Aemet’s big question is if 2025 will definitely end the drought

Today, the great meteorological issue of Spain has names and surnames: the May bridge. Will it heat? Will it be cold? Will it rain? Will it sunbathe? The good news is that we have the models working. The bad is that this time they do not serve much.

As Aemet explainsin recent days the chances of raining during the first days of May have been exactly the same as the chances of the sun shine and it is hot. The same.

But that’s not the worst.

A matter of time. And, although it is difficult for us to accept uncertainty is something that usually happens. “This is the atmosphere”, Roberto Granda says With all reason. In the background: it is inconvenient, but it is a matter of time. In fact, predictions begin to leave the balance to the rain side. And in a few days, we will have a much clearer scenario.

Trends, on the other hand, paint another month for water. Although as the month ends, the forecasts are lightening the amount of rainfall, the European center Paint a good part of the Peninsula With more rains than normal throughout the month.

If right, we will chain three months of relatively anomalous rains. Above all, if we compare them with the springs of recent years. What implications does all this have?

Has drought dead? If the great weather question is May, the weather is drought. Because, Despite black pointsthe truth is that water reserves They are already 75.56%. That is, more than 10% above the historical average of the last decade. If 2024 laid the drought, 2025 is determined to end her.

After all, we came from years where spring was very dry, very warm, very stable and that turned increasingly long summers into a counterreloj race against it “zero day“: The day we simply run out of water.

The rains of these months change the stage completely. The authorities are already levacing all measures against drought And they prepare Transvase equivalent to double the annual consumption of an entire autonomous community.

The problem is that, in much of the country, it has been the longest drought period of modern history. The country’s wounds go beyond water in swamps. Not surprisingly, in recent years, deforestation has done only devour southern Spain.

The end of the drought (of a long period that began in 2013) is excellent news; But above all, it is a very precious time to rethink in front of the existential threat of climate change. That is the third big question: if we will do it.

Image | ECMWF

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