Russia and North Korea confirmed In April an open secret: that Pyongyang It is cooperating With Moscow in the War of Ukraine at various levelsincluding from troops to military arsenal. In return, Russia is giving North Korea what longs for: a functional army and a military capacity that could represent a challenge to global strategic balance.
Thus, the strangest thing is the position of South Korea.
Seoul’s silence. I remembered this week The Guardian. Although South Korea reacted rapidly to condemn the launch of ballistic missiles by North Korea in May, his government kept absolute silence when a KN-23 missile North Korean (designed precisely to attack South Korean objectives) hit a residential building in kyiv, Killing 12 civilians.
That omission was not an isolated case: there was no answer when Russia displayed An anti -aircraft system To protect Pyongyang, or when it was learned that Russian instructors They were training to North Korean drones operators in their own territory. All this points, According to analyststo a disturbing lack of understanding by Seoul about the scope of the military transformation that is experiencing North Korea, a fed transformation not (alone) into theoretical exercises, but in the real crucible of war in Ukraine.
A metamorphosis. According to Ukrainian military intelligence, North Korea supplies 40% of ammunition that Russia uses in its offensive against Ukraine. In parallel, Pyongyang has accelerated its own arms production and has sent an initial contingent of 12,000 soldiers to the Russian region of Kursk, a figure that has grown with another 6,000 troopsmilitary engineers, bridge experts and railways, logistics staff, military police, electricians and even interpreters.
Although officially these soldiers unfold in reconstruction tasks, the real gain for Kim Jong-un lies in what their troops They are learning: Modern War, Coordination of Combined Weapons, Management of Recognition and Attack Drones, Electronic War and Technological Systems unknown so far for its Army.
And more. Moscow’s support has also been translated into Technology Transfersincluding improvements in the precision of KN-23 ballistic missilesalready used against urban centers such as Járkov. According to Ukrainian intelligence, North Korean soldiers captured They revealed such an extreme ideologization that they tried to commit suicide biting their own veins to avoid being interrogated. One of them proudly said would return to your country as a hero for having fought in a modern war.
Political calculation It is the other leg that slides. While Zelenski warns directly To South Korea that the time to act is now, before thousands of North Korean missiles and improved drones begin to threaten Seoul or Tokyo, the South Korean authorities seem look. The posture, According to expert Yang Ukresponds to a delicate balance Between strategy, internal policy and economic considerations.
The reason? Openly recognize the danger of North Korean rearmament and his experience in combat would imply have to answer With firm measures (including perhaps sending weapons to Ukraine), something deeply unpopular among the South Korean population. In addition, Lee Jae Myung’s government is committed to a pragmatic foreign policy focused on economic recovery, in a context where Russia was one of its main commercial partners before war.
On the political level, the South Korean ideological division revolves around the position against the north: while the right insists on the rearme and the hardening of the defense, the left Defend the dialogue And he maintains that South Korea has no obligation with Ukraine. The recent political crisis derived from the attempt of declare martial law He has left many officials reluctant to expose themselves publicly or make decisions that may be subject to political attacks.
Between ambiguity and paralysis. If you want, Seoul’s hermeticism can be understood as an extension of its traditional “strategic ambiguity”, an unwritten doctrine of not getting involved in international conflicts that may put their own relations with key actors such as China or Russia at risk.
However, some analysts warn that this position is staying dangerously outdated Faced with threats that evolve in months while military bureaucracy continues to work with planning times that require years.
Godzilla level. He told the Guardian The retired general Chun In-bum that South Korea faces a threat comparable to a “level 10, super Godzilla”, but his institutional apparatus still acts as if only saw a tiger.
In his opinion, the South Korean military doctrine remains anchored in a paradigm prior to the era of drones and is not adapted to face an adversary that is assimilating, In real timethe lessons of the most brutal conflict of the 21st century. From its point of view, the country is in front of a train that approaches at full speed, and is still in time to move or prepare, but not for much more.
Reconfigured future. In short, the Military cooperation Public between Russia and North Korea is already leaving a mark on the Asian power structure. Moscow is integrating Pyongyang into its logistics chain and long -term supplies, in an alliance that could alter regional military balance even after the war ends in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, South Korea seems willing to Keep observing From the barrier, trapped between fear of conflict, economic calculation and a political class immobilized by polarization. The problem is that northern neighbors seem to be gaining experience, technology and internal prestige to full machine for his role in a real war.
And in that scenario, the question no longer points to whether that experience will turn against Seoul, but rather when.
Image | Morning Calm, Getharchive
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