As if it were a Deja Vú2026 has exactly begun same as 2025: with Trump’s insistence on take over Greenland. It happens that it no longer seems like an isolated whim or a rhetorical eccentricity, but rather the convergence of a personal drive, a strategic opportunity perceived as easy, and a high-impact geopolitical calculation. Venezuela It has served to light the fuse.
Greenland as an obsession. After the capture of MaduroTrump confirmed once again that the use of force abroad lacks the legal and judicial brakes that do constrain his domestic action, and that, in the face of clearly outmatched adversaries or allies, the reality is imposed on international law without too many immediate consequences.
Greenland then appears (again) as the perfect prize: a huge, sparsely populated territory, defended by an ally incapable of military resistance and located in an area where Washington can dress territorial ambition in the language of “national security”. The reiteration of the message, the appointment of a specific envoy and the public statements that normalize even the military option indicate that this is not a joke or simple diplomatic pressure, but rather an obsession that grows as Trump’s internal political margin narrows.
The founding paradox of NATO. The central problem is that Greenland belongs to the Kingdom of Denmarka full member of NATO, and any US action against it would place the Alliance before a paradox for which it was not designed. He Article 5, designed to deter external enemies, does not see clearly What happens when the aggressor is the hegemonic member. As has warned Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, in that scenario “everything would stop”: NATO could continue to exist formally, but its credibility would be destroyed.
No one would come to the defense of Greenland against the United States, not only due to a lack of political will, but also due to the absolute material asymmetry between Washington and the rest of the allies. The implicit message is thunder for Europe: security guarantees are no longer automatic, and force is once again in place above the treatyan outcome that directly benefits Russia at the moment of greatest tension since the end of the Cold War.
Critical minerals. The economic and technological argument is supported in mineral wealth that lies under the Greenland ice, the result of an ancient geology that concentrates rare earths and other essential critical minerals for the energy transition. From the 19th century to today, different actors have tried exploit that potential, from Ivittuut cryolite during World War II to contemporary rare earth projects.
However, the enthusiasm collides with a stubborn reality: extracting these resources is extraordinarily expensive, slow and risky. The almost total lack of infrastructure, the dependence on maritime or air transport, the complexity of processing (with minerals often associated with uranium) and restrictive environmental legislation mean that only a minimal fraction of exploration projects become operational mines, usually after more than a decade of investment.
Extra ball. Furthermore, the memory of the environmental damage caused by past exploitations, whose effects are still detectable half a century later in extremely fragile ecosystems, explains why Greenlandic society only contemplates mining. like an opportunity if you actively participate in decision-making and project ownership. The loot exists, but it is neither immediate nor easy, and it certainly does not seem to be able to justify the American strategic urgency on its own.
Hybrid war. The backdrop is a northern Europe increasingly militarizedwhere incidents against submarine cables, gas pipelines and critical infrastructure in the Baltic have normalized the idea of a permanent hybrid war. In this context, Washington observes how Moscow and Beijing test pressure tactics below the threshold of open conflict, while legal and judicial responses appear slow or ineffective.
The explicit willingness of the United States to include military option for Greenland fits into that fait accompli logic: securing key positions before the strategic environment deteriorates further. It is not just about denying advantages to rivals, but about getting ahead of a scenario in which infrastructure, logistics and control of physical nodes are worth more than declarations of principles.
The navigable Arctic and a port. Here a possible decisive derivative emerges. Science has been warning for some time a stage where the Arctic is heading, on a horizon of decades, to be navigable for most of the year. The sustained retreat of sea ice is transforming routes that were once seasonal into viable commercial corridorsdrastically reducing the distances between Asia, Europe and North America.
Today, they capitalize on that advantage especially Russiawith the Northern Maritime Route, and Chinawhich presents itself as a “near-Arctic power” and invests in ports, icebreakers and logistics agreements. For the United States, which is late to this board, Greenland represents the perfect shortcut: an enclave located between the Atlantic and the Arctic, capable of hosting deep-water ports, air bases and logistics nodes from which to offset the Russian-Chinese advantage. Seen this way, more than a mine, Greenland is a port ahead of the world to come, a piece from which to influence the global trade of the 21st century and the control of routes that, for the first time in modern history, cease to be be closed by ice.
A small island, a global change. If you will, the final paradox is that all this pulse revolves around a tiny territory of less than 60,000 inhabitantsone mostly opposed to integrating into the United States and in favor, at best, of a slow and cautious independence. However, its symbolic and strategic value is disproportionate. Greenland condenses the transition to a world where melting ice reconfigures maps, critical minerals redefine dependencies, and alliances are strained to the limit.
For Trump, it is a source of political impact, potential money and demolition of the old order. For Europe, possibly proof that geography prevails again to the law. And for the international system, the warning that the Arctic is no longer a remote edge of the planet, but one of its new centers of gravity.
Image | The National Guard, Roderick Eime
In Xataka | If the question is “what is the next country on the US list” the answer has been on the table for months
In Xataka | So much ice has melted in Greenland that plankton has grown by 40%. It’s not good news
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings