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“Understanding the space climate is not an option.” With this lapidary phrase summarizes its efforts to predict solar storms the European Space Agency. They occur since the sun exists, and some of the most powerful They are recorded in the trees rings. But they are not our ancestors, but we, the most dependent civilization of the technology that the earth has ever stepped on, the most vulnerable to them.
But what exactly are solar storms? How are these energy outbreaks? And the million dollar question: can we predict when the next one will impact on earth? The answer is in a complex network of satellites, artificial intelligence models and constant surveillance of our star by space agencies.
What is a solar storm
150 million kilometers away, the sun flushes with a magnetic activity so powerful that, from time to time, it goes out of hand. A solar storm is a sudden explosion of energy, plasma particles and magnetic fields that the sun releases towards the solar system.
If the ejection occurs in the direction of the Earth, the solar storms can produce more intense auroraslike those that were seen in much of the world in May 2024. But they are not only a show: in our technological civilization, they are also a threat. To understand them, we have to differentiate their two main components.
The guts or solar flares. They are a intense radiation outbreak: A whip of energy released when the magnetic fields of the sun tense and break. This radiation travels at the speed of light, reaching the earth in just eight minutes.
They are classified according to their intensity by X -ray flow, measured in watts per square meter. The class A, B and C are the weakest, and those of class M and X, the most powerful, which usually cause interference in short wave radio communications.
Coronal mass ejections. It is the ballistic part of the solar storms. While fulguration is the flash, the coronal mass ejections They are the “cannon bullet”: a gigantic bubble of loaded particles (plasma) and magnetic fields that are thrown into the space at speeds of millions of kilometers per hour.
This massive cloud of solar material It takes between 18 hours and a couple of days in crossing the space to cross with our planet. Not all guts are accompanied by a coronal mass ejection, but when they occur together and in the direction of the earth, they are a powerful cocktail that can put astronauts at risk, knock down satellites (as happened during a Starlink deploymentor fry electrical installations on land (As in the Carrington event).
How they form
A Class M. Image: That
The origin of the solar storms is the magnetic field of the Sun. A star is not a solid ball, but a sphere of rotation plasma. But it does not rotate uniformly: his Ecuador turns faster than his poles. This differential causes the magnetic field lines to twist, tangle and accumulate an enormous amount of energy, as if they were elastic gums twisted to the limit.
These areas of intense and complex magnetic activity They usually manifest as sun spots on the visible surface of the sun. When the accumulated tension becomes unsustainable, there is a magnetic reconnection event: the lines are broken and violently reorganized, suddenly releasing all the stored energy. This release drives the guts and can launch into the mass of the solar crown.
The intensity of its effects on Earth depends on its speed, its size and, above all, the orientation of its magnetic field. If the magnetic field of coronal mass ejection is oriented towards the south, it is aligned in opposition to that of the Earth, our protective shield, which allows a much more efficient and destructive energy transfer.
How they affect the earth
If we are here it is because the magnetic field and the atmosphere of the earth protect us from radiation. Solar storms are not a direct risk to the health of living beings on the earth’s surface. For astronauts it is another song.
In 1972, shortly before the Apollo 17 mission, there was an intense solar storm that would have inoculated a mortal amount of radiation in astronauts if they had been on the surface of the moon. Today, astronauts who work in the low land orbit, even protected by the magnetic field, plan space walks according to the space climate.
The really vulnerable to intense solar storms is our technological infrastructure. When a coronal mass ejection impacts the earth’s magnetosphere There is a geomagnetic storm. Extreme cases can induce electric currents in high voltage lines, overloading transformers and raising the risk of blackouts, especially now in summer, when the electricity grid is already very tension.
The satellites, despite having mechanisms to avoid induced currents, usually carry the worst part. Solar storms expand the upper atmosphere of the Earth, increasing friction and accelerating the fall of satellites that orbit the earth at low height. This effect already is accelerating the fall of Starlink satellitesthe most large constellation of the low orbit.
Even during moderate geomagnetic storms we can notice some effects, such as precision errors in GPS systems or that airlines deflect flights from polar routes to avoid failures in plane systems and protect passengers.
The kind face of solar storms are the auroras: solar particles that when hitting our atmosphere They create a light show at the poles. During severe geomagnetic storms, dawn can also be seen in less common latitudes.
When the next solar storm will occur
Image: that
The most severe geomagnetic storms occur Around solarthe period of more activity of the Sun in its 11 -year cycle. Now we are going through solar cycle 25, and we approach the maximum activity, planned by the NOAA and ESA by the end of 2025 or early 2026. This means that we are in a high probability phase of intense storms. Luckily, spatial meteorology is advancing by giant steps.
To predict solar storms, scientists use a fleet of observatories deployed in space, such as Soho de la Este either NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory. We also have in situ the Solar orbiter of that and NASA’s parker probe, The first ship having “touched” the outer atmosphere of the sun. These satellites act as sentries responsible for making an early detection of eruptions. Then the predictive models come into play.
Space meteorologists use automatic learning tools such as NASA Geocme either Aspecs de la Este to analyze images of coronal mass ejections and predict the possibilities of causing a geomagnetic storm on Earth before it reaches us. For now, the observations focus on the solar spots oriented towards the Earth. In 2031, the ESA vigil mission will be located in a lateral position to see the active regions before they rotate towards our planet, offering an earlier forecast.
How to prepare for the Maximum Solar
Although we cannot stop a solar eruption, we can prevent and mitigate its effects. Electrical companies, space agencies and airlines already usually take mitigation measures following the official alerts of portals such as the That Space Weather Portal or the Noaa Space Weather Prediction Center.
On a personal level, the most sensible preparation for the approaching maximum is similar to that of any emergency that can cause a service cut. An emergency kit with flashlights, batteries, a kit, an external battery, bottled water and non -perishable foods, in case an extreme geomagnetic storm caused a difficult blackout to restore.
And at home, you can consider acquiring a SAI or a strip with surge protection to protect your equipment or directly disconnect them from the current during the most intense solar storms. With the growing demand for electricity, the transformers crisis was only missing A stronger solar than expected To finish tensioning the network.
Image | POT
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