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During the so-called “Tanker War” between Iran and Iraq, several maritime companies arrived to paint flags of other countries on their ships and to change names and registrations almost overnight to try to cross the Persian Gulf without being attacked. Even so, many crews they kept sailing convinced that any mistake, radar or strange movement could turn a routine commercial trip into an improvised combat zone. The most uncertain war. The situation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has become a paradox that is difficult to sustain. A few hours ago, the White House insisted on stating that the war ended weeks ago. In fact, Marco Rubio assures that the “Epic Fury” operation has already concluded while Trump now speaks of the conflict as a luck of “miniwar” or a temporary episode where the small and last quarrels are ending… It happens that at the same time they continue flying drones and missilesUS ships continue to intercept Iranian attacks and forces from both countries they continue to cross fire throughout the Gulf. In other words, Washington is trying to sell the idea that the conflict is already in the diplomatic phase while almost daily military actions continue to occur on the ground, especially in the United Arab Emirates, where incidents of bombings They are almost daily. How to block Hormuz without closing it completely. Iran’s great trick has not been to destroy American fleets, but to turn the strait into a place too dangerous for normal trade. Although practically every day some ships They cross the area escorted In the US, traffic remains well below pre-war levels because shipping companies and insurers continue to see the move as a risky bet. Iran thus maintains enormous pressure on the global economy without the need to impose an absolute blockade, using limited attacks, constant threats and the permanent feeling that any transit can end in an incident military. The failure of the US plan. Trump presented “Project Freedom” as the operation that would demonstrate that Washington Hormuz could reopen by force and restore freedom of navigation. However, the plan barely managed to move a few ships before to be paused less than two days after starting. The president’s decision American reflects Washington’s big problem: protecting the strait requires taking constant military risks, but abandoning the operation leaves Iran with the capacity to continue conditioning global energy trade. USA has been trapped between avoiding another major war in the Middle East and not seeming incapable of imposing its own strategy. The truce works like a limited and controlled war. The truth is that on paper there is a ceasefire, but in practice both countries continue to act as if the conflict will remain open. The Pentagon describes the Iranian attacks as “harassment” below the threshold of a new all-out war, allowing Trump to avoid a major escalation. Meanwhile, Iran continues launching limited attacks and testing how far he can escalate the situation without provoking a massive American response. The result is a kind of hybrid war where officially there is no war… but neither is there peace. Arab allies begin to distrust the US. The Iranian attacks on the United Arab Emirates have caused a growing concern among the Gulf monarchies. Many governments in the region perceive that Trump is more focused on getting out of the conflict than on responding harshly to Tehran, even after of new releases of missiles and drones. The feeling is that hosting US bases can make those countries in priority objectivess without necessarily guaranteeing total protection. That doubt is also beginning to spread among European and Asian allies who observe how Washington continually redefines what it considers a real war. China has become the key diplomatic player. Amid the partial blockade of Hormuz, Beijing tries keep balance between its relationship with Iran and the need to stabilize energy markets. United States is putting pressure on China to convince Tehran to fully reopen the strait, especially before the next meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping. The problem is that China continues buying iranian oil and rejects part of the US sanctions, although at the same time the rise in energy prices is seriously damaging its economy. That makes Beijing an indispensable actor for any negotiated solution. Iran believes time is on its side. The Iranian leadership seems convinced that the United States wants to avoid another long war in the Middle East at all costs, and possibly that is why it is using that perception to increase little by little the pressure. Tehran keeps attacks limited, keeps Hormuz partially closed and continues to show it can still disrupt world markets without crossing a red line definitive. The result is a most unprecedented situation, one where Washington tries to declare victory and turn the page, while Iran continues using military threat as a daily trading tool. Image | USN, Mostafa Tehrani In Xataka | Neom has stopped being science fiction thanks to the war in Iran: from a futuristic city to the great logistical shortcut that bypasses Hormuz In Xataka | The strangest plan of the war is ready: guide the 1,000 ships trapped in Hormuz hoping that no one will shoot