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Tsutomu Uchida is 64 years old, is a retired entrepreneur and for a while now He spends hours working on a plot located in the Shizuoka districtwhere different cultivation techniques prove. So far unusual. The funny thing is that Uchida is not dedicated to Plant riceneither soy nor Mikana very popular citrus in the region. No. His interest has little to do with traditional vegetables. What is trying to grow since 2020 are avocados, a plant that wakes up more interest in Japanese agriculture. The reason: the market … and climate change. What happened? That in Japan, Rice landcherries and citrus, there are farmers who begin to Look with interest A new variety of crop, a very popular in other latitudes but that has so far had an almost testimonial weight in the country of the rising sun: avocado. And the most curious thing is what that curiosity is awakening. Beyond the growing Internal demand or the Production increase Worldwide, the factor that has led Japanese farmers to plant avocados is climate change. Shizuoka avocado. The news I advanced it A few days ago The Japan Times: More and more farmers in Shizuoka Prefecture show interest in avocados. The phenomenon is curious for several reasons. First, because the traditional cultivation of that region is another good, the Mikana citrus similar to mandarin. The second reason is that this interest It is promoted by local authorities. Shizuoka Prefecture has just activated a triennial plan that aspires, among other goals, to develop cultivation techniques and sales channels focused on avocado. With that purpose the institution plans to invest over the coming months 18 million yen (about 100,000 euros) in investigations to improve local production. Putting his head. If everything goes as planned, in three years you will publish a manual for farmers. It may seem like a modest initiative, but it is quite significant: Shizuoka is one of the main producing regions of Mikan From Japan and right now the avocado cultivation in the country is very small. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in 2022 there were hardly any 34 tons who came out above all from Saga, Ehime and Wakayama, territories that (exact!) have always stood out for their citrus. TEMPERATURES QUESTION. The most curious thing is that this growing interest in avocado is not explained only for its internal demand or market prospects. At stake there is another equal or even more relevant factor for Japanese farmers: climate change. Their effects already They let themselves feel in the Rice crops and They threaten to punish to much of the plantations of Mikan of the country while They favor to those of avocado, a tree originally from Mesoamerica. “We cannot simply advance complaining about the negative impact of change on the agricultural environment. We are trying to convert this adversity into an opportunity and make the most of it,” Recognize to The Japan Times Yuji Hirano, responsible for agricultural strategies in the government of Shizuoka. With that clear idea, the prefecture probes the pros and cons of betting on a dozen subtropical crops in the region. Among them there was one that stood out for their “pull” in the market and that could also be favored by the weather: the avocado. But … what are they based on? In forecasts that draw such a promising scenario for avocado as a funeral for the Mikan. In March the National Organization for Agricultural and Food Research (Naro) public A report in which he warns that the future of citrus in Japan “will depend largely” on greenhouse gas emissions while avocado suitable areas could expand its current size more than 2.5 times by the middle of the century. An uncertain horizon. Nikkei It goes further And he warns that climate change can make that at the end of the Japanese century find that 80% of the areas that are right now for the cultivation of tangerines cease to be. With the land suitable for avocado plantations, a subtropical fruit, the opposite would happen: they would multiply by 7.7. “Maybe you think that a temperature difference of 1ºC does not mean much,” Clarify Toshihiko Sugiura, from Naro. “But for him Mikan It makes the difference. “ Hence the scenario can vary greatly depending on what happens in the coming years. If for 2100 the temperature rise does not exceed 1.4ºC the country may keep 80% of the current surface destined for Mikan. If the increase is 4.3ºC as soon as any. However, and although the increase in temperatures may make it easier, the avocado is not guaranteed in Japan either: the winter cold waves would mean a serious threat. The other key: the market. The other factor that explains Shizuoka’s interest in avocado should be sought in the market. The Japan Times remember that today the fruit is much more popular in the Japanese fruit shops than a few decades ago. And the data show it. In 1988, only 3,400 tons were imported. In 2020 there were already 80,000. That boom coincided with an increasing exposure of the fruit in the country’s media, which began to highlight its nutritional value as “superfiment” rich in vitamins and fiber. Today the avocado is already integrated from the diet of many Japanese and it is easy to find in supermarkets, although the nation basically depends on imports. The vast majority (at least in 2020) comes from Mexico, where they start around 85% of importsand Peru, which brings together about 11%. National production is scarce and is sold at prices greater than foreign fruit. 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