2025 is being the year in which OpenAI has ceased to be a technology company and has become a black hole that attracts capital, expectations and the destiny of companies that move billions, with a ‘b’. Sam Altman has designed a scenario where there are only two possible outcomes: AGI for them or collapse for everyone.
Why it is important. OpenAI’s valuation has reached $500 billion as an unlisted company. It has moved more than a billion (also with ‘b’ and it is not a false friend of “billions”) in deals in recent weeks. Those figures only make sense if they get the AGI (Artificial General Intelligence).
If not, everything explodes.
The panoramic. A year ago, a round of 6.6 billion It seemed like an astronomical figure. Nine months later, 40 billion. Now we talk about 100 billion with NVIDIA. And so naughty.
When we reach these magnitudes (and they are repeated) we stop talking about simple capital injections and talk about binary bets on the future of the world economy. The problem is that these figures have dragged other giants to the same precipice.
The backdrop. Microsoft was the first to get hooked. Then he considered divorce and since then They are still together, but sleeping in separate beds. Furthermore, OpenAI has achieved something more dangerous: chaining Oracle, AMD and above all NVIDIA, the most valuable company on the planet on the stock market. If OpenAI clears its throat, all NVIDIA knobs jangle. And if NVIDIA falls, it drags down the S&P 500.
The domino effect would reach pension funds, corporate spending and the US GDP. And from there, a chain effect for the economy of the rest of the world.
behind the scenes. NVIDIA is not only funding OpenAI, it is also guaranteeing some of the debt the startup needs to build its own data centers. Is circular money:
- NVIDIA sends money in exchange for shares.
- OpenAI uses it to rent chips from NVIDIA.
- And those contracts allow NVIDIA to take on more debt to continue financing OpenAI.
A loop that only works as long as the music continues playing. When the Titanic began to sink, the orchestra’s musicians were forced to continue playing.
Yes, but. AI already works. It is already transforming sectors. Nobody doubts it. You don’t need to be AGI to have value. The problem is that OpenAI does need AGI to justify these insane valuations. They have set up a structure where any slowdown, any sign of doubt, will trigger panic.
The money trail. Altman has found in Masayoshi Son to the perfect partner. The SoftBank founder has a history of big bets blowing up and miraculous saves (Alibaba, ARM). The Altman-Masa combination is a capital cannon pointing skyward. But it is also a detonator: if they fail, the explosion will be proportional to the ambition.
According to Altman’s analysis, OpenAI has to beat Google before the latter’s TPUs hit the market and change the rules of the game. That’s why the rush. That’s why Atlas. That’s why the agreements with Broadcomconversations with Intel, promises to AMD. It’s not just about building the best AI, it’s about surviving until you get it.
The big question. What if another macroeconomic event stops everything before superintelligence arrives? OpenAI is racing against the clock, it needs AGI before the economy trips over its own shadow.
Meanwhile, the market rewards these alliances with instant increases. Oracle has multiplied its value just by announcing agreements with OpenAI. Capitalism of expectations: benefits are no longer needed, only promises of a future that does not yet exist. The same thing happens to others because OpenAI is the new King Midas.
Decisive moment. This is no longer a bubble that can burst. It is a bet that can fail. And the difference matters. A bet drags down everything around it. OpenAI is already too big to fail without causing a cataclysm. Which makes it probable an Intel-type state bailout if things go wrong.
Altman knows that many AI companies will disappear when the euphoria ends. Only the largest will survive. OpenAI plays at being so big that it has to be rescued. It’s already happened with the dotcoms‘. It can happen again.
OpenAI has forced a binary scenario: either we achieve AGI or we face a brutal recession. AI works, transforms, improves processes. But that is no longer enough. We need trillions in value created. And if they don’t arrive in time, the collapse will be rapid. And ugly.
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Featured image | OpenAI, Alexander Gray
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