an anomaly of up to 15 degrees never seen since 1950
Right now, as I write this, “there is the possibility that next week’s temperatures will be Record”. That is, “the highest recorded in Spain since 1950” for that date. The American model, without going any further, It is 46 degrees for areas of Portugal and Extremadura. What there is no doubt is that a “very extreme” warm episode is coming with anomalies between 10 and 1 degrees above normal. I repeat because it is difficult to assimilate: between 10 and 15 degrees. At this point in June 2026, the only discussion is whether we will see the first heat wave of the year. A debate that does not focus on the heat we are going to experience (which, except in areas affected by storms, will be a lot), but on how long the extreme event will last. What is going to happen? In principle, as explained Álvaro Oliver“a ridge will spread from the Sahara that will practically reach the polar circle.” The consequence of having a “great subtropical advection, with temperatures at 850 hPa close to 30°C” is that, “on the surface, 40°C will be reached in many points and will be widely exceeded in the valleys.” It is true that “no need to take it for granted maximum temperatures” because there will be convection, cloudiness and “stormy spells that generate intense gusts of wind.” In other words, the warm advection will probably not be as “stable” as the last one and that will be especially noticeable in the western Cantabrian. However, the resulting picture is dramatic. What can we expect? In terms of temperatures (and beyond an unprecedented crisis in the south of France), maximums around or above 35 ºC in the middle of the week even on the Northern Plateau and the possibility of 40 ºC in the interior of the southern half. This, however, refers to the most intense phase of the phenomenon. What worries experts is that many scenarios maintain the warm anomaly throughout the last fortnight. Hence the doubt persists about whether or not there will be a heat wave. To do this, the extreme temperatures have to last three days. Either way, this is real. Whether or not there is a ‘heat wave’ will be a technical question. The important thing is that the signal is there: the heat waves in Spain they doubled their frequency in 2011-2020 compared to each of the previous decades since 1975 and appear earlier and earlier. June 2025 was cool, but we already have the heat knocking on our door here. What does all this imply? Plus the heat is already here. It’s a wake-up call: the first extreme events of the season They are always the most dangerous. Neither our houses, nor our clothes, nor our physiology are completely adapted. And that, in people with health problems (or very exposed to heat) can be a top priority health problem. Image | Tropical Tidbits In Xataka | We have not known for 30 years why there is an area of the Atlantic that cools while the planet burns. Now we have an idea