The last 48 hours in Ukraine have been plagued by actions and decisions that can change the course of the conflict. Russia has carried out The biggest attack to date on Ukraine with a swarm of drones and a number of missiles released as not remembered. kyiv, meanwhile, needs the help that does not arrive (Patriots) from the United States to deal with Moscow’s disposses, and in the meantime, the West has taken A decision that could change everything.
The resurgence of TU-95. In the early hours of March 26, Russia executed the Most significant aerial offensive of the last months, by deploying ten strategic bombers TU-95msm To launch a wave of KH-101 cruise missiles About Ukraine. Six of these aircraft took off from the Olenya Air Base, to the north of the country next to the border with Finland, and the remaining four from Engels, east of Sarátov, in the heart of the European Russia.
The trajectories of the missile substantial increase of Russian troops in the northeast of the front. The operation underlines the renewed Centrality of TU-95 In the Kremlin air strategy, despite being a design that sinks its roots in the Soviet era. We talk about a bomber that He was born In 1950.
Intercontinental scope. But as important as this vestige of the past are the weapons it carries. Each Tu-95msm can load up to eight KH-101 missilesmounted externally and capable of traveling more than 5,000 kilometers, which allows them to attack objectives throughout the Ukrainian territory without abandoning Russian airspace. Empharged with pools, electronic countermeasures and 400 kilos, these missiles have become one of the pillars of the Russian offensive since the beginning of the war.
Although its high cost and the existence of cheaper and smaller alternatives have generated debates about its efficiency, Russia plans to increase its production 600 units per year In 2025, a sign of its commitment to maintain strategic pressure through high precision attacks from long distances.
Tu-95
Acorralado Ukraine. On the other sidewalk, Ukraine faces a new and alarming phase in its aerial defense in the face of the increase in Russian attacks With ballistic missilesthe most feared for their speed, destructive power and difficulty of interception. These projectiles, responsible for having destroyed almost half of the country’s energy capacity, have evidenced again the Patriot systems shortageunique capable of dealing effectively.
Ukraine failed to intercept any of the nine Russian ballistic missiles launched, including two directed against kyiv, despite having deployed there Patriot units. Although the rest of the more than 900 drones and 65 cruise missiles were mostly neutralized, ballistic missiles represent an uncontrollable threat that has caused dozens of dead only so far from 2025, including lethal attacks against Sumy and Kryvyi Rih.
Washington: Yes but no. The change of administration in the United States has meant a drastic turn in military assistance policy. While Trump has verbally condemned the last Russian attacks (he reached Call Putin “Crazy”), he did not offer new aid commitments, and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, was sharp by stating that “we don’t have” more patriots to send.
Instead of direct donations, Washington is pressing its European allies To give Part of its own arsenals, something that does not progress, because no country wants to weaken its internal defense. Raytheon, American manufacturer of the Patriots, has not yet achieved increase your production to meet the post-2022 demand. Under this new paradigm, kyiv believes that the White House would be arranged to sell systemsbut not give them awaywhich forces Ukraine to adapt its strategy to a more transactional relationship: the defense is now negotiated, it is not granted.
West breaks its limits. A few hours ago, and in a significant turn in Western military policy towards war in Ukraine, Germany, together with the United Kingdom, France and the United States, has first eliminated the first time the scope restrictions in the weapons that supplies Kyiv, allowing him to directly attack military objectives within the Russian territory (beyond the 70 km). The announcement was made by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz after The biggest attack With Russian drones that we commented, an offensive that stressed the need to allow Kyiv to respond forcefully.
The news marks a Posture change Regarding previous fear To provoke an escalation with a nuclear power such as Russia, and according to Merz, it establishes an essential difference between the legitimate military purposes of Ukraine and the deliberate attacks against civilians by the Kremlin. With this, they open new strategic possibilities For Ukraine, which until now had acted with containment regarding the use of western armament beyond its borders.
The open doors. Although Merz He did not confirm If Germany will send Taurus missiles long range, that during your political campaign He openly supportedavoided detailing any concrete step so as not to offer informative advantage to the Kremlin. Since his arrival to power just a few weeks ago, the new chancellor has adopted an approach more discreet and pragmaticstating that total transparency can play against national security.
Despite this public reserve, in Berlin the expectation that Merz could soon announce the Armament delivery For greater scope, especially in the context of the imminent visit of the Ukrainian President Zelenski to the German capital. The moment suggests that Germany is preparing the land to take that step, but wants to coordinate it carefully with its allies.
The red line evolves. No doubt, the elimination of scope restrictions represents a rupture with narrative maintained by Western leaders since the beginning of the conflict, when they warned that allowing Ukraine to attack within Russia could be interpreted by Moscow as a direct involvement of NATO In war. However, the wear and tear of the diplomatic front, the repeated negative of Kremlin to participate in significant conversations and the growing brutality of Russian attacks have weakened those old red lines.
For Merz and his allies, deterrence is no longer to limit the Ukrainian response, but to give Kyiv the ability to dissuade to the aggressor itself. Logic, therefore, has changed: allow Ukraine Scope Strategic Objectives Beyond its territory, it is now seen as a way of accelerating an eventual resolution of the conflict, and not as a risk of war expansion.
No peace horizon. Plus: The new western position comes at a time when the expectations of a negotiated exit seem to fade. Merz was especially Critic with Putinaccusing him of interpreting any offer of dialogue as a sign of weakness and being resolved to imprison war indefinitely. The possibility that the Vatican acted as a mediator, promoted by the Italian government, was also Discarded by Russian Foreign Minister Serguéi Lavrov, who described as “little elegant” that the Catholic Church was entrusting between two nations of orthodox tradition.
Faced with this scenario, Merz declared that west already has exhausted All possible diplomatic channels “except to raise the white flag.” His message leaves many doubts: if not even a peace proposal (even the Pope) is accepted, it is time to prepare for a prolonged war, which could last much more than what Ukraine allies want or simply imagine.
Image | ITOLDYA, Marina Lystseva
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