bubble

OpenAI is building the biggest house of cards in history. Its “circular financing” aggravates the threat of the AI ​​bubble

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Yesterday OpenAI and Broadcom announced a collaboration agreement that will see both companies design and deploy 10 GW of custom AI chips over the course of four years. It’s a new episode of that unusual strategy that OpenAI has carried out and which is summarized in an increasingly disturbing concept: that of circular financing. Multimillion-dollar agreements. In recent weeks we have seen how OpenAI has reached new agreements worth billions of dollars with large companies in the semiconductor sector. Thus, we have: Circular financing. All these advertisements respond to a unique circular financing strategy in which chip companies (the suppliers) not only sell their products to an AI startup (customer), but also invest capital in that startup, which in turn uses that capital to buy more products from its investor. In reality, the supplier “does not invest” as such, because that money ends up going back into purchases of its products and services. It is in fact something similar to what OpenAI did with Microsoft when the latter invested $13 billion in it. Rather than investing them, it allowed him to use a kind of subscription for that amount to use his cloud, Azure, and its computing resources. It’s a win-win for some and for others. OpenAI wins. These agreements allow OpenAI to have guaranteed access to computing, something you need like eating. The startup spends billions a year and still not profitablebut thanks to this strategy he obtains a massive flow of capital. In the case of Broadcom, it also manages to collaborate in the design of customized chips for minimize future dependence on other partners (such as NVIDIA or AMD) and thus enjoy a lower total cost of ownership in the long term. And by signing with three different semiconductor suppliers, it encourages competition and improves its bargaining power. Bright. Suppliers win. The circular strategy also benefits NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom. All of them gain a customer with almost unlimited demand, and can register immediate income from the sale of chips while the cost of the investment is amortized over time. NVIDIA also manages to maintain its dominant position, while AMD and Broadcom manage to expand in this market. If there are also actions involved, all of them are revalued and participating in each other is another element of interest in these financial operations. They reinforce and grow larger among themselves, and while they weaken all the others. A gigantic house of cards. But compared to that strategy, reality. And the reality is that this circular flow of capital is creating artificial demand in which the supplier pays itself. The systemic risk is enormous: if OpenAI fails or AI growth slows, the domino effect can significantly affect these vendors and their investors. We are facing a huge (and fragile) house of cards that, if it collapses, will have equally enormous consequences. The AI ​​bubbleif it really exists, continues to grow and grow. Total uncertainty. There is also absolute uncertainty about the promise of AI: will we really use it as much as these companies think we will? Will OpenAI be able to deliver on its promise and turn a profit in 2030? It is impossible to know. Finally, another problem: these circular agreements make these companies larger, but they make the entry of new competitors in both markets increasingly complicated. There are winners, but also losers. While all this is happening and the shares of these companies are skyrocketing, the reality is that there are also losers. The retail investor is blind to these events—and suspicions about cases of insider trading They are inevitable. And of course when talking about competition we are not talking about new competitors, but also current ones. Anthropic or Perplexity, with already established businesses, now finds it more difficult to compete. Google, Microsoft or Meta have plenty of infrastructure and economic resources, but they are still seeing how OpenAI is getting bigger and bigger without being able to prevent it. If successful, OpenAI may end up being above all of them, because it seeks the same thing that every company seeks even if it does not admit it: become a monopoly. Image | Xataka with Freepik – Gemini In Xataka | You thought you had an amazing connection on Tinder, but you were actually chatting with ChatGPT

The Irobot co -founder believes that there is a robotics bubble

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Rodney Brooks believes that humanoid robots are a bubble condemned to explode. Anyone says it: Brooks was the co -founder of Irobot, the company that manufactures the famous robots aspirations of the Roba family. Too nice to be true. This expert, who before Irobot worked for decades at MIT, does not believe that in the future we live surrounded by human robots. Observe skepticism the developments of companies such as Tesla or Figure, who work in robots that learn to move as humans. In a new essay He talks about this type of way of thinking about the future “is pure fantasy.” The bottleneck of skill. In his opinion, the problem is that trying to imitate the skill of movement of a human hand – for example – is an almost impossible mission. Especially since there are 17,000 specialized tactile receptors (and that detect pressure, vibration, texture or sliding) that it is not possible to find in humanoid robots. There is, however, concrete advances in this area. Insufficient training. According to Brooks, “we don’t have that kind of tradition for touch data.” This area is different from what has been achieved with other areas such as language recognition or image processing. In his essay he explains how learning based on visual videos of humans performing tasks are not enough for robots to acquire that skill. An experiment. To reinforce his theory, Brooks commented on how in an experiment a person was anesthetized the fingertips to analyze the skill of his hands. In this experiment it was seen how the person took four times more to complete a simple task such as lighting a match. The touch sensation, says this expert, is irreplaceable. Tree goes. But it also warns of the security risks posed by these robots. Keeping them standing requires a lot of energy, he says, and if they fall they can end up being A real risk. The reason is that as explained by the kinetic energy of its limbs, it is amplified by the Law of Scale. Robots with tweezers. For him the “humanoid robots” of the future will be of everything but humanoids. Instead in 15 years what we will see are robots with wheels, several arms, industrial tweezers and specialized sensors. The huge current investments that technology companies are making will not crystallize in that theoretical mass production of humanoid robots. China does believe in humanoid robots. Brooks’ arguments are powerful, but the truth is that China is demonstrating have an absolute faith in it future of this segment. The current humanoid robots are limited in their benefits and capacity, but the investment in this market and the advances that are being made are undeniable. What will have to be verified is whether that human skill and tactile perception end up in effect insurmountable obstacles for such robots. In Xataka | China has just opened the first megatienda of humanoid robots. What comes later promises even more

We have been talking for months that there is an AI bubble. The worrying thing is that even Sam Altman agrees

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One thing is that AI pessimists tell us that there is a bubble. Another very different is that Sam Altman suggested, CEO of Openai. But it is what has happened, and that is a worrying indication of the situation in which this segment is located. Every time More expert voices They warn of danger of a bubble from AIbut there are not only voices: there are data that raise a potential crisis. One that could be even more harmful than that of the Puntocom. What has Altman said. The head of OpenAI, the company that develops ChatgPT, invited a group of journalists to comment on the launch of GPT-5. During that meeting, they indicate in The Vergesaid the following: “When bubbles occur, intelligent people are excessively excited about (which is actually so alone) a pinch of truth. Are we in a phase in which investors in general are too excited about AI? My opinion is that yes. Is AI the most important thing that has happened in a long time? My opinion is also that “ Remembering the story. Altman compared the current dynamics with which he experienced During the bubble of the Puntocom In the late 2000s. Between March 2000 and October 2002, NASDAQ lost about 80% of its value: many of the companies that signed up for Internet fever and the web failed La Hora to generate income or benefits. The value of the 10 most important companies of the S&P 500 index is today much greater than the one in the 90s, and that points to a potential (and huge) bubble. Source: Apollo Global Management / Tornsten Slok. Worse than the bubble of the Puntocom. Economic analysts and experts have long offered arguments that point in the direction of a potential bubble of AI. The chief economist of the investment firm Apollo Global Management, Torsten Sløk, indicated in a report That this bubble could be worse than that of the Puntocom: the 10 most important companies of the S&P 500 index have a value well above the 10 that occupied those positions in the late 90s. Too much speculation. Ray Wang, director of the Futurum Group semiconductor firm, showed two faces of the same currency. As he said In CNBC, “From the perspective of a broader investment in AI and semiconductors … I do not see it as a bubble. The foundations of the entire supply chain remain solid, and the long -term trajectory of the trend of AI supports the continuous investment” But at the same time, he stressed that there is a problem with this segment: there is too much speculative investment in companies that have less solid bases and in which there is only one perception of its potential without real foundations – Hello, Safe Superintelligencehello Thinking Machines-. It’s hard, but bubbles have their good side. As Alberto Romero points out In your Newsletter“In a way, bubbles are an inevitable and welcome phase between short -term selfishness and long -term progress.” In his opinion and That of other experts Like Mills Baker, manager at substock: “He Hype It is acceptable under the premise that only an optimistic character, prone to exaggeration and hyperbole, can build the new world for which a bubble is only the starting point, his big bang. The cynical and pessimistic character is a useful counterweight to excessive optimism (…). While optimism is an active creation force, pessimism is a reactive modulation force. “ Source: Paul Kedrosky. When the trains were the AI. Or what is the same: for the world to advance, bubbles are (or can be) necessary. We saw it with the Puntocom: it is true that the crisis existed, but that uncounted optimism in the future of the Internet ended up making sense. Of course, only a few companies (the great current empires) ended up benefiting. But it is that something very similar happened with the railroads at the end of the 19th century. At that time the investment and the capex in these infrastructure was colossal –five times greater that the one who lives now in AI – and although many companies broke, but from that bubble we left with an absolute revolution both at the level of transport and economic and social. But this bubble can be very, very large. As points Romero, the difference here between optimistic and pessimistic (or realistic) speeches is growing, and that is worrying. The expectations that the companies of AI and their CEOs are creating (with Altman in front, The man-hype) They are increasing. They constantly tell us about How are we close to reach the AGIbut the reality is that there are no real indications that this is so and in fact there is a Founder of AI. Faced with the promises of the revolution that theoretically should have begun to generate AI, the reality is that the advances do not seem extraordinary. In fact, a study of the MIT discovered that after asking 150 entrepreneurs and 350 employees of companies that have integrated AI in their processes, 95% had not seen any benefit in doing so. Better Wait for GPT-6. GPT-5 has demonstrated, a model for which we expected A historical jump And that in the end raises an improvement that for now it is discreet and that he introduced changes They were Very criticized. The launch of this model has been a small disaster that He has forced To the company to give reverse In several of your decisions. As He pointed out Walter Bloomberg, Altman himself admitted that GPT-5 had been a failure, and now bets on GPT-6. Source: Michael A. Arouet. The data worries. Seemingly excessive spending In data centers either In talent It is not the only concern. There is also that absolute concentration of companies that concentrate the value. An analyst named Michael A. Aouet published these days A graph in which he showed two income growth trends. On the one hand, that of the 490 companies of the S&P 500 excluding … Read more

In Spain a book is published every six minutes. It is the symptom of a bubble that does not stop inflating

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When talking about the health of the editorial industry in Spain, publication figures are usually used to justify the good condition that the book business lives. However, rapid accounts lead to thinking perhaps just the opposite: excess launches may be hypertrophy the bookstores, which are suffocated by a series of very uninjury side effects. How much is published? The Latest public data from the Ministry of Culture They speak of 92,000 books a year with ISBN, that is, more than 250 books a day. Every minute, six books. And that telling only the launches with legal deposit, that is, we do not count the self -edge (last year, it was around the three newspapers … By author) For platforms as widespread as Amazon. That do not count as part of the editorial cake but add thousands of potential titles per month to the mountain of slopes of the troubled readers. Success is what is sought. Why so much novelty? There are a number of reasons that make up a very complex ecosystem to explain this production overdose. On the one hand, it is an editorial strategy for compensate for the fall in sales by book: except Bestsellers And specific successes, the books sell less, the runs are lower and the publishers multiply their offer to cushion it. From there comes a constant publication and search of that new success that supplies the previous one. The fact that Increase global income Although the runs fall, it is proof that The strategy works. Oihan Iturbide, former Editor, counted in the jump that “the editorial industry looks more like a fast food chain than a restaurant with a good homemade menu: the key is in volume, not in quality.” Many are. On the other hand, there is the proliferation of new publishers: In 2024Spain had approximately 3,160 active publishers. It does not imply a very notable change with respect to previous years (comparable to 2016, and notoriously less than 3,564 of 2009, year with Spain in a very different economic context). Of these, only about 2,000 publishers launch more than 10 titles per year, and only 13 exceed 700 annual titles. Is it a note of diversity and vitality of the sector? Yes. But also of the enormous contrast between the large Spanish editorial groups (Planet and Penguin Random House, more Santillana in the educational field) and the rest: According to the Federation of the Editors Guildthree out of four books come from these groups. The distribution fish. This overproduction atmosphere (Rubén Hernández, by Errata Naturae, Talk about those 92,000 books per year “One third is returned to the darkness of the stores and is probably guillotine”) is contaminated with the complex distribution system in Spain. This is also Hernández: “The publisher publishes with a price (…) of 10 euros and it is sent to the distributor. The bookseller buys it with a discount close to 35%, from which he obtains his benefit, and pays 6.5 euros to the distributor, which stays 2 euros and pays the remaining 4.5 euros, that he does not pay him, but offers him a loan. “ The snowball continues to grow: “In turn, the distributor claims to the editor of his 4.5 euros, which he does not pay him, so he contracts a debt. And to reimburse it, the editor has no choice but to invest the 4.5 euros he has won (but he must) in another book that, after arriving at the bookseller, activates his credit, while the distributor enters another 2 euros. Book, the editor and the bookseller receive debts or credits. A vitiated system very similar to a bubble that continues to grow without brake. Are all bad news? No: the evidence that it is published too much allows publishers to realize that The situation can become unsustainable. Possible solutions to Very vicious system of returns in bookstores. The excess of supply is not bad in itself, unless it leads to overproduction and atibor the system until it is bursting. It is obvious that six books per minute are too many, but … who is the first to start with the cuts? Header | Photo of Pierre Bamin in Unspash In Xataka | Adult books are therapeutic. But behind there is a framework of demands, plagiarism and complaints

An urbanization was deserted in Valencia after the real estate bubble. Some geniuses have made it ‘Call of Duty’

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The real estate bubble It has had, at least, a positive effect: abandoned residential areas are born to be born a sudden and sporadic new life when they are assaulted by groups of Airsoft fans, a kind of ‘Call of Duty’ in real life that could not aspire to more colorful and appropriate scenarios than those of site as seven waters. What is Airsoft? An activity that Simulates tactical fighting using reprisons of firearms that trigger small plastic balines. These weapons are Real -scale replicas but they do not entail danger (they cannot even be manipulated to become real weapons). The objective is to meet missions or eliminate the opposite team, and over time this hobby has diversified in different styles, ranging from the Recreation of historical battles to modern war clashes that remind it of ‘Call of Duty’. The unusual clash between the Airsoft and the real estate bubble. Airsoft is played in closed environments, which can range from areas specially designed to it to more open but security controls. For example, abandoned industrial areas or empty peoples are used. On many occasions the associations that organize Airsoft games run into legal requirements that require the delimitation of the pitch so that the balls do not exceed their limits or the express permit of the land owner and the corresponding licenses. Therefore, an area like seven waters is especially appreciated by fans. What is seven waters? Seven waters is A municipality in the province of Valencia54 kilometers from the capital and surrounded by a mountain natural environment. It has 1279 inhabitants and a remarkable story with vestiges of the Muslim era, but the most interesting for Airsoft practitioners is an unfinished urbanization where only the streets and about 50 homes were built. The constructions (whose future plans included 684 villas, a shopping center, a hotel and a golf course, all with US financing) They were paralyzed in 2007 for the outbreak of the real estate bubble, and although it is not the only area around seven waters that are abandoned (there are An empty village very close, the reatillo), is the only one that has been recycled for Airsoft practice. Legal Airsoft. The treatment that has reached the Airsoft Plairsoft association and the owner of the urbanizations It is simple and benefits all those involved: the area is rented as a space for sports use, which prevents cases of occupation and vandalism; The owner puts the basic elements of security and surveillance, and the nearby seven waters receive a thrust in its economy and dynamization of other activities (in the area It is practiced mountaineering, riding, Mountain Bikeparagliding and hiking), which take advantage of the natural environment. Zombi attraction park. In 3Dguegosour partner Rubén Márquez compared the reuse of this space to what a few years ago He could see in Detroit: a city with neighborhoods so abandoned that in its day the possibility of recycling them was raised as Zombi theme attraction park. That did not set to curdle, but it is inevitable to think of projects like that when we see men disguised as soldiers with plastic guns, in environments that could have been very close to habitability, with villas that on the outside seem almost functional. A zombie amusement park, but where the guns do not kill. Header | Plairsoft In Xataka | A new movement has emerged in the US: Current people with AR-15 rifles preparing for a social collapse

The Bubble of the AI

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November 16, 1999 Terra NetworksTelefónica’s Internet subsidiary, went over 13 euros surrounded by an unparalleled optimism. In a day he multiplied its price by three and allowed a few (and controversial) fortunate Millionaires instantly. Three months later he marked his historical mart, 157.65 euros. And then, the disaster. The bubble of the Puntocom. Terra was the Spanish paradigm of that phenomenon that shook the bags and especially the pockets of millions of people. In June 2003 Telefónica He ended up buying 100% Terra and paid 5.25 euros per share of investors, an almost symbolic figure taking into account what the company came to assert. The company never had benefits in those years, and in 2002 it lost more than 2,000 million euros, four times more of its income. Terra was the Spanish Nvidia. At the peak its capitalization became more than 38,000 million euros: more than Repsol or the BBVA, and much more than the 24,000 that all telephone is worth today. However, Terra’s revenues in 2002 did not exceed 300 million euros. Does the story sound to you? Probably yes. This is what some claim that it is currently happening with the segment of artificial intelligence, which from the appearance of Chatgpt has generated huge expectations. Even greater than the Internet in the late 1990s. That has inevitably made You talk about an AI bubble. There are apparent signals everywhere: Extraordinary assessments, tiny income: especially in the case of AI startupsthe valuations that companies like OpenAi have are colossal, but Your income is residual If we compare them with their losses. They are literally burning money as if there would be tomorrow. Too much competition: The strategy of all these companies seems to go through Subscription models With plans with various prices, but the problem is hypercompetitiveness: There is no model that is clearly better than the restso here there can be a winner and many losers. Expectations and realities. The managers of these companies are creating huge expectations On the impact of AI on our world, but tangible results are scarce. Everything has to have ia. We are suffering the traditional entertainment of the term “AI”, which makes this technology lose part of its meaning: everything has to have if it is not the fundamental part of the product. Regulatory and ethical challenges. And all this vertiginous development also faces the regulatory efforts that are especially strong in the European Union. Potential bad uses of technology (Deepfakes) or its negative consequences (Impact on employment) They are barriers for their development. We also saw all that with the bubble of the Puntocom, and there are certainly more worrying indications that something weird is happening. The behavior of investors seems much more speculative than rational, media coverage – which tells us – shoots, or excessive trust in the future, despising potential risks, are clear. Is the bubble of AI a reality? From the Puntocom to the Bubble Potential of the AI There are differences between what happened then and what seems to be happening now. To begin with, AI seems to handle an equally solid or even more product than the Internet was when that bubble exploded: the impact is already being noticed in industries such as programming, for example. In all cases the reality of AI is usually overwhelmed: this does not replace human work, But it enhances it. It is the new bicycle for the mindand those who use it – be in creative spheres or not – know that AI helps to do things faster and even better. But unlike what happened with the Puntocom, this impulse of AI is much more starring the large technological companies, which are clear that they do not want anyone to advance them for the right. Internet startups like Yahoo! Or Google surprised the giants of that time, and although there are now startups with an extraordinary assessment (OpenAi), it is also true that they will have a lot of competition from very based companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet or Nvidia, which has benefited especially from this explosion of interest in AI. The potential of AI is evident, and is so clear or more than the one in the Internet then. But many startups of that bubble They did not have a clear business model: It was almost enough to buy a .com domain and have a good sales speech of the idea to get immediate financing because nobody wanted to stay out of that market. Internet ended up having an almost unprecedented impact on the history of mankind, and created technological giants that supported themselves in that revolution. As they explain In five days“Neither everything was smoke, nor is it all solid.” AI is generating colossal and even disturbing expectations, but it is not clear that Let’s be facing another bubble like that of the Puntocom. Time will end up responding to this unknown. Image | Anne Nygård In Xataka | The Copilot+ PC promised a revolution. I have tried one and for now there are more promises than realities

A “bubble” in your defense

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A little over a decade ago, the United States’s fleet of aircraft carriers looked back and did not see anyone absolutely. There was not a single nation that approached the operational and quantitative supremacy of the Navy. And yet, just ten years later something has changed. In 2024, its fleet proved to remain the first of the league to face massive drones and missile attacks at the Red Seabut when he looks back now, Someone approaches every pill: China. The data that changes everything. In power shown by the United States in the Red Sea it is possible thanks to The powerful fleet of 11 USed of the US Navythat dominates both the Atlantic and the Pacific. However, a new rival is emerging quickly: China, which happened not to have a single carrier just over a decade ago To currently have three and an ambitious expansion plan with a room on the road that could be of nuclear propulsion. Historically, China has been a terrestrial power, but on its way to become a naval superpower, it has prioritized the modernization of its fleet. From Liaoning’s acquisition in 2012a rebuilt Soviet helmet, until The launch of the advanced Fujian in 2022the nation has not only shown that it can build aircraft carrier, but can design and operate them independently. Plus: It has a defensive bubble that gives it an advantage. 2049, the date marked in red. The Chinese objective is clear: Have at least seven carriers for 2049centenary of the Chinese revolution and date on which Beijing has set, a priori, his goal of reunification with Taiwan, by peaceful means (or military). Currently, the Navy of the Popular Liberation Army (Plan) already exceeds the United States Navy in number of ships, With more than 370 vessels against the 295 Americans. No doubt, if China manages to expand its fleet of aircraft carriers and improve its technology to the current rhythm, it could directly challenge US naval supremacy in the Indo-Pacific. The future of the war of aircraft carrier. If the United States and China maintain their current development rates, the 2040s will be a turning point in the global naval balance. The United States will deploy its sixth generation hunting NEXT GENERATION Air Dominance (NGAD)designed to overcome the weaknesses of the F-35 and offer greater scope and attack capacity. With a mix F-35C and NGAD, the American fleet will have an advantage in long-range air combat. China, meanwhile, will develop the J-35 hunting, its version of the F-35, and possibly introduce a new naval combat plane (J-XX). It will also have Your own KJ-600 early alert planeequivalent to E-2 Hawkeye. A different strategy. Unlike the United States Navy, where aircraft carriers are the central axis of their maritime strategy, China does not seem to depend on them as the cornerstone of their naval power. Instead of using them to project power globally, The Navy of the Popular Liberation Army (Plan) operates its aircraft carriers within a highly protected environmentprotected by his advanced ANTI-ACCESSING/DENion of Area Strategy (A2/AD in English). This defensive system has been Designed to master the first island chain (which includes Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines) and neutralize any attempt at US military intervention in the region. In other words, Chinese aircraft carriers are not, for themselves, a global naval supremacy tool. They are, rather, force multipliers inside the defensive shield A2/ADwhich allows them to operate with greater security and support Beijing’s growing influence on the Indo-Pacific. The expansion of aircraft carriers in the strategy. Counted in The National Interest That the development of the China aircraft fleet has been rapid and methodical. What began with the Liaoning, that old rebuilt Soviet helmet and even belittled by the naval powers, has become an increasingly advanced and ambitious naval construction program. As we said at the beginning, China currently has three aircraft carriers. Namely: the Liaoning (2012), and the first of its class mainly used for training and tests. Then it is The Shandong (2019)an improved version of the Liaoning, but even with technological limitations, such as its ramp take-off system (skii-jump), and Finally the Fujian (2022)the most advanced so far, With electromagnetic catapults (EMALS) and a design that brings it closer to the standards of US carriers. Liaoning A room on the road. The fourth aircraft carrier, whose launch is planned in the coming years, I could mark a milestone for China if it really is nuclear propulsionwhich would significantly increase its autonomy and capacity of operations away from the Chinese coast. The key: a bubble. The concept of anti-access/denial of area (A2/AD) is based on The combination of long -range missiles, advanced radars and electronic war systems to create a defensive shield that hinders the entry of enemy forces into a specific region. In this regard, China has developed a sophisticated A2/AD network in the Indo-Pacificusing anti -men’s ballistic missiles (as the DF-21D and The DF-26), Advanced Air Defense Systems, Silent Submarines and Electronic Interference Technology to deter and neutralize the US military presence in the region. In fact, thanks to this kind of bubble Of defense, Chinese carriers do not need to operate independently or venture away from their coasts. Instead, They can move with relative security within the protected areausing its airplanes to reinforce Beijing control over Taiwan and the South China Sea. For its part, United States aircraft carriers do not have this level of protection in the Western Pacific. While the American navy remains the most powerful naval force in the world, its attack groups of aircraft carriers can be threatened when operating within the radius of the Chinese missiles, which exposes them to a much greater risk. Strategic impact Thus, Beijing’s strategy completely changes the rules of the game in the Pacific. Instead of competing directly with the United States in the amount of aircraft carrier and its power projection capacity, China is building a naval force designed to make US carriers less effective Within its sphere of influence. This inevitably leads … Read more

The price of housing in Spain is already higher than in the bubble peak. But the data has a small trick

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That Spain has A problem With housing it is no novelty. Even so, it is interesting to find data that specifies to what extent it has been complicated to access a house in this country. The Property Registrars they just disseminated one that results especially valuable And it shows that those who want to buy an apartment today meet the highest prices of the historical series, even above those of the 2007 real estate bubble. However, it is convenient to handle those figures with perspective. Prices above 2007. The real estate market is in full Price climbing. That also does not suppose any surprise and can be seen in the ascending curves that have been showing for a long time graphics like those of the idealistic portal. This week the College of Registrars published A report That leaves an extra, more interesting reading. The sustained price increase has led to the average housing price has reached in Spain “A new historical maximum”overcoming the values ​​that were handled in 2007, before the real estate bubble. According to the data collected by the registrars, the average cost during the last quarter of 2024 stood at € 2,164/m2. Table of the study of registrars on the evolution of the price of housing. Going down to detail. The dossier It allows to delve even more and check for example how the new and ‘second -hand’ housing housing market is responding, which has accumulated from afar the largest volume of sale operations. In fact, almost 637,000 transactions Scored by the professional body throughout 2024, just over 505,000 were starring used properties, 6.4% more than the previous year. The new house left ‘Solo’ 132,000 sale, although that data reflects a considerable increase with respect to 2023, of 21.6%. As for prices, at the end of 2024 the square meter of the release was charged on average to 2,338 euroswhile that of the already used properties was quoted at 2,133. In the first case the price exceeds that it was handled between 2006 and 2007, before the brick bubble exploded. The same does not happen with the second -hand housing, which although it has been more expensive, it would still continue slightly below of those prestisis values. Prices with small print. The study of registrars of Spain effectively shows an average price of housing in historical maximums, above of the 2007 level, but the big question is … does that mean that the houses are more uninquerable today than before the real estate bubble? To answer that question, you have to take into account the difference between the nominal valuesthat measure the current prices of each moment (in this case 2024) and The real onesin which the effect of inflation is taken into account. A few days ago, after the publication of the registrars dossier, Doctor of Economics Daniel Fuentes He warned in x which shows nominal prices, with which the comparison between 2007 and 2024 has 17 years apart. And its inflation. The nuance does not remain value to the report data, but it should be taken into account if comparisons are made with the prices prior to the 2007 brick crisis. Click on the image to go to Tweet. More perspectives. In fact, registrars are not the only ones who have published more or less updated information on Spanish real estate market prices. In April 2024 the Bank of Spain launched A report in which it clearly reflected the differences between nominal and real values. According to their calculations, in 2023 the average housing prices had been recovered since 2014 with a nominal revaluation of 56%; But in terms of real revaluation that rise was much lower, of 30%. What does that mean? That in the first case the prices of 2023 were about to exceed those of 2007 (they were 2% below); But in the second, taking into account the real values, the average of 2023 was still 28.5% lower at 2007. The indicator Tinsa Imie (monthly real estate market index) December It also shows that, although the values ​​have grown clearly, the general indicator It is still below of the scored in 2007. Graph of the Annual Report of 2023 on the housing market in Spain. Graph of the Bank of Spain on the evolution of the price of nominal and real housing. Evolution of the price of housing in Spain reflected in the October October report. Different situations. That current prices approach or exceed those of 2006 and 2007 also mean that the current scenario is the same as that of the years prior to the brick crisis. “The demand after the bubble was speculative, the one now is demographic,” says Fuentes In your tweet. During A talk with The country Santiago Carbó, Professor of Economic Analysis, also ruled out a crisis similar to that of the bubble. The reason: the great current challenge of Spain is the mismatch between supply and demand, rather than indebtedness, as was the case then. The problem, Carbó aboundsis that finding affordable housing becomes “increasingly difficult” and it will be difficult for the measures taken by the Government to let their effects feel this year or even the next one. “The incorporation of thousands of floors to the market would be needed to relieve this tension, and that requires years.” Is there more? Yeah. The study of the registrars allows to know three other factors equally interesting: the differences between regions, the number of signed mortgages and the weight of foreign buyers. With regard to the first issue, that of the lags between communities, the report shows that disparate realities coexist in the Spanish market. For example, while Madrid led the cost of the house, with € 3,780/m2, in Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura that average did not even reach the € 1,000 barrier. The weight of the foreign buyer … and the banks. The report also shows that the vast majority of purchases are made with bank financing. Throughout the last quarter of 2024, 124,000 … Read more

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