Black

A study rises to 90% the probability that we see a black hole exploit. Physicists have become nervous

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At some point in the next 10 years we are probably witnessing the explosion of a black hole, according to a new model published in Physical Review Letters. In the light of the telescopes, this very powerful event has the potential to confirm the most famous theory of Stephen Hawking and give us a catalog of unknown particles of the universe. Short. A team of theoretical physicists of the University of Massachusetts Amherst It has recalculated the probability of seeing live the violent explosion of a black hole under the assumption that there are primary black holes in hibernation. Its conclusion is that the most potentially transformative event of modern cosmology could be just around the corner: they calculate more than 90% possibilities that we witness the explosion of a primary black hole during the next decade, under the assumptions posed by the model. The Fat Prize for Physics. Seeing a black hole would be transformer in at least three fronts. It would be the first direct observation of the Hawking radiationthe famous theory of 1970 with which Stephen Hawking postulated that black holes losing mass slowly emitting particles, so they are not completely black. In addition, it is believed that A black hole in evaporation emits all fundamental particles whose mass is lower than its temperature. Therefore, the explosion of a black hole should reveal from the electrons and quarks that we know, to hypothetical particles of dark matter and others completely unknown to science. Finally, the event would confirm the primary black holes. Unlike the black holes that are formed by the collapse of mass stars, it is believed that the primordials were formed in the extreme conditions of the universe less than a second after the Big Bang. “I would completely revolutionize physics and help us rewrite the history of the universe,” says Joaquim Iguaz Juan, co -author of the study. How a black hole explodes. The idea that black holes can explode directly derives from Hawking radiation. The theory says that the lighter a black hole, the higher its temperature and faster emits particles. This creates an uncontrolled process: as it radiates, loses mass and heats up even more. Consequently, it radiates at an increasing rate until, in its final moments, it fades into an explosion of high energy radiation (mainly gamma rays). The problem is that, until now, physicists believed that the chances of seeing such an event were infinitesimal. These calculations, based on black holes without electric charge (black schwarzschild holes), suggested that explosions occur, at most, once every 100,000 years. With those chances, we would have to be very lucky to see one. Where that 90% probability comes from. The researchers decided to question the departure assumption: what if the primary black holes are not electrically neutral? The new hypothesis proposes the existence of a force similar to electromagnetism, But in the dark sector: With a “dark photon” and a very heavy “dark electron”. If a primary black hole was formed with a small dark electric charge, its destination would change completely. This mechanism works as a brake. As the black hole loses mass due to hawking radiation, its load/mass ratio increases, causing its temperature to drastically, which submits it to a state of hibernation for billions of years. After that time, the dark electric field near the horizon becomes so intense that he discharges the black hole, causing the final explosion that we have been waiting for. Why does this increase the chances of observation? Because this long stability period allows much lighter black holes (and, therefore, much more numerous) survive to this day. A greater number of nearby candidates drastically increases the local explosions rate, passing from one every 100,000 years to one every 10 years. We have the technology to see it. The best part is that we do not need to build new technology. Gamma ray observatories as Hawc in Mexico And Lhaaso in China are already scanning the sky and are perfectly able to detect the outbreak of a nearby primary black hole, at a distance of up to 0.3 light years. “We already have the technology to observe these explosions, so we should be prepared,” says Michael Baker, lead author of the study. If it happened, it would be a historical moment. We would be seeing, for the first time, the final echo of the creation of the universe, a first look at the most fundamental secrets of the cosmos in a single and spectacular outbreak of light. In Xataka | Stephen Hawking made a prediction on black holes in 1971. A new signal has been overwhelmed

With the James Webb we have seen the oldest black hole in the universe. But you just have more questions

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He James Webb Space Telescope has accustomed us to discoveries that break with our schemes mental The last discovery Where he has been the protagonist, he has undoubtedly re -rethink what we knew about the universe, by confirming the existence of the black hole more distant ever observed. Something that will allow answering some questions that astronomy still had. A colossus that has already been baptized. This black hole has received the name of Capers-lrd-Z9 And it is 13,300 million light years away, which means that we are seeing it as it was just 500 million years after big Bang. In this way, its existence, and especially the size it has, challenges everything we thought about how these giants grow. How this black hole was found. Finding something that is so far is not a simple task precisely. Astronomers used program data Capers (Candels-Aea Prism Epoch of Reion Survey) of the James Webb space telescope, specially designed for explore the confines of the universe. The leader of the research team, Anthony Taylor, Explain that “when looking for black holes, this is the farthest that can be reached in practice. We are really expanding the limits of what current technology can detect.” A discovery to confirm. The key to confirmation was spectroscopy, the technique that breaks down the light of an objective in its different wavelengths, such as a prism. For Identify an active black holescientists are looking for an unmistakable firm: gas that moves at extreme speeds. Turning the spiral towards the black hole, the light of the gas that moves away from us will tend towards a red wavelength, and that of the gas approaching is compressed towards the blue length. In this way, if these two trends are found, it is quite unmistakable that a black hole is ‘seeing’. In this way, the Nirspec Spectrograph The Webb detected a remarkably wide hydrogen emission line, the irrefutable test that a massive object was stirring the gas around it at speeds of up to 3,500 km/s. It belonged to something bigger. Initially, Capers-LRD-Z9 was just an intriguing motorcycle in webb images. However, it was belonging to a new and enigmatic class of objects called ‘Small red points’ (Little Red Dots or LRDS). These galaxiespresent only in the first 1.5 billion years of the universe, they are extremely compact, bright and as its name indicates very red. His discovery was “a big surprise,” according to Steven Finkelstein, co -author of the study. “They didn’t look anything like galaxies seen with Hubble.” In this way, this finding has helped explain two of the great mysteries above the table. Why are they so bright? Its brightness would suggest an unlikely number of stars for such an early era of the universe. In this way, this study confirms the theory that light comes from a supermassive black hole that is active and literally devours the subject. Something that results in hot and shines with a huge intensity. Why are they so red? The model that best suits the observations of Capers-LRD-Z9 suggests that the black hole is wrapped in a dense and neutral gas environment. This gas cloud absorbs the blue light and lets the red pass, staining the entire galaxy. Something that could be confirmed when comparing this object with other similar sources of energy. An impossible giant. The most shocking of Capers-LRD-Z9 is the size of its black hole. It is estimated that it could have a mass of up to 300 million times that of our sun. To put it in perspective, it is so massive that it could represent more than 4.5% of the total mass of all the stars of its host galaxy, a proportion much greater than the 0.1% we see in the nearby galaxies. How could it grow so much and so fast? This is one of the big questions that anyone can ask, taking into account that this black hole appeared at a very early stage of the universe. Something that questions the current models that we have on the table. Finkelstein summarizes it as follows: “This adds to the growing evidence that primitive black holes grew much faster than we thought were possible. Or they began being much more massive than our models predict.” Two models to explain its existence. The first of these is that the black hole was not born from a star, but from the direct collapse of a cloud of primary gas, starting its life with a mass of thousands of soles and growing at a normal pace. The second theory that scientists have on the table is that it was actually born from one of the first massive stars (with a mass 100 times higher than the sun) that existed. The question here is that he would have grown at a rhythm ‘Super-Edington‘, devouring matter much faster than the stable theoretical limit is considered. There is still much to find out. The team expects to obtain more observations with the Webb to unravel the secrets of this single object. “We had not been able to study the early evolution of black holes until recently,” concludes Taylor, “and we are excited to see what we can learn.” Images | Nasa Hubble Space Telescope In Xataka | Two astronomers studied the “sound of the Big Bang” and reached a disturbing conclusion: the earth is in a lonely bubble

In Spain there is a “black triangle” of fires between Ourense, Zamora and León. And it is not explained only by heat

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The drawing is bleak. If you open Google Mapsactivate the “fire” function And you take a look at the map of Spain you will see that much of the flames that are devouring the mountain of the country (and some populated areas) seem to concentrate on a particular ‘triangle of fire’ between the provinces of Ourense, León and Zamora. There are the fires of Mozyuelas de la Caballea, Yeres or that of Queixa Chandrexawhich have already razed thousands and thousands of hectares. It is not the only region of Spain punished by the flames, but the big question is … Why do forest fires seem to be primed right in that region? The Spain that burns. It is not being a good August for the mountains of the country. According to The last report of the Ministry of Environment (Miteco), still incomplete because its technicians do not have the data of the large active fires, so far this year the flames have devastated 138,800 ha. And that is the calculation to August 10, so it does not include the devastated surface during the last week. To better understand what this data is, remembering that between January and the first week of September 2024 the forest fires burned 43,655 ha or that throughout 2023 they had calcined 89,000. If we look back, at the last decade, there was only one more disastrous exercise than the current one: 2022, when at this point of the year they had burned Around 215,000 hectares. Is the whole country the same? No. The flames have punished to a greater or lesser extent Andalusia, Estremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia and the regions of Valencia and Madridto quote only some examples, but there is a specific area of the Peninsula that is suffering from the dentelladas of the fire with special virulence: the triangle formed by the provinces of Ourense, León and Zamora. Tan a Fast look To Google Maps to check it. There is Chandrexa de Queixa, which has affected more than 17,000 ha And it is already considered The most destructive of the history of Galicia. Also that of Mozyuelas de la Carballedathat passed from Zamora to León and has calcined several dozens of hectares. Looking for the causes. The big question is … why do that region hit so much fury? What are the causes? The question is interesting because it is not an isolated phenomenon: there are populations, like Castromil’sbetween Ourense and Zamora, who have resigned themselves to deal with fire every year. For the impact of the flames on the ‘triangle’ between Zamora, León and Ourense He wondered Recently in X Francisco M. Azcárate, professor of ecology, biology and environmental sciences. And its entry response is interesting: the succession of forest fires in that region of the Peninsula cannot be attributed to pyologists or negligence. Or that is not the only cause at least. In the background there are more complex structural reasons that have to do with the characteristics of that area or changes in the use of the territory. Meteorology earrings. “Climatically, the area fits perfectly with ecosystems that, naturally, have a high frequency of important fires,” Azcárate starts Before aiming the influence of the rainy season, during which biomass accumulates, and dry, marked by the mass of dry and very flammable vegetation. To this factor is added the frequency of fires in humid Mediterranean climates or the effect of climate change, which influences extreme temperatures and “extends the risk season.” The fire wave has in fact coincided with Another heat which began in early August and that already stands out as one of The most durable Since at least the 70s, which is when the historical Aemet starts. Although it is not an inflexible guideline, experts have not been warning that the fight against forest fires is especially complex when the known as the known as ‘Rule 30-30-30’: Temperatures above 30ºC, wind gusts of more than 30 km/Hy a humidity of less than 30%. Click on the image to go to Tweet. The perfect cocktail. Not only do climatic conditions or heat wave influence, which has spread far beyond the Ourean-Leon-Zamora triangle. Another of the keys that explains the impact of fires in that concrete area of the Peninsula must be sought, Azcárate points out, on the ground and orography. “The region has acidic and little fertile soils. This favors more flammable plant communities, due to the composition of plants’ tissues,” The expert reflects. At stake also enters the orography of that region, marked by an “abrupt relief” that hinders the access of “erratic and strong” seals that can abruptly change the direction of the flames. A few years ago Civio analyzed The main fires recorded in Spain throughout the 2007-2016 decade and discovered that in almost 80% of cases (153 of 196) the gusts exceeded 30 km/h, which could influence the evolution of fire. Something more than weather and orography. Not everything is climate, meteorology, orography or soil characteristics. In the fires it is influencing another factor than You are talking a lot During the last days: the depopulation of the rural one (which is usually accompanied by the abandonment of fields and a change in forest management), something that starts from the provinces of Ourense, Zamora and León They know well. “In general in Spain there has been rural, population and peoples abandonment and depopulation is a food for fires,” Celso Coco warnsfire expert and forest management in The opinion-the mail of Zamora. And what does that suppose? “The consequence is that in those areas where it was worked, it was grown, it was granted, natural vegetation has been installed and there is no use of them, which has increased the forest area greatly. This continuity of vegetation, without management, results in a vulnerable landscape,” duck. In their opinion, forest fires “have existed, exist and exist” and constitute “a natural process”, but changes in the landscape have affected their impact: where they were previously found with land … Read more

We can reach a black hole with a billion euros and a nave of the size of a clip

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The boldest ideas are those that often drive the greatest jumps in human knowledge. AND bold It is the best way to describe this study supported by the National Foundation of Natural Sciences of China. The objective: travel to the darkest secrets of the universe. Short. A astrophysicist from Fudan University, in Shanghai, has designed a plan to send a micronave the size and weight of a clip to the black hole closest to the Earth. The propulsion method? A potent system of lasers fired from our planet. Led by Cosimo Bambi, the exotic proposal intends Test the limits of Einstein’s relativity theory in one of the most extreme environments of the cosmos. Although technology to carry it out is not yet developed, advances in nanotechnology, laser propulsion and detection of black holes could come true in the coming decades. A black hole to discover. The mission of reaching a black hole has two huge challenges. The first is to find a viable goal. The nearest black hole we know, Gaia-Bh1is 1,560 light years. However, our cosmological models tell us that there could be a much closer black hole, “only” 20 or 25 light years of us. “There are new techniques to discover black holes”, Bambi says in a statement. “I think it is reasonable to expect that we can find a nearby one in the next decade.” An odyssey of a century: Once the objective is located, the second challenge will be to get there. Current spacecraft, chemical propulsion, are too slow. The solution proposed by Bambi are nanonaves at a scale of a few grams that only contain a microchip and A solar candle 10 square meters. A set of high -power lasers from Earth could point towards the candle, accelerating the ship to a third of the speed of light. Even at that rate, the trip to a black hole to 20 light years would last for about 70 years. The data to be collected would take another two decades to return to the earth, which places the total duration of the mission around 80 or 100 years. Many reasons to try. If the mission is successful, the experiments that these probes can perform near the black hole would answer some of the deepest unsolved questions of modern physics. Is there really a horizon of events? You could try if the non -return border of a black hole behaves how the theories predict, observing the probe signal while falling towards it. Is Einstein’s general relativity valid? Nanonave’s orbit would be used to detect any Minimum deviation of Kerr’s predictionswhich describes the spacetime around a black hole in rotation. Does the fundamental constants change? The mission could verify whether constants such as fine structure vary in such an intense gravitational field. It would not be cheap. The plan is tremendously speculative. Only the laser system would cost around a billion euros. “It may sound really crazy and, in a sense, closer to science fiction,” admits Cosimo Bambi. However, milestones such as the detection of gravitational waves or the photograph of the shadow of a black hole also seemed impossible in its day. Image | Event Horizon Telescope In Xataka | We have dedicated six years to process images of a black hole to reach a conclusion: Einstein was right

The US hardened their restrictions for Nvidia chips not to reach China. So they are sweeping the black market

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A few days ago Nvidia got what It seemed impossible: That the US government allowed you to sell your H20 GPU very soon to Chinese clients. It was an important turn in the Trump administration policy, which since April had raised his restrictions. Despite the hardness of the sanctions, the plan has had lagoons, according to an investigation of the Financial Times. What happened. The Financial Times has accessed sales contracts, to presentations of companies already involved in the industry and has drawn a conclusion: three months after Trump harden the export control, chips worth $ 1 billion were sent to China. In context, it is a huge figure, if one takes into account that Nvidia entered 17,000 million last year. The process began in May according to the Financial Times, when Chinese distributors began marketing GPU on which restrictions on data centers that work with Chinese Laboratories of AI weigh. The investigation points to something that the US already suspected: Many chips enter from Southeast Asia They are not any chips. The investigation reveals that Chinese AI companies are managing to acquire the GPU B200 of Nvidia, a beast that It already has a successorbut that is a candy to train models. And it promised multiply by four The performance of the desired H100 in MLPERF 4.1. The investigation also mentions the sale of other chips on which export controls weigh, such as the aforementioned GPU H100 and its successor, the H200. The price of a Rack Of eight B200 ready to use is approximately $ 489,000, and has dropped in price since they arrived in China in May. The difference with the sale that is authorized? An extra 50%. Publication in social networks announcing the sale of ASUS H200 racks. Image: Financial Times Nvidia’s position. The company has maintained a defense position to remain in China these months, and it is that this market supposed 13% of its global income. Jensen Huang has been praising the Chinese models of AI At a complicated moment for the company, in need of strengthening its complicity among Chinese companies while just selling chips. In full Dilemma for the US to sell or not sellHuang has placed the power of Huawei’s solutions at the height of the H200. A path full of difficulties. As Nvidia told Financial Times, buying chips clandestine is not something that allows expected yields. Mounting a data center with the GPUs is not just a process of installing parts, but about giving them service and support, something that the company does not supply to chips sold outside authorized channels. According to an operator of a data center, the export control does not prevent NVIDIA chips from reaching China, and what it does is create inefficiencies and “huge profits for intermediaries that assume risks.” Even so, a distributor recognized that “there is no shortage.” The effect of relaxation with H20. With the announcement of the permission to the marketing of the H20 to China, the sales of the B200 and other chips marketed in the black market have fallen, according to several distributors. The reasons are not clear, but buying Nvidia guarantees the aforementioned support as well as a more competitive price. Despite this, there are Chinese distributors announcing stock of the B300, which is not yet manufactured in mass. Image | Nvidia and Flickr In Xataka | The US machinery to win the “war” of AI to China is already underway. And it goes faster than expected

We have detected the greatest fusion of black holes seen to date. It is a problem for our theoretical models

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One of the enigmas that most intrigue astronomers is that of Black holes of intermediate size, those black holes halfway between the holes of stellar mass and the supermassions such as the one that dominates in the center of our galaxy. These are black holes with masses between 100 times that of our sun and those that multiply this star mass by millions. GW231123. A group of Ligo-Virgo-Kagra (LVK) collaboration researchers (LVK) has announced The detection of the greatest clash between two black holes registered to date. The discovery has occurred thanks to the gravitational waves generated by the impact, whose signal has been called GW231123 by those who detected it. November 2023. The name of the signal refers to the date on which it was observed, on November 23, 2023. The study of the detected waves led those responsible for the new study to estimate that the resulting black hole had a dough some 225 times higher than that of our sun. Until now the most massive had been “alone” 140 solar masses. It was in 2021, the GW190521 signal. Estimates indicate that the 2023 signal was the result of the collision between a black hole of 100 solar masses with one of 140 solar masses. That is, only one of the black holes was already as massive as that of the fruit of the largest shock detected so far. From this event not only highlights its magnitude, but also the fact that the speed of rotation of black holes was surprisingly high. A new enigma in heaven. All this planet an important unknown for the team. As they explain, the holes of such mass cannot be formed from the death of a star, at least based on what contemporary physical models say. The only way we know can be formed is through the fusion of smaller black holes. LVK. In 2015, the Ligo experiment made history detecting for the first time the clash of two black holes through the expansion of gravitational waves associated with such a violent event. This pioneering experiment has been company in Europe and Kagra for years (Kamioka gravitational wave detector) In Japan. Together they have already detected more than 300 clashes between black holes. The details of the study They have been presented In the 24th International Conference on General Relativity and Gravitation (GR24) and 16th Conference Edoardo Amaldi on gravitational waves, a joint conference held this week in Glasgow, Scotland. Not so easy to observe. The detection of GW231123 “pushed the limits of both gravitational wave detection technology and current theoretical models,” says the responsible team. Analyzing these types of events through gravitational waves is not easy, but knowing more about them can help us unravel some key mysteries of the cosmos. “Black holes seem to turn very quickly, almost to the limit of what is allowed by Einstein’s theory of relativity,” explained in a press release Charlie today, co -author of the study. “This makes the signal difficult to model and interpret. It is an excellent case study to push the development of our theoretical tools.” Looking for the midpoint. Theoretical tools that perhaps help us reveal the secrets of the elusive black sized black holes. Today we do not know very well how these holes are formed whose mere existence implies the certainty that we still do not know about our universe. In Xataka | What happens if you fall into a black hole, explained in a simple way in an overwhelming NASA simulation Image | POT

A quantum solution for black holes

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The two families of physics They have not spoken for 100 years. Einstein’s general relativity describes with centenary precision The large-scale universe: how the planets, stars and galaxies deform the space-time fabric. On the other hand, quantum mechanics explains the strange and tiny world of subatomic particles. Both theories form the pillars of modern science, but are fundamentally incompatible. Unifying them in a single theory of “quantum severity” is, for decades, The Holy Grail of Physics. New research suggests that the key to achieving this could be hidden in the heart of the more enigmatic objects of the universe: Black holes. The impassable wall of physics. The problem is simple and the time incredibly complex. Quantum mechanics has managed to explain three of the four fundamental forces of nature: electromagnetism, strong nuclear force and weak nuclear force. Gravity, however, resists him. General relativity, our best theory of gravity, falls apart in the most extreme environments of the universe, precisely where quantum effects should be crucial. The clearest example of this rupture is the singularities, the theoretically infinite density points that are found In the center of black holes. For physicists, an infinity in an equation is an alarm signal that indicates that the theory has reached its limit. “We believe that general relativity only works on large or ‘macroscopic’ scales, but that in very short distances, or microscopic scales, it must be replaced by a quantum theory of gravity,” He explained to Space.com Theoretical physicist Xavier Calmet, author of a new study published in Europhysics Letters. A new recipe for black holes. Until now, string theory was the main candidate for this unification, in the absence of experimental verification. But Calmet and his team have adopted a different and surprisingly effective approach. Instead of a complete and finished quantum theory, they have used what is known as the “effective action of Vilkovisky-Dewitt” to calculate universal quantum corrections that should be applied to Einstein’s equations, regardless of the underlying theory. When applying these corrections, the team discovered something fascinating: in addition to black holes that arise from general relativity, there must also be holes born from “quantum solutions.” And it is not simple adjustments to the black holes we already knew. “They are completely new black holes that exist in a world of quantum gravity,” explains Calmet. New theoretical objects that emerge from the same mathematics, but with a quantum “flavor.” What all this means. Einstein’s relativity works great for huge things such as planets and galaxies (a continuous world); and quantum mechanics, for the tiny, like atoms (a world to jump). When it comes to explaining black holes, relativity predicts a singularity, an infinite density point that, in practice, tells us that the theory does not work anymore. What these physicists have done is to use a mathematical “patch” to add the basic quantum rules to relativity. This patch is the action of Vilkovisky-Dewittdeveloped by physicists Georgy Vilkovisky and Bryce Dewitt. In doing so, they not only fixed the “error”, but discovered that the new rules allow the existence of a completely new type of black hole, one that simply could not exist according to Einstein’s old rules. Can we ever see them? The study details how these solutions can be built near the events horizon, the border from which nothing can escape the black hole. Although these quantum solutions are theoretically different, distinguishing them from their classic counterparts is, for now, an almost impossible task. The most significant differences manifest very close to the horizon of events, a region that we cannot observe directly. “The astrophysical black holes that we are observing well could be described with our new solutions instead of those of general relativity,” Callmet concludes. “As both theories match great distances, it will be difficult to propose evidence capable of differentiating between the two types of solutions.” The theory shows that it is possible that There are black holes within a frame of quantum gravity. But the secrets of quantum gravity remain fiercely saved by these cosmic titans: the response to the greatest enigma of modern physics is not in a particle accelerator, but quietly orbiting in the darkness of space. Image | POT In Xataka | The Webb Telescope has observed quasars where they should not be. Something fails in the theory of black holes

The reason why electricity took more than 15 hours to restore 100% in Spain: the feared “Black Start”

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The Iberian Peninsula went out at 12:33 of April 28. In just five seconds, two southwest disconnections of the peninsula They removed more than half of the instant demand from the network. The frequency collapsed and interconnection with France jumped by instability. Spain stayed at 0 MW and 0 Hz, never seen. Resting the service was the real challenge. 15 hours of surgical work. At 03:30 on Tuesday, Red Eléctrica, the Spanish electrical system operator, announced that 99.95% of the demand was covered again (100% was not reached until the afternoon in the afternoon). Spain starred in greater practical exercise of replacement of a European network From the great continental blackout of 2006, The first on this scale from a country that obtains its energy mainly from renewable sources. The dreaded Black Start. Turn on the light out of nowhere, start the zero power grid. With 50 million users, Spain has faced One of the most challenging cases of “Black Start” They are remembered. He needed 15 hours because he had to go step by step, first starting the most flexible plants: hydroelectric plants, enabled for Black Start with diesel structure to feed pumps, valves and control systems). Mainless Spain redeemed. With 10% of the Spanish mix and 25% of the Portuguese, the pumping hydraulics was the first ammunition: The hydroelectric plants of the Muela and Aldeadávila They synchronized in three minutes, moving from zero to 3 GW. Each central created its 50 Hz “island” (the frequency at which the turbines have to turn) before introducing load. Red Electric was connecting the turbines one by one and introducing load in a dosing way so as not to stop them. Gas for climbing. With the nuclear off (except for the imported of France, which provided 1.4 GW of power in the replacement), the gas plants became the backbone of the network before reincorporating renewables. Monday’s wind was almost calm and the photovoltaic disappeared at nightfall, so the weight fell on water and gas. Morocco injected several hundred MW who were critical to start plants in Andalusia. As for nuclear. The automatic cut of five of the seven reactors generated a radio traffic jam: the xenon-135 accumulated after a sudden stop absorbs neutrons and blocks the reaction for 24-48 h. 32 hours after the blackout, No nuclear had yet been synchronized. That 3-4 GW hole synchronous forced to squeeze hydraulics and gas and delayed total recovery. The fuses jumped. When the blackout occurred, more than 70% of the generation was renewable (37% solar, 32% wind). 3.4 GW of nuclear energy, 1.6 GW of cycles and 1.4 GW of cogeneration provided the synchronous inertia of the network, but were not enough to compensate for the disconnection of two stations. Neither The interconnected network was enough to sustain the frequency (only 3 GW with France and 700 MW with Morocco). The substations acted as giant fuses against imbalance and isolated the network to avoid catastrophic damage. That is why it is said that Spain and Portugal are energy islands, despite being in the same network as the rest of European countries. Some lessons. With high renewable quotas, which They do not have the inertia of other energy sources To stabilize the network, it takes a greater resilience than the European electricity grid. In other words, invest in investors at network level, batteries and renewable synchronous (biomass or more pumping hydraulics). As well as in better interconnections. All this is planned, but it was not on time to avoid the blackout and the Black Start. Image | Electric Red In Xataka | We have just lived the first great blackout of the renewable era. The debate is now how to get the last one

Black Swans. This blackout is a candidate to be

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How can we prepare for the unpredictable? We are already planning a trip or starting a business, or even if we are quietly fringing some potatoes at home, being Prepared to eventualities You can save us more than one disgust. For a person on foot, and even for a company, dealing with a blackout can enter a category of “foreseeable unforeseen”: we do not know when they will occur but we know from past experiences that it is likely that at one time or another, our light will leave for a while. However, it is likely that people in charge of managing the peninsular power Bru what this week With the same attitude. From his point of view, what happened was something never seen beforea good candidate to catalog like what we call a “black swan.” First of all, what is that of the black swan and where it comes from. The concept was popularized back in 2007, in the book The Black Swan: the impact of the highly unlikely, written by Nassim Taleb, expert in statistics and finance. In the work as essayist of This controversial thinker The concept of uncertainty has a great weight, and the idea of ​​black swan is perhaps the zenit of uncertainty. We are not talking about The 2010 movie Directed by Darren Aronofsky and starring Natalie Portman, nor of the animal (although the theory owes its name to this animal). A black swan is an event with two characteristics. The first is that it is a possible but so unlikely event that it is unique in its category, an event that would be unthinkable although in retrospect it could seem even predictable. The second is that it is an event of great impact, we are not talking about a currency that falls singing while we play with it boring. The origin of the name is, we said, in the animal. And, as Taleb explains in his book, until the arrival of European explorers to Australia in the seventeenth century, for the West Swannes were white and talking about a black swan would be limited to the context of the fantastic. Everything changed with the arrival in Oceania and the appearance of dark swans. A Clear example of such an event It would be that of the attacks perpetrated on September 11, 2001. Although on that date the kidnappings of airplanes by terrorists were not something strange, the idea of ​​crashing these vehicles against buildings to maximize the damage caused would have been difficult to imagine. The event would not need to point it out, it also had global consequences. The Covid-19 Pandemia also had global consequences, a global epidemic caused by a until then unknown virus could be seen as a black swan (and in fact There are those who see it like this). However, the idea of ​​a global pandemic, even the idea that it could be caused by a respiratory virus, was not so remote and many raised it as a matter not of “yes”, but of “when.” The 1919 flu pandemic experience, or epidemics such as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) not only look a posteriori As warnings, but they were already seen before the pandemic. Prepare for the unpredictable Taleb, an expert in statistics, explains that when we try to estimate the probabilities of an event, in general we have to rely on what we already know. For example, if we want Estimate probability that a new company Continue active A year after its creation, we can serve statistics based on companies founded in the previous years. If we want to predict if a team will win a game, we can also back and attend to the statistics of the team and the rival. That is precisely the limitation of statistical tools: it is among extremely difficult and impossible to estimate the probability of an event that has never been given. Well, what about the blackout? Undoubtedly, the April 28 blackout has been an event of important consequences that We will still have to evaluatethe damages caused by the cut not only the economic but probably had ramifications in other contexts. That part is out of place, the Great question Now is whether this was an unpredictable event. We may not be able to answer this question with certainty yet since, although little by little we are going Knowing new details On what happened, it is still early to know with certainty the causes of this great blackout. As for the dimension, we can find comparable precedents if we look outside of Spain, such as the Italian blackout of 2003 either The one suffered by Texas in 2021. However, those great blackouts were, in a certain sense, conventional. In the Italian case, the cut of a high voltage line that connected Switzerland with Italy fell, dragging with him the entire network of the transalpine country. In the case of Texas, the cold and its impact on gas electricity generation was the cause that the system could not with the demand for electricity of the southern state. In Xataka | How to load your mobile battery when there is no electricity Image | Quartl

While reservoirs from all over the country reach record figures, Spain still has a black dot of the drought: Almería

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For eighth consecutive week, Spanish reservoirs have risen again. It was to be expected: the same rains that have “bitter” vacations to many during Holy Week are now becoming good water news. For the first time in many years, Spain has exceeded the 75% barrier in reservoir water. And yet, this enthusiasm does not reach a very specific area of ​​the country: The Southeast. Where the rains do not arrive. If we see an autonomous map of the country’s water reserves, we will see all of Spain in blue (light, medium or dark). All except Murcia; That, at 36.49% of its capacity, it can only appear in colors close to orange or red. And, although Reservations have grown a lotthe safe basin is still very touched with 10 points less than the historical average. For more Inri, it cannot be said that it is a management problem (although the management of the basin has always been a controversial issue). It is something that extends, as I say, to all southeast. The province of Alicante is at 31.75%. That is to say, above the terrible data last yearbut without reaching the average of the last decade. And then there is Almeria. Almería? What happens in Almeria? That hides among the excellent data from Andalusia (60.59%) and the more than good of the Andalusian Mediterranean basins (55.54%), The province of Almería has a huge problem: its reserves are 11.16%. Slightly better than a year ago, but still below Lbetter 2024 data. Almería’s problem with water is not new. That’s true. If we look, the historical average of the last 10 years in The province is 13.13%. Very slightly above the current figures. And we talk about a place with a huge weight of water intensive industries (agriculture and tourism); one that, in addition, is suffering like nobody Desertification problems and overexploitation (and pollution) of aquifers. As They said a few weeks ago from Ecologists in Action“Seeing Llover away the ghost of drought”, but in areas like Almeria that drought has been anywhere. It is a false impression that only management can difficulty. Lose the water war. At least there are three Almeria regions in which drought not only persists, but It is completely chronified: Níjar, Sierra de los Fizodes and El Levante. And that we talk about the Spanish province that adds the greatest number of rafts of different sizes and characteristics (27,000according to the latest estimates). In 1987, “the first reports on the deterioration of the aquifers of the Dalías field were announced, the point where intensive agriculture was born.” And the problem has only increased: “Every year, Almería starts its agricultural campaign with a structural deficit of around 200 cubic hectometers.” The story is simple, too simple. Almería wanted to become the great laboratory against desertification, but has become a battle territory. A battle that little by little We are losing. Image | Alicia Camacho In Xataka | Arid soils are devouring Almeria, Murcia and Alicante faster than we expected. And it does not seem that we can stop it

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