The international wine market was already broken, but a single idea has put it against the ropes: 200% tariffs

13%. That is the magical figure because, given the uncertainty of what will happen to the tariffs, that is what the “main consumer country in the world“For Spanish wine. In 2024, to get an idea, they were sent 97 million liters valued at almost 400 million of euros.

That’s why The announcement of a 200% tariff and the letter of the United States wine alliance (USWTA) recommending “Sorted to US companies that They suspend all the shipments of wine, liquors and beer from the EU “has fallen like a jug of cold water in a sector that was already very scrambled.

And that has not even been a big surprise. In December 2024, after Trump’s choice, Exports fired 23%. And, during these months, many Spanish wineries have been protecting preventively anticipating the sending of reserves to American soil.

What has surprised has been the entity of the coup: no one expected a 200% tariff and, although was suspended, As I pointed out Jose Luis Lapuente, general director of the Denomination of Origin of Rioja, “much more harmful than tariffs itself is uncertainty, not knowing.”

That is precisely what is behind the USWTA letter: despite its efforts so that tariffs do not apply to goods that are already in transit, the US government has refused to give a clear answer what it will happen. If companies do not suspend shipments, they could meet huge losses overnight.

“Deep concern” Last Thursday, the Brussels Regions Committee hosted an emergency meeting of the intergroup of wine to ask the commission to “take out the wine from the tariff war.” And, a priori, it seems that the pressures have had an effect because the union left out of his countermeasures to wine, sparkling and the American bourbon.

In this context, it is not only to avoid more reprisals from the White House and prevent European wine sales from collapseing in the US, it is about Protect huge investments that the sector (and union) have done in the North American market during the last decade.

“The tariffs announced by the US are totally unjustified in the particular case of the wine if we consider that currently the tariff difference between the rates that apply the EU and the US is minimal,” reasoned the general director of the Spanish Federation of Wine, José Luis Benítez. However, we have already seen in recent days that the Trump administration strategy is difficult to understand.

In fact, it is a measure that does not convince anyone … “This will be great for wine and champagne businesses in the United States,” Trump wrote when he threatened with the 200%tariff. However, not all American producers They agree. Because, although it is true that the price increases can ‘rekindle’ the interest in the broths of the country, we talk about a fragile sector, overloaded and very touched by the fires and droughts of the main producing area, California.

Not only that. As John Williams explained at CNNfounder of Frog’s Leap, a winery in the Californian Valley of Napa, US wineries are just a very small part of the commercial chain. If tariffs harm distributors, the problem will be rapidly generalized. In the end, “we all depend on the same distributors. The health of these companies is important for wineries around the world,” said.

… and that can become counterproductive. Because, the American tariff system has peculiarities that can end up running the market completely. The clearest example is that “the US customs and border service. offers reimbursements of certain rights, taxes and fees paid for imported items, provided that the company exports similar articles. ”

That is, the big distribution platforms can end up flooding the most expensive European products market as a strategy to compensate for the price of tariffs.

Although, in reality, the background problem is another. That world wine is going through a very bad time. In September 2023, Luigi Moio, president of the International Wine Organization, climbed into a gallery in the heart of La Rioja and said “Vineyard’s start was something inevitable.”

And it’s not just La Rioja, of course. In France (which can serve us as proxy of what happens in the international sector), already It has been assumed That 100,000 hectares of vineyards will have to be started – in fact, they have launched a plan to start about 30,000.

It is the only way that the sector finds for a devilish situation: that the sector does not stop growing, but These floods “They are not enough to cover production costs and farmers’ needs.” And in that context, tariffs arrive. Are we facing a?

Image | Chuttersnap | Mika Baumeister

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