There was a time when the Lottery Jackpot “took you away from work.” Today it barely takes away a part of the mortgage

Someone who already has gray hair still remembers that, thirty years ago, May you get the Christmas Fat Man It was practically the key to financial freedom. With the full prize of one tenth (about 30 million pesetas in the 90s) you could buy several houses, pay mortgages and even ensure the well-being of your family with that stroke of luck. Today, with a prize of 400,000 euros (328,000 euros after taxes), that story sounds very different. One of the main conditions is that, in the mid-nineties, the real estate market in Spain I played in another league. Buy an apartment…or several In cities like Madrid, a home of about 90 square meters could be found for less than 14 or 15 million pesetas, according to official statistics. That meant that Fatty Christmas allowed to buy two apartments medium-sized in a big city, or buy one, pay off the mortgage and a good pinch to maintain a good margin of liquidity. In those years, the award was not just help: it was a complete break from financial worries. As was often heard at the doors of lottery administrations while the winners uncorked bottles of champagne, it was a prize that “kept you off work.” Thirty years later, the prize is still striking in terms of numbers, but its real purchasing power has changed. El Gordo has been frozen at 400,000 euros per tenth for more than a decade, while the price of housing has followed an almost constant upward trajectory. In Madrid, the average house price It ranges between 5,500 and 5,758 euros per square meter, which implies that with the 328,000 euros net of the prize, you can barely purchase 60 or 70 square meters at an average price. In practice, this means that Gordo no longer even guarantees a standard floor in many neighborhoods of the capital. Barcelona offers a similar image. With average prices located at 3,084 euros per square meter, the Gordo de Navidad allows buy a modest home or a medium-sized apartment in peripheral areas, but it is far from the purchasing capacity it had in the nineties. The comparison leaves no room for doubt: where before the prize opened the door to buying an apartment in the city and a house on the beachtoday it is barely enough for one, and not necessarily in the best conditions. The contrast is softened slightly if the market is viewed from more affordable cities. In capitals like Zamora or Lugo, where average prices are between 980 and 1,300 euros per square meter, El Gordo continues to allow you to buy spacious homes or even more than a small property. However, even in these more affordable markets, the premium no longer equivalent to that massive asset leap that it represented three decades ago. The difference is not so much in the amount of the prize as in the uneven evolution of prices. This purchasing capacity is also explained by the general price context. He housing cost It was much more aligned with the average income of the population and access to property was not subject to the housing and demand pressure that characterizes the current market. El Gordo, in that scenario, functioned as a real wealth multiplier. A Gordo with more salary, but less power make a salary comparison helps to better understand this change of scale. In the 90s, the average annual salary in Spain was around 2 million pesetas (about 12,000 euros). In that context, the Gordo of 30 million pesetas was equivalent to approximately 15 times the annual salary of a worker medium, which reinforced its perception as an immediate economic transformation: decades of income concentrated in a single stroke of chance. Today, according to the latest data from the National Statistics Institute, the median salary annually in Spain is around 23,300 euros. With this reference, the current Gordo’s 328,000 euros is equivalent to just over 14 times the median annual salary. The proportion, curiously, is not that different from that of the nineties. The big difference appears when that salary multiple faces the price of housing (and all goods in general), which has grown much faster than income. That’s the key to change. Although the premium maintains a similar relationship with salaries, your ability to buy a home has deteriorated drastically. The real estate market has become decoupled from wage growth, and El Gordo, by remaining fixed, has been trapped in the middle of that gap. What was previously enough to buy two apartments today barely covers one, and in many cases forces them to continue getting into debt, although to a lesser extent. The social meaning of Gordo has changed. In the nineties it was synonymous with total economic independence. In 2025, it is still an extraordinary stroke of luck, but its role has shifted, no longer guaranteeing financial freedom, but financial relief. In Xataka | There is something even more difficult than winning the Lottery Jackpot: not making mistakes with the Treasury when collecting it Image | Flickr (srgpicker)

Mathematicians have a simple way to increase the odds of winning the jackpot. Another thing is that it compensates

By more than try Abel Caballero, the beginning of Christmas (at least in Spain) is not marked by the lighting of the lights of Vigo, but by a much more consolidated tradition: the raffle of the Christmas Lottery. Every December 22, thousands of Spaniards tune in to TV, radio or press the ‘F5’ key on their computers every so often in the hope that the children of San Idelfonso sing your number. However, the probability of this happening is very low, as much as choosing a name at random from the census of a city and getting it right. The question is… Are there ways to expand that probability? 1 in 100,000. The Christmas Lottery generates excitement and makes thousands of Spaniards get out of bed on December 22 with a special tingle: the hope of seeing how their bank accounts suddenly add a handful more zeros. That is undeniable. Just as it is that, if we leave aside the illusion, the chances of our tenth(s) winning are very small. Lower case. The data speaks for itself and leaves little room for hope: in the hype 100,000 balls enter with numbers from 00000 to 99,999. Your number has the same exit options as the other 99,999, one 0.001% probability. Mathematics VS hope. “In these cases the probability is easy to calculate. Since all numbers are equally probable (there is a ball for each number), it would be calculated with Laplace’s rule: the number of favorable cases divided by the number of possible cases,” comments Miguel Ángel Morales, mathematician and author of the blog Gaussians for almost two decades. “Assuming that we have only one tenth, the probability of winning El Gordo would be 1 (there is only one Gordo) in 100,000 (since there are 100,000 numbers that enter the draw). That is, a probability of 0.00001.” What does that mean? Since talking about drums, tenths and statistics can be too abstract, Morales transfers the figures to something we are much more accustomed to: people. In this case we would exchange the tenths for cards and the drums for the municipal registry of a medium-sized city. “Let’s imagine that we have a DNI of someone from Santiago de Compostela and a list with the names of all its inhabitants (about 1,000,000),” reflects the professor. “The probability would be similar to the one we have of choosing one of those names at random and turning out to be the person with the DNI that we had at the beginning.” “If we talk about the total number of prizes, the way to calculate the probability would be the same: we would have to change the 1 (a single Gordo) for the number of prizes. Sticking to the main prizes, as there is a First, a Second, a Third, two Fourths and eight Fifths, the probability of getting a main prize with a single tenth would be 13 divided by 100000, 0.00013.” The big question. There is no Christmas without its Lottery and there is no draw in which it is not considered the same question: Do we have any way to increase our chances of success, however slim they may be? Is there any way to scratch a little more probability, even a few tenths? The answer is yes. And not. The starting data is what it is, but precisely for this reason our chances of being happy on the morning of December 22 increase as the number of different tenths that we have in our portfolio increases. More options? More tenths? “The only way to increase the probabilities is, effectively, to buy more tenths of different numbers,” confirms Morales. “If we have five of different numbers, the probability of winning the jackpot would be 5 in 100,000, which is 0.00005. There are no more mathematical ways to increase the probability of winning a prize.” That is, if what you want is to “maximize” your chances of success, you will have no choice but to put more eggs in the basket. Having more bills of the same number (even if you have a hunch) will only help you win more money in case that combination wins, it does not increase your options. “Speaking of refund, the probability would be one in ten if we have a single tenth. Obviously, buying more tenths with different endings would help us have a greater probability of getting that refund,” he adds. And Doña Manolita or the ‘tricks’? The Christmas Lottery is not only peculiar because of the Gordo, the stones and its symbolic value. It is also because in it statistics and pure hunch go hand in hand (just like in other games of chance). Hence there are people willing to endure long lines outside to buy a tenth at Doña Manolita or to always play the same number, perhaps a special number that coincides with your birthday or the date your child was born. Works? Do these ‘tricks’ improve our chances? Morales is very clear about whether the latter (repeating a number year after year) influences our fortunes: “No, it does not increase it. All draws are independent, which means that what comes out in a draw does not depend on what happened in the previous ones. They have no memory. Mathematically speaking, always playing the same number does not increase the probability of winning.” The administrations of “luck”. There is also no difference between buying a tenth at the corner fruit shop or doing it in administrations so famous like Doña Manolita, The Bruixa d’OrLotería Valdés or El Gato Negro. Manuel García, an expert in Statistics at the European University, was also very clear about this a few days ago in an interview with the diary ACE. “They give out more prizes because they sell more numbers, not because they are luckier. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy effect. It’s very important because since it has that reputation (I don’t know how it originates) people usually go there to buy. They are the ones that … Read more

ChatGPT has the same chance of hitting the Lottery Jackpot as a witch reading the guts of a crow

There are those who always play the same number. Others travel half of Spain looking for the combination they have dreamed of or simply a special date. This dance of fetishes related to the Extraordinary Christmas Lottery Draw is now added a new name: ChatGPT. And the question is not only whether artificial intelligence is capable of guessing the winning number, something that is obviously not possible. It goes much further than that: there is a lot of superstition in this, but also of believing at face value what the AI ​​tells us. Even when we know that there is nothing behind it to support its results. ChatGPT and the lottery. Christmas is coming and with it interest in the Lottery increases. And with it, an unexpected protagonist also emerges again: ChatGPT. The OpenAI ‘chatbot’ has become another Christmas classic thanks to the fact that, one more yearwe Spaniards ask you again what the winning number will be. The objective is clear: that ChatGPT deciphers the tenth that the Fat Man will win in the 2025 Christmas Lottery. Although only chance rules here. It doesn’t get wet. The Christmas Draw is carried out using a system of two drums, with a manual mechanism, in which all the balls are identical, both in weight and size, so that they have exactly the same chance of winning. The prize is drawn from the first pot and the number to which it is associated is drawn from the second pot. The procedure for drawing the balls is completely random and, therefore, so is the winning number. The chance of getting it right is 0.001%. If you have ever tried to ask ChatGPT what the Gordo will be on December 22, its answer is what it should be: If you insist, he also repeats the same thing: “I cannot tell you with certainty what the winning number of the Spanish Christmas Lottery will be. And in fact no one can. The draw is designed to be totally random; each number from 00000 to 99999 has the same probability of being awarded.” He is not trying to sell us the bike and makes it very clear why: “although there are those who try to use theories, superstitions or even artificial intelligence to predict numbers, these methods have no real foundation: in the end, each number still has exactly 1 in 100,000 probabilities.” Finish singing. But, if we try to scratch a little more, it ends up showing a random number. If you give it a ‘prompt’ asking for a number based on a mathematical sample or taking into account the history of winning combinations, ChatGPT tells us that “I can give you a simulated number as a result of a fictitious statistical sample, but you must be clear that it does not increase your probabilities nor does it represent a real prediction.” And then, what was expected, his bet. In this case, 32,704. Of course, by trying to ask the same question in several different conversations, each time it offers a different answer. The ending doesn’t even have to match. It’s a totally random answer again. The new search engines. Chatbots like ChatGPT or Gemini they are displacing search engines traditional when it comes to search for specific information on a topic or even a much longer explanation. Even Google itself he is taking it to the kitchen to change the way we interact with the internet. If before we asked Google what could be causing a headache or what could happen to us if we took an expired medication, now the quickest, simplest and most accessible way is to have a conversation with the AI ​​as a “know-it-all” to have the solution to all our questions and concerns. Even with those that have no answer, like Gordo’s winning number. A digital superstition. The infinite possibilities of AI are leading us to use it in quite peculiar ways. From have a romantic relationship with her until resorting to it to replace psychological therapy or even interact less with other humans. In the case of the lottery, just as there are gestures associated with good luck, such as passing the tenth over the belly of a pregnant woman or the figurine of a Virgin, asking ChatGPT to choose a number for us is a new digital superstition. Another space to which we have also opened the door to artificial intelligence, “just in case” is right. Cover image | Generated with Gemini In Xataka | We have become filled with digital superstitions. They are a horror for our productivity In Xataka | ChatGPT and the Christmas Lottery: what you can do with artificial intelligence and how to ask it for a prediction

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