If China attacks Taiwan, Russia and North Korea will also do so … but to Europe

An interview of the New York Times It has opened the possibility of a scenario that concerns a large number of nations. NATO general secretary Mark Rutte, explained The closest thing to a chess board where the movement of a key piece produced a geopolitical earthquake of extraordinary dimensions, according to the leader, everything would begin if China finally decides Attack Taiwan.

What would come later would be the closest thing to world war.

The context. The extensive interview He came to a key point: the fear of an escalation of Chinese military intervention on the island of Taiwan It has increased drastically He launched his invasion On a large scale of Ukraine. The approach: the war has served as possible model How both taipéi and the international community could answer if Beijing decides to invade.

Of course, Rutte took the opportunity to spread the message we listen to incessantly: rearmamentbut from a disturbing perspective.

Routte word. “There is more and more awareness, and let’s not be naive about it: if xi jinping attack Taiwan, he would first make sure his smallest partner in all this, Vladimir Putin, and say: ‘Hey, I will do this and I need you to keep them occupied in Europe attacking NATO territory'”, Routte declared.

“It is very likely that this is how this advances. And to dissuade them, we need to do two things. One is that it, collectively, is so strong that the Russians never do it. And the second, collaborate with the Indo -Pacific, something that President Trump is promoting vehemently,” added.

The strategic clamp. We have coming counting These months. As the military pressure China on Taiwan reaches levels unprecedentedthat key date of 2027 It is glimpsed on the horizon and, meanwhile, Western strategists begin to fear a more gloomy scenario: than Beijing, when launched into an eventual invasion of the island, activate its Russian partner to open a second front in Europe.

That was about Rutte’s wordsthat this coordination would not be an improvised act, but a deliberate play. They remembered the Analysts on Twz That, although it seems alarmist, the warning fits with the growing alignment between Moscow and Beijing, which not only share strategic interests, but also reinforce each other in their respective wars: Russia with Chinese technical support in Ukraine, and China benefiting from the distraction that represents the European conflict for US military resources.

The 2027 horizon. A few months ago We point that Western intelligence reports agree that both China and Russia would be working with similar temporal horizons. Xi Jinping would have ordered the EPL armed forces to be ready to Take Taiwan in 2027a period supported For the CIA and by The statements of the then head of the IndoPacom, when talking about the call “Davidson Window.”

In turn, the Rutte ownas well as high controls military from Germany and Ukraine, they argue that Russia could reconstitute your abilities To attack NATO territory Towards 2029. That is, by the end of this decade, both powers would be (it does not mean that it will be so) in technical and logistics conditions to open A double front which would test the American reaction capacity. In practice, this would mean that any Chinese offensive on Taiwan It could coincide With a Russian offensive on the eastern flank of Europe, forcing the United States to divide its resources between two simultaneous war theaters.

Pressures on Taiwan. The United States Indo-Pacific Command data (INDOPACOM) leaves no doubt: Chinese military pressure on Taiwan has Increased 300% Annual, with Naval maneuversexercises amphibians, drills landing, rocket and operations releases of aircraft carriers Around the island. Admiral Samuel Paparo warned of a “boiling point” that could crystallize in a real operation if Beijing considers that Washington is too dispersed to respond effectively.

Although some analysts consider unlikely that Russia is ready Right to attack NATO, others recognize that even a credible threat or hybrid war actions could force the United States to mobilize resources preventively. And the simple expectation of conflict would already be enough to dilute the American response capacity in the Pacific.

Iran and North Korea. Beyond Russia, experts agree that China has other “saturation actors” to divert US attention and media. The recent offensive With B-2 Spirit bombings on Iranian nuclear facilities, it shows that Washington already has part of its arsenal committed in the Middle East. The maintenance of Two groups of aircraft carriers In the region, along with the sustained war Against the hutis In Yemen and the constant tension with Iran, they already suppose a drainage considerable operation.

To this is added the latent threat North Koreawhose structural dependence on China makes it a strategic pawn willing to sow chaos if Beijing demands it. Neither Pyongyang nor Moscow would have to launch into a total war: it would be enough with actions of “Gray Zone” Sufficiently to force a reaction from the United States and its allies, dispersing strength, anticipating conflicts and undermining the logistics and tactical concentration that would require a Taiwan effective defense.

Wear strategy. The key to the scenario that is emerging is not in the immediate brute force, but in asymmetric deterrence. China knows that a Taiwan invasion is not simply a military operation, but a total geostrategic bet. To have any chance of success, It must guarantee that the United States cannot concentrate your forces quickly in the region.

Russia, North Korea and even latent conflicts in the Middle East are part of this architecture. In that context, a weakened, distracted or forced to defend their eastern flank while Washington has to operate on several fronts, would offer the “Window of opportunity” that Beijing needs. Hence the revitalization of the European rearmethe reinforcement of the Defenses in Finland and Poland, and the Increase in spending Military in almost all the countries of the Alliance, are not only reactive measures against Russia, but essential elements of the strategy to also deter China.

Washington and unpredictable deterrence. The Trump administration has oscillated between military aggressiveness and strategic unpredictability. The decision to bomb MOP of 13,600 kilos I could have had a Dispassional effect Immediate in China. Analysts Like Zack Cooper They consider that Beijing, seeing Trump’s disposition to use force without prior notice, could be shown more cautious In his calculations on Taiwan.

At the same time, Trump He has reaffirmed His commitment to the defense of the island through an increase in sales of weapons to Taipéi. However, too He has questioned The usefulness of NATO and has demanded greater military expense to European allies, which has generated uncertainty about the strength of the American commitment in the case of a dual conflict. This ambiguity of which talk later Last week it can function as a deterrent tool, but also runs the risk of promoting calculation errors in Moscow or Beijing.

Prepared for whatever comes. The Russian threat on the old continent is not trivial. In fact, he said The Financial Times This morning that the port of Róterdam, the largest in Europe He is preparing For this possible conflict reserving space for military ships, coordinating with the port of Antwerp and adapting its infrastructure to receive armament cargoes from the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.

The measures are part of a broader European strategy that includes that Rearme plan of up to 800,000 million euros and an increase in defense expenditure. The port has already handled military material in past conflicts, but for the first time it will have docks dedicated to it and regular amphibious military exercises.

The worst possible scenario. In short, after Scenario raised By NATO, the central point of the strategic debate points to whether the United States could sustain A simultaneous conflict In Europe and Asia. Add a simultaneous European front, or even a credible threat of conflict In Finlandthe Balkans or The Baltic Seawould tension the US capacity to the limit. The current industrial, logistics and political capacities do not guarantee that Washington can react with the necessary rapid and forcefulness on both fronts.

Therefore, beyond maneuvers, treated or rhetorical deterrence, what is at stake is a reconfiguration of Western military power, one in which Europe seeks to stop being a security consumer to become In active supplier of stability, releasing resources North Americans for its greatest challenge: contain China in the Indo-Pacific.

Image | BORN, Nara, Allied Joint Force Command Brussum, Picryl

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