After years of debacle, South Korea has managed to rebound his birth. Now it’s time to find out how the hell has done it

Demographic statistics is nothing more than that: Demographic Statistics. Pure and hard mathematics, with objective and reading data. For years, however, their chronicles in South Korea transmit a dire air, as of announced death. And it’s normal. The country has seen how its birth rate descended to such low dimensions that in 2024 the country had to declare itself in “demographic emergency” and assume officially that it is a “society Super aging“

Now that seems to be changing little by little, which raises two questions: Has Korea achieved out of the demographic hole in which it has been immersed for years? And if so, how? They are key issues for Seoul, but also for other neighboring countries with birth problems, such as China either Japan.

What happened? That against all forecast, South Korea Start to get used to to their demographic statistics arrive accompanied by positive signs. That does not mean that they are good at all, the country has managed to stop its demographic bleeding or its fertility rate stands above “Replacement level”; But they are favorable news after all. And that did not happen for a long time.

A figure: 20,717. The latest data published by Statistics Korea show that in April they were born in the country 20,717 babies8.7% more than 19,059 counted during the same month of 2024. The data is interesting because it leaves several positive readings. The first is that three years ago the number of monthly lights remained below the 20,000 barrier. The second is that this 8.7% growth shows the highest year -on -year increase in the last three and a half decades. You have to go back to 1991 to find another similar percentage.

More babies, more weddings. There are not only more babies. There are also more couples giving the ‘yes I want’. The data Statistics Korea show that in April 18,921 marriages in the country were formalized, which leaves an interannual increase of 4.9%. The data invites optimism for another reason: it is the thirteenth consecutive month in which this indicator is green. It may seem a minor issue, but in the South Korean society couple and birth They go hand in. There are studies that calculate that less than 5% From babies they are born out of marriage.

Coincidence or trend? That is the question that surveys the birth data of Korea. Especially since the last years have been marked by the shadow of the pandemic, which modes to take many couples to postpone their wedding plans or even the decision to become parents. In his favor the country has to They are not the first in positive. Seoul already said goodbye to 2024 with a positive birth rate (the number of births 3.6% increased), something that had not happened for a decade.

Looking for the causes. At this point, the question is obvious: beyond the influence of the pandemic, is there any factor that explains the rebound in birth in the country? The question is interesting for South Korea, but also for other nations that have been dealing with demographic challenges, such as Japan, China, Russia or many European nations, including Spainwhich in recent years has gained population thanks basically to foreigners.

“The increase in births seems to be influenced by the increase in marriages since last year, the growth of the population of women between 30 and 39 years and various birth promotion policies by central and local governments,” Clarify Statistics Korea to the Yonhap News agency. In summary, after the birth rebound in Korea there would be three major factors: more weddings, the effect of the ‘Probebé’ policies and that in the country there are more women in the first section of the thirties.

A concept: echo boombe. At least part of the demographic change would therefore be explained thanks to demography itself. And the key is in a certain group of the cohort of the echo boomers. The Guardian remember That the population born between 1991 and 1995 begins to reach the “ideal” age to marry and have children and that group has grown sensitively. If in 2020 there were about 1.51 million women between 30 and 34 years old, now there are already 1.65 million.

To its possible effect, the wide range of policies that for years have deployed the South Korean authorities (both regional and state) to encourage the formation of couples and birth rate are added. And that includes from the delivery of generous ‘Baby checks’ to the application of Fiscal incentives, parental permitsinitiatives for Improve food of mothers or even appointment programs (with prize included) to form new couples.

Well but not perfect. The latest data from Statistics Korea are good, but they are far from being perfect and of course they do not allow South Korea to launch the bells on the flight. On the contrary. Although birth is emerging, the country’s fertility rate remains at 0.79far from the replacement level that the country needs to keep its population stable without depending on immigration.

In addition, although the number of births with respect to 2024 has increased, they remain clearly insufficient to stop the fall of the national census. The reason? Babies are born, but in the increasingly aging Korean society there are also more deaths. The deaths grew 0.8% year -on -year in April until adding 28,785.

Images | Nathan Q (UNSPLASH) and Tommao Wang (UNSPLASH)

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