The most touristic enclave in Italy has two news programs left. It is quite a warning for the half of the Spanish coast
The advance of climate change is leaving more or less obvious signs that range from the maturation of fruit trees earlier to intense heat waves even before summer arrives like the one we are livingbut the future is bleak: more torrential rains and floods, more droughts, places that will be uninhabitable due to climatic conditions… or directly because they have been swallowed by the sea. Without going any further, the image you see above these lines is a classic in tourist destinations: the famous and colorful Italian Cinque Terre towns. A research team has elaborated the first map of what awaits them in 2150 and the scenario borders on the apocalyptic. Cinque Terre in serious danger of disappearing. This study analyzes two of the most exposed Cinque Terre towns, Monterosso and Vernazza, projecting how their coast will evolve until the year 2150 under different levels of greenhouse gas emissions according to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). In the worst emissions scenario, the sea level in that area could rise up to 1.17 meters, which means permanently saying goodbye to more than 22,000 square meters of coastline. To make it clear during the World Cup: about three football fields. In the best case scenario, the figure would be “only” 9,931 square meters. The figure may seem low, but in coastal areas with a morphology as narrow and steep as that of the Cinque Terre, they imply the loss of entire beaches, docks and access to transport such as the train that connects them. Thinking more than 100 years ahead may seem far away, but the reality is that the global rate of sea rise has gone from 2.13 mm to almost 5 mm since the 90s, according to the World Meteorological Organization. In short: the process has already started and you have stepped on the accelerator. Why is it important. Because Cinque Terre is the canary in the mine of many other municipalities, touristy or not, that are going to sink in the coming decades in a tragic process that involves demographic, climatic and economic changes. In fact, the decline of beaches and the loss of functionality of ports and infrastructure are already being noticed, which will have a direct impact on the local economy, which depends almost entirely on tourism. But Cinque Terre are more than postcard towns: their cliffs converted into agricultural terraces and their territorial planning have been a UNESCO World Heritage Site since 1997. Losing them totally or partially is not like a resort collapsing: it is a tragedy. And it won’t be the only one: this study has calculated that of the 49 World Heritage sites on low-lying Mediterranean coasts, 37 are already at risk of serious flooding today and that this risk could increase by 50% before 2100. Context. In the analysis of climate change on the coasts, the Mediterranean has turned on the turbo: it is rising faster than the global average. Between 2000 and 2018, the Mediterranean Sea rose about seven centimeters, a rate much higher than that of the 20th century as a whole. according to research from the British National Oceanography Center. Liguria, the region where Cinque Terre is located, takes the cake: it combines the rise of the sea with a gradual sinking of the land itself. But the reality is global and even darker: in a generalized way we are losing rocky coast and probably faster than we think: science has records of cliff retreats of just 150 years and projections until 2100. In short: we are underestimating the rise in sea level. In detail. This study stands out for how exhaustive it is and the quality and quantity of sources with which it works: it uses topography obtained with high-resolution drones, high-precision seafloor maps, geodetic data of land subsidence with GPS networks and applied the three main IPCC climate scenarios to calculate the projected flooding in 2030, 2050, 2100 and 2150. The usual thing is to stay at 2100, but the team has expanded that horizon with half a century more to see processes that the shorter models overlook: especially the slow sinking of the own land due to geological causes. In fact, there are already studies that evidence that the IPCC forecasts fall short precisely because they ignore that factor. Yes, but. Although the study is rigorous and solid, as the research team itself clarifies, Cinque Terre will not disappear overnight and this apocalyptic scenario will only happen if adaptation and mitigation measures are not adopted. On the other hand, the most unfavorable scenarios take into account global emissions that current climate agreements seek to avoid. In Xataka | There is a corner of Spain where global warming is wreaking havoc: the Pyrenees are becoming “Mediterraneanized” In Xataka | It turns out that there are invasive land snakes that take to the sea from Ibiza. And they are annihilating a unique lizard Cover | Rahul Chakraborty and The First Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges Scenarios up to 2150 CE for the Coasts of Monterosso and Vernazza, Cinque Terre National Park (Liguria, Italy)
