At the beginning of the 20th century, during the battle of tsushimathe Russian imperial fleet took more than seven months to circle half the planet to confront Japan. The result was so disastrous and fast that several powers suddenly understood an idea: in the Asia-Pacific, controlling the sea could decide the global balance long before a total war began.
Supersonic missiles off the US and Japan. It we count last week. The South China Sea is becoming a huge military board where Beijing wants to make it clear that it is willing to answer directly to any attempt to surround its area of influence.
While the United States, the Philippines and Japan develop the largest Balikatan maneuvers of recent years, China has now responded by sending H-6 bombers armed with YJ-12 supersonic missilesJ-16 fighters equipped with anti-ship missiles and several naval groups around Luzon and Scarborough Shoal. The message is difficult to ignore: Beijing wants to show that it can deploy air and naval force heavy right in front of a military bloc led by Washington and Tokyo without abandoning the initiative in the region.
Already looks like a war rehearsal around Taiwan. The Balikatan maneuvers have changed enormously in recent years. What were once relatively conventional exercises between the United States and the Philippines have morphed into focused simulations in maritime settingsattacks against major adversaries and possible conflicts around Taiwan and the South China Sea.
The full participation of Japanese forces and the presence of ships from Australia and Canada reflect the extent to which Washington is trying to build a regional network capable of responding to China in the event of a crisis. Beijing interprets it as a direct threatespecially since several of these maneuvers take place near routes and positions that China considers essential to protect its access to the Pacific.
Japan has crossed a symbolic line. A few hours ago one of the movements that most irritated Beijing during the maneuvers took place, and it was not only the American presence, but the increasingly active role of Japan. for the first time since World War IIJapanese forces launched abroad a Type 88 anti-ship missile during military exercises in the Philippines, something that China interprets as a clear sign of Japanese “remilitarization.”
Although the missile can be used for defensive purposesBeijing considers that deploying this type of weaponry outside Japanese territory breaks part of pacifist logic that Tokyo maintained for decades after 1945. Furthermore, the context further aggravates the tension: Washington also fired Tomahawk missiles from the Philippines using the Typhon systemcapable of hitting targets hundreds or even thousands of kilometers away, potentially including mainland China itself. For Beijing, the image is disturbing because it reflects how Japan, the Philippines and the United States are beginning to rehearse together a scenario where the Pacific island chains could be transformed into advanced attack platforms and military containment against China.
Two armed H-6 bombers fly over Scarborough Reef in an attempt by Beijing to show its superiority to Manila and its allies amid the Balikatan maneuvers and territorial disputes
H-6 bombers are no longer simple propaganda. Chinese bomber flights over Scarborough Shoal have become relatively commonbut this time the important detail was the weapons. The H-6 appeared with a greater load of YJ-12 supersonic missiles, specifically designed to attack large ships and naval groups.
At the same time, J-16 fighters They escorted the deployment while Chinese ships closely followed the multinational flotilla led by the United States and the Philippines. In other words, Beijing is using these exercises to show something very concrete: in a hypothetical regional conflict, it would try saturate and keep away US naval forces using massive quantities of anti-ship missiles launched from land, aircraft and ships.
China is surrounding the Philippines with layers of military pressure. Beyond the bombers, China deployed the combat group of the Liaoning aircraft carrier and various armed surface groups with Type 055 destroyersconsidered some of the most powerful ships in the Chinese Navy.
One of these groups carried out live fire exercises east of Luzon, precisely in areas that the United States and the Philippines are studying as possible reinforcement routes in the event of war. The Chinese strategic idea is increasingly evident: convert the Philippine maritime environment into a extremely dangerous area for any US attempt to move troops, supplies or reinforcements towards Taiwan or the South China Sea.
Naval warfare is changing because of drones. While showcasing bombers and aircraft carriers, China is also accelerating the adaptation of its navy to a threat that has transformed recent conflicts such as Ukraine or attacks in the Middle East: the drones.
In fact, Beijing has just presented a new naval antidrone system capable of intercepting stealth and very low altitude attacks in complex electronic warfare environments. The tests carried out in the Bohai Sea show the extent to which the Chinese Navy assumes that future naval confrontations will not depend only on large ships and missiles, but also on enormous swarms of drones capable of harassing or destroying much more expensive ships.
The China Sea is filling with signs. The bomber combination with supersonic missilesnext-generation destroyers, aircraft carriers, artificial bases and anti-drone systems reflects something deeper than simple military exercises.
China is preparing an environment where any US intervention around Taiwan or the Philippines would be extremely complexsaturated with aerial, maritime and electronic threats. And the most significant thing is that it is no longer just about propaganda displays: Beijing is testing in the field how to coordinate all those capabilities against real forces from the United States, Japan and their allies in one of the most tense regions on the planet.
Image | CCTV
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