In 1871 a farmer abandoned five cows to their fate on a remote island. Against all odds, they colonized the island

A Frenchman goes and releases five cows on a small island where Christ lost his lighter. It sounds like a joke, but it’s true: it happened in 1871, the Frenchman was a farmer on the island of Réunion and the destination island is called Amsterdam, it is only 55 square kilometers and is in the southern Indian Ocean. What happened next will surprise you because, well, it also left the scientific community in awe, as demonstrated by the quintet’s different studies. Introducing an exotic species into new habitats is a box of surprises that usually ends up regular: ask the crabs that were native when the American crab arrived, the fish that were in the Ebro before the catfish or the mythical Pitiusas lizard, which has found in the invasive snakes that you may encounter swimming a new and ferocious predator in the waters of the Balearic Islands. But hey, there are only five cows and the island is very small, right? Well yes: biology maintains that for a foreign population to establish itself successfully it is necessary that there be a sufficient number of initial individuals to guarantee genetic diversity and avoid extinction due to inbreeding. But there are also exceptions: genetic invasion paradoxwhere tiny populations manage to prosper in a surprising way. This is the case of our beef quintet. Once upon a time there were five cows abandoned to their fate.. In reality, the farmer came to the island with other people with the idea of ​​staying, but in the end it didn’t work out and five cows is not the lightest carry-on luggage in the world, so they stayed there. The subantarctic conditions were harsh and genetically there was a bottleneck, but the animals not only survived but reproduced successfully and happily. In fact, the population grew exponentially over the decades, reaching historical peaks of up to 2,000 individuals: yes, Amsterdam Island became the island of cows and is also one of the few cases recorded worldwide of completely feral cows. Why is it important. Because it challenges one of the central principles of conservation biology: the minimum viable population sizewhich establishes that below a threshold a population has a high probability of becoming extinct due to genetic drift, inbreeding and accumulation of mutations (the figure depends on the species and the model, but classical models point to hundreds or even thousands of individuals). Understanding these processes provides theoretical tools to better manage invasive species and the conservation of genetic reservoirs. That five cows founded a viable population for more than a century is, in that context, an anomaly that science could not ignore. In addition, it offers a valuable perspective on the speed at which evolutionary and behavioral changes can occur in a mammal when the bond of domestication is broken. Context. Amsterdam Island is part of the French Southern and Antarctic Lands. We are talking about an isolated island ecosystem where there were neither large predators nor other large competing herbivores, so what is a bit of cold and wind. This initial condition made it possible for livestock to spread, although in the long run overpopulation ended up causing serious damage to the native flora and threatening endemic birds. Under the microscope, the samples analyzed revealed that there was a mixed ancestry: a combination of mainly European bullfighting cattle, but also Indian Ocean zebu. After analyzing the climate, they found that the conditions were not too different from other known scenarios in old Europe, such as Brittany, so the cows were not starting from scratch: your preadaptation to the climate cushioned the impact to the new habitat. What really happened. Some initial research they pointed to the fact that the cattle suffered from accelerated “island dwarfism” to adapt to the scarcity of resources, although genomic analyzes ruled it out: if these island cows were small it was simply due to direct inheritance from their ancestors, the also relatively small zebus of Madagascar and Jersey breed. The real change occurred in his behavior: the study identified that the genes that evolved the fastest were related to the nervous system, which the authors interpret as the genomic signature of feralization: the ability to organize in herds, reactivate alert responses and survive without human intervention. Yes, but. What this quintet of cows achieved was a feat of survival, but at what price: the genetic analysis showed a moderate reduction in their genetic diversity and a slight accumulation of potentially harmful variants, something to be expected after such a severe bottleneck, although without reaching the critical levels associated with populations at risk of extinction. Furthermore, the story had a sad and controversial ending: considering the damage they caused to the island’s environment, the authorities decided to sacrifice all the cows in 2010 and this unique experiment and its extraordinary and particular genetic lineage came to an end. In Xataka | In 1788 the English took five cows to Australia. Unknowingly, they activated a “time bomb” that exploded 200 years later In Xataka | That time the Australian army took out the tanks against the emus… And lost Cover | Copernicus Sentinel 2021 via Wikimedia and Iga Palacz

Mathematicians have a simple way to increase the odds of winning the jackpot. Another thing is that it compensates

By more than try Abel Caballero, the beginning of Christmas (at least in Spain) is not marked by the lighting of the lights of Vigo, but by a much more consolidated tradition: the raffle of the Christmas Lottery. Every December 22, thousands of Spaniards tune in to TV, radio or press the ‘F5’ key on their computers every so often in the hope that the children of San Idelfonso sing your number. However, the probability of this happening is very low, as much as choosing a name at random from the census of a city and getting it right. The question is… Are there ways to expand that probability? 1 in 100,000. The Christmas Lottery generates excitement and makes thousands of Spaniards get out of bed on December 22 with a special tingle: the hope of seeing how their bank accounts suddenly add a handful more zeros. That is undeniable. Just as it is that, if we leave aside the illusion, the chances of our tenth(s) winning are very small. Lower case. The data speaks for itself and leaves little room for hope: in the hype 100,000 balls enter with numbers from 00000 to 99,999. Your number has the same exit options as the other 99,999, one 0.001% probability. Mathematics VS hope. “In these cases the probability is easy to calculate. Since all numbers are equally probable (there is a ball for each number), it would be calculated with Laplace’s rule: the number of favorable cases divided by the number of possible cases,” comments Miguel Ángel Morales, mathematician and author of the blog Gaussians for almost two decades. “Assuming that we have only one tenth, the probability of winning El Gordo would be 1 (there is only one Gordo) in 100,000 (since there are 100,000 numbers that enter the draw). That is, a probability of 0.00001.” What does that mean? Since talking about drums, tenths and statistics can be too abstract, Morales transfers the figures to something we are much more accustomed to: people. In this case we would exchange the tenths for cards and the drums for the municipal registry of a medium-sized city. “Let’s imagine that we have a DNI of someone from Santiago de Compostela and a list with the names of all its inhabitants (about 1,000,000),” reflects the professor. “The probability would be similar to the one we have of choosing one of those names at random and turning out to be the person with the DNI that we had at the beginning.” “If we talk about the total number of prizes, the way to calculate the probability would be the same: we would have to change the 1 (a single Gordo) for the number of prizes. Sticking to the main prizes, as there is a First, a Second, a Third, two Fourths and eight Fifths, the probability of getting a main prize with a single tenth would be 13 divided by 100000, 0.00013.” The big question. There is no Christmas without its Lottery and there is no draw in which it is not considered the same question: Do we have any way to increase our chances of success, however slim they may be? Is there any way to scratch a little more probability, even a few tenths? The answer is yes. And not. The starting data is what it is, but precisely for this reason our chances of being happy on the morning of December 22 increase as the number of different tenths that we have in our portfolio increases. More options? More tenths? “The only way to increase the probabilities is, effectively, to buy more tenths of different numbers,” confirms Morales. “If we have five of different numbers, the probability of winning the jackpot would be 5 in 100,000, which is 0.00005. There are no more mathematical ways to increase the probability of winning a prize.” That is, if what you want is to “maximize” your chances of success, you will have no choice but to put more eggs in the basket. Having more bills of the same number (even if you have a hunch) will only help you win more money in case that combination wins, it does not increase your options. “Speaking of refund, the probability would be one in ten if we have a single tenth. Obviously, buying more tenths with different endings would help us have a greater probability of getting that refund,” he adds. And Doña Manolita or the ‘tricks’? The Christmas Lottery is not only peculiar because of the Gordo, the stones and its symbolic value. It is also because in it statistics and pure hunch go hand in hand (just like in other games of chance). Hence there are people willing to endure long lines outside to buy a tenth at Doña Manolita or to always play the same number, perhaps a special number that coincides with your birthday or the date your child was born. Works? Do these ‘tricks’ improve our chances? Morales is very clear about whether the latter (repeating a number year after year) influences our fortunes: “No, it does not increase it. All draws are independent, which means that what comes out in a draw does not depend on what happened in the previous ones. They have no memory. Mathematically speaking, always playing the same number does not increase the probability of winning.” The administrations of “luck”. There is also no difference between buying a tenth at the corner fruit shop or doing it in administrations so famous like Doña Manolita, The Bruixa d’OrLotería Valdés or El Gato Negro. Manuel García, an expert in Statistics at the European University, was also very clear about this a few days ago in an interview with the diary ACE. “They give out more prizes because they sell more numbers, not because they are luckier. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy effect. It’s very important because since it has that reputation (I don’t know how it originates) people usually go there to buy. They are the ones that … Read more

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