In the last two weeks, sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Tropical Pacific They have dropped abruptly Up to 10 degrees. As Ryan Maue saysIt is a fantastic example of how much the situation can change in a very short time.
But is it something else …?
… is the girl back? That is the great question that meteorologists, agencies and states of half the world are asked. And the first thing is to be clear that it does not have to mean Nothing crucial: “The layer near the surface is very susceptible to the changes caused by the wind due to its fine thickness.”
This is important because, since March 2025, Enso conditions are neutral and (at least, In the last NOAA report on April 10) It was expected to continue until after summer. For October, the chances of remains the net scenario are 50%.
The boy, the girl and everything in the middle. It is worth remembering that what we know as The southern child -scilation (or Enso, for its acronym in English) is a cyclic climate phenomenon (although somewhat irregular) that has great effects on the world climate. If we discount the stations, it is the largest source of annual climatic variations on the planet.
The oscillation is A climate pattern in which two phases alternate: The boy and the girl. This phenomenon is manifested in a strip of the Equatorial Pacific, in the central and eastern areas. In this area, the oceanic surface temperature presents this oscillatory pattern between the warm phase (the boy) and the cold phase (the girl).
How does it affect us? The ocean temperature in this region is associated with unique weather patterns that especially affect South America. In the southeast of the American continent temperatures become warmer than normal. In the same way, they become colder in the northeast. In Ecuador and Peru, less rainfall is expected than normal and the northeastern Brazil, torrential rains
But teleconexions affect meteorological patterns around the world. And in Spain it is usually synonymous with less rains.
But what worries meteorological ones is something else. We must not forget that the girl at the end of 2024 and early 2025 was A surprisingly very soft and short phenomenon. Although this phenomenon is “the great refrigerator of the world” (and thus has worked on other occasions), January was the warmest January of the registry. Its effect was noticed very little.
And if we take into account that the 2023-2024 child was The fifth strongest Since we have records, it seemed to insinuate that Enso could be moving towards a structure much warmer What we are accustomed to. But … what does this mean?
It is true that the models showed that there are almost twice the chances of the girl returningbut at this point in the cycle nobody knows what can lead to the long term. Anyway, most likely the neutral scenario endures more time. However, we must start thinking that the girl is just around the corner.
Image | NOAA
In Xataka | The boy has not yet left and meteorologists are already preparing for the girl: thus influences our climate
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