storms

A trough ready to free us from the scorching heat, but charging its price on storms

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The worst of this warm episode has not yet arrived but there are those who already have their view at its end. It is not for less, as it is customary this summer, the only thing that is helping to reduce the thermometers is the arrival of storms. And again meteorologists foresee them. Change the trend. On Friday part of the peninsula will see A new transition Meteorological: The heat episode we now live will give way to storms. These stormy episodes will affect the north third and could be strong, leaving winds of intensity and hail. Dorsal and trough. Again, the alternation between scorching heat and intense storms is given by the succession of dorsal and trough, air masses in height under the influence of high and low pressures respectively. According to explains the geographer Samuel Biener in Meteoredthe change in the situation will come from the hand of an Atlantic trough driven in turn by the undulations of the stream in jet. Two seas to red live. There is another important element in the risk that these storms suppose in summer, Remember too Biener himself. It is in the seas, and more specifically in the temperature of its surface waters. Both the Western Mediterranean and the Eastern Cantabrian They are suffering their own “heat waves”. The waters of the surface in these regions have been accumulating several degrees above what would correspond to this time of year. This increases the risk of convective storms. Heat and moisture are transmitted to the air on the surface and then this air interacts with possible cold and dry air masses such as those dragged by the rush that approaches, generating important storms that discharge the humidity and energy accumulated in the environment. Uncertainty, for now. There is still uncertainty about the evolution of this new episode of storms but The forecasts From the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet), on Friday both cloudy skies are expected and “locally with a storm” rainfall. These will circulate from the west and will end up affecting most of the north third, being especially intense in the Eastern Cantabrian and Western Pyrenees. The situation is expected to refer towards the afternoon of Saturday, although the forecasts indicate the possibility that during the day there will be “strong and accompanied by storm” rainfall between the Eastern Cantabrian and the Northeast of Catalonia. For now the agency has not issued any warning related to these storms, but it is still early to rule out a worsening of the situation. In Xataka | The heat of the last weeks has been so extreme that we have already exceeded tropical nights: the equatorial nights are here Image | ECMWF

What are solar storms and why society has become so vulnerable to something that has happened millions of years

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“Understanding the space climate is not an option.” With this lapidary phrase summarizes its efforts to predict solar storms the European Space Agency. They occur since the sun exists, and some of the most powerful They are recorded in the trees rings. But they are not our ancestors, but we, the most dependent civilization of the technology that the earth has ever stepped on, the most vulnerable to them. But what exactly are solar storms? How are these energy outbreaks? And the million dollar question: can we predict when the next one will impact on earth? The answer is in a complex network of satellites, artificial intelligence models and constant surveillance of our star by space agencies. What is a solar storm 150 million kilometers away, the sun flushes with a magnetic activity so powerful that, from time to time, it goes out of hand. A solar storm is a sudden explosion of energy, plasma particles and magnetic fields that the sun releases towards the solar system. If the ejection occurs in the direction of the Earth, the solar storms can produce more intense auroraslike those that were seen in much of the world in May 2024. But they are not only a show: in our technological civilization, they are also a threat. To understand them, we have to differentiate their two main components. The guts or solar flares. They are a intense radiation outbreak: A whip of energy released when the magnetic fields of the sun tense and break. This radiation travels at the speed of light, reaching the earth in just eight minutes. They are classified according to their intensity by X -ray flow, measured in watts per square meter. The class A, B and C are the weakest, and those of class M and X, the most powerful, which usually cause interference in short wave radio communications. Coronal mass ejections. It is the ballistic part of the solar storms. While fulguration is the flash, the coronal mass ejections They are the “cannon bullet”: a gigantic bubble of loaded particles (plasma) and magnetic fields that are thrown into the space at speeds of millions of kilometers per hour. This massive cloud of solar material It takes between 18 hours and a couple of days in crossing the space to cross with our planet. Not all guts are accompanied by a coronal mass ejection, but when they occur together and in the direction of the earth, they are a powerful cocktail that can put astronauts at risk, knock down satellites (as happened during a Starlink deploymentor fry electrical installations on land (As in the Carrington event). How they form A Class M. Image: That The origin of the solar storms is the magnetic field of the Sun. A star is not a solid ball, but a sphere of rotation plasma. But it does not rotate uniformly: his Ecuador turns faster than his poles. This differential causes the magnetic field lines to twist, tangle and accumulate an enormous amount of energy, as if they were elastic gums twisted to the limit. These areas of intense and complex magnetic activity They usually manifest as sun spots on the visible surface of the sun. When the accumulated tension becomes unsustainable, there is a magnetic reconnection event: the lines are broken and violently reorganized, suddenly releasing all the stored energy. This release drives the guts and can launch into the mass of the solar crown. The intensity of its effects on Earth depends on its speed, its size and, above all, the orientation of its magnetic field. If the magnetic field of coronal mass ejection is oriented towards the south, it is aligned in opposition to that of the Earth, our protective shield, which allows a much more efficient and destructive energy transfer. How they affect the earth If we are here it is because the magnetic field and the atmosphere of the earth protect us from radiation. Solar storms are not a direct risk to the health of living beings on the earth’s surface. For astronauts it is another song. In 1972, shortly before the Apollo 17 mission, there was an intense solar storm that would have inoculated a mortal amount of radiation in astronauts if they had been on the surface of the moon. Today, astronauts who work in the low land orbit, even protected by the magnetic field, plan space walks according to the space climate. The really vulnerable to intense solar storms is our technological infrastructure. When a coronal mass ejection impacts the earth’s magnetosphere There is a geomagnetic storm. Extreme cases can induce electric currents in high voltage lines, overloading transformers and raising the risk of blackouts, especially now in summer, when the electricity grid is already very tension. The satellites, despite having mechanisms to avoid induced currents, usually carry the worst part. Solar storms expand the upper atmosphere of the Earth, increasing friction and accelerating the fall of satellites that orbit the earth at low height. This effect already is accelerating the fall of Starlink satellitesthe most large constellation of the low orbit. Even during moderate geomagnetic storms we can notice some effects, such as precision errors in GPS systems or that airlines deflect flights from polar routes to avoid failures in plane systems and protect passengers. The kind face of solar storms are the auroras: solar particles that when hitting our atmosphere They create a light show at the poles. During severe geomagnetic storms, dawn can also be seen in less common latitudes. When the next solar storm will occur Image: that The most severe geomagnetic storms occur Around solarthe period of more activity of the Sun in its 11 -year cycle. Now we are going through solar cycle 25, and we approach the maximum activity, planned by the NOAA and ESA by the end of 2025 or early 2026. This means that we are in a high probability phase of intense storms. Luckily, spatial meteorology is advancing by giant steps. To predict solar storms, … Read more

Aemet indicates that we will touch the 43rd to orange notices for storms

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In Sunday afternoon, locations such as Morón de la Frontera (Sevilla) or Montoro (Córdoba) saw their thermometers to place On the edge of the 43rd Celsius. Although high temperatures are not going to disappear so quickly, the phenomenon that experts are now worried is A week of change. Meteorologists foresee A new change Meteorological this week, one that will not only bring us a drop in temperatures: the models warn of the arrival of storms that could be intense. As if that were not enough, hail could also make an appearance. What is happening? Since the end of last month, the meteorological sway was marked by the succession of several dorsal and a trough. The former brought us atmospheric stability and high temperatures, the last one brought us rainfall and a brief relief of heat. However, the fresco is not going to bring a new trough, Experts warn: It will be an isolated depression at high levels, a Dana. Although it is expected that as of today the storms begin to demonstrate in the north, the effects of this Dana will be especially notorious in Galicia from the day of Tuesday. From heat to storms. According to The forecasts From the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet), the storms will have the probability of being strong and arriving accompanied by both hail and “very strong” gusts in some areas of the plateau, Eastern Betic System and in the Iberian South. The agency has activated various notices For storms in these areas, oranges in the case of the province of Teruel for “very strong hail probability and very strong wind gusts.” On Wednesday, “strong” storms are also expected in the northern half, with probable showers in western Galicia, Cantabrian environment, Alto Ebro, the Iberian and the Pyrenees. Aemet storm notices will be activated in most of the Peninsular Northern area, with orange notices in areas of the Basque Country and Catalonia. Not far from 40º. Despite the decrease in temperatures, storms will coexist with heat. So much so that weather notices for rains and storms will coexist these days with notices due to extreme temperatures above 37º. Aemet has also activated An orange alert on Tuesday on the Ebro banks in Zaragoza due to maximum temperatures of up to 39º. In Xataka | The time of truth of the Spanish reservoirs: how are they going to endure the heat after rains that has left them overflowing Image | ECMWF

Heat ends, but storms arrive

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The heat is being the undisputed protagonist of this week at the weather. However The warm episode He has his days (or his hours) counted in much of the Peninsula: as of today the extreme heat will live with rains and storms: some communities will have to alert for very different phenomena. Variopintos phenomena. Meteorologists foresee that the warm episode that affects the peninsula will fade in the next few days and that at the beginning of next week the instability will be the dominant tonic. The transition will not be simple: during the next few days some areas will see the arrival of rainfall and storms while others Taguada vs. dorsal. Let’s put some context to understand what is happening at the atmospheric level. A few days ago we saw an arrival of an Atlantic anticyclone and an associated dorsal. The dorsal are areas of high pressures that extend from a high pressures center lengthening the scope of anticyclonic time. The stability associated with high pressures, along with other factorscontributed to a high insolation that warmed the air of the peninsula until it brought us to the current situation. However meteorologists They announce now that a trough display in the next few days the dorsal. That is, from a situation we move on to the opposite, with a region of low pressures associated with a storm changing the meteorological panorama. A heat pause. And how this translates: then that instability will take possession of peninsular meteorology. Some areas will begin to see storms today, but it will be from Sunday, with the arrival of the dorsal, which these are generalized. Heat warnings and storm warnings. The peculiar transition between two weeks marked by opposite phenomena will leave A singular notice map of the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet), a map in which yellow and orange warnings coexist due to maximum and storm temperatures (and also yellow notices for rains). In this sense, today it will be the most unique: 14 autonomous communities (all peninsular except Murcia) will see active notices throughout the day. Of these highlight orange notices due to temperatures of up to 40º Celsius in the Sevillian countryside; and orange warnings for storms inside the Cantabrian cornice, from the Asturian southwestern to the inner Bizkaia. In unknown terrain. Spring is a transit station where changes in the atmospheric situation are not entirely strange. However, we can talk about an anomalous season in terms of meteorology: from a drought we spend some of the months with more rainfall than we have record. Now we return to one more panorama in the tonic of recent years: with a summer that is advanced leaving us extreme heat during the last week of May. To know what will happen during the real summer we will still have to wait a few weeks. In Xataka | The reservoirs are almost 22% above the average of the last decade. There is an “but” important before celebrating Image | ECMWF

The persistence of the blockade in the middle of May brings us storms and a lot of uncertainty

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In recent days, a Dana has been affecting a good part of the peninsular territory. And, even if it seems, the news is not that it will continue with us “favoring the development of intense and organized storms.” Will do it (As of Tuesday, “Depression will tend again to descend on latitude in an erratic and retrograde movement, approaching our geography”); But that begins to be the least. The most thing is that, for the umpteenth time, A persistent blocking pattern It continues to hinder the zonal circulation. A puzzle called “Spring of 2025”. As Sergio Escama explains in detailcurrent instability is due to three weather pieces: The anticyclone of the Azores that, despite being placed in its usual place, continues to have a strange elongation to the north (a kind of slide) that allows the arrival of Atlantic storms to the Peninsula. A dorsal that from Central Europe attracts the entire continent and arrives at the British Isles A continuous transfer of low pressures that passes between the two anticyclones and reaches our latitudes. Time-out! However, the next two days will be more stable and temperatures will tend to rise. Of course, the minimums will continue lower than normal and should not surprise us if we find frost in mid -May. But in a matter of days, the situation will become complicated again. Because, as I said, the Dana that now seems to get away will start going down back to us And, predictably, it will form a system with another that ascends from southern Africa. That is, between the Tuesday and Thursday a significant increase in stormy activity is expected. In fact, due to uncertainties associated with this type of phenomena, agencies are preparing: storms can be strong and t could affect any point in the country. Of course, the center, the north and some parts of the west of the peninsular territory They will take the worst part. What can we expect? In addition to low temperatures, What we are going to see They are storms (some very intense) that will cause rays, storms and hail. But that is in the short term, in the long term no one is very clear about what will happen. We are in a year in which many areas have seen rains as they did not see since the beginning of the records. March, as we know, has been One of the rainiest since 1961. The interesting thing is that May will also be above the average and nobody knows how all this will affect summer. So we enjoy it and cross our fingers so that this is not an anecdote, but a change of trend. Image | Tropical tidbits In Xataka | Spain has received more rain than ever this spring. And yet it is unable to get rid of the ghost of the drought

The good news is that the storms will finally give us truce this week. The bad is that time will remain unstable

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The last weeks have been marked by instability: rains (we have seen One of the most wet that remember the records), cold and storms several have been protagonists in this spring. Now, after the holiday period, experts foresee a change in the atmospheric trend. Changes, in theory. This week will be A week of changes at the atmospheric level with respect to the dominant trend during Holy Week. Of course, at ground level these changes will be noticed rather: instability and rains will continue to accompany the day -to -day life of many Spaniards, although in some areas the increase in temperatures can take the thermometers towards the 30º towards the end of the week. No storms in sight. Meteorological forecasts for the next few days foresee a change in the atmospheric pattern: the storms disappear for the peninsular geography, opening the way to the major influence of anticyclones such as the Azores. According to the forecast of the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet), this will be reflected in an increase in maximum temperatures in the southeast peninsular interior, as well as in mountainous areas of the north. However, this is only part of the story. A tape tall It will become the protagonist In these first days of the week, accompanied by a front that will bring new rains to a good part of the Peninsula. In practice. The Aemet forecastwhich throughout the day will extend to much of the northwest peninsular half, being able to reach areas of the southeast. The forecast also speaks of possible snowfall in mountains of the north end. On Tuesday, instability will increase, with “showers and storms that can be locally strong in areas of the northeast peninsular near the Mediterranean.” If Monday temperatures are experiencing a slight rise, the situation will be reversed tomorrow in some areas, with a notable decrease in the maxims in the Ebro, the east of the Northern Plateau and the Eastern Cantabrian, according to the agency’s forecasts. A more palpable change. As of Wednesday, the change in the atmospheric state could materialize in a change over time. The models foresee that this day the influence of the Azores anticyclone will stabilize the meteorology of the peninsula. The heavens, yes, will remain overcast in the north, with rainfall “weak although persistent”In the area. The showers are not ruled out in the rest of the peninsular territory either. Round of the rains? The situation is expected on Thursday but Friday could see the arrival of A new trough and, with it, the return of rainfall of greater consideration. If the forecasts are fulfilled, this phenomenon will move west throughout Friday and Saturday, leaving rains and even storms. In Xataka | While Spain was pending the rains, something strange was happening with the polar vortex Image | ECMWF

In the middle of a huge “train of storms”, AEMET has just pronounced the most anticipated word of winter: snow

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The rain no respite and he’s not going to give it. Neither the rain, nor the winds, nor the snow. While the storm Herminia full of red notices the entire northwest part of the peninsula, the forecasts have us all looking at an Atlantic full of surprises. Among them, snow. What Herminia is doing. In recent days, the entire country has been revolving around Herminia. In some regions (such as Galicia) the intensity of the winds forced to divert flights and cancel trains. The worst, however, had not yet passed: this Monday will be the strongest day of the storm. 16 autonomous communities They have notices from the AEMET. Until Tuesday, Herminia will unfold a temporary more than considerable with wind, waves, rain and snow. But, as we said, Herminia is nothing more than the appetizer. According to predictive models, two new storms are going to cross the peninsula. The first will make its debut on the same Wednesday. In fact, on Tuesday a very cold air mass of polar origin will begin to enter the country. We talk about “temperatures at about 5500 meters altitude (500 hPa)”, explained Sergio Escama in Meteored. But the interesting thing is that we will notice it down here. What will we notice? The winter. Winter in its meteorologically pure state. From Wednesday the general drop in temperatures will be evident and snow will affect to the Cantabrian Mountains, the Pyrenees, the Central System, the Iberian System and other inland areas. The snow level is not clear yet, but is expected to be low. And that will be only the first of the post-Herminia storms. Because, according to AEMET modelsafter a very entertaining Wednesday-Thursday with the snow (and its problems); A busy weekend will follow. That is, the “storm train” extends as far as we can reliably see. This precision is important because, although right now there is a possibility that this second storm will be more intense than the previous ones, the time frame prevents us from being able to estimate its virulence accurately. What can we do? Luckily, The recommendations for now are the same: avoid unnecessary trips; prepare for the cold, wind and snow; and pay attention to weather and civil protection updates. We already know that this is one of the great paradoxes of snow: it is something as wonderful and fascinating as it is full of problems. Image | AEMET In Xataka | The best tips for a snow or hail storm

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