The question is not whether 2027 will be the warmest year on record, the question is by how much. And the answer lies in El Niño who is approaching us.
Not one, not two; but three independent forecasts They converge on the same idea: 2027 is being given the face of a record. And in recent days, events have happened very quickly: The Child is at the doors and, from what we know so far, it may be a historic event. This means that next year has a very good chance of becoming the warmest year ever recorded, surpassing 2024 and exceeding the 1.5 degrees of the Paris Agreement. But let’s start with El Niño. ENSO (English acronym for El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is a cyclical, although irregular, climate phenomenon that has large effects on the global climate. Great, in fact. If we exclude the stations, it is the most important source of annual climate variability from all over the planet. During the warm phase (which will now affect us), the lack of trade winds that cool the surface of the equatorial Pacific causes the temperature to skyrocket. And so, through different atmospheric teleconnectionsdisrupts all of Earth’s weather systems. The effects in terms of precipitation change depending on the region (“drier than normal conditions in certain parts of the world, while in others it causes more precipitation. Some countries have to deal with major droughts and others with torrential rains”, says AEMET); but no one escapes from the temperature. What is happening with him? That between the forecasts for December 2025 and those for March 2026, everything has accelerated radically. Although La Niña is officially with us, the chances that we will end up with a strong or very strong EL Niño continue to grow. Above all, since researchers discovered this massive surface heating of the equatorial Pacific caused by Kelvin waves and which has already hopelessly eroded the cold pocket of water that we associate with La Niña. This is the most interesting because, as pointed out by Severe Weather Europe and Climate Impact Companythe parallels with other superChildren They are more than patent. What does all this mean? That, barring a miracle, temperatures are going to skyrocket until they exceed the red lines that we had set for ourselves. Each and every one of the last three years have surpassed 1.4 degrees over the pre-industrial period: 2026 will continue along the same lines, but 2027 has everything “in its favor” to settle above 1.5 degrees. That, translated into natural language, means ‘problems’. Issues? ENSO is a highly variable phenomenon and, in general terms, each phase is unpredictable in terms of intensity, duration, time of year and various interactions. However, the effects are sharp. On the one hand, El Niño causes flooding in California, Central America, northern Peru, Ecuador and large areas of northern and southeastern South America; torrential rains in the eastern-central Pacific islands and central Asia. On the other, is synonymous with droughts in southern Africa, the Sahel, Southeast Asia and, apparently, the Valley of Mexico. In Spain, in addition to the temperatures, it usually coincides with a small increase in rain. Could this rapid warming be indicative of something else? But beyond all this, there is something that worries researchers: that this sudden warming is a symptom of changes between the three phases of El Niño that are faster than they have been until now. Nothing is clear, obviously, but the mere possibility makes experts from half the world nervous. Meanwhile, Image | Climate Realanyzer In Xataka | We don’t know anything about El Niño at this time of year. That’s a meteorological mystery… and good news
