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In this tariff war, China He has decided to get back to the United States with tariffs of 84% to all imports. A blunt response of the Asian giant, which has charged its first victim by crossfire: oil.
Price drop. The price of barrels is below Los 60 dollars and going down. As He explained Energy expert Javier Blas, the oil market is going through a perfect storm: on the one hand, the fall in global demand as a direct consequence of the tariff war, and on the other hand, The answer a few days ago of the OPEC+ to continue producing more, which causes the offer to continue increasing. If this situation extends, it could evolve towards a real supply shock affecting two giants.
The matter is more complex. OPEC+ decided to increase its oil production despite the fall in prices due to tariffs and concerns of a global economic slowdown. The organization I was looking to recover the market share I had lost due to the previous cuts. In addition, the growing production of non -member countries and Failurers of the rules to raise the offer.
It will be very expensive. In all this situation, Saudi Arabia is one of the affected giants because in its recent projects it is diversifying its economy with the initiative, Vision 2030. It is betting on an economic model that is disconnected from oil, but It is still your currency To continue financing their mega -structures, such as Neom.
As have indicated from Reutersthe fall in prices threatens to cut tens of billions of state dollars, as is already being seen in the stock market of the state oil company, Saudi Aramco. The impact is capital, since Riad can be forced to increase his indebtedness or postpone large infrastructure projects. In fact, according to the same news agency, the International Monetary Fund has estimated that Saudi Arabia needs prices greater than $ 90 per barrel to square its accounts.
The other giant. The fall in prices takes with him another great economy ahead: Russia. As He has warned for Reutersthe governor of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, that the escalation of tariff wars represents a clear risk for Russia due to the fall in crude oil prices. In his words, the continuity of the commercial conflict reduces global trade, slows down the world economy and, consequently, decreases the demand for Russian energy resources. In fact, with the current situation of war, the dependence of Moscow of oil and gas is key, but the data is showing how in March 17% fell and it is expected that in April it will continue to descend.
From Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov has acknowledged that the oil market is going through an “extremely turbulent” situation, derived from commercial tension caused by the United States. Meanwhile, the price of raw Urals, the Russian referent barrel, is dangerously approaching to the threshold of 50 dollars By barrel, the lowest level in almost two years. As Oilprice has had accessRussian authorities have indicated that a technical fiscal rule will help mitigate the effects on the budget, but oil prices are in free fall.
Forecasts. The price of oil can continue down with all the situation that is being experienced: wars, sanctions and territorial instability. All this affects perception Investor risk and without a clear OPEC+ response the price falls without brakes.
Image | Javier Colmenero
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