such as Grammarly or Ajax, and supporting resistance to Russian invasion. A war revolution. Faced with the Russian invasion, Ukraine has mobilized not only its army, but also its software engineers and developers, who have transformed commercial technology accessible into Effective Combat Systems. From Kamikaze drones Even inhibitor inhibitors of digital signals and platforms Like Delta (which offers real -time tactical vision), Ukrainian solutions arise from improvised workshops and laboratories to the very trenches. Volume, speed and adaptability. In a context where powers like China and Russia They increase their bet For drones, Ukraine has been outlined as An indispensable partner For the western world. Last year, according to Anton Verkhovodov, partner of the Capital Signature D3the country secretly assembled near two million drones In scattered workshops, something unprecedented even within NATO. The advantage does not lie only in the volume, but in the speed of the innovation cycle: it is estimated that in less than a month A new drone can be deployed in the front and, shortly after, face Russian electronic countermeasures, forces it to iterate and improve tirelessly. This adaptation capacity exceeds the development and proof times of Western Defense Contractors, which can It takes years in bringing a new design system to the battlefield. For Rafael Lossof the European Board of Foreign Affairs, this makes Ukraine an ideal partner, both for his tactical knowledge and for his agile and contextualized production capacity. National Autonomy. They counted in Insider that this decentralization has given rise to a kind of “spilled toolbox”, in which countless models, types and technologies coexist. This strategy responds not only to the tactical urgency of facing the Russian invasion, but also to The need for independence in defense, in view of the unpredictability of Western support, especially from the United States. A fact to understand it: in 2024, 96% of 1.5 million drones Acquired by Ukraine were of local production, which shows the solidity of this emerging industrial capacity and its strategic relevance. Flexible supply and adapted to combat. Thanks to this fragmented model, Ukraine has achieved something exceptional: Transfer technology and products from manufacturers directly to the battle frontwithout going through traditional military acquisition structures. Many units obtain their drones through collective financing campaigns, and use civil models adapted to military use. This flexibility allows rapid feedback between operators and manufacturers, optimizing the performance of the equipment and adapting them to the changing demands of the fight. Dimko Zhluktenkoa member of the Ukrainian unmanned systems forces, it emphasizes that it has used multiple drones (99% Ukrainians) from different companies, and that diversity is a tactical advantage over the uniformity of Russian arsenal, much more predictable. Advantages. Unlike Russia, which uses a limited number of drones types, the Ukrainian variety complicates the work of detection, neutralization and counterattack of the enemy. According to The expert James Patton Rogersif Ukraine used only a handful of standardized models, Russia could quickly learn to intercept them by electronic war. However, when facing drones of multiple signatures, configurations and capacities, the Russian forces face a Much more steep learning curve. In addition, the geographical dispersion Production makes Russia identify and destroy key manufacturing centers, something that would be possible with a more centralized model. The competition between manufacturers National also encourages an accelerated career of innovation, with the development of drones guided by artificial intelligencesystems Without GPS, Submarine drones and unmanned land vehicles. Too much. The rhythm of consumption and destruction of drones in the front It is very high. Samuel Bendett, Del Center for Naval Analysishe pointed out that No one foresaw The quickly these technologies would be used, nor the speed with which they would develop countermeasures. Given this reality, Ukraine has opted for the quantity of quality, with an ambitious acquisition plan of 4.5 million drones in 2025. Logic is simple: minimize costs, accelerate times of deployment and maintain tactical pressure by technological saturation. Benjamin Jensen, from Center for Strategic and International Studies, Describe this tactic As a kind of “war lego set”, where pieces of different origins are assembled with creativity, under the guidance of operators and experts around the world. The great disadvantage. However, the worst of this huge drone industry that is raising Ukraine Alexander Pyslar explainedPeloton commander of attack drones, who warned that the diversity of manufacturers represents a constant and unprecedented operational challenge: each model requires adjustments, calibrations and specific training in a scenario where time seems not to exist. This implies that many of the drones received are not sufficiently proven in battle conditionsunlike what would happen with a centralized acquisition strategy with standardized models. Rogers coincides: the quality of the results in the field It varies widelyand the operators must become experts on multiple platforms to use them effectively at an impossible time for it. No doubt, this approach also generates problems of interoperability, maintenance and logistics, key elements in a prolonged combat environment. The drone as the protagonist. In what there are no doubt is in The importance that have acquired these war machines despite their limitations. The drones They have transformed All aspects … Read more

China has just resolved one of the advantages of human hunting pilots in front of AI: interpreting the unpredictable

There was a small redoubt in military key where “human strength” continued to be imposed on algorithms. When it comes to Air Force and the management of combat aircraft such as the Ultra Popular f-16 huntingthe pilots had an advantage that paralyzed the advance of the AI: they were unpredictable in their maneuvers. They may have the days counted. China has found how to anticipate. The end of the human advantage. In A study Published a few weeks ago, China seems to have achieved an unprecedented advance in air combat. As? By eliminating the last tactical advantage of human pilots over artificial intelligence: the ability to maneuver and high intensity to evade attacks. A team of researchers from the North -Western Institute of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, a key branch of the Norinco Armament Gianthas developed a system that combines advanced infrared images with predictive modeling of AI to Precision anticipate movements of an opponent by detecting subtle adjustments on their control surfaces, such as ailerons and rudders. The study. The advance, detailed in a work published in December in it Journal of Gun Launch & Controladdresses a key limitation of AI systems in air combat: their dependence on trajectory -based predictions, which also fail to respond effectively to non -linear and sudden maneuvers of human pilots. The team, led by engineer Lin Zhiwei, overcame this problem by focusing on the Physical mechanics of enemy aircraftallowing AI to interpret millimeter movements on the control surfaces to predict actions before they are completed. How it works. As detailed, the system is based on the use of a modified neuronal network Yolov8the same that analyzes infrared images and Detect microdeformations In the components of the plane, such as the rudder of 1.5 meters from an F-15 or its two-meter stabilizer. These data are then processed in a long and short term memory network (LSTM) Improved with care mechanisms, which allows anticipating the pilot maneuvers in real time, without depending solely on previous flight patterns. In simulations, AI managed to reduce prediction errors less than two meters. It is no small thing, let’s think that it is an improvement of ten times with respect to traditional systems. Applied to automated anti -aircraft systems, this precision would even allow direct attacks directly to the pilot’s cabin if necessary. The test. In their study, the researchers tested the algorithm in flight profiles that They imitated real tactics fighting. In one of these scenarios, an F-15 launched ammunition at low altitude and then performed an abrupt ascent, a maneuver that requires a millimeter coordination of flight controls. In another case, the aircraft executed rapid evasions with erratic movements and sudden changes of direction. In both experiments, the AI ​​predicted the displacements Milliseconds in advancecanceling the pilot’s evasion capacity. A new chapter in the arms race. The advance comes at a key moment in the global race for the supremacy of AI in air combat. In 2020, The Alphadogfight Trials From the Advanced Defense Research Projects (DARPA) of the United States They demonstrated the superiority of AI in combat simulations. More recently, in 2024, an AI system participated in A real dogfight against a human pilot for the first time. The difference? The Chinese team emphasizes that its technology is designed to Optimize fire controlmore than to allow completely autonomous attacks. However, the principles of their AI align with international programs such as “loyal wingman” drones of the United States Air Force, which combine piloted airplanes with combat systems. Plus: The study also confirms that technology is viable with current hardware. Using Chinese manufacturing PS800 infrared sensors, which achieve a resolution of 0.375 miliradia at distances of eight kilometers, the required precision levels are reached For use in real combat. Limitations and countermeasures. Despite its advanced abilities, the system is not invulnerable, of course. One of its main weaknesses expressed by the authors themselves is the possible Interference for electronic countermeasures and optics (such as We have counted in several occasions). In other words: an adversary could use high -power lasers to blind or even destroy the infrared chambers that AI needs to detect the movements of the enemy. There is still a wide margin of improvement. The future of air combat. What seems clear is that the development of this technology represents a turning point in the Air War. Until now, human pilots had a fundamental advantage: what is not studied, the ability to Perform unpredictable maneuvers To avoid being shot down. However, with the ability of this algorithm described to read even the most subtle movements of a combat plane and predict their trajectory with millimeter precision, human pilots could be very close to losing their last tactical advantage and opportunity to overcome machines in a contest. The drones They started the change In real fighting, now it seems that the completely autonomous war is one step closer. Image | Vidmulia, Pexels In Xataka | One of China’s best saved secrets comes to light: it presents its new J-35a hunt, American F-35 rival In Xataka | The secret of Chinese fighter pilots is a very particular technique of the Song dynasty: qigong

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