Niño Archives - usatoday24

The super Niño of 1877 wiped out 4% of the world’s population. The one that is already beginning to form promises to be worse, but what does that mean in 2027?

May 14, 2026 by usatoday24

In the last week, El Niño has become suddenly real. Media like Washington Post, BBC or countless media in Spanish have begun to compare what is coming to us with El superNiño of 1877, the event that “wiped out 4% of the world’s population.” And, stated this way, it is no wonder; The story is simple: “a Child Godzilla is coming and no one knows if we are ready.” That is why it is important to know what exactly we are talking about and if, in short, “we are all going to die.” How serious is the matter? As we said a few days ago, between March and May the reliability of ENSO forecasts is usually worse than normal (because the equatorial Pacific anomalies go through their transition phase). That makes everyone go with “lead feet”; but the data is worrying. Ben Noll of the Washington Post broadcast on May 8 that the North American Multi-Model Ensemble projected “the strongest El Niño on record” between October 2026 and January 2027, with a peak of +3.1 °C in November. They are big words. Above all, because the ECMWF is along the same lines. In the words of Diego Restrepo, “El Niño is rapidly intensifying, and now 8 out of 10 models point to a super event and four project the strongest one on record.” And this looks like 1877? That is Noll’s thesis and it has been repeated a lot in recent days. However, the comparison is misleading. First, because, although the models are pointing to a historical ENSO, they are still models. That is, we still have no idea what is going to happen. And, to be strict, until the models recover their full potential in June, we will not know well. Second because, as argued by Kimberley Reid, from the University of Melbournethe intensity measured in the central Pacific does not translate linearly into impacts. Taking into account everything that has changed in this century and a half at a climate level, the impacts may be completely different. And thirdly because El Niño of 1877 was not the cause of that catastrophe. Yes, it is true that he set the conditions for it to occur but, as noted Mike Davis in “Late Victorian Holocausts”what killed throughout that quarter of a century were colonial policies. And what happened in 1877? A strange combination between a superNiño, the Indian Dipole and a tremendously warm North Atlantic between the years 1876–78 caused a global drought. The problem is that, in a world governed by imperialism, grain exports did not stop and, as local resilience mechanisms had been dismantled, a famine occurred that killed some 50 million people. But the consensus is clear: no matter how intense El Niño was, it caused the problem of its management. And that, although it may not seem like it, is good news. A few years ago the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published a report with a clear warning: “climate-related disasters” have increased since the 1970s. Specifically, they have multiplied by five over the last five decades. According to their calculations, in the 1980s, 1,400 incidents were recorded – their tables include extreme weather, climate and water phenomena – and in the 1990s, just over 2,200. In the first decade of the 21st century, 3,500 were reached and during the last decade, which spans from 2010 to 2019, it was close to 3,200. Curiously, this increase in the number of disasters has coincided with a decrease in the number of victims. The WMO data is clearalso: from more than 50,000 deaths in the 1970s (incidents basically related to climate and water are taken into account) it went to less than 20,000 in 2010. From an average of 170 a day in the 70s and 80s, it dropped in the 90s to less than a hundred a day and to 40 at the beginning of the 21st century. What will happen? As Restrepo also points out“despite having more information and knowledge, today we have warmer oceans, much more vulnerable ecosystems and collapsing biodiversity. This could generate impacts on health and risks for food, water and energy security.” However, we are more prepared and more importantly we have time to prepare. The ball is in our court. Image | Ben Noll In Xataka | There are more and more extreme weather events. In return, they are leaving fewer victims than ever

models point to worst El Niño in 140 years and one of the key reports is published on Thursday

May 12, 2026 by usatoday24

All the meteorological agencies in the world are looking at the same building on the east coast of the United States. On Thursday, May 14, before markets open, in College Park, Maryland, a room full of oceanographers and meteorologists will discuss a four-page pdf. In that pdf it will be written the future of the planet. It sounds epic, but it’s more prosaic than it seems. It will not be written clearly, sharply, or with absolute certainty: but it will be. What’s in that PDF? NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) publishes the second Thursday of each month your ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. It is the most important report from the global El Niño monitoring systems and, from what the models are saying, the probability of a “very strong” El Niño is going to exceed 25% (and growing). But if it’s monthly… why is this specific report important? Because the index the agency uses to monitor and predict ENSO has changed. Until this year, NOAA I used ONI: an index to measure the sea surface temperature anomaly, but which does not discount the average anomaly produced by climate change. What is expected is that the predictions under the new index (I’ll call it RONI) is significantly less than under normal conditions. If the magnitudes shoot up despite the correction, things will look worse. This report is important because it is the first that will capture the “acceleration” of El Niño at full capacity. What would this entail? Each new NOAA report translates into a cascade of decisions in agricultural, energy, fishing and fire policies. He last major El Niño (2023-24) coincided with 2023 would be the second warmest year on record and 2024 the warmest ever: a strong 2026-27 El Niño could push 2027 to another global record and the impacts are not well measured. It is true that between March and May the reliability of ENSO forecasts drops sharply (because the equatorial Pacific anomalies go through their transition phase); but, in the absence of the June report, this is the best clue we have. What can we expect? We already know that there is a 61% chance that El Niño will be with us between May and July 2026. A 25% chance that it is “very strong.” The important thing to keep in mind is what that means. 61% measures the probability that the equatorial Pacific crosses the threshold of what we understand as El Niño. But, unfortunately, it does not measure how much it will rain in Cádiz, nor what will happen to the crops in Misiones, nor how many hurricanes the Yucatán will see. It is worth remembering that, during the warm phase (that is, during El Niño), the absence of strong trade winds that cool the surface of the equatorial Pacific causes the temperature of that area of the ocean to skyrocket. It is this, through different atmospheric teleconnectionswhich disrupts all the weather systems in the world. What we are not clear about is exactly how. The effects are varied and change depending on the region (“drier conditions than normal in certain parts of the world; while in others it causes more precipitation. Some countries have to deal with major droughts and others with torrential rains”, says AEMET); but when we talk about temperatures there is no doubt: El Niño is synonymous with heat. Everything else remains to be written. Image | Xataka In Xataka | “It is so extreme that it is difficult to believe”: El Niño forecasts depict an event of unprecedented intensity.

There are meteorologists who are already comparing El Niño of 2027 with that of 1877, a catastrophic event that wiped out 4% of the population

April 30, 2026 by usatoday24

We have been worried about El Niño for weeks and rightly so. One by one, the main weather forecasters have been warning us that curves are coming. It is true that on April 24, 2026, the World Meteorological Organization refused to call it “super”, but its refusal is purely terminological: what is clear is that everything indicates that “it could be strong or very strong.” Even Ryan Maue, one of the most controversial meteorologists of the moment (for his criticism of “climate alarmism”), has become nervous and has linked what is coming directly to the El Niño of 1877-78. That event wiped out 4% of the planet’s population. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves and remember what El Niño is. By ‘El Niño’ we refer to a cyclical (although very irregular) climate phenomenon that has great effects on the global climate. Huge, in fact. If we exclude the stations, it is the most important source of annual climate variability from all over the planet. During the warm phase (that is, during El Niño), the absence of strong trade winds that cool the surface of the equatorial Pacific causes the temperature of that area of the ocean to skyrocket. It is this, through different atmospheric teleconnectionswhich disrupts all the weather systems in the world. The effects are varied and change depending on the region (“drier conditions than normal in certain parts of the world; while in others it causes more precipitation. Some countries have to deal with major droughts and others with torrential rains”, says AEMET); But when we talk about temperatures there is no doubt: El Niño is synonymous with heat and, in many places in the world, hunger. That’s what happened in 1877. According to modern reconstructionsEl Niño of 1877-78 was the most intense since 1850: sea surface temperatures remained high for 16 months and, as if that were not enough, that coincided with two warm phenomena (in the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic). That triggered a drought of unusual magnitude. However, the 4% figure is problematic. Not because it’s not realbut because (firstly) it corresponds to a longer period that begins in 1877, but lasts until 1902. And, secondly, because the demographic catastrophe was not a direct effect of the climate, but the result of colonial policies: in many areas of the world they were forced to export grain to the metropolises despite famines. In this sense, transferring the mortality figures from that year to today (even if El Niño reached a similar intensity) is not serious. Although it can be expensive. We must not forget that the super El Niño of 97-98, one of the strongest ENSOs in recent years, caused numerous consequences that lasted for years: the estimates say which caused damage to global economic growth of around 5.7 trillion dollars. That is, we are not talking about an episode from 100 years ago, but something that happened 30 years ago and that draws the framework in which state policies have to work. Above all, because although Spain is not in the first row, the consequences can be global. We are no longer talking about diffuse teleconnections (more rain in some areas), we are talking about enormous economic pressure in international markets that have been having a hard time for years. Nobody is very clear what is going to happen, but we do know that we have to prepare for it. Image | Xataka In Xataka | “It is so extreme that it is difficult to believe”: El Niño forecasts depict an event of unprecedented intensity.

projections have just put on the table the worst El Niño in 140 years

April 10, 2026 by usatoday24

It often feels like we are erasing the meaning of the word ‘historical’ by using it so much. And yet, here I am: about to say that seasonal prediction models show an “unprecedented” convergence in the same direction: an extremely strong El Niño before the end of 2026. If what the models say is confirmed, we could be facing the most powerful El Niño in at least 140 years. So yes, ‘historic’ is the appropriate word. But, first of all, let’s review what ENSO is. They are the acronym in English of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and they refer to a cyclical (although very irregular) climate phenomenon that has great effects on the global climate. Huge, in fact. If we exclude the stations, it is the most important source of annual climate variability from all over the planet. During the warm phase (that is, during El Niño), the absence of strong trade winds that cool the surface of the equatorial Pacific causes the temperature of that area of the ocean to skyrocket. It is this, through different atmospheric teleconnectionswhich disrupts all the weather systems in the world. The effects are varied and change depending on the region (“drier conditions than normal in certain parts of the world; while in others it causes more precipitation. Some countries have to deal with major droughts and others with torrential rains”, says AEMET); but when we talk about temperatures there is no doubt: El Niño is synonymous with heat. Although, of course, that is in a normal ENSO. If we talk about the strongest ENSO event in a century and a half, everything skyrockets. The most likely conclusions tell us about a wild redistribution of heat globally, a more than likely temperature record for 2027 and a string of profound alterations in rainfall and hurricane patterns. And why do we think it will be like this? Fundamentally, because the convergence of the different models is a very strong indication. Not only is it that more than half of the probabilistic scenarios of the European model they project anomalies greater than +2.5 degrees in the equatorial Pacific, is that Zeke Hausfather (adding 433 members from 11 models) reaches the same conclusions. And what exactly is the news? Obviously, the news is not that El Niño is coming. We have already talked about that: The news is the strength (aggressiveness, even) with which it now appears in our projections. Or not even that. Because no one is very clear what an event of this type means in a climate context like the current one (it would arrive after three years above the 1.5 of the Paris Agreement). And that is a problem. “Problem”? It is also the most appropriate word. We must not forget that the super El Niño of 97-98, one of the strongest ENSOs in recent years, caused numerous consequences that lasted for years: the estimates say which caused damage to global economic growth of around 5.7 trillion dollars. If this event is greater than the one in ’97, the question is whether the improvements we have made since then are enough to contain the blow or not. The answer, I’m afraid, we will have in a few months. Image | Xataka In Xataka | “It is so extreme that it is difficult to believe”: El Niño forecasts depict an event of unprecedented intensity.

The question is not whether 2027 will be the warmest year on record, the question is by how much. And the answer lies in El Niño who is approaching us.

March 17, 2026 by usatoday24

Not one, not two; but three independent forecasts They converge on the same idea: 2027 is being given the face of a record. And in recent days, events have happened very quickly: The Child is at the doors and, from what we know so far, it may be a historic event. This means that next year has a very good chance of becoming the warmest year ever recorded, surpassing 2024 and exceeding the 1.5 degrees of the Paris Agreement. But let’s start with El Niño. ENSO (English acronym for El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is a cyclical, although irregular, climate phenomenon that has large effects on the global climate. Great, in fact. If we exclude the stations, it is the most important source of annual climate variability from all over the planet. During the warm phase (which will now affect us), the lack of trade winds that cool the surface of the equatorial Pacific causes the temperature to skyrocket. And so, through different atmospheric teleconnectionsdisrupts all of Earth’s weather systems. The effects in terms of precipitation change depending on the region (“drier than normal conditions in certain parts of the world, while in others it causes more precipitation. Some countries have to deal with major droughts and others with torrential rains”, says AEMET); but no one escapes from the temperature. What is happening with him? That between the forecasts for December 2025 and those for March 2026, everything has accelerated radically. Although La Niña is officially with us, the chances that we will end up with a strong or very strong EL Niño continue to grow. Above all, since researchers discovered this massive surface heating of the equatorial Pacific caused by Kelvin waves and which has already hopelessly eroded the cold pocket of water that we associate with La Niña. This is the most interesting because, as pointed out by Severe Weather Europe and Climate Impact Companythe parallels with other superChildren They are more than patent. What does all this mean? That, barring a miracle, temperatures are going to skyrocket until they exceed the red lines that we had set for ourselves. Each and every one of the last three years have surpassed 1.4 degrees over the pre-industrial period: 2026 will continue along the same lines, but 2027 has everything “in its favor” to settle above 1.5 degrees. That, translated into natural language, means ‘problems’. Issues? ENSO is a highly variable phenomenon and, in general terms, each phase is unpredictable in terms of intensity, duration, time of year and various interactions. However, the effects are sharp. On the one hand, El Niño causes flooding in California, Central America, northern Peru, Ecuador and large areas of northern and southeastern South America; torrential rains in the eastern-central Pacific islands and central Asia. On the other, is synonymous with droughts in southern Africa, the Sahel, Southeast Asia and, apparently, the Valley of Mexico. In Spain, in addition to the temperatures, it usually coincides with a small increase in rain. Could this rapid warming be indicative of something else? But beyond all this, there is something that worries researchers: that this sudden warming is a symptom of changes between the three phases of El Niño that are faster than they have been until now. Nothing is clear, obviously, but the mere possibility makes experts from half the world nervous. Meanwhile, Image | Climate Realanyzer In Xataka | We don’t know anything about El Niño at this time of year. That’s a meteorological mystery… and good news

El Niño is coming back in a big way

March 11, 2026 by usatoday24

Since mid-2025, we had no news on the front: the equatorial Pacific has been governed for months by a tremendously weak, decaffeinated and boring La Niña. But things end. And this La Niña is, in fact, ending very quickly. As I write, Kevin waves are transporting heat into the eastern Pacific and major seasonal models are signaling with unprecedented fixation that El Niño is just around the corner. What’s more, they point out that the next episode of ENSO is going to be between strong and very strong before we know it. First of all… what is El Niño in 127 words. What we know as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (or ENSO) is a cyclical (although somewhat irregular) climate phenomenon that has large effects on the global climate. During the warm phase (during El Niño itself), the lack of trade winds to cool the surface causes the temperature of the Pacific waters to skyrocket. And that, precisely that, disrupts all the Earth’s weather systems, causing the thermometers of the entire planet to skyrocket. As explained from AEMET“El Niño, through different atmospheric teleconnections, gives rise to drier than normal conditions in certain parts of the world; while in others it causes more precipitation. Some countries have to deal with significant droughts and others with torrential rains.” What happened now? Something quite curious, really. In just one week, we have gone from the most absolute tranquility (60-70% chance of neutral conditions) to 80% of a strong or very strong El Niño before summer ends. What has changed, as I said above, are the ocean signals: NOAA have found signs of significant subsurface warming, and that warming is the classic first sign that something is starting to change. Basically, since the beginning of the year there have been three episodes in which warm water from the western Pacific has been moving eastward. Changes in the wind pattern have also been detected. And why does it concern experts? Because these rapid changes are very similar to what happened in 1997. The super El Niño of 97-98 was one of the strongest ENSOs in recent years and caused numerous problems: the estimates say that he alone caused damage to global economic growth of around 5.7 trillion dollars. Obviously, many things They can go wrong between now and summerbut we would be wrong if we do not pay attention to the Pacific. We are at the doors of a global food crisisthe last thing we need is for El Niño to hit the Southern Hemisphere hard during the last months of the year. Image | NOAA In Xataka | Long periods of drought are going to become more and more normal. It’s time to get used to them

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